If you like RE market stats. Check this out.

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If you like RE market stats. Check this out.

Chris Vasquez
Real Estate Investor · DFW, TX · Member since 2011 · 81 posts · 11 votes

Here is a link to NAR's local market stats from there web site.
Scroll down the page and choose your market. Enjoy! http://www.realtor.org/research/subscription_data/localmarketreports

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Jon Holdman
Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
15y

Case Shiller data.

Yes, it does include Portland.

NAR data is based on median home prices. Its a statistic, but its not a useful statistic for determining what the future value of a specific house might be.

Simple, stupid example. A developer builds a bunch of small houses and sells them for $50K. Media price is $50K. Ten years later, someone builds a bunch of big fancy houses and sells them for $200K. Median prices for the area is $200K. Are those little, 10 year old houses worth $200K? Not a chance. Its a fundamentally bogus statistic for anything other than the total number of sales.

Case Shiller OTOH, compares multiple sales of the same property. It gives, IMHO, a much better picture of the change in price of a specific house over time.

The NAR is an associate of Realtors with the agenda of making money for their members. They don't promote home ownership, they promote transactions. Buy, sell, move up, downsize.

The thing that really galls me, and sours me on their information is the idea that "a home is your biggest investment". And "you can own for cheaper than renting". "The Economist" has a long section is the March 3 edition on property. Their overall thesis is that property is [http://www.economist.com/node/18250385]the riskiest of all possible investments[/url]. This one came out last week, but is worth picking up a copy or reading it online.

To refute NAR's contention that spending as much as you can buying a home ("buy the most home you can afford") is a "good investment"

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  • Bert Domensino
    Riverside, CA · Member since 2011 · 13 posts · 0 votes
    15y

    Thanks Chris- very interesting reading !

    0Reply
  • Raymond B.
    FL · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 357 votes
    15y

    Chris V,
    Thank you.

    0Reply
  • Mark UpdegraffBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · Rochester, NY · Member since 2010 · 1k+ posts · 689 votes
    15y

    Very nice resource, thanks Chris!

    Podcast Guest on Show #112
    Updegraff Group Realty4.745 Reviews
    WebsiteView Page
    0Reply
  • Bryan Hancock
    Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    Great find Chris...thanks for sharing!

    I distrust any information put out by NAR though!

    0Reply
  • Peter Seely
    Select a State · Member since 2011 · 90 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    Hi Bryan,

    May I ask why you distrust anything NAR reports? Do you think there results actually reflect the true picture? If not what is it you think they don't disclose?

    Thanks, just wondering if I should be cautious?

    0Reply
  • Bryan Hancock
    Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    I distrust NAR numbers because they are cooked to demonstrate how fantastic pricing trends are. To quote a popular author:

    "They do not acknowledge things like sellers taking their properties off the market when they do not like prices, changes in home size and quality, or the fact that in hard times, some of the market is foreclosures and such that do not generate Realtors®’ commissions or statistics."

    In general, NAR's numbers are fantasy and that is why there are alternatives like Case/Shiller. 79.43% of statistics are completely made up.

    2Reply
  • Jeff S.
    Specialist · Portland, OR · Member since 2010 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y

    Bryan-can't get Case/Schiller to work for me. No matches found for Portland, Oregon.

    NAR shows Portland median price at $230,200. Our rents are about the same as what many of you report on properties 1/2 this price.

    0Reply
  • Chris Vasquez
    OP
    Real Estate Investor · DFW, TX · Member since 2011 · 81 posts · 11 votes
    15y

    Your welcome guys,

    Brian, I agree. Expired listings then relisted. Price change listings. Cancelled then relisted with another agent. Many other factors they do not consider pertaining to inventory. Also adversely, NARS numbers do not include FSBO #s. Active, Pend, Closed. I remember reading 7-10% of properties sold were FSBO. But then again, it may have been a NAR stat pumping the idea to consumers that they "NEED" a Realtor to sell their house.

    0Reply
  • Bryan Hancock
    Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    You would be surprised (well...maybe not) about the crazy stuff I have heard come out of the mouths of agents over the years Chris. The Kool-aid is especially sweet in Realtor land.

    0Reply
  • Jimmy Oldrich
    Real Estate Investor · Brooklyn, NY · Member since 2011 · 34 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/02/corelogic-nars-2010-existing-home-sales.html

    Heres a specific citation that suggests NAR is overstating, gives different data, and suggets possible reasons for the drift. National, not local, which is not as immediately practical, but maybe helpful in adjusting NAR numbers.

    0Reply
  • Chris Vasquez
    OP
    Real Estate Investor · DFW, TX · Member since 2011 · 81 posts · 11 votes
    15y

    You know Bryan,
    I have been in sales for most of my working life.
    There was a retail sales trainer years ago named John Lawhon. His big quote was "Stoke the fire's of their desires and you will not fail to make the sale." When I became a Realtor in Miami around 04. I took a different approach than all the other agents. Lawhons quote works on most in a retail atmosphere. In RE it works then backfires. During my initial training. I noticed the rookies who got a new listing. Told the perspectives anything they wanted to hear. "I'm the best agent, I'll bend over backwards, I'll list it for whatever You want." Like the client has a clue what there property is worth. I'm in the camp of "The customer is Not always right." Just my mentality.
    Anyway, the rookies could not figure out why their listings would not sell. I overheard one of the pro's in the office talking to the broker say this. " I got another listing from one of your rookies failed listing presentations. Broker: Really? How?
    Agent: When they tell me what they want to sell for and they're priced way out of the market. I stand up, without saying a word and start packing up my presentation. When they ask, where are you going? In a kind, firm way. I tell them, I'm not a house sitter. I refuse to spend my own money marketing an overpriced house that will not sell. I'm sorry for waisting Yours and My time. She had a set on her that any man would be proud of. Plus she was the top agent in my office. Not only did she get the listing. She had the lowest Days On Market average.
    I'm not advocating everyone needs a realtor. Mostly the general public needs a reality check. A good Realtor is the only one who can do that.
    FYI I'm no longer a Realtor. I got tired of working for someone else. Although, it was a great experience learning the Realtor side of the transaction.

    0Reply
  • Jon Holdman
    Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    15y

    Case Shiller data.

    Yes, it does include Portland.

    NAR data is based on median home prices. Its a statistic, but its not a useful statistic for determining what the future value of a specific house might be.

    Simple, stupid example. A developer builds a bunch of small houses and sells them for $50K. Media price is $50K. Ten years later, someone builds a bunch of big fancy houses and sells them for $200K. Median prices for the area is $200K. Are those little, 10 year old houses worth $200K? Not a chance. Its a fundamentally bogus statistic for anything other than the total number of sales.

    Case Shiller OTOH, compares multiple sales of the same property. It gives, IMHO, a much better picture of the change in price of a specific house over time.

    The NAR is an associate of Realtors with the agenda of making money for their members. They don't promote home ownership, they promote transactions. Buy, sell, move up, downsize.

    The thing that really galls me, and sours me on their information is the idea that "a home is your biggest investment". And "you can own for cheaper than renting". "The Economist" has a long section is the March 3 edition on property. Their overall thesis is that property is [http://www.economist.com/node/18250385]the riskiest of all possible investments[/url]. This one came out last week, but is worth picking up a copy or reading it online.

    To refute NAR's contention that spending as much as you can buying a home ("buy the most home you can afford") is a "good investment"

    3Reply
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