Housing crash deniers ???

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Housing crash deniers ???

Greg R.
Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes

Unfortunately I've been away for a few months while taking care of some personal matters, so I haven't been able to keep up on discussions. 

However, several months ago there were ample amount of folks here insisting that a market crash/ correction was impossible and that prices would only continue to increase.

Curious if there are still people out there who feel this way? If so, I'd love to see some data that supports your view that the market isn't going to crash/ correct. 

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Greg ScottPro Member
Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes
4y

The market may correct, but I firmly believe there won't be a crash.  The reason is simple, equity.

Before 2008 people with no income could get liars loans and buy much more real estate than they could afford.  We heard stories of cleaning ladies buying multiple million dollar homes.  When home prices starting falling, the whole thing collapses like a house of cards because nobody had any equity.  They couldn't sell and get out.  We had cascading foreclosures creating a downward spiral.

Recently, prices have been surging.  Given the laws passed after the Great Recession, appraisals and lending is highly restricted.  Appraisals have not been keeping up with prices and lenders won't lend above appraised value.  We sold a house in 2021 and in one day had 20 offers.  Several of them had acceleration clauses stating they would pay more than anyone else up to $X.  Both of them waived any financing contingency because they KNEW the house wouldn't appraise for what they were offering.  They had to make up the difference with cash.  Those people have a ton of equity in their homes.  If they had to sell, they might take a haircut, but they aren't going to get foreclosed. 

There is no  house of cards here to come tumbling down.

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  • Michael Wooldridge
    Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 

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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

    I am actively looking for properties in N AZ to take advantage of the approaching pro-buyer environment. I notice a lot of a) more time on market, and b) price drops of approx 10-15%.

    Just my .02 of course....

    Yup, same in my neck of the woods. A vast majority of people I talk to are seeing the same thing (several different states and markets). That's the problem with all the "data" that's out there, it's usually 1-3 months behind. It is not capturing what's happening in the market in real-time. 

     unless you use Zillow

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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 


     which zip code that you're discussing? let me check 

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  • Greg R.
    OP
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 

    I haven't seen any data suggesting that DFW & Cali price decreases are slowing down. I'm seeing the exact opposite. 
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  • Michael Wooldridge
    Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 


     which zip code that you're discussing? let me check 


    75034 shoudl be a good one. Would be nice to look at it since March of this year. 
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  • Michael Wooldridge
    Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 

    I haven't seen any data suggesting that DFW & Cali price decreases are slowing down. I'm seeing the exact opposite. 

     Carlos posted something similar. But sure looks like San Jose isn't slowing down..... 

    Austin too: 

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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass


     Just take a look at it, DFW is  on the deceleration phase. The faster it has to drop 5-6% the better it is, by then the price would adjust to Jan Feb 2022 level. We have to respect the Fed, by reducing the price there.

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  • Account Closed
    Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 

    I haven't seen any data suggesting that DFW & Cali price decreases are slowing down. I'm seeing the exact opposite. 

     This is the Top 10 losing value


    "Following are the cities where housing markets are cooling fastest."

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

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  • Michael Wooldridge
    Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass


     Just take a look at it, DFW is  on the deceleration phase. The faster it has to drop 5-6% the better it is, by then the price would adjust to Jan Feb 2022 level. We have to respect the Fed, by reducing the price there.


     Yep and it's almost like he's ignoring how flat August/September got in all those areas. And when you compare it to 2021.... Ahh well if October stays in line it will show then. 

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  • Greg R.
    OP
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 

    I haven't seen any data suggesting that DFW & Cali price decreases are slowing down. I'm seeing the exact opposite. 

     This is the Top 10 losing value


    "Following are the cities where housing markets are cooling fastest."

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

    You're missing DFW. Look at peak of the bubble prices in DFW from May compared to Sep data. it's an 18% decrease. 
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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 

    I haven't seen any data suggesting that DFW & Cali price decreases are slowing down. I'm seeing the exact opposite. 

     Carlos posted something similar. But sure looks like San Jose isn't slowing down..... 


     San Jose / San Francisco market is always the fastest market to catch up with trends, that happened during GFC too. This market is already stabilizing.

    But you have market like Texas and Nevada that would take time for the market there to find bottom.

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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:You're missing DFW. Look at peak of the bubble prices in DFW from May compared to Sep data. it's an 18% decrease. 

     I see your point, the active inventory in your market is increasing by 4%  MoM ; while nationwide is stabilizing at 2% MoM. 
    In my view price has to drop 5%, please ask your seller to drop the price to a more realistic price.

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  • Michael Wooldridge
    Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 

    I haven't seen any data suggesting that DFW & Cali price decreases are slowing down. I'm seeing the exact opposite. 

     This is the Top 10 losing value


    "Following are the cities where housing markets are cooling fastest."

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

    You're missing DFW. Look at peak of the bubble prices in DFW from May compared to Sep data. it's an 18% decrease. 

    i still say May is a deviation. Even for that market it was an insane jump and I showed that in the tables on previous page. All that aside look at August and September. Flatlining. But sure no slow down. But there is a reason why I said to get outside of Dallas. It's unusual when compared to many other spots right now. 

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  • Account Closed
    Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 

    I haven't seen any data suggesting that DFW & Cali price decreases are slowing down. I'm seeing the exact opposite. 

     This is the Top 10 losing value


    "Following are the cities where housing markets are cooling fastest."

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

    You're missing DFW. Look at peak of the bubble prices in DFW from May compared to Sep data. it's an 18% decrease. 

     I buy along the I-35 corridor so I track that as well. Each market is it's own world and I didn't see DFW on the "Fastest Dropping List".

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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y

     If we use Zillow it's clear DFW on deceleration and has not yet found the bottom.

    It's just I can't download all the zip code and put them it to an excel table for very quick analysis. Need to do it manually.

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  • Account Closed
    Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

     If we use Zillow it's clear DFW on deceleration and has not yet found the bottom.

    It's just I can't download all the zip code and put them it to an excel table for very quick analysis. Need to do it manually.

    Yeah, it takes time for sure. Personally I think almost all markets are on a downward slide, but I don't have the proof yet.
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  • Greg R.
    OP
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 

    I haven't seen any data suggesting that DFW & Cali price decreases are slowing down. I'm seeing the exact opposite. 

     This is the Top 10 losing value


    "Following are the cities where housing markets are cooling fastest."

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

    You're missing DFW. Look at peak of the bubble prices in DFW from May compared to Sep data. it's an 18% decrease. 

    i still say May is a deviation. Even for that market it was an insane jump and I showed that in the tables on previous page. All that aside look at August and September. Flatlining. But sure no slow down.


    We keep coming back to data that's showing September numbers. People who closed in (early) September locked rates in June/ July, when rates were in the high 4's/ low 5's. This is a very big decline, but this is representing the impact of rates in the 4's-5's (increase from the 3's.) This data isn't showing the impacts of rates in the 6-7s. We'll see that in Dec/ Jan.  

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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

     If we use Zillow it's clear DFW on deceleration and has not yet found the bottom.

    It's just I can't download all the zip code and put them it to an excel table for very quick analysis. Need to do it manually.

    Yeah, it takes time for sure. Personally I think almost all markets are on a downward slide, but I don't have the proof yet.

     nope, we already identified which city is in trouble, my city is the worst but we found the bottom last month.

    DFW still falling, but this market is quite crazy, the FOMO buyers there are overbidding like there is a hidden gold cave in the past two years. Worse than CA obviously.

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  • Greg R.
    OP
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

     And DFW and Cali are slowing down on price decreass

    What data do you have to support this claim? 


     It's already been posted in this thread. Look at Redfin. Flatlining. Cali same deal. Not going to rehash it because we need to see if October continues - frankly if you look at May as a deviation (and it was compared to every other city) DFW is more flat than Austin. 

    I haven't seen any data suggesting that DFW & Cali price decreases are slowing down. I'm seeing the exact opposite. 

     This is the Top 10 losing value


    "Following are the cities where housing markets are cooling fastest."

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

    You're missing DFW. Look at peak of the bubble prices in DFW from May compared to Sep data. it's an 18% decrease. 

     I buy along the I-35 corridor so I track that as well. Each market is it's own world and I didn't see DFW on the "Fastest Dropping List".

    Look at Dallas (a lot of the data isn't reported as DFW). Peak of the bubble median SOLD price was 490k in May. In September the median SOLD price has dropped all the way down to 399k. 


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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:

    We keep coming back to data that's showing September numbers. People who closed in (early) September locked rates in June/ July, when rates were in the high 4's/ low 5's. This is a very big decline, but this is representing the impact of rates in the 4's-5's (increase from the 3's.) This data isn't showing the impacts of rates in the 6-7s. We'll see that in Dec/ Jan.  


     THe problem with TX market is I can't see the sold price in real time, is it a non-disclosure market ?? otherwise we can analyze it in real-time.

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  • John Carbone
    Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Greg R.:

    We keep coming back to data that's showing September numbers. People who closed in (early) September locked rates in June/ July, when rates were in the high 4's/ low 5's. This is a very big decline, but this is representing the impact of rates in the 4's-5's (increase from the 3's.) This data isn't showing the impacts of rates in the 6-7s. We'll see that in Dec/ Jan.  


     THe problem with TX market is I can't see the sold price in real time, is it a non-disclosure market ?? otherwise we can analyze it in real-time.

    Take a look at 76244….I’m seeing multiple single family homes rent for $2500 and purchases at current prices are 3k mortgage with 20 percent down. 

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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @John Carbone:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Greg R.:

    We keep coming back to data that's showing September numbers. People who closed in (early) September locked rates in June/ July, when rates were in the high 4's/ low 5's. This is a very big decline, but this is representing the impact of rates in the 4's-5's (increase from the 3's.) This data isn't showing the impacts of rates in the 6-7s. We'll see that in Dec/ Jan.  


     THe problem with TX market is I can't see the sold price in real time, is it a non-disclosure market ?? otherwise we can analyze it in real-time.

    Take a look at 76244….I’m seeing multiple single family homes rent for $2500 and purchases at current prices are 3k mortgage with 20 percent down. 


     This market is on 3 sigma deviation, it has to reduce 40-50k in general or 8-12% from the current price to enter long-term normal appreciation line.
    Too many CA folks moving to Texas ;-)

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  • Greg R.
    OP
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @John Carbone:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Greg R.:

    We keep coming back to data that's showing September numbers. People who closed in (early) September locked rates in June/ July, when rates were in the high 4's/ low 5's. This is a very big decline, but this is representing the impact of rates in the 4's-5's (increase from the 3's.) This data isn't showing the impacts of rates in the 6-7s. We'll see that in Dec/ Jan.  


     THe problem with TX market is I can't see the sold price in real time, is it a non-disclosure market ?? otherwise we can analyze it in real-time.

    Take a look at 76244….I’m seeing multiple single family homes rent for $2500 and purchases at current prices are 3k mortgage with 20 percent down. 
     

    Right, so median price is 400k, so people will have to put down $80,000 and will still be paying almost 20% more than rent? Not to mention they'll have a big bump in property taxes after values are reassessed and also have to take on repairs. I think values still have a good ways to go here in DFW. 
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  • Carlos Ptriawan
    Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @John Carbone:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Right, so median price is 400k, so people will have to put down $80,000 and will still be paying almost 20% more than rent? Not to mention they'll have a big bump in property taxes after values are reassessed and also have to take on repairs. I think values still have a good ways to go here in DFW. 

    This DFW market is moving too fast too quick. Paying more than rent would be new normal in the low cap rate market as people will capture appreciation/inflation hedge. It makes sense as long as the IRR is equal or exceeding normal valuation, but it seems DFW has to reduce growth in the next 6-18 months more than CA. I would not buy in TX until a flat line is feasible.

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  • Greg R.
    OP
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    Ok, median values in Dallas are currently 399k. So another 50k decrease in values brings us to 349k. When we look at peak of the bubble values at 490k, that's almost a 30% decrease in values. So is 140k and 30% decrease in values from the peak not a crash? 

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