Apple Vs BRRRR - The Showdown

Apple Vs BRRRR - The Showdown

Jake ThorntonPro Member
Camas, WA · Member since 2019 · 44 posts · 36 votes

"In the RED CORNER, Apple stock. In the BLUE CORNER, the BRRRR Strategy. Two investment ideas go into the ring, one comes out. LET'S GET READY TO BRRRRUMBLE!"

So I'm a new investor. I have a couple of Airbnb's in Souther California, but next year I plan to launch full scale into a BRRRR strategy after reading the book by @David Greene, and joining the wonderful community here on BP. I've been gobbling up as much as I can, and attended the great free webinar by @J Scott and @Tarl Yarber yesterday, which was awesome! Thanks guys!

So I as I prepare to take massive action on this strategy next year, I was talking with a friend of mine the other day about it, and he grimaced, and said it sounded dangerous. I talked to him about the idea, whereby you could buy a house say for $50,000 cash, and put $25,000 into it, rent it out, refinance it at the new forced equity value of $100,000 at 25% down, and pull out all your cash and do it again. And again. And again.

To which he replied that he’d bought $50,000 of Apple stock in 2014, and that had now doubled in value, so how was this better than that? I tried to convince him that it was, but I couldn’t quickly punch the numbers to show him.

But today I sat down and did just that. And this is what I found.

All these calculations show an identical BRRRR, bought for $50,000 cash, with $25,000 rehab costs, and refi'd for $100,000. I guestimate that after everything is paid every month (Rent, Management, CapEx and Maintenance) that the property cash flows $500. Of course in real world scenarios any of these numbers could be up or down in either direction, but I'm just using this is a rough base for this equation. I buy three of these houses per year using this technique.

So in year one I buy a property in the first month, and have it rehabbed and rented to a tenant by the start of the third, and refinance it by the end of the fourth.

The cash flow on this first house is $5000 for that first year. (10 months at $500).

The second cash flows $3000 that first year (6 months at $500)

And the third brings me $1000 (2 months at $500)

I keep these for the following four years and combined they cash flow (including this first year) $81,000.

I then repeat this every year for the next four years. Three properties each year, same numbers.

House 4 by year 5 has cash flowed $23,000

House 5 by year 5 has cash flowed $21,000

House 6 by year 5 has cash flowed $19,000

House 7 by year 5 has cash flowed $17,000

House 8 by year 5 has cash flowed $15,000

House 9 by year 5 has cash flowed $13,000

House 10 by year 5 has cash flowed $11,000

House 11 by year 5 has cash flowed $9,000

House 12 by year 5 has cash flowed $7,000

House 13 by year 5 has cash flowed $5,000

House 14 by year 5 has cash flowed $3,000

House 15 by year 5 has cash flowed $1,000

The total cash flow by the end of year five is $225,000.

We’ve already outperformed my friend’s Apple stock. Whoopeee. Math is fun!

"BRRRR has one-two punched Apple, and he's out cold!"

BUT WAIT! THERE’S MORE!

Because the balance on the mortgages on all of these properties has been paid down.

At a 4.5% 30 year loan (again actual numbers may be different, but for the sake of example) of $75,000.

House 1 balance by end of year 5 = $68,368.44

House 2 balance by end of year 5 = $68,858.37

House 3 balance by end of year 5 = $69,341.01

House 4 balance by end of year 5 = $69,816.49

House 5 balance by end of year 5 = $70,284.9

House 6 balance by end of year 5 = 70,746.34

House 7 balance by end of year 5 = $71,200.94

House 8 balance by end of year 5 = $71,648.77

House 9 balance by end of year 5 = $72,089.95

House 10 balance by end of year 5 = $72,524.58

House 11 balance by end of year 5 = $72,952.74

House 12 balance by end of year 5 = $73,374.55

House 13 balance by end of year 5 = $73,790.08

House 14 balance by end of year 5 = $74,199.44

House 15 balance by end of year 5 = $74,602.72

AND the house has gone up in value! At an estimated 2% increase the new home values look like this:

Home 1 value by end of year 5 = $108,243

Home 2 value by end of year 5 = $108,243

Home 3 value by end of year 5 = $108,243

Home 4 value by end of year 5 = $106,120

Home 5 value by end of year 5 = $106,120

Home 6 value by end of year 5 = $106,120

Home 7 value by end of year 5 = $104,040

Home 8 value by end of year 5 = $104,040

Home 9 value by end of year 5 = $104,040

Home 10 value by end of year 5 = $102,000

Home 11 value by end of year 5 = $102,000

Home 12 value by end of year 5 = $102,000

Home 13 value by end of year 5 = $100,000 (No appreciation yet)

Home 14 value by end of year 5 = $100,000

Home 15 value by end of year 5 = $100,000

So the total equity we have now in these houses equals TOTAL HOME VALUE FOR ALL 15 HOUSES ($1,561,212) minus the TOTAL BALANCE ON MORTGAGES ($1,073,799)

$1,561,212 minus $1,073,799 = $487,412

That’s how much we’d make if we sold all those properties at the end of year 5.

Plus we cash flowed $225,000.

So the total at the end of year five is:

$225,000 cash flow + $487,412 equity = $712,412.

Oh and we still have our $75,000 investment nut. And my how that nut has grown.

So $50,000 of Apple stock doubled in that time to $100,000.

But our $75,000 became $787,412. In five years...

Can’t wait to get started with this strategy next year!!

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Most Popular Reply

Member since 2019 · 2 posts · 14 votes
6y

I guess the only argument you can make for Apple is he didn’t lift a finger to double his investment.

See this reply in the discussion

40 Replies

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  • Real Estate Agent · Yonkers, NY · Member since 2015 · 46 posts · 11 votes
    6y

    I have a bunch of stock I was thinking of cashing out to use in RE investing.. bad idea?

  • Contractor · Grand Marais, MN · Member since 2016 · 249 posts · 417 votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:

    Well you kind of picked one of the worlds greatest stocks to compare to run of the mill brrrs. Consider Buffett recently made some major (multi billions) investment in Apple about a year ago or when Apple was at some all time highs, did not blink an eye and added a few more billion and Apple pays dividends. Now we have to put a random rental house vs Apple...I guess you could beat with a lot of work, money and time but why bother vs Apple set it and forget it. 

    Some mentioned what if Apple puts out bad products, you can always click one key and get all your money back quicker than you can take another sip of coffee. 

    How about a cashflow negative house against GE stock?

  • Contractor · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2016 · 55 posts · 21 votes
    6y

    @John Clark

    Dead on. Kansas City just passed Tenant Bill of Rights. It’s being pushed by national organizers and it passed. You mentioned rent control and I’ll mention my line of work: rehab/maintenance. Maintenance is and will continue to get much higher in price. Supply and demand. Average age of a licensed plumber is 57 in our country. Average. Skilled trade shortage will make that “put $25 into it” go away. And stringent tenant laws and ordinances will really drive up costs. It getting harder for the little guys. Lots of big asset companies rolling thru town.

  • Rental Property Investor · Lubbock, TX · Member since 2010 · 55 posts · 17 votes
    6y

    @Jake Thornton

    I think the biggest thing being overlooked here is resources and personal comfort. Your friend doesn't have the real estate investment knowledge that you do, or the comfort in dealing with a hard asset vs. paper asset. Similarly, he likely has a higher understanding and risk tolerance for stocks than you. Instead of looking at one being "better" than the other, you should try to learn each other's methods so you can decide to implement the other's (or not).

    I'd personally choose the real estate every time because I understand it better, I'm more comfortable with the risk, and I'm passionate about it.

    Sounds like you've decided to take this plunge, don't get distracted by someone else's shiny objects. If you're willing to get into this knowing that you may make some mistakes, but will embrace those as learning opportunities, then you're chances of succeeding should be very high. I've probably made at least one mistake with every purchase thus far, but I consider it on the job training and wouldn't change my decision to invest in RE.

  • Rental Property Investor · Marietta, GA · Member since 2018 · 29 posts · 22 votes
    6y

    First - good luck with your decision - respect the ambition and hustle.

    Second - this post represents a massive representation of confirmation bias in real estate investing that is overly present in these forums (but what would you expect on a RE focused site TBF)

    Third - as others mentioned, you are comparing different asset classes against each other using different leverage structures and liquidity profiles - not a very useful endeavor other than to prove you are correct (see point 2 above)

    Fourth - everything and everyone looks like a genius when prices only go up, vacancy rates are low and your properties don't have large unexpected Capex issues or personal issues that would make you become a forced seller

    Fifth - I could just as easily run this with other stocks besides Apple that may have 3x/4x/5x since 2014 and blown away your calcs OR could have levered up my exposure similar to your study and likely outperformed you while be liquid....permutations are endless

    I enjoy the discourse here and your post regardless but there are definitely areas for clarification needed.

  • Real Estate Agent · Murfreesboro, TN · Member since 2019 · 194 posts · 181 votes
    6y

    @Jake Thornton it's a bit of a pie in the sky situation but of course real estate wins. You havent even thought about the tax implicqtions of capital gains on stocks vs any gains on real estate... and then for his stock to have that value he has to actually sell it, youve been gaining the value all the while without having specifically sold the investmwnt.

  • Warsaw, IN · Member since 2017 · 229 posts · 270 votes
    6y

    @Jake Thornton great post. I don’t think anyone has commented yet on market downturns between stocks and RE, and there is more RE criticism than I would expect on this forum. Stocks liquidity allow panicked investors to sell for irrational reasons, whereas RE is less liquid. My premise is that this introduces more systemic risk to paper assets than RE.

    I do agree you should plan on worse expenses for yourself. But dont use those in your comparison without your buddy 🙂 (j/k)

    Real Estate isn’t local, it’s hyper local. Stocks aren’t. When the ridiculously high prices in NY or SF or DFW start to come down, that’s not a 100% correlation downward in every market for RE.

    Investors in stocks in 2008-2009 couldn’t hide from the market correction-didn’t matter where you were or what sector, ( I will note, the astute paper asset investor will likely counter with short selling. Let’s be honest, that’s absent as a holding for the average stock investor, just like RE is absent for that same investor, so it’s a moot point outside of complex stock investors. It’s also done horribly since 2010).

    This difference is the reason i skew to RE almost 10 to 1 in my own portfolio. Keep up the education, good luck on your first deal next year!

  • Investor · Englishtown, NJ · Member since 2014 · 76 posts · 20 votes
    6y

    My reply doesn’t answer to your question. Here is my take on real estate investing.

    It’s great that you understand the versatility of real estate at such young age. Wish I knew that when I was younger. Our first rental  was bought back in 2010. We didn’t know much about real estate. We only knew We can collect rent which would be more then what We would get from bank cd’s.  So our first rental was an experiment. We used combination of our savings and our home equity line of credit to build up our rental units. We currently have 16 rentals. In the last few year, we have done a few flips and several brrrr. Cash from brrrr helped paid our 2 daughters Ivy League education. Now both of our daughters are officially real estate investors. We are very excited for them to get involved with real estate investing at such young age.  My older one bought a rental with me last fall. We renovated and rented for $2500 per month.  She just got another offer accept last week as her 2nd rental. This one she is on her own. My younger daughter bought a rental with my husband earlier this year. It was a short sale. We renovated and rented out for $2400 per month. Both girls have much better knowledge of how real estate is so versatile and how this is going to help them create financial independence. I personally like re investing then stock market.  To sum it up, I don’t know much about stock markets. All I know is very subjective.  We did loose significant amount during tech bust. That  was the reason I suggested to my husband,  let’s give real estate a try. 

    Cheers to  🏡 

  • Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2019 · 88 posts · 55 votes
    6y

    @John Morgan I'm also an investor in DFW. You're right it's super competitive. Losts of people from California buying up property.

  • Member since 2019 · 26 posts · 5 votes
    6y

    @Mike Miller

    Right!

  • Developer · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Trent Chance:

    @Jake Thornton love it :) @Michael Ealy taught me to only do a deal if it cash flows under less than ideal scenarios that way you can ride out the storm through tough markets when others lose their shirt.

    Thanks for the mention Trent.

    Apple stock has the following advantages vs. BRRR:

    1. It's professionally managed by one of the best leadership teams in the world (whereas your houses are being managed - specially in the beginning - by YOU)

    2. It's totally passive (whereas BRRR is a lot of work: finding the deal, getting financing, renovating it or coordinating the rehab, etc)

    3. BRRR can be negative cashflow when you lose a tenant or you have unexpected big repair item (unlikely that Apple will ask their investors for money when they have an unexpected expenses)

    Having said the above, BRRR's advantages vs. Apple stock are:

    1. You're in control, not the stock market, not the trade war with China - everything rises and falls with YOU

    2. You get the rental income with a lower tax rate (even zero taxes) due to depreciation (you can't get depreciation write off from dividends from Apple stock)

    3. Because of leverage, loan paydown, cashflow and depreciation, you can, in theory make more money than the equivalent investment in Apple stock but it depends on YOUR ability to find the right deal, the ability to manage the renovation and the leasing and ability to get financing

    So my advice: get BOTH paper assets like stocks and real estate. The rich have both, although, they tend to focus on one more than the other.

    Of course, we real estate investors love real estate.

    Lastly, as Trent mentioned, you have to invest conservatively. You make money when you buy - so take the time to find good deals...but also, you need to get trained on property management or at least buy the property cheap enough you can afford to pay for PM.

  • Rental Property Investor · Sammamish, WA · Member since 2011 · 9 posts · 3 votes
    6y

    I love RE, but there are several flaws in the original post:

    1. You are comparing leveraged RE returns against an un-leveraged return on a stock. Imagine if your friend used the 50K to purchase long call options on AAPL - he could easily be seeing returns much greater than you mentioned in the post.

    2. Is the $500 per month cashflow accounting for vacancies, repairs, capEx etc? If so, you really have to a pro-investor to have access to that kind of deals consistently year-after-year. Almost anyone can buy an AAPL stock.

    3. How much of your time is invested in the executing the BRRR strategy? One could buy an AAPL stock in a few secs, and invested their remaining time on their day jobs earning their hourly rate. The calculations need to account for that.

    4. It looks like AAPL returned 145% in the last 5 years which is about the same as the returns of a technology sector ETF over the same period. AMZN returned 400% and even MSFT returned 220% over the same period. In other words, you picked a stock with an average performance to compare against a series of home-run BRRR investments.

    IMO, one can make money in both asset classes if they know what they're doing. I like RE primarily because: the illiquidity factor forces me to be a long-term investor, I can invest with reasonable leverage, and I'm in control of the business to some extent. 

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Matt Groth:
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:

    Well you kind of picked one of the worlds greatest stocks to compare to run of the mill brrrs. Consider Buffett recently made some major (multi billions) investment in Apple about a year ago or when Apple was at some all time highs, did not blink an eye and added a few more billion and Apple pays dividends. Now we have to put a random rental house vs Apple...I guess you could beat with a lot of work, money and time but why bother vs Apple set it and forget it. 

    Some mentioned what if Apple puts out bad products, you can always click one key and get all your money back quicker than you can take another sip of coffee. 

    How about a cashflow negative house against GE stock?

    That sounds like closer to a semi equal comparison, but idk GE that well to make any real wise determination.  

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Anthony Espinal:

    I have a bunch of stock I was thinking of cashing out to use in RE investing.. bad idea?

    How have your stocks been going? How much free time do you have to work REI? On average if this is not a very well thought out plan as in better than an IVY league MBA can manage, be very careful trading apple stock for run of the mill rentals. Perhaps check out some well positioned REITs is a viable option too and gain some RE exposure there first. Can a REI full timer beat apple? absolutely, but do they want to put in the hours/moneyrisk up to do that? Not always.

  • Investor · Naples, FL · Member since 2016 · 256 posts · 75 votes
    6y

    A better comparasion is buying a stock and selling covered calls on it to reduce your cost basis or perhaps selling credit 

    put spreads when bullish on a stock or index.

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