U.S. GDP Shrinks By 0.9% — White House and Experts Push Back On Recession Claims

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U.S. GDP Shrinks By 0.9% — White House and Experts Push Back On Recession Claims

https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/us-gdp-shrinks-white-house-and-experts-push-back-on-recession

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Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 8 votes

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James Free
Rental Property Investor · Fort Collins, CO · Member since 2015 · 158 posts · 327 votes
4y
No matter how wonderful other indicators were, no major media would possibly allow that consecutive quarters of GDP decline is "not a recession" if their political party was not in power.
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- Katie Rogers
  Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2015 · 644 posts · 17 votes
  4y
  Once again:
  The 6 elements that the NBER uses to determine a recession:
  1.Real personal income (less transfers);
  2. Nonfarm payroll employment
  3. Household survey employment
  4. Industrial production
  5. Real wholesale + retail sales
  6. Real consumer spending
  All 6 of these items are currently expanding as of Jun30, 2022, but at a slower rate than they were previously.
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- BiggerPockets TeamPro Member
  OP
  Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 8 votes
  4y
  In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. NBER is a backward looking organization. Employment is a lagging indicator. By the time they call a recession it will be time to count the dead and bayonet the wounded. IMO
  /www.forbes.com/advisor/inve...
  
  Originally posted by waveman55.
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- Kevin Maher
  Appraiser · Rosemary Beach, FL · Member since 2009 · 30 posts · 28 votes
  4y
  All that being said and who is lying doesn't really matter. the truth is everyone knows ie gen public that things are bad. call it what you want, but you had better be liquidating all real estate. Get some cash and be ready for the upswing. Stock market has been in a sell off with lots of cash going to the side. better read the tea leaves. I told realtors in 06 market was starting to crash and got laughed at. Real estate is worst than the stock market on getting out. Once you figure out it is going down you can't get out. You will chase the market to the bottom with everyone else and competing against REO's to come. Run now
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- Katie Rogers
  Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2015 · 644 posts · 17 votes
  4y
  But things are not actually that bad. Consumer confidence (word, emotion) is down, but consumer spending (action) is up. Actions speak louder than words.
  However you are correct that real estate is much less liquid than stocks. 2006 was only a crash for people who bought the hype about value being what a buyer will pay, and did not crunch the numbers on intrinsic value. People who bought wisely pre-runup to the the bubble and avoided buying during the bubble did not need to sell during the "crash" which was really a correction.
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- James Free
  Rental Property Investor · Fort Collins, CO · Member since 2015 · 158 posts · 327 votes
  4y
  Inflation and people rolling off of COVID assistance can easily goose all six of those metrics without anything good actually happening.
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Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
4y
The White house is changing the definition of "recession" and Wikipedia changed the definition of "definition" a day later. Words can mean anything and truth no longer exists for some.
They exaggerate the jobs numbers. They aren't creating new jobs; these are mostly jobs that haven't been filled since COVID shut our country down. Jobs are one of the last things to fall in a recession, so I believe the worst is yet to come.
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- Bob Wynn
  Member since 2021 · 1 post · 0 votes
  4y
  Couldn't believe it so I looked it up, took me all of 3 minutes to confirm the "definition" story was bogus (turns out someone just mocked up a fake Wikipedia image to poke fun at the 'definition of a recession' debate). Do your research next time and don't just repeat any old thing you see on Twitter, it makes you part of the problem.
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- Miranda Paton
  Member since 2018 · 8 posts · 0 votes
  4y
  I also think it's worth considering wage growth as opposed to just employment growth. After all, if employment is high but wages are low, then that fact (employment) doesn't actually mean that people have money to spend. Generally speaking, then, the Recession Or Not question seems to be a matter of bickering over definitions and which data has been measured.
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Deano VulcanoPro Member
Investor · Fort Mill, SC · Member since 2013 · 129 posts · 70 votes
4y
I'm really surprised BP is drinking the Whithouse Kool- Aid. Reminds me of, "It depends on what the definition of "is"...is
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- Dennis Lavin
  Member since 2019 · 2 posts · 0 votes
  4y
  Look at the picture of the writer. You can tell just by looking at her she's a Biden supporter.
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- Katie Rogers
  Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2015 · 644 posts · 17 votes
  4y
  The 6 elements that the NBER uses to determine a recession:
  1.Real personal income (less transfers);
  2. Nonfarm payroll employment
  3. Household survey employment
  4. Industrial production
  5. Real wholesale + retail sales
  6. Real consumer spending
  All 6 of these items are currently expanding as of Jun30, 2022, but at a slower rate than they were previously.
  0 Reply
- Katie Rogers
  Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2015 · 644 posts · 17 votes
  4y
  So this guy is obviously a Trump supporter, amiright? https://www.youtube.com/wat...
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- BiggerPockets TeamPro Member
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  Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 8 votes
  4y
  In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP.
  /www.forbes.com/advisor/inve...
  
  Originally posted by waveman55.
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Jameson Schwab
Member since 2021 · 21 posts · 7 votes
4y
More of the same in this divided country. Republicans want it so badly to be defined as a recession so they can blame the Biden administration and make political gains. Democrats scrambling to grasp at the vague defining factors of a recession to save face. Republicans claiming the jobs numbers don’t mean anything but when Trump was creating hundreds of thousands of low paying jobs without benefits they were praising him.
What happened to moderate democrats or moderate republicans? If one ran I would vote for them in a second. So tired of these extremes everywhere in our country.
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- Katie Rogers
  Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2015 · 644 posts · 17 votes
  4y
  Most Democrats running for office have been quite moderate. Can't say the same for Trump supporters still promoting Trump's Big Lie running for office
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- BiggerPockets TeamPro Member
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  Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 8 votes
  4y
  look at the facts before you spew leftist-extremism "truths" like "BIG LIE!" there is a mountain of evidence to suggest there was coordinated, planned efforts to influence the quantity of ballots. Election Day should be just that, 1 day with mail-ins for those overseas in military and personal travel. that's it. if you want more than that than ask yourself why.
  
  Originally posted by Stephen Torti.
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- Katie Rogers
  Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2015 · 644 posts · 17 votes
  4y
  Um, I am the one looking at facts. Apart from strenuous get-out-the-vote efforts from both parties, there was no nefarious coordinated planned effort to "influence the quantity of ballots." (BTW, nice euphemism for the objectively false "massive fraud" Big Lie). After a year and a half, no mountain of evidence, none for your extreme position.
  I could agree with a one-day Election Day If it were a Federal holiday, but then you still have the problem of people who must work on holidays, sometimes for very long shifts, like doctors, nurses, police, first responders, caregivers, etc.
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- Stephen Torti
  Investor · Providence, RI · Member since 2016 · 142 posts · 40 votes
  4y
  I don't want to get into this because the truth is, none of us know the truth but we have our opinions based on our own set of "facts." however, there is video that i've seen of ballot stuffers and geofencing done by True The Vote to prove that there was... let's call it 'odd' activity at the ballot drop boxes. Sure, is it possible that these people were just doing favors for old folks... but yeah, no that's not what was happening. When was the last time GA went blue? Back when the dems were supporting the KKK and trying to stifle MLK.
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- Katie Rogers
  Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2015 · 644 posts · 17 votes
  4y
  "Based on our own set of facts" is the problem." True the Vote lacks credibility. Both Raffensberger and Sterling (who both voted for Trump by the way) of Georgia have well and truly debunked every allegation. 2000 Mules was objectively garbage, not a "set of facts". True the Vote's founder is getting rich off donations. You betray your bias with the obligatory and gratuitous swipe at Dems.
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- BiggerPockets TeamPro Member
  OP
  Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 8 votes
  4y
  Hey KD. I was going over some of your posts and it seems you're a smart guy, but we clearly believe very different things. If you're interested, I believe I can make a very good argument for why I believe Trump was the winner in 2020. Take care.
  
  Originally posted by R Angelo.
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Steve Harlow
Investor · Irvine, CA · Member since 2014 · 81 posts · 30 votes
4y
Based on the numbers were are technically in a recession. Doesn't matter if its a DEM, REPUB, or what every in power. Buy a couple of classic econ books and it will explain in. Google sometimes is garbage
and "WIK" is well any ones opinion. My 14yo even doesn't put much stock in it.
This was the first number and there often will be a revised number coming out so let see how much it changes.
The real problem is that talk of a recession has an effect on peoples behavior when it comes to spending.
And recessions can be short or long based on the data I have over the last 100 years.
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BiggerPockets TeamPro Member
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Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 8 votes
4y
“ experts” = Lying Democrats …and “ The White House”..same thing…we just can’t look at Facts though…

Originally posted by bb333.
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- BiggerPockets TeamPro Member
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  Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 8 votes
  4y
  Facts: NBER is the entity that determines whether we are in a recession. The 6 elements that the NBER uses to determine a recession:
  1.Real personal income (less transfers)
  2. Nonfarm payroll employment
  3. Household survey employment
  4. Industrial production
  5. Real wholesale + retail sales
  6. Real consumer spending
  All 6 of these items are currently expanding as of Jun30, 2022, but at a slower rate than they were previously.
  
  Originally posted by Lucas.
  0 Reply
- BiggerPockets TeamPro Member
  OP
  Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 8 votes
  4y
  In 1974, economist Julius Shiskin came up with a few rules of thumb to define a recession: The most popular was two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. NBER is a backward looking organization. Employment is a lagging indicator. By the time they call a recession it will be time to count the dead and bayonet the wounded.
  /www.forbes.com/advisor/inve...
  
  Originally posted by waveman55.
  0 Reply
- Katie Rogers
  Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2015 · 644 posts · 17 votes
  4y
  Rules of thumb are simply that. Nonpartisans keep their eyes and ears open. Partisans try to make political hay in every situation.
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Katie Rogers
Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2015 · 644 posts · 17 votes
4y
Sure, when other indicators also correlate. That is why this "recession" is very odd. The indicators that the recession-determination entity, NBER, uses to determine recessions are not correlating.
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Glenn Ko
Member since 2022 · 1 post · 0 votes
4y
Idiots running things. Changing the definition doesn't change the facts.
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- Katie Rogers
  Santa Barbara, CA · Member since 2015 · 644 posts · 17 votes
  4y
  The current "idiots" are doing a far sight better than the previous idiots. No one changed any definitions. The facts are that the other indicators that normally accompany two consecutive quarters of GDP decrease are not present.
  The 6 elements that the NBER uses to determine a recession:
  1.Real personal income (less transfers);
  2. Nonfarm payroll employment
  3. Household survey employment
  4. Industrial production
  5. Real wholesale + retail sales
  6. Real consumer spending
  All 6 of these items are currently expanding as of Jun30, 2022, but at a slower rate than they were previously.
  0 Reply
- James NewmanPro Member
  Member since 2019 · 3 posts · 0 votes
  4y
  All except employment are expanding primarily due to inflation. Real Wholesale and Retail spending are not inflation adjusted. Real Personal Income is in 2009 dollars, however adjusted by PCE which does not take all inflation out, and is not at all adjusted for spendable income which is markedly lower due to inflation. As far as employment, using LFPR against Civilian non-institutional population, we are short about 4.5 million people working on the survey, and non-farm employment is never reliable and government distortable.
  Finally, the leading comparison to any other idiots other than the ones currently in power is a canard, since they have nothing to do with current conditions. All 6 are negative to level at best when looking at the inflationary impact...and finally of the last 10 downturns that lasted two or more quarters with negative growth, all 10 were defined by the NBER as recessions! The only thing different is the corruption of the Progressives in power, redefining every word that would paint something in a negative light to something that it is really NOT!
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- BiggerPockets TeamPro Member
  OP
  Member since 2026 · 14k+ posts · 8 votes
  4y
  Are you sure that inflationary impact was not taken into NBER's considerations? Of course in past 10 recessions, NBER's 6 criteria and 2 quarters of declining GDP correlated well. The lack of correlation this time is why this possible recession is so odd. For example, earnings expectations are declining, but GDI is not in its usual tandem with GDP.
  Also people previously in power certainly may have something to do with current conditions. For example, the impact of money supply on current conditions was established during the previous administration.
  March 2017 to Feb 2020 steady increase of 57/month
  Feb 2020 to May 2020 explosion to 792/month
  May 2020-Jan 2021 moderates to 170/month
  Jan 2021 to March 2022 slight but steady increase of 174/month
  Mar 2022 to June 2022 a drop of 300
  Progressives do not have much power, and they are furious about it. As far as corruption goes, the Trump administration record may never be matched. Nixon will likely remain in distant second place for decades or even centuries.
  
  Originally posted by Lucas.
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