Phoenix is #2 !!! - - - - - (Austin is #1 )

Buying & Selling Real Estate
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Phoenix is #2 !!! - - - - - (Austin is #1 )

Account Closed
Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes

Following are the cities where housing markets are cooling fastest.

1. Austin, Texas

This metro area’s median home list price as of September: $558,275

Change in this metro area’s median home list price since June: 10.3% decrease

2. Phoenix

This metro area’s median home list price as of September: $493,500

Change in this metro area’s median home list price since June: 9.9% decrease

3. Palm Bay, Florida

This metro area’s median home list price as of September: $379,995

Change in this metro area’s median home list price since June: 8.9% decrease

4. Charleston, South Carolina

This metro area’s median home list price as of September: $500,000

Change in this metro area’s median home list price since June: 8.6% decrease

5. Ogden, Utah

This metro area’s median home list price as of September: $532,500

Change in this metro area’s median home list price since June: 8.6% decrease

6. Denver

This metro area’s median home list price as of September: $625,000

Change in this metro area’s median home list price since June: 8% decrease

7. Las Vegas

This metro area’s median home list price as of September: $460,000

Change in this metro area’s median home list price since June: 7.9% decrease

8. Stockton, California

This metro area’s median home list price as of September: $581,725

Change in this metro area’s median home list price since June: 7.7% decrease

9. Durham, North Carolina

This metro area’s median home list price as of September: $460,000

Change in this metro area’s median home list price since June: 7.5% decrease

10. Spokane, Washington

This metro area’s median home list price as of September: $449,900

Change in this metro area’s median home list price since June: 7.4% decrease

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John Semanchuk
Charleston, SC · Member since 2013 · 380 posts · 157 votes
4y

Sale prices are more meaningful than list prices.   Sale prices are holding up so far in Charleston, Berkeley and Dorchester counties.   

https://ctarmls-public.stats.s...

https://ctarmls-public.stats.s...

https://ctarmls-public.stats.s...

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  • John Semanchuk
    Charleston, SC · Member since 2013 · 380 posts · 157 votes
    4y

    Sale prices are more meaningful than list prices.   Sale prices are holding up so far in Charleston, Berkeley and Dorchester counties.   

    https://ctarmls-public.stats.s...

    https://ctarmls-public.stats.s...

    https://ctarmls-public.stats.s...

    5Reply
  • Bill B.
    Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    4y

    If you want any kind of useful numbers you need to add compared to a year ago. 

    You can put Vegas is down 8% since June, but if you don’t put they are still up 15% from  last September it doesn’t mean much. I’d rather be down 8% in a quarter to up 15% yoy. Than down 1% last quarter to up 3% yoy. 

    Cherry picking dates is an easy way to get clickbait. 

    3Reply
  • John Semanchuk
    Charleston, SC · Member since 2013 · 380 posts · 157 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    If you want any kind of useful numbers you need to add compared to a year ago. 

    You can put Vegas is down 8% since June, but if you don’t put they are still up 15% from  last September it doesn’t mean much. I’d rather be down 8% in a quarter to up 15% yoy. Than down 1% last quarter to up 3% yoy. 

    Cherry picking dates is an easy way to get clickbait. 

    The links I offered compared to Sept 2021 and showed year to date.  I think dropping list prices just shows that sellers have gotten ahead of a slowing market. I won't be surprised if sold prices eventually drop year over year but I don't see it happening yet.
    1Reply
  • Bill B.
    Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    4y

    @John Semanchuk

    Sorry John, I was referring to the original post, didn’t even look at your links. 

    Personally I wouldn’t mind a price drop. I only own a dozen properties and would love to 1031 in to bigger/better properties. As properties decrease it actually lowers my cost to upgrade. (Swapping a $400k home to a $700k home costs $300k btu fi they both drop 10% it’s $360k to $630k, I save $30k, actually a little more with selling costs and other transaction costs.) plus with high interest rates I have less competition on the higher priced properties that are hurt more by higher rates. 

    1Reply
  • Greg R.
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    If you want any kind of useful numbers you need to add compared to a year ago. 

    You can put Vegas is down 8% since June, but if you don’t put they are still up 15% from  last September it doesn’t mean much. I’d rather be down 8% in a quarter to up 15% yoy. Than down 1% last quarter to up 3% yoy. 

    Cherry picking dates is an easy way to get clickbait. 

    I disagree. The market was ascending and peaked in May/June. The whole point is to look at the data from the peak of the bubble and compare that to current prices. Prices a year ago are irrelevant to this comparison. 

    3Reply
  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    If you want any kind of useful numbers you need to add compared to a year ago. 

    You can put Vegas is down 8% since June, but if you don’t put they are still up 15% from  last September it doesn’t mean much. I’d rather be down 8% in a quarter to up 15% yoy. Than down 1% last quarter to up 3% yoy. 

    Cherry picking dates is an easy way to get clickbait. 

    This is a new ball game. What happened last year is over and gone, unless you think things will reverse and go up in the next year.

    I'm betting we're hitting "Normal" (Pre Covid) inventories and "Normal" (Pre Covid) DOM with much higher interest rates and a slowing economy.

    I expect a 10% decrease in asking from April to December and we're already seeing 50% of lisings in the Phoenix area dropping their prices substantially

    It's a "Trend" not a science
    3Reply
  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @John Semanchuk:
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    If you want any kind of useful numbers you need to add compared to a year ago. 

    You can put Vegas is down 8% since June, but if you don’t put they are still up 15% from  last September it doesn’t mean much. I’d rather be down 8% in a quarter to up 15% yoy. Than down 1% last quarter to up 3% yoy. 

    Cherry picking dates is an easy way to get clickbait. 

    The links I offered compared to Sept 2021 and showed year to date.  I think dropping list prices just shows that sellers have gotten ahead of a slowing market. I won't be surprised if sold prices eventually drop year over year but I don't see it happening yet.

    Your comment: "that sellers have gotten ahead of a slowing market."

    Interesting take. I'd say the opposite, since DOM have gone from 1 day to 53 days in Phoenix with 50% of listings dropping their asking price since July.

    I haven't looked at the other markets tho'. But, if DOM has grown that much it's clear new sellers aren't pricing their properties in anticipation of a down market. They are trying to capture yesteday's value. 

    Rates are set to go up again, that will slow things a little bit more.

    "They are chasing it to the bottom". Happens every down cycle.

    0Reply
  • John Semanchuk
    Charleston, SC · Member since 2013 · 380 posts · 157 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @John Semanchuk:
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    If you want any kind of useful numbers you need to add compared to a year ago. 

    You can put Vegas is down 8% since June, but if you don’t put they are still up 15% from  last September it doesn’t mean much. I’d rather be down 8% in a quarter to up 15% yoy. Than down 1% last quarter to up 3% yoy. 

    Cherry picking dates is an easy way to get clickbait. 

    The links I offered compared to Sept 2021 and showed year to date.  I think dropping list prices just shows that sellers have gotten ahead of a slowing market. I won't be surprised if sold prices eventually drop year over year but I don't see it happening yet.

    Your comment: "that sellers have gotten ahead of a slowing market."

    Interesting take. I'd say the opposite, since DOM have gone from 1 day to 53 days in Phoenix with 50% of listings dropping their asking price since July.

    I haven't looked at the other markets tho'. But, if DOM has grown that much it's clear new sellers aren't pricing their properties in anticipation of a down market. They are trying to capture yesteday's value. 

    Rates are set to go up again, that will slow things a little bit more.

    "They are chasing it to the bottom". Happens every down cycle.


     Bad phrasing on my part.  What I meant is that sellers are pricing as if the market is still rising like it was 10 months ago.  I was trying to say their pricing is outpacing what the market is actually doing.  So I agree with you on that score.  As an agent I can tell you that it isn't always easy to convince a seller that they shouldn't price their property 10-15% higher than what their neighbor's house just sold for.

    1Reply
  • Luka Milicevic
    Real Estate Agent · Nashville, TN · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    4y

    It's interesting that list price is down so much. From what I've seen in my local market is that listings are consistently being priced at what I believe to be their value based on comps. The issue being they are no longer selling for that price. 

    Overall, prices themselves-not just list price are definitely coming down. 

    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @John Semanchuk:
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @John Semanchuk:
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    If you want any kind of useful numbers you need to add compared to a year ago. 

    You can put Vegas is down 8% since June, but if you don’t put they are still up 15% from  last September it doesn’t mean much. I’d rather be down 8% in a quarter to up 15% yoy. Than down 1% last quarter to up 3% yoy. 

    Cherry picking dates is an easy way to get clickbait. 

    The links I offered compared to Sept 2021 and showed year to date.  I think dropping list prices just shows that sellers have gotten ahead of a slowing market. I won't be surprised if sold prices eventually drop year over year but I don't see it happening yet.

    Your comment: "that sellers have gotten ahead of a slowing market."

    Interesting take. I'd say the opposite, since DOM have gone from 1 day to 53 days in Phoenix with 50% of listings dropping their asking price since July.

    I haven't looked at the other markets tho'. But, if DOM has grown that much it's clear new sellers aren't pricing their properties in anticipation of a down market. They are trying to capture yesteday's value. 

    Rates are set to go up again, that will slow things a little bit more.

    "They are chasing it to the bottom". Happens every down cycle.


     Bad phrasing on my part.  What I meant is that sellers are pricing as if the market is still rising like it was 10 months ago.  I was trying to say their pricing is outpacing what the market is actually doing.  So I agree with you on that score.  As an agent I can tell you that it isn't always easy to convince a seller that they shouldn't price their property 10-15% higher than what their neighbor's house just sold for.

    Lol, love those sellers.
    0Reply
  • Aaron Gordy
    Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    Prices have not decreased in Austin year over year.  People are still moving here. Austin cumulative labor force has increased from 40k year over year and pushing down unemployment to 3.0%. The gdp for the metro is the 2nd highest in the nation. There is so much construction going on around the metro to keep up with the demand that skilled trades are actually hard to find. 

    Prices should be compared year over year to get an accurate reflection of the market. When there is seasonal demand the best reflection of the market is year over year. There are seasonal demand patterns in real estate that are best in a year over year basis.

    For example, by the University of Texas Austin there are 50k+ students that attend. In July and August  rents pop as compared to many other parts of the year. In September and the following months the rents tend to adjust downwards since there is little demand for that submarket. So, if one looks at the numbers month to month there is always a big push in rents in the summer time and a decline in rents in the Fall. If I were to assume that month to month is a good gauge of the market then I would come to the conclusion that Austin metro is nuts.

    But when one steps back that seasonal demand pattern is all over the US. The vast majority of home sales are during the summer time and so naturally the prices will go a little higher when the demand is the strongest.  Year over year is the best gauge when there is seasonal demand in any industry. 

    You should also look at the days on market and also the close to list price ratio to get a really good gauge of the market. When there is 6+ months of inventory then there will be substantial blood in the water and the deals will be plentiful.  

    1Reply
  • Greg R.
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

    Prices have not decreased in Austin year over year.  People are still moving here. Austin cumulative labor force has increased from 40k year over year and pushing down unemployment to 3.0%. The gdp for the metro is the 2nd highest in the nation. There is so much construction going on around the metro to keep up with the demand that skilled trades are actually hard to find. 

    Prices should be compared year over year to get an accurate reflection of the market. When there is seasonal demand the best reflection of the market is year over year. There are seasonal demand patterns in real estate that are best in a year over year basis.

    For example, by the University of Texas Austin there are 50k+ students that attend. In July and August  rents pop as compared to many other parts of the year. In September and the following months the rents tend to adjust downwards since there is little demand for that submarket. So, if one looks at the numbers month to month there is always a big push in rents in the summer time and a decline in rents in the Fall. If I were to assume that month to month is a good gauge of the market then I would come to the conclusion that Austin metro is nuts.

    But when one steps back that seasonal demand pattern is all over the US. The vast majority of home sales are during the summer time and so naturally the prices will go a little higher when the demand is the strongest.  Year over year is the best gauge when there is seasonal demand in any industry. 

    You should also look at the days on market and also the close to list price ratio to get a really good gauge of the market. When there is 6+ months of inventory then there will be substantial blood in the water and the deals will be plentiful.  

    No one is talking YOY. The whole point is looking at prices from the top of the bubble to current. YOY is irrelevant to this conversation. Austin is seeing MAJOR price declines. Austin peaked in May 2022 where the median sold price was 670k. Latest data we have, which is September shows that the median sold price is 563k. That's a 100k+ decrease in median sold values in 4 months. It's going to get worse as well. The Sep data is reflecting sales that closed in Sep. Most of these had rates that were locked in June/ July. Let's wait and see the data that reflects the 6&7 rates. Austin going down bigly. 

    2Reply
  • Chris Webb
    Investor · Central Virginia · Member since 2020 · 394 posts · 253 votes
    4y

    As a few people have put on here, prices should be compared YoY and they should be sold prices not list prices. YoY for seasonality, and sold price because that is when the actual transaction takes place. List price could be called wish price in today's market. 

    0Reply
  • Aaron Gordy
    Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    @Greg R.Not sure where you get your data from but its wrong. You live in Dallas. Its only a 2 hour drive. Come down and see all the construction that is going on to keep up with the demand and then argue that we are in a catastrophic period of the sky is falling. If you like I will show you the areas that are experiencing huge demand so that you can see firsthand and we can look at actual properties. The demand is real and the supply is definitely inadequate. I am trying to get as much as I can. 

    0Reply
  • Issac San Miguel
    Lender · Austin Texas · Member since 2022 · 319 posts · 156 votes
    4y

    my question is which markets will continue to cool (freeze) and which markets will level out.....

    0Reply
  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    4y

    I understand the value of using since market high versus YOY as the time since market high is a leading indicator.  YOY has increase followed by decrease.  In another 6 months, the current last 6 months will be the first 6 months of the YOY.  The YOY is likely to reflect this downturn very strongly in the next 6 months. 

    My question is what is the source of the data? 

    I also would prefer to see sold RE used.  I suspect sold data would be even worse (more decline) than list data.  In my market a large percentage of the sales are below the list price.  I was also a little surprised my market did not make the list as the sold price seems to be down more than some of that list (but YOY is still up over 13% according to core logic).  

    As others indicated this could be an opportunity, but I am proceeding with caution.  

    Good luck

    1Reply
  • Sam Bhattacharya
    Rental Property Investor · Damascus, MD · Member since 2018 · 50 posts · 31 votes
    4y

    According to zillow, one of my houses is down 7% from its peak value that was hit around May.  The other is down 1%.

    I am in the DC area.

    1Reply
  • Greg R.
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

    @Greg R.Not sure where you get your data from but its wrong. You live in Dallas. Its only a 2 hour drive. Come down and see all the construction that is going on to keep up with the demand and then argue that we are in a catastrophic period of the sky is falling. If you like I will show you the areas that are experiencing huge demand so that you can see firsthand and we can look at actual properties. The demand is real and the supply is definitely inadequate. I am trying to get as much as I can. 

    Really? Recorded real estate transaction data is wrong? Go do some research. What I provided is SOLD median prices from May and Sep, not asking prices or some other speculative data. Construction has nothing to do with the fact that the prices are coming down big time. Not sure if you noticed, but if you want to focus on YOY data, interest rates are more than double of what they were a year ago. Affordability is at a 20 year low and prices are falling.
    0Reply
  • Greg R.
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Dan H.:

    I understand the value of using since market high versus YOY as the time since market high is a leading indicator.  YOY has increase followed by decrease.  In another 6 months, the current last 6 months will be the first 6 months of the YOY.  The YOY is likely to reflect this downturn very strongly in the next 6 months. 

    My question is what is the source of the data? 

    I also would prefer to see sold RE used.  I suspect sold data would be even worse (more decline) than list data.  In my market a large percentage of the sales are below the list price.  I was also a little surprised my market did not make the list as the sold price seems to be down more than some of that list (but YOY is still up over 13% according to core logic).  

    As others indicated this could be an opportunity, but I am proceeding with caution.  

    Good luck

    Completely agree. If people want a real YOY comparison, let's do YOY in May of 2023. Market peaked May 2022, so all the people infatuated with YOY can wait until May to figure out what the rest of us already know - which is that prices are crashing/ correction (I really don't care which term is used).  
    1Reply
  • Aaron Gordy
    Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    @Greg R. I am sorry, man. Your numbers are inaccurate. Where do you get your data from? What is the source? Austin metro has the lowest unemployment in the state. It also is adding 100 employees daily which doesn't include their families. Source is Texas Workforce Commission. 2.8% is the unemployment. Demand is certainly outstripping supply for all things real estate here in the metro. Again, the invitation stands man. Come on down and I will show you and treat you to some of the best bbq that the city has to offer. The metro is in a boom! I will also show you a land listing that we have. Its for 2.5 mil for 6.5 acres. We will likely be in multiple offers as its near Tesla. It was inherited and I am not even going to talk about the appreciation that the family is getting over a 20 year hold as it will make anyone's head spin.  

    0Reply
  • Greg R.
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

    @Greg R. I am sorry, man. Your numbers are inaccurate. Where do you get your data from? What is the source? Austin metro has the lowest unemployment in the state. It also is adding 100 employees daily which doesn't include their families. Source is Texas Workforce Commission. 2.8% is the unemployment. Demand is certainly outstripping supply for all things real estate here in the metro. Again, the invitation stands man. Come on down and I will show you and treat you to some of the best bbq that the city has to offer. The metro is in a boom! I will also show you a land listing that we have. Its for 2.5 mil for 6.5 acres. We will likely be in multiple offers as its near Tesla. It was inherited and I am not even going to talk about the appreciation that the family is getting over a 20 year hold as it will make anyone's head spin.  

    https://www.redfin.com/city/30...

    How about this... you tell me what the median sold prices in Austin were in May, and then in September. 
    0Reply
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

    @Greg R. I am sorry, man. Your numbers are inaccurate. Where do you get your data from? What is the source? Austin metro has the lowest unemployment in the state. It also is adding 100 employees daily which doesn't include their families. Source is Texas Workforce Commission. 2.8% is the unemployment. Demand is certainly outstripping supply for all things real estate here in the metro. Again, the invitation stands man. Come on down and I will show you and treat you to some of the best bbq that the city has to offer. The metro is in a boom! I will also show you a land listing that we have. Its for 2.5 mil for 6.5 acres. We will likely be in multiple offers as its near Tesla. It was inherited and I am not even going to talk about the appreciation that the family is getting over a 20 year hold as it will make anyone's head spin.  


    what is the zoning on that 6.5 acres is that for residental commerical etc ? does make a difference. I sold 3 acres in Sonoma county CA for 2 mil in 2020  I bought it in 96 for 25k total.. so yes the most money made in real estate is when you hold land long term and the use changes big time very common.
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    0Reply
  • Heath Thomas Jr
    Lender · Baltimore MD · Member since 2015 · 202 posts · 67 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Dan H.:

    I understand the value of using since market high versus YOY as the time since market high is a leading indicator.  YOY has increase followed by decrease.  In another 6 months, the current last 6 months will be the first 6 months of the YOY.  The YOY is likely to reflect this downturn very strongly in the next 6 months. 

    My question is what is the source of the data? 

    I also would prefer to see sold RE used.  I suspect sold data would be even worse (more decline) than list data.  In my market a large percentage of the sales are below the list price.  I was also a little surprised my market did not make the list as the sold price seems to be down more than some of that list (but YOY is still up over 13% according to core logic).  

    As others indicated this could be an opportunity, but I am proceeding with caution.  

    Good luck

    Completely agree. If people want a real YOY comparison, let's do YOY in May of 2023. Market peaked May 2022, so all the people infatuated with YOY can wait until May to figure out what the rest of us already know - which is that prices are crashing/ correction (I really don't care which term is used).  
    Agreed. Yes, I understand the purpose of looking YOY, but it is just as important to look at what is happening on a shorter timeframe. It doesn't matter if Austin is currently up huge still YOY when the market is headed towards a brick wall. Odds are the hiring freezes soon, and then what happens with all that development coming online and no one to buy?
    1Reply
  • Greg R.
    Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2016 · 887 posts · 1k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Heath Thomas Jr:
    Quote from @Greg R.:
    Quote from @Dan H.:

    I understand the value of using since market high versus YOY as the time since market high is a leading indicator.  YOY has increase followed by decrease.  In another 6 months, the current last 6 months will be the first 6 months of the YOY.  The YOY is likely to reflect this downturn very strongly in the next 6 months. 

    My question is what is the source of the data? 

    I also would prefer to see sold RE used.  I suspect sold data would be even worse (more decline) than list data.  In my market a large percentage of the sales are below the list price.  I was also a little surprised my market did not make the list as the sold price seems to be down more than some of that list (but YOY is still up over 13% according to core logic).  

    As others indicated this could be an opportunity, but I am proceeding with caution.  

    Good luck

    Completely agree. If people want a real YOY comparison, let's do YOY in May of 2023. Market peaked May 2022, so all the people infatuated with YOY can wait until May to figure out what the rest of us already know - which is that prices are crashing/ correction (I really don't care which term is used).  
    Agreed. Yes, I understand the purpose of looking YOY, but it is just as important to look at what is happening on a shorter timeframe. It doesn't matter if Austin is currently up huge still YOY when the market is headed towards a brick wall. Odds are the hiring freezes soon, and then what happens with all that development coming online and no one to buy?

    Agreed, but Austin is not up huge... median sold price on Sep is only up 2.5% YOY. Don't be surprised if that turns red when the Oct data comes out. But if not in Oct, I'd put my money that it will be in the red within the next few months. 

    1Reply
  • Aaron Gordy
    Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    4y

    @Jay Hinrichs Its zoned commercial by the county. Its right outside of Austin. I am going to send you a pm with @Campbell Key info. He is a superb agent that I sponsor but also a civil engineer that is very knowledgeable of the area as he is doing civil engineering work in the area.

    0Reply
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