Initial Cash Flow vs Long Term Cash Flow - The real truth

Initial Cash Flow vs Long Term Cash Flow - The real truth

Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes

I have been reading some featured BP bloggers as there is always more stuff to learn in REI it seems. I noticed some real big misconceptions or errors for some expert bp bloggers. Without naming names, I just wanted to point out there is a big difference in cash flow numbers when you have rent appreciation factored in as part of the investment. If you only invest for initial cash flow you might miss the bigger picture to creating bigger pockets.

As I understand it, sometimes cash flow is very low to start and then with rent increases it grows and grows fast depending on demand. So you might start at $100 or $200 per door and then in about 10 years with rent increases you could be at $800+ per door. This is just one example - 300k purchase and renting at $2200 with factoring a 3% annualized rent increase. It could be more if there is some timed turnover as in some locations median rents can go up double digits in one year. (LA was up over 10% last year) 

I guess the moral to the story is take a look at the bigger picture when it comes to cash flow. 2% sounds great in the beginning, then compare that to 1% property that has 3% annual rent increases, while your at it go ahead and add some equity gains.  You will be surprised on how big a difference that becomes 10 years later. For sure this is general as someone in theory could still start very near 2% and still have 3% increases but this is not very common from what I have seen. The typical location for average 2% stuff is not in a historical appreciating area. 

The guy wrote the book on this subject just did a BP podcast. Show 113 I can recommend the podcast for more clarity on the matter. Jay Papasan- The Millionaire Real Estate Investor (co-written with Gary Keller)

Good luck with your cash flow search! 

Thoughts?

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Roy N.Pro Member
Rental Property Investor · Fredericton, New Brunswick · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
11y

@Matt R.

To balance the optimism, you need also account for the year-over-year increase in operating costs in your projections as well. ;-)

When we analyse a property for purchase, we like our numbers to be very conservative, so we will model a property over a period of five years with no rent increase, no appreciation (sometimes even depreciation) and an annual increase of 1-2% in operating costs.   If the property generates our anticipated returns over the period under those parameters, then the deal usually has legs.

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  • Roy N.Pro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Fredericton, New Brunswick · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    @Matt R.

    To balance the optimism, you need also account for the year-over-year increase in operating costs in your projections as well. ;-)

    When we analyse a property for purchase, we like our numbers to be very conservative, so we will model a property over a period of five years with no rent increase, no appreciation (sometimes even depreciation) and an annual increase of 1-2% in operating costs.   If the property generates our anticipated returns over the period under those parameters, then the deal usually has legs.

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    Dang @Matt Rosas. I've been saying this for decades!  Immediate cash flow is for losers.  Or people that are doing investing as their only job and need a paycheck. NOW. Invest for profit over your holding period.

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    @Roy N. I agree Roy. Any modeling should always account for increased expenses and or delayed appreciation.  If the area does not have any historical appreciation one can go ahead and put a zero in that column. 

    @Account Closed

     I agree Bob. For investing in general this seems elementary or at least that is what the millionaires report.

  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    "no appreciation (sometimes even depreciation)"

    Now it hit me! I finally understand why I actually get to "depreciate" my building (thanks IRS :) when in actaully my properties always GO UP in value, being in San Francisco. But in most 2%/50% rule country, their buildings actually DO depreciate, and those write offs may be accurate. For me it's just a way to lower my cost basis and save on taxes now. Pity the successful CA investor who reduced his cost basis to nil and has to sell without doing a 1031 exchange. For me it's never sell or only 1031 exchange (or maybe there is another strategy to avoid a big tax hit?). Even when I'm way old I'll just 1031 ex into some NNN property and treat it like a bond. I'd sure hate to pay taxes on appreciated property with a zero cost basis. (Of course folks, this is a good problem to have.)

  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    @Matt R. - dude, why are you stirring things up again?  That's my turf, damn it...:)

    Perspective - the one thing that separates one-hit wonders from the prolific players. Totally agree with the form and function of your sentiment. Underwrite to the IRR - it requires projection of cash flows and liquidation.

  • Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2014 · 659 posts · 536 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    Dang @Matt Rosas. I've been saying this for decades!  Immediate cash flow is for losers.  Or people that are doing investing as their only job and need a paycheck. NOW. Invest for profit over your holding period.

     I agree with you completely.  Not sure that calling people losers helps you to make your case though.  :)

    Gather up your money and invest for cash flow when you have enough to buy something large or worthwhile.

  • Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2014 · 659 posts · 536 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Amit M.:

    Even when I'm way old I'll just 1031 ex into some NNN property and treat it like a bond. I'd sure hate to pay taxes on appreciated property with a zero cost basis. (Of course folks, this is a good problem to have.)

     I have actually started to do a bit of this recently.  Working on a national restaurant with a 10 year lease right now.  Not with the zero cost basis but still a low basis.  It is the grand plan right?  When you die, your children get an inheritance with a step-up in basis.  If that is still around....

  • Real Estate Investor · Williamson County, TX · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 961 votes
    11y

    If appraisers use rents to determine what a bank should loan on a property, then aren't you overpaying for a property if it doesn't cashflow....or are you arguing to find ways to have as little into a property as possible?  Maybe I don't know what cashflow actually refers to.  But I do know that "alligators" sometimes end up in foreclosure.

    Also, in Texas the property tax man takes a chunk of that 3% annual rental increase.

  • Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2014 · 659 posts · 536 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Marian Smith:

    If appraisers use rents to determine what a bank should loan on a property, then aren't you overpaying for a property if it doesn't cashflow....or are you arguing to find ways to have as little into a property as possible?  Maybe I don't know what cashflow actually refers to.  But I do know that "alligators" sometimes end up in foreclosure.

    Also, in Texas the property tax man takes a chunk of that 3% annual rental increase.

    I bought into units that were 50% vacant for 18.5K/unit.  A hard money loan was used at 100% including a couple of months with no payments and it included money for fixup.  I did not put any of my money into this.  It sold a year later at more than 70k/unit.  This was a 26 unit property.  There were more in this package that had similar results.

  • Investor · Riverside, CA · Member since 2015 · 185 posts · 27 votes
    11y

    This is a good point! I hadn't thought of it like this before.

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Steve Olafson:
    Originally posted by @Amit M.:

    Even when I'm way old I'll just 1031 ex into some NNN property and treat it like a bond. I'd sure hate to pay taxes on appreciated property with a zero cost basis. (Of course folks, this is a good problem to have.)

     I have actually started to do a bit of this recently.  Working on a national restaurant with a 10 year lease right now.  Not with the zero cost basis but still a low basis.  It is the grand plan right?  When you die, your children get an inheritance with a step-up in basis.  If that is still around....

     @Steve Olafson  You are in a community property state.  Title correctly and you can get the 100% step up on the spouses death.  Why do you think Cougars are so attractive now?  ;-)

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Marian Smith:

    If appraisers use rents to determine what a bank should loan on a property, then aren't you overpaying for a property if it doesn't cashflow....or are you arguing to find ways to have as little into a property as possible?  Maybe I don't know what cashflow actually refers to.   

    Cash flow is NOT NOI. NOI is used to value commercial properties. You can have Tons of NOI but negative cash flow. You can have tons of cash flow but no profit.

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    @Ben Leybovich

    That's funny Ben. Even mentioning your name gets 100 responses. My intention is to keep things transparent on BP. It might be the last place on the interweb where one can get real info about REI without the BS or the " I am really trying to sell you something in disguise bias." I just wanted to make sure anyone on BP can get equal opportunity info just in case they were wondering what is actually up.

    It all boils down to my mission statement. Share all I know and learn all I don't. If Ben taught me some of this - that is even better!

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    @Amit M.

    @Steve Olafson

    @Account Closed

    When I can understand half of what you guys are saying I will be in good shape. 

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    @Marian Smith

    I don't know the answer. One side says do this the other says do that. The question becomes what side of the coin do you want be on?

  • Hanford, CA · Member since 2013 · 5k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    We buy houses that appreciate more than inflation. This way we preserve our long term cash flow.

  • Roy N.Pro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Fredericton, New Brunswick · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Amit M.:

    "no appreciation (sometimes even depreciation)"

    Now it hit me!  I finally understand why I actually get to "depreciate" my building (thanks IRS :) when in actaully my properties always GO UP in value, being in San Francisco.  But in most 2%/50% rule country, their buildings actually DO depreciate, and those write offs may be accurate.  

    Amit:

    You've got me a bit out of context there, but it does fit your argument as well.  The reason we model a property with zero appreciation or depreciation is to be certain the property will meet our expectations of return over the long term in the event of either stagnation or a  market correction (for which we are desperately overdue) and to let us know where the exits should be if we determine we should divest a property.

    While our properties have all continued to appreciate, that appreciation is of no consequence until we decide to divest or refinance.

  • Real Estate Investor · Williamson County, TX · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 961 votes
    11y

    Sounds like the discussion is centered on how to profit the most on a RE purchase.  Buying a property that is mismanaged in any number of ways might not cashflow initially,,especially using hard money, but can be very rewarding once the property reaches its full potential.  This involves more time identifying this type of buy (and patience waiting for one), strong negotiation, an accurate eye for returns on rehab, remodel or rezoning or whatever needs to be fixed and an ability to handle the extra risk.  And you'd have to be local and pretty involved.  And you're pretty much guaranteed appreciation and greatly increased cashflow.

    The alternate investment type, current cash-flow, is what a lot of the California SFR investors buy around here. Brand new 1600-2200sq ft homes that rent to cover all costs and any real returns are at tax time. Some of these foreclosed during the bust, presumably due to extended vacancy (which can happen just because your property manager doesn't ensure you're marketing a clean, fresh smelling product) The Austin American Statesman profiled one California investor who let her house go into foreclosure after a washer hose broke, flooded the place, tenants moved out, insurance took a while and the vacancy and insurance deductable took its toll. The investor said she had also underestimated property taxes. I believe she was in a new, still very popular golf course community with 3% tax rate or a hair more plus an $60 monthly HOA. Had she hung on she'd be doing just fine now, well even.

  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2014 · 137 posts · 96 votes
    11y

    My strategy is to work the real estate cycle by buying for appreciation when the market is cratering and near bottoming out, and buying for immediate cash flow (in areas that offer it) when the coastal market is rapidly appreciating and closer to peaking.  There's no point in buying in an appreciation market if all you have to look forward to is 5-6 years of flat or declining prices.  Think 1979-81, 1989-91, 2005-2007... These were terrible times to be buying for appreciation.  

    Instead use those times to load up on cash flowing properties with double-digit CoC returns, so you can still earn while the appreciation markets are correcting. Since cash flow markets don't appreciate much during the up cycle, they don't crash as much during the down cycle. They are also cheaper to get into so you can use the equity from your appreciation market properties to help fund your cash flow acquisitions.

    Once the appreciation market is nearly done crashing you can use the cash flow you stockpiled from your insane CoC returns to fund buying more appreciation properties.

    Rinse and repeat every 10 years or so.

  • Real Estate Agent · LONG BEACH, CA · Member since 2014 · 209 posts · 43 votes
    11y

    @Brent Seehusen

    I love that strategy and one we I preach to clients. We believe in a balanced investment approach. An investment portfolio consisting of 40% cashflow, 40% appreciation, and 20% high risk-high reward investments allows an investor to minimize risk without compromising higher yields. The great investors are the ones who stay ahead of the curve and capitalize on the down-turns. 

    Here in California we are currently in the growth phase of the real estate cycle, and using history as a guide we foresee being in the growth phase for the next 3 years.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    11y

    @Matt R.

      Rents can and do go down as well.. they don't always rise,, ,just like values do not always rise. We can see these wild swings in many markets in the mid west and bigger rust belt cities were what were fabulous neighborhoods with good rents.. the homes or apartments are boarded.. one still has to choose wisely to protect your investment

    Just like many sellers of homes will put an appreciation number to add into the mix with the ROI numbers they are touting and its usually a small number but it puffs the sales brochure and folks will fixate on that higher number.. when any modest gain in values is eaten up in sales costs and usually unexpected cap ex. or extended vacancy

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    @Jay Hinrichs Agreed. 

    That is amazing how nice homes and hoods can go south like that. Some hoods can turn 180 degrees back up but I realize that is probably way more never recover.  So much work and craftsmanship down the tubes ... it is a shame though when I see those ones on Google earth or Youtube.

    I think there are some areas that have never seen a significant rent drop even during the GFC but I imagine those are just the very few select/rare exceptions out there. 

  • Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2015 · 60 posts · 46 votes
    11y

    all depends on 1. Area of the country 2. Where in the real estate cycle you believe the property is, 3. Market inefficiencies as discussed in a blog here,  4. Your own cash position and risk comfort.

    1. I am a SF investor right in the city and in closer in suburbs. Getting anything to even break even now with 30% down is a challenge. So either "investors" are betting on rent appreciation and property appreciation or they have a lot of pride in their portfolio of non performing assets.  I think a fair amount of both depending on point 2.

    2. Where in the cycle.  Buy when fear is rampant and blood is in the street. Buy on the upswing for current cash flow and future cash flow.  Maximize by buying distressed assets in marginal areas at steep discount. It is all about the future.

    At mature stages of the cycle everyone and their brother will be jumping in and following the heard.  Getting in before it's too late, lining up to drop non refundable deposits on spec houses and condos, etc.  Rents are shooting the moon and rent multipliers are even more crazy.  At this stage the only buying I would be doing would be to dump I class c and below assets at extraordinary high prices and 1031 into the nicest thing you can buy. Best area, etc.  It will hold value the best when the market tanks and you will be in good position for next cycle up

    3. Miss managed properties, long term out of state owners who don't ask market rents, poorly market properties, miss comped properties, Christmas deals, etc.  not efficient market=good deal in long term. Ways to push up cash flow or fix n lease or fix n flip.  

    4. If you don't need extra cash flow but are playing in bigger pockets, go for the big opportunity that could profit big time.  

    Sounds like you are doing just great though.  It is all a balance of greed and fear, protection and aggression, advance or hold your position.  Bad to go too extreme but those who do... Probably both a millionaire and bankruptcy at some point in their life. Maybe several times.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    11y

    @John Barnette

      in your number 2 scenario  I would add take profit when it presents it self..

    I did that in Atlanta in 2013... bought in 2011  hedge funds created big run up ... Big for East standards..  then sold the 54 homes we had bought and moved on. Rolled into what we thought were the next shinny object and so far so good.

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