Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions.
However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.
Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct.
The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash. The reason is simple, equity.
Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford. We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes. When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity. They couldn't sell and get out. We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.
Recently, prices have been surging. Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted. Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value. We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers. Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X. Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering. They had to make up the difference with cash. Those people have a ton of equity in their homes. If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed.
There is no house of cards here to come tumbling down.
Well the other choice would be Northern New Mexico actually - Taos - so not far from the suggestion. Arizona isn't really on my radar, I'd probably look at Charleston before that. Reality is though my wife and I would probably use the second home if ski resorts. Most beach areas we'd just rent and with skiing we aren't going to be snowbirds of any type :)
So which is it you are advocating for?
Not advocating anything in particular. I expect inflation to continue, and couple with a recession, maybe even a bad one. This creates the worst of worlds for everything...except the well-positioned who see it coming.
If inflation continues, it's Fed/gov. that's losing money, then renter, landlord would feel the last effect of inflation.
The Fed has to pay 4.5% interest while covering our super cheap mortgage of 2.5% for 30 years LOL.
Well the other choice would be Northern New Mexico actually - Taos - so not far from the suggestion. Arizona isn't really on my radar, I'd probably look at Charleston before that. Reality is though my wife and I would probably use the second home if ski resorts. Most beach areas we'd just rent and with skiing we aren't going to be snowbirds of any type :)
Check out Flagstaff and surrounding areas just for fun sometime. Good skiing at 10,000 feet, and so much to do within a half days drive....4 corners/Monument Valley/Anasazi/ Grand Canyon/ Petrified Nat Park/Etc
Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening. Saudis have reached out to S.A. and expressed interest in joining BRICS, and Ramaphosa indicated this could be something happening and decided within next 12 mnths.
This is a MAJOR shift. It would put BRICS in control of the vast majority of world energy market. And now imagine pressing ALL oil exchanges in Rubel, all Saudi oil sales in Ruble..... Yeah, this is a legitimate threat to USD position as world reserve currency.
Sure you wanna sit on the dollar now? No thanks, this presses the immediate NEED to get all leveraged into assets ASAP. Clock is now ticking on this now.
For those who don't comprehend, when a currency is in threat of being debased, or just going worthless, assets skyrocket and provide the only protection because if USD goes to nothing, assets like housing will hold a value, regardless of the payment means, be it dollars or cows and chickens. BUT having bonds, that say you get repaid in dollars, yeah, NO THANKS. I just dumped all bond positions with this development.
All it takes is Saudis and then 1 or 2 OPEC and forcing transactions in Ruble and it's done, the USD will be dethroned and over as world reserve. It won't happen gradually or slowly, once it's a real threat of it leaving that placement, ALL will dump it, making it a self fulfilling prophecy. The last thing you want is to be into the USD in any way shape or form anywhere when that event starts happening.
@James Hamling: Your comment: "It would put BRICS in control of the vast majority of world energy market. And now imagine pressing ALL oil exchanges in Rubel, all Saudi oil sales in Ruble..... Yeah, this is a legitimate threat to USD position as world reserve currency."
Yes, it would challenge the USAs world reserve currency position but that's a good thing.
We have entered wars and started numerous other wars to preserve that status. We have been profligate with that status. We have amassed debt the world has never seen before because of that status and the arrogance that goes with it. We are in our current precarious position because of that status. Our grandchildren will still be paying interest on our debt because of that status.
We are oil independent when allowed to be by the administration and have no need for the petro dollar, other than to stick our nose into other people's business.
Housing prices go up and interest rates go down, life becomes more affordable when we lose that status.
You will own more properties when we lose that status and it will be more profitable for you.
Currently it's like continually hitting your thumb with a hammer and someone asks why are you doing that, with your answer being "because it feels so good when I stop".
This comment is more philosophy then anything else. And know what, yeah, a lot of truth to it, there is, the U.S. Empire is built upon a heck of a pile of ashes. But here is the thing, your leaving out any mention of the alternative. I can tell you have never traveled outside the U.S. because only total ignorance of the rest of the world could lend to such a thought direction. For all the faults and all the misdeeds of the U.S., the good is so monumental that yes, it is worth it. It is. Every lie, war, destruction, worth it.
I know people, closely, who lived in the USSR, it was every horror ever said and more. In China they slaughtered tens of millions for the crime of being of a different political opinion, or just simply a relative of such person. I have been to 2nd and 3rd world nations, you can't imagine what a day in the life is like there. For every fault and failing, the worst of the U.S. is better then the best day for many in these places. For every horror the U.S. has undertook 1,000 horrors have been prevented or ended.
The world is not so simple as good guys on one side and bad guys on the other, and all follow rules of the game. It's just not that simple. Yes, sometimes only evil can stop evil, that is reality. And the end of the U.S. will usher in an evil the likes of which yourself and people like you are not capable of even comprehending. I have seen things that would make your toes curl, and in those areas it was just a normal happening.
Your so convinced the U.S. is so bad and the world would be better off without it, ok, prove it, GO to those areas now without it, see how "great" it is now. Africa is full of these places, pick any.
I can make $ in any environment, I am not such a narcissist as to watch the world burn and clap my hands at all the $ I can make off the ashes.
Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening. Saudis have reached out to S.A. and expressed interest in joining BRICS, and Ramaphosa indicated this could be something happening and decided within next 12 mnths.
Hell yeah, this is James Bond territory obviously, beyond my pay grade LOL
I bet US diplomatic missions in many countries already visited the Ministerial office, threatening not to buy Russian oil.
Oh btw, Rubble is now pegged to Gold; so my deep suspicion this is pre-planned by Russia is making more sense.
Beyond doubt 100% strategized planned actions by Rus, and they are winning at it big time. And yes, U.S. has made significant attempts at reaching out to Saudis, the responses have been nothing short of a big F-U to the U.S..
Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening. Saudis have reached out to S.A. and expressed interest in joining BRICS, and Ramaphosa indicated this could be something happening and decided within next 12 mnths.
Hell yeah, this is James Bond territory obviously, beyond my pay grade LOL
I bet US diplomatic missions in many countries already visited the Ministerial office, threatening not to buy Russian oil.
Oh btw, Rubble is now pegged to Gold; so my deep suspicion this is pre-planned by Russia is making more sense.
Beyond doubt 100% strategized planned actions by Rus, and they are winning at it big time. And yes, U.S. has made significant attempts at reaching out to Saudis, the responses have been nothing short of a big F-U to the U.S..
Russia, China, and Middle East will not waste the golden opportunity that they have with the USA and Western Europe right now.
But I mean atleast the White House is telling them “there will be consequences”
Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening. Saudis have reached out to S.A. and expressed interest in joining BRICS, and Ramaphosa indicated this could be something happening and decided within next 12 mnths.
@James Hamling: Your comment: "It would put BRICS in control of the vast majority of world energy market. And now imagine pressing ALL oil exchanges in Rubel, all Saudi oil sales in Ruble..... Yeah, this is a legitimate threat to USD position as world reserve currency."
Yes, it would challenge the USAs world reserve currency position but that's a good thing.
That's quite a leap from my bashing war mongering to accusing me of hating the USA. ;-)
Actually, I've travelled the Soviet Block including Russia and I have friends in Moscow and Eastern Europe and Mexico for that matter.
Anyway, the point is, as I'm sure you already know, the idea behind the petrol dollar was to provide us with a steady flow of oil, cheaply. It backfired and anyone who doesn't see the connection needs to follow the money.
If we wanted to we could help Haiti who is next door, crawl out of the abyss but they don't have oil, so we don't.
We could help Chicago, which is worse off than Haiti, we could help Detorit, we could help St. Louis, we could help Memphis, we could help New Orleans and so on.
Below is where those taxes you pay go. Are we building these to protect Staten Island or something? When will you say we should balance our budget back to encouraging home buying for people in the USA ?
The first year of operation on an aircraft carrier costs $28,000,000,000 - which is 93,350 new $300,000 homes and we have 11 aircraft carriers. All to protect our access (control) of oil around the world. If you control the oil, you control the world. Ask Hitler why he teamed up with the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia in WWII. To control the oil of the middle east. That's not what I want the USA to be. Remember, Hitler was voted in. He didn't take over Germany by force. He promised the people food and comfort in a bad tinme in history. History repeats.
Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening. Saudis have reached out to S.A. and expressed interest in joining BRICS, and Ramaphosa indicated this could be something happening and decided within next 12 mnths.
This is a MAJOR shift. It would put BRICS in control of the vast majority of world energy market. And now imagine pressing ALL oil exchanges in Rubel, all Saudi oil sales in Ruble..... Yeah, this is a legitimate threat to USD position as world reserve currency.
Sure you wanna sit on the dollar now? No thanks, this presses the immediate NEED to get all leveraged into assets ASAP. Clock is now ticking on this now.
For those who don't comprehend, when a currency is in threat of being debased, or just going worthless, assets skyrocket and provide the only protection because if USD goes to nothing, assets like housing will hold a value, regardless of the payment means, be it dollars or cows and chickens. BUT having bonds, that say you get repaid in dollars, yeah, NO THANKS. I just dumped all bond positions with this development.
All it takes is Saudis and then 1 or 2 OPEC and forcing transactions in Ruble and it's done, the USD will be dethroned and over as world reserve. It won't happen gradually or slowly, once it's a real threat of it leaving that placement, ALL will dump it, making it a self fulfilling prophecy. The last thing you want is to be into the USD in any way shape or form anywhere when that event starts happening.
@James Hamling: Your comment: "It would put BRICS in control of the vast majority of world energy market. And now imagine pressing ALL oil exchanges in Rubel, all Saudi oil sales in Ruble..... Yeah, this is a legitimate threat to USD position as world reserve currency."
Yes, it would challenge the USAs world reserve currency position but that's a good thing.
We have entered wars and started numerous other wars to preserve that status. We have been profligate with that status. We have amassed debt the world has never seen before because of that status and the arrogance that goes with it. We are in our current precarious position because of that status. Our grandchildren will still be paying interest on our debt because of that status.
We are oil independent when allowed to be by the administration and have no need for the petro dollar, other than to stick our nose into other people's business.
Housing prices go up and interest rates go down, life becomes more affordable when we lose that status.
You will own more properties when we lose that status and it will be more profitable for you.
Currently it's like continually hitting your thumb with a hammer and someone asks why are you doing that, with your answer being "because it feels so good when I stop".
This comment is more philosophy then anything else. And know what, yeah, a lot of truth to it, there is, the U.S. Empire is built upon a heck of a pile of ashes. But here is the thing, your leaving out any mention of the alternative. I can tell you have never traveled outside the U.S. because only total ignorance of the rest of the world could lend to such a thought direction. For all the faults and all the misdeeds of the U.S., the good is so monumental that yes, it is worth it. It is. Every lie, war, destruction, worth it.
I know people, closely, who lived in the USSR, it was every horror ever said and more. In China they slaughtered tens of millions for the crime of being of a different political opinion, or just simply a relative of such person. I have been to 2nd and 3rd world nations, you can't imagine what a day in the life is like there. For every fault and failing, the worst of the U.S. is better then the best day for many in these places. For every horror the U.S. has undertook 1,000 horrors have been prevented or ended.
The world is not so simple as good guys on one side and bad guys on the other, and all follow rules of the game. It's just not that simple. Yes, sometimes only evil can stop evil, that is reality. And the end of the U.S. will usher in an evil the likes of which yourself and people like you are not capable of even comprehending. I have seen things that would make your toes curl, and in those areas it was just a normal happening.
Your so convinced the U.S. is so bad and the world would be better off without it, ok, prove it, GO to those areas now without it, see how "great" it is now. Africa is full of these places, pick any.
I can make $ in any environment, I am not such a narcissist as to watch the world burn and clap my hands at all the $ I can make off the ashes.



The reality is the true enemies who want to dethrone the dollar, don’t care about the stuff you mention (helping countries). Those weapons are the reason it hasn’t happened already. Read history books. Yes, the usa helps other countries when it benefits the USA. Everyone born in the USA has dollar privilege, I won’t apologize for it, I’ll enjoy the ride until it’s gone, but I’ll never apologize, because I’d rather benefit from it, and whoever dethrones the dollar and the world, will be worse for the rest of the world, they have other objectives.
And all those us cities you mention, have everything they need to be prosperous. They choose not to. Same can’t be said for a lot of countries unfortunately.
Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening.
My mistake, I thought y'all understood inflation, national debt, cause and effect, oil imports, macro economics, that sort of thing. But, no matter, our nice little conversation isn't going to change minds. At least not the minds of those making those decisions to deflate the dollar. Here is our defense budget and following is what it does to the dollar and your ability to buy houses.
https://usdebtclock.org/ Click to see National Debt and a bunch of other things that impact your real estate investing
Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening.
My mistake, I thought y'all understood inflation, national debt, cause and effect, oil imports, macro economics, that sort of thing. But, no matter, our nice little conversation isn't going to change minds. At least not the minds of those making those decisions to deflate the dollar. Here is our defense budget and following is what it does to the dollar and your ability to buy houses.
https://usdebtclock.org/ Click to see National Debt and a bunch of other things that impact your real estate investing
Despite all that debt, USD are still cherished by the rest of the world, amazing isn’t it? Dollars well spent to keep the charade running as long as it has, hopefully it lasts my lifetime and we have 200 tril national debt. No difference between 30 tril and 900 tril, it’s not going to be paid off anyway.
Well @Carlos Ptriawan, it's now looking like the "doomsday" scenario I mentioned, is actually possibly happening.
My mistake, I thought y'all understood inflation, national debt, cause and effect, oil imports, macro economics, that sort of thing. But, no matter, our nice little conversation isn't going to change minds. At least not the minds of those making those decisions to deflate the dollar. Here is our defense budget and following is what it does to the dollar and your ability to buy houses.
https://usdebtclock.org/ Click to see National Debt and a bunch of other things that impact your real estate investing
Despite all that debt, USD are still cherished by the rest of the world, amazing isn’t it? Dollars well spent to keep the charade running as long as it has, hopefully it lasts my lifetime and we have 200 tril national debt. No difference between 30 tril and 900 tril, it’s not going to be paid off anyway.
2 stats I just saw released....not that they mean anything, just throwing more fuel on the fire...
The number of homes sold in September plunged 25% year-over-year to 478,593
The number of new home listings fell 22% compared to last year to 503,156.
So inventory is dropping like predicted? And people are sitting tight also like predicted. Sounds about right.
Well the other choice would be Northern New Mexico actually - Taos - so not far from the suggestion. Arizona isn't really on my radar, I'd probably look at Charleston before that. Reality is though my wife and I would probably use the second home if ski resorts. Most beach areas we'd just rent and with skiing we aren't going to be snowbirds of any type :)
Well the other choice would be Northern New Mexico actually - Taos - so not far from the suggestion. Arizona isn't really on my radar, I'd probably look at Charleston before that. Reality is though my wife and I would probably use the second home if ski resorts. Most beach areas we'd just rent and with skiing we aren't going to be snowbirds of any type :)
As to the inventory you need to start looking outside of DFW. Look nationally. Lot o f places are just stagnating. And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass menawhile we are 6.5% median home adjustment price. I think it will go higher but it's hard to see much beyond 12% median. Lot of this depends on the Fed thoguh.
As to Taos if you notice the comment, second home, only for skiing: so live there about 4 months a year. All I want is skiing which is sort of what you said it was good for. Taos would be 4th though on the list.
Dollar is still wanted globally because it's the only currency that has strong liquidity and The gov. that manages the currency, is a pretty stable government/nation (until lately haha).
What would happen next is perhaps more country will use their own local currency for bilateral purchase agreements.
AT this time even QT is not really 100% QT. The bond is purchased by Treasury to increase liquidity after the Japs and British dumping the bonds.
The Fed just has to make sure the Treasury is not collapsing, which means they have to pivot immediately.
From the Fed Evans comment yesterday he said he's having trouble communicating that he wants to stop the rate hikes.
As to the inventory you need to start looking outside of DFW. Look nationally. Lot o f places are just stagnating. And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass menawhile we are 6.5% median home adjustment price. I think it will go higher but it's hard to see much beyond 12% median. Lot of this depends on the Fed thoguh.
Yeah, If MoM new listing increased + active inventory increased MoM more than 5% = price decrease. Vice versa.
Btw whoever simulated these changes in Fed office, is extremely genius. LOL
They will send James Bond or Rambo before that happen.
We need to check the level of active inventory and new liting and also the current median home price, if median home price is entering sigma 0 deviation , price is usually just flattening just like the magic that just happened in CA market.
It's very algo driven now lol
Is that all? Lol. I'd rather spend even more. We don't need homes, we need a safe country (and hence, world). Without that NOTHING else matters. FUnny some people never get this.
And to suggest that the sole reason for the US Military is to serve oil interests is just silly.....C'mon, man...
Is that all? Lol. I'd rather spend even more. We don't need homes, we need a safe country (and hence, world). Without that NOTHING else matters. FUnny some people never get this.
And to suggest that the sole reason for the US Military is to serve oil interests is just silly.....C'mon, man...
Yea since 2500 years ago, any nation that would like to rule on planet earth, shall have the most sophisticated technology in naval and sea.
Adding aviation also :)
Is that all? Lol. I'd rather spend even more. We don't need homes, we need a safe country (and hence, world). Without that NOTHING else matters. FUnny some people never get this.
And to suggest that the sole reason for the US Military is to serve oil interests is just silly.....C'mon, man...
Yea since 2500 years ago, any nation that would like to rule on planet earth, shall have the most sophisticated technology in naval and sea.
Adding aviation also :)
Amen, brother.... Yeah look at the Brits a few hundred years ago....Of course there was there little interference with the Saud tribe... :-)
What data do you have to support this claim?
I am actively looking for properties in N AZ to take advantage of the approaching pro-buyer environment. I notice a lot of a) more time on market, and b) price drops of approx 10-15%.
Just my .02 of course....
I am actively looking for properties in N AZ to take advantage of the approaching pro-buyer environment. I notice a lot of a) more time on market, and b) price drops of approx 10-15%.
Just my .02 of course....