Fannie, Freddie Model Declared Dead - FINALLY!

Fannie, Freddie Model Declared Dead - FINALLY!

Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes

So it appears that the GSE model is officially being declared dead by the Obama administration and is nearing major reform from what I am reading from a number of sources. Any thoughts on what this means for us going forward?

Higher rates and lower amortization periods? Higher down payments? More renters? Popular real estate techniques no longer working?

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Real Estate Investor · Alpharetta, GA · Member since 2010 · 415 posts · 484 votes
15y

I don't think the issue is securitization, per se.

The issue is partly that an entity backed by the full faith and credit of the government -- oops, I mean the taxpayer -- undertook a social mission to increase homeownership. Whether you think that's a battle that should be waged by government in the first place is largely an opinion; we need homeowners, for sure, but we need renters, too. And at least as recently as 30 to 40 years ago, owning a home was something you aspired to.

You scrimped and you saved, and you dreamed of your white picket fence. My parents did this for six years, eventually putting 20% down on their home and taking out a fully-amortizing 10-year loan -- at a rate of 10.75%, I believe.

Of late, however, the notion is that you need only 3% down to buy a house, and hey, if you don't have that, get a relative to give it to you, or get a non-profit to help you, or hey, just pay 3% more for the house and get the seller to contribute 3% (or more). We've had people buying houses for years with no real skin in the game, and for a time, it all worked out. They were able to make their payments, and eventually the home's value crept up enough that, even if there was a foreclosure, the lender had a better shot of coming out whole. (Everyone remembers the 125% LTV HELOC, right?)

My point in all of this is that it has little to do with securitization, which is nothing more than taking a basket of small securities (the individual loans), putting them into a larger basket, slicing that basket up into pieces with some degree of cash-flow predictability. Now, did Fannie and Freddie rely on this process to fund the loans they bought? Yes, of course. But securitization, in and of itself, is not the issue. At least in my opinion...

I think what we had here was the perfect storm. Not only did we have underwriting standards go out the window, but we also had interest rates held down too low after 9/11. The low rates did what they were supposed to do, which was keep the economy going, but they were kept there for far too long, and speculation in real estate was rampant. I think I remember there being a time when something like 40% to 50% of all real estate sales were "second homes" because people were buying solely for an appreciation play. Remember hearing tales of people buying two ocean condos, watching them double, then selling one to pay for both? I remember that very well...that was insanity.

So, we had a good ol' fashioned speculative bubble, only it was funded with debt secured by the very asset on which the speculation was being made, which made it even worse when the whole thing imploded. Sort of like when we used to let people buy stock on 90% margin...only with real estate we were really letting people buy it on 99% to 100% margin. Who WOULDN'T speculate on a house when you have zero dollars invested? Heads, I win...tails, you (the taxpayer) lose...

Time to conclude my rant...I suppose you could argue that, but for the securitization process, Fannie and Freddie never would have existed, ergo, securitization is to blame. If Fannie and Freddie were not GSEs, though, they could still have used securitization to raise funds for their operations, but the cost would have been a little higher because of the lack of the implied government backing. But, non-GSE versions of Fannie and Freddie would have likely paid more attention to credit quality (assuming that they could be brought down and not deemed "too big to fail"), and they certainly would not have had a social mission at the direction of the federal government.

I do agree that it would be better for everyone if the people who made mortgage loans just kept them in their portfolio, but the total value of all mortgages in the US (at least around 2008) was about $10 trillion. All banks in the US today have assets of about $12 trillion, so it looks as if we can't rely on the banking system to fully fund all of the country's mortgage needs, thereby making some level of securitization a necessity.

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  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    Wow....how did we get to Egypt? Can anyone honestly claim that we are heading toward an Egypt-style duality of wealth simply because we make people put 20% down on their purchases? Really?!

    What evidence supports this?

  • SFR Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y
    Originally posted by Mike M:
    Funny how the "poor" of today differs from the "poor" of just 50 years ago!

    I don't remember who said it, but only in the USA do the "poor" have a car, a color TV, and a cell phone. Of course, owning a few houses, a boat, and a Porsche doesn't make you rich either in this country (speaking from direct experience here).

    WTF were we talking about again?

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    About getting rid of an entity that allows people to feed their entitlement mentality ;-)

    Is there any wonder this is tending toward a political discussion?

  • Investor · Westminster, CO · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y

    Bryan

    This is leaning towards a political discussion, one that directly affects Real Estate Investing, that being FNMA and FDMC. If the government tries to manipulate the Housing Market, it affects all of us who invest in Real Estate.

    Anyone who thinks that the government can HELP hasn't spent any time in a "Public Housing Project!"

  • Residential Real Estate Agent · Costa Mesa, CA · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 380 votes
    15y

    I argued about this issue with a neighbor of mine over Facebook ad nauseum yesterday. While he happens to be one of those multi-millionaire Ivory Tower liberals that I can't help but be a bit jealous of (and ironically, he made his millions by starting a FC services company circa 2006), I had to disagree with him, and also with you Bryan.

    Getting rid of or at least significantly overhauling Fannie/Freddie had to be done. That much we can all agree on. But you know who the major player is to take over the private sector secondary market? Pennie Mac. Who runs Pennie Mac? Countrywide guys. Seriously. Everyone but Mozilo (who I'm sure is somewhere in the Caribbean working on his tan). So we are taking the fairly reasonable 20% down, sane DTI and FICO number model and turning it over to the guys that turned everything nuclear to begin with.

    Really? REALLLY???

    I'm all for reform, and in general I'm all for the private sector, but there seem to be two paths we will go down. A return of the NINJAs (which would be great as a movie, but not so much as a mortgage qualification standard), or bringing hard money to main street (meaning Joe and Suzy homebuyer will be paying 20% for their slice of the American dream). I don't think either of those things are beneficial to market sustainability, improvement, or overall health.

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    Yeah...discussing a (G)SE means that the G has to be discussed.

    I keep seeing posts and discussion about us turning into a two class society if people are forced to be responsible and save money to put down on a house. Is our society really at the point where the constituents are unable to toil and work hard for what they have? Why is everyone entitled to below market rates with thin down payments?

    I am still very interested in seeing opinions about what these potential changes could do to popular investing techniques. It is hard to discuss in the abstract because we don't know how things will change, but it is fun nonetheless ;-)

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    @Jake...why would someone be "taking over" the secondary market? Absent GSE distortion there would be a free market for purchasing things in the secondary market.

    Am I missing something?

  • Residential Real Estate Agent · Costa Mesa, CA · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 380 votes
    15y

    Yep.

    Google Pennie Mac. Then comb the last couple days of CNBC for who is likely to take over for Fannie/Freddie.

    I really don't like the way that story ends.

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    How does one company "take over" in a free market? Please connect the dots for me since I am too lazy to read through all of the articles.

  • Joel OwensBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Canton, GA · Member since 2010 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
    15y

    I could see putting 10% down.

    With 20% wouldn't the PMI companies throw a fit??

    There would be no insurance requirement at that point.Wouldn't they lobby heavily against it??

    I know NAR is already against it.They don't want anything that makes financing even harder with the high inventory levels already.

    Didn't they say even if something was decided with Fannie and Freddie it would be 2013 to 2014 before it was implemented??

    If low down payment financing is going to go away and interest rates will be higher I think you will see a massive spending spree by regular buyers and investors to lock in loans before terms and money down become undesirable.

    Who would want a higher interest rate loan with a 20% down payment??

    I have clients that have millions in cash.They want to put down as little as possible to leverage into as many value add deals as possible.Putting 20% or more down is not attractive to them in a deal.

    I hope if Fannie and Freddie go away that the commercial mortgage market won't get heavily regulated by the government.They have done that on the residential side and all but killed that market.

    This is why I am slamming in as many deals as possible before the window of opportunity shuts.Hopefully if the private market took over they would have reasonable rates.

  • Joel OwensBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Canton, GA · Member since 2010 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
    15y

    There has been plenty of data showing over the years the middle class has been eroding in America.

    There are more people becoming millionaires than ever before.There are also middle class falling into poverty because of job losses,pay cuts,layoffs,etc.

    So while there is a middle class it is getting thinner and thinner.

    I want to be on the wealthy end and not on the other end where people are working 2 to 3 jobs to survive.

  • Landlord · Seattle, WA · Member since 2010 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y

    Joel, I agree that we have seen an erosion of the middle class. I tend to believe though that much of that has to do with government intervention in the free market process and government handouts that have encouraged a entitlement mentality.

    While I think it will be painful to move away from entitlements, I think this is the only way that a true middle class can be reestablished.

    I think that Fannie Mae/ Freddie Mac's passing could be a good thing. Filling the vacuum may take some time.

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    Filling the vacuum could take some time. I hope they make a change gradually instead of trying to do everything in a single stroke of a pen. They could phase things out like 5-10% per year or some such so there isn't a massive rush like what Joel describes.

  • Private Money Lender · OK · Member since 2010 · 163 posts · 32 votes
    15y

    I would assume renting will skyrocket.

    What about seasoned titles from lease/ options and refinances from subject to's. Wouldn't that be far easier then a straight mortgage from the start?

  • Investor · Springfield, MA · Member since 2010 · 276 posts · 84 votes
    15y

    Given this news about Fannie and Freddie, what is the silver lining for investors? How would people shift their investment strategy?

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    The new guidelines will make people put up more equity, which should be a net positive for investors if the people need to sell for some reason. At least that is my line of reasoning...could be flawed.

  • SFR Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y
    Originally posted by Bryan Hancock:
    The new guidelines will make people put up more equity, which should be a net positive for investors if the people need to sell for some reason.

    Sounds good for the cash-flush investor buying, not so much for the cash-poor investor selling. Fortunately, I don't plan on selling, for a long time.

  • Real Estate Broker · Fort Pierce, FL · Member since 2009 · 221 posts · 95 votes
    15y

    Without the safety net of Fannie and Freddie, I’m thinking the banks are going to have such stringent guidelines for obtaining loans, investors had better learn the in’s and out’s of a HML’s. It’s going to be harder for investors to get monies for acquisitions and harder for end-users to purchase.

    20% down did not curtail the past market and would not have had much of an impact considering some areas had value increases that exceeded 37%-44% only to have those same values plummet in reverse.

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    I think rates will rise and banks will supply MORE capital when they aren't competing with irrational quasi gov-mint entities distorting the market.

    Thoughts?

  • Real Estate Investor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2010 · 60 posts · 16 votes
    15y

    Interest rates will rise, making real estate consumers' costs higher, which will put downward pressure on home prices.

  • Real Estate Investor · Alpharetta, GA · Member since 2010 · 415 posts · 484 votes
    15y
    Originally posted by Bryan Hancock:
    I think rates will rise and banks will supply MORE capital when they aren't competing with irrational quasi gov-mint entities distorting the market.

    Thoughts?

    Banks alone can't fund America's mortgage needs. I saw an article in the WSJ that agreed with this thinking. And any capital that they would lend is just less capital they can lend elsewhere. I, for one, do not want to see business lending impaired because of an increase in mortgage lending. Moreover, banks are not really designed to lend 30-year money (especially with the inherent prepayment risk) as they focus on matching up assets and liabilities. The last thing we need is another banking system that funds long-term loans with short-term deposits. (Savings & Loan crisis, anyone?)

    The GSEs will be phased out over more than 5 years (one article said 7-8), so there will be an orderly transition to a new model.

    As for costs to borrowers, it's conceivable that rates and especially fees could go down for borrowers since they will have more equity in the property and default losses should go down with these loans.

    I'm just happy that there's talk of taking the taxpayer out of the mortgage guaranty business.

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    I don't understand why people think that the "the banks" can't handle the mortgage needs of our country. If things are phased in and we let the market adjust why can't the banks grow to the size necessary to take share from the government? Why is it taken as a given the government is needed?

    Banks also don't need to issue 30-year debt. Issue whatever debt is necessary to make it financially attractive to lend. If this debt costs too much or requires more security interest than people can pay more and save more absent the government distortion.

  • Sharad M.Pro Member
    Carlsbad, CA · Member since 2010 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y

    Great points so far. Would like to add my inflated $0.02. I believe the banks can handle all the mortgage needs of the country, but it will come down to a simple economics principle of demand and supply. The borrowing rate will go up and the homeowners will be required to have more equity in the home.

    I don't necessarily think it will be such a bad thing for the country in the long term. Not everyone in the country should own a home. It should be a privilege to own a home and not a right. People should have to work hard and save money to be able to own a home. This way the homeowners will take pride in ownership. They will think hundreds of time before even considering walking away from their home.

    What we have had in the last few years has been forced homeownership. People shouldn't be convinced that they should buy a house because it requires only 3% down. That's not good for anyone. We should have to work hard and save money to get to the point where we can achieve our American Dream.

    IMHO, it's not the end of the world if you can't own a house and have to rent for a while and save money for a down payment for your home purchase.

  • Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    I would love to hear about the reasons why the banks can't shoulder the load. Why are these claims being made?

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