Notes in the age of Corona virus

Notes in the age of Corona virus

Member since 2017 · 7 posts · 2 votes

I've been researching the idea of notes recently (in particular a non-accredited fund or investing in partials) as I'd like a super passive investment option that isn't the stock market. I feel as though the notes market is in an interesting position right now financially - millions of layoffs, with potentially millions of people losing their homes. But at the same time, if the working from home trend continues, the suburban and rural housing markets may not be able to meet demand as people flee crowded cities to a more comfortable work environment. This could be a win for both the performing and non-performing sides of notes.

We just sold our primary home and downsized to the nice unit of our 4-plex, so we have the cash to invest. I'd prefer to invest with the ideology of trying to help people keep their homes. I know that's not always possible, but I'm in healthcare and an admitted helper so I'd like to keep my investing of the same mindset.

What are the thoughts from the pros? What are your projections for the near and semi-near future with investing in notes during this crazy time? Thanks so much for your thoughts!

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Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
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Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
6y

@Lauren Feltz

Since they say we are in a recession but stocks are nearing all time highs and unemployment went opposite what people thought last month, I don’t think anyone knows what the heck is next.

My recommendation to anyone looking to get into any real estate business right now is due diligence on your partner is of greater importance then on an asset. Reason why is a great asset with someone inexperienced during times of turmoil can go sideways pretty quick and having someone who can steer the ship in a storm is very important.

As for partials vs a fund, partials if it’s got equity coverage is a very safe bet. A fund does spread the risk out between many assets and investors but I would tell people they would sleep better at night with a partial over a fund.

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  • Note Investor · Wilsonville, OR · Member since 2010 · 149 posts · 113 votes
    6y

    I know many of us are forging ahead with notes, sensing the same opportunity you suggest. The decision investors must make is are they interested in active investing or passive investing. Then there is the decision on performing or non-performing notes. 

  • Investor · Baltimore County, MD · Member since 2014 · 466 posts · 439 votes
    6y

    Agree with @Cody Cox. I think there is opportunity on the horizon; opportunity to help people and to profit. And several options are available for passive investors (as you touched on, @Lauren Feltz): joint ventures, funds, and partials. I am still in the buying mode but making sure not to over-pay. 

  • Investor · Elkhart, IN · Member since 2014 · 36 posts · 32 votes
    6y

    A question that came to my mind is... What kind of return are you looking for? I believe you are correct in looking at funds and partials. They do the work and you get a return, perfect. 

    This crash, slump, a recession was not caused by real estate failing as was 2008 so I would not expect to see the same institutional failures as last time. There was and is still a housing shortage so most of us are still wondering, what the, and watching the Banks and REITs that got a margin call and waiting to see if they had enough reserve to cover themselves. A lot of us are not expecting to see stabilization in the product for another 2 to 3 months. There was a little drop in price for institutional loans from 97% and 103% of UPB to 82% so it was a sign of insecurity but now it is turning around again as from my sources. For us, we expected to see a 20% loss and it only got to 5% and most of them asked if they could pay extra after they get back on their feet. We even had a few of our smaller loans pay-off.

    Wish You Well   GC

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    6y

    @Lauren Feltz

    Since they say we are in a recession but stocks are nearing all time highs and unemployment went opposite what people thought last month, I don’t think anyone knows what the heck is next.

    My recommendation to anyone looking to get into any real estate business right now is due diligence on your partner is of greater importance then on an asset. Reason why is a great asset with someone inexperienced during times of turmoil can go sideways pretty quick and having someone who can steer the ship in a storm is very important.

    As for partials vs a fund, partials if it’s got equity coverage is a very safe bet. A fund does spread the risk out between many assets and investors but I would tell people they would sleep better at night with a partial over a fund.

    7e investments53 Reviews
  • Member since 2017 · 7 posts · 2 votes
    6y

    @Cody Cox At this point, I'd rather be a passive investor. If going into a fund I would be OK with non-performing if it's handled by a pro, partials of course performing.

    @Gene Chandler I think the return/risk-reward applies in my thought process. I'd be happy to have a lower return for a less risky performing note partial. Heck, my savings account dropped to 1.15% which is ridiculous. I'm not trying to go crazy on returns but at the same time I always try to go by the golden rule of 'don't lose money'.

    @Chris Seveney Thank you for those tidbits! BTW I've been listening to your 'Good Deeds Note Investing' podcast with Gail Greenberg and it's full of great info and examples.

  • Member since 2019 · 26 posts · 12 votes
    6y

    Great advice from everyone involved.  While a partial is a good safe bet, non-performing would give you more opportunity to truly help people through a workout.  So you have to decide between your risk tolerance or altruism.  Perhaps you could do a little of both?  Sounds like you're in a great position either way.

  • Investor · Seatac, WA · Member since 2017 · 134 posts · 121 votes
    6y

    Some of what I've been reading wrt non-performing notes is that we're not really going to see a lot on the market from the current situation until the end of the year, due to how quickly banks are doing write-offs.  Then the timeline is all about how far you are from the source of the notes.

    I'm closing on three notes this week, one non-performing, 2 performing.  I'd be happy to chat about partials as that's a part of my business model.

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