Tampa SFR — $387/mo cash flow, 78/100 ML score. Am I missing anything?

Question

Hey BP community running numbers on a Tampa deal and would love experienced eyes before I make an offer.

Property: 3BR/2BA single family, Tampa FL 33601

Purchase price: $350,000

Down: 20% ($70,000)

Rate: 7.25%, 30yr fixed

Monthly rent: $2,200

Expenses: Tax $350 | Insurance $120 | Maintenance $150 | Mgmt 10%

Vacancy: 5%

The numbers:

Monthly cash flow: $387/mo

Cash-on-cash: 6.6%

Cap rate: 5.8%

1% rule: 0.63% (doesn't pass but Tampa rents are compressed)

Annual NOI: $14,820

What I like: solid cash flow, strong rental demand in Tampa, good school district nearby.

What concerns me: built 1978, roof is 14 years old, 1% rule doesn't pass. Seller is motivated — came down $25k already.

Would you make an offer? And at what price does this become a strong buy for you?

Chris Seveney · Answer

Your $280,000 mortgage years at 7 1/4 and insurance you're putting in there is over $2300 a month that does not include vacancy, etc.. Please recheck your expenses and mortgage payment

Drew Sygit · Answer

What will the taxes adjust to after you buy it?

Where did you get the insurance quote as it seems vey low.

Jorge Vazquez · Answer

From the deals we look at all the time in Tampa, this one feels kind of on the low end honestly. First thing I’d check is are you including full property management, because if not that $387 is going to shrink fast. The numbers don’t fully add up to me either, so I’d double check how you’re calculating cap rate and NOI and make sure you’re including real maintenance, vacancy, and future stuff like that 14 year old roof. At best it’s an okay deal, not great. For comparison we’re doing deals around $220K all in (including repairs) that rents for about $2K, which is almost double the performance, so this just feels a little overpriced. I’d tighten your numbers and ask yourself if something goes wrong does this still work, and if not it’s probably too thin. This is the kind of deal we come across every day, so happy to compare notes and ideas if you want.

Amber Stout · Answer

Hi Mason, taxes seem low and I'd estimate them to be around $440/month / insurance seems low. If you're concerned about the roof, you could negotiate credits or for a new roof to be put on ahead of closing. I'm coming up with about $2,500 as your monthly payment without maintenance, management, and vacancy. One way to make deals work in this market is with having the seller pay for a lower rate which directly impacts your monthly payment so that strategy can help when analyzing rentals.

Alacia Mahnken · Answer

OP: I think something went wrong when you calculated you P&I. Once you knew that # was 1910/mo, and your market rent per your research was 2200/mo, you could see your taxes alone take out your cash flow. Hiromi did a wonderful job breaking down the numbers for you. Use her guideline to work through every property like that! Persistence wins! Keep running the numbers.

Hiromi Gonzalez · Answer

Everyone's already flagged the expenses, so I'll just show you what the numbers look like once you correct them.

Corrected expenses (monthly):

• Property tax: ~$420 (FL reassesses on sale : $350K × ~1.4%)
• Insurance: ~$275 (1978 build in Tampa, windstorm exposure : $120 isn't happening)
• Maintenance: $150 (keeping yours)
• CapEx reserve: $150 (1978 build + 14yr roof : you need this line item)
• Management: $220 (10%, same as yours)
• Vacancy: $110 (5%, same as yours)

Quick note: I don't have Florida-specific tax and insurance dialed in tight, these are estimates based on what others flagged above and general FL ranges. The exact numbers might shift, but the direction won't.

Corrected cash flow:

• Rent: $2,200
• Vacancy: -$110
• Operating expenses: -$1,215
• NOI: $875/mo
• P&I on $280K at 7.25%: -$1,910
• Cash flow: -$1,035/mo

That's not a $387 positive, it's a $1,035 negative. Roughly $12,400/yr out of pocket.

What would need to change to break even at $0/mo cash flow:

• Rent would need to hit ~$3,125/mo (not realistic for a Tampa 3/2), OR
• Purchase price would need to drop to ~$160K so the P&I fits inside the NOI

To hit your original $387/mo target you'd need the price around $142K or rent around $3,500. Neither is in the universe for this property.

The deal doesn't pencil. The seller coming down $25K doesn't change that, you'd need them to come down another $190K. I'd pass and keep looking.

Derek Hollis · Answer

Agent in Nashville, work primarily with investors. The 78/100 score is the part I'd actually be most worried about. You've got a deal where the numbers only pencil if you trust your inputs, and your inputs are mostly guesses. The score is just laundering those guesses into a confidence number.

Before any client of mine writes an offer, we pull the actual tax assessment from the county site and check the reassessment policy after a sale. Then I get a real insurance quote from a broker, not an estimate. We cross-check the rent against closed lease comps in the MLS, not what aggregators pull from active listings, especially for a 1978 build with a 14-year-old roof. I don't operate in Florida, but the windstorm and flood pricing down there is brutal right now, and a $120 line item doesn't smell right. None of that takes more than an hour.

The other thing I'd ask: why did the seller already come down $25k? That's not a courtesy. Either the property's been sitting because of something the listing isn't telling you, or an inspection issue came up with a previous buyer. I'd want to know which before I anchored to the current price as fair value.

Mick Pristas · Answer

The zip code is wrong, but I would pass.

Buy something that needs a little work and renovate it and create the equity then re-capture your funds. I can help with if needed

Tampa SFR — $387/mo cash flow, 78/100 ML score. Am I missing anything?

Tampa SFR — $387/mo cash flow, 78/100 ML score. Am I missing anything?

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