Will people leave cities post COVID 19?
Real Estate Agent · Spokane, WA & North Idaho · Member since 2017 · 135 posts · 170 votes
Will people leave cities post COVID 19?
Most Popular Reply
Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
6yNo.
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196 Replies
- Investor · Malakoff, TX · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes6y
Originally posted by @Mitch Kennedy:
@Phil Wells
I absolutely agree with you, why? Because I’m literally having that conversation with my leaders right now and am looking to move to a more rural area.
...and that's only after what we've been through so far. Imagine if we go another 2-3 years with some type of partial shut down for some months each year? The changes could be large. However, if all this goes away things will go back to normal.
- Member since 2019 · 44 posts · 17 votes6y
More and more companies will allow employees to work remotely - started from big tech companies like Facebook, Twitter. Hence, more people will start moving to other small cities and money will flow within those communities, i believe.
- Rental Property Investor · Member since 2019 · 304 posts · 462 votes6y
It is not just the WFH phenomenon that is driving this trend. The BLM protests just added fuel to the fire. To make matters worse, the demands to defund police departments are actually being implemented in some cities. In NYC, de Balsio cut the police budget by $1 billion and within a week crime increased 380%. Who wants to live in that kind of environment? WFH just made the decision to leave a lot easier.
Looking a little further down the road, municipalities have lost serious revenue from the COVID lock down and they will be raising taxes to compensate for the losses. Smaller communities suffered less.
I forgot to mention the pension problems that some major blue cities have. More tax revenue is being diverted to cover pension payouts that will result in other services being cut or taxes raised again.
When you add this all up, the future for big cities, especially those that are leftist and financially unstable, does not look promising.
- Member since 2019 · 44 posts · 17 votes6y
What I've observed by analyzing 5 million short-term rental booking data from December 2019 to May 2020 is that people are more likely to travel domestically than internationally - which sounds obvious. Here, I wrote an article about analyzing this pattern in depth.
- Investor · Fort Washington, MD · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes6yAside from Seattle, where is that happening? Even there that is one small section. There is no city in America that has been turned over to anarchist.
- Investor · Fort Washington, MD · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes6y
Thus far i haven't seen one thing that would drive masses from the city. Even if it did there's millions of people ready to take their place. Give me that property.
- Investor · Ridgewood, NJ · Member since 2012 · 113 posts · 10 votes6y
Its interesting to speculate on this. Based on recent news you would think the cities will empty out. I would say the subset of the working population that has families will consider moving out of cities faster then before but cities will not disappear. Perhaps a good time to buy in major cities and sell in suburbs in the short term time frame. Whats not clear is the nearby smaller cities near major cities (ie. Jersey City to NYC). How will these places get impacted.
- Glen Burnie, MD · Member since 2020 · 12 posts · 8 votes6y
Originally posted by @Dennis Cosgrave:
It is not just the WFH phenomenon that is driving this trend. The BLM protests just added fuel to the fire. To make matters worse, the demands to defund police departments are actually being implemented in some cities. In NYC, de Balsio cut the police budget by $1 billion and within a week crime increased 380%. Who wants to live in that kind of environment? WFH just made the decision to leave a lot easier.
Looking a little further down the road, municipalities have lost serious revenue from the COVID lock down and they will be raising taxes to compensate for the losses. Smaller communities suffered less.
I forgot to mention the pension problems that some major blue cities have. More tax revenue is being diverted to cover pension payouts that will result in other services being cut or taxes raised again.
When you add this all up, the future for big cities, especially those that are leftist and financially unstable, does not look promising.
Reducing police budgets is a long term strategy to reduce crime. The immediate impact is expected to be negative, but those funds are being diverted to fund public health, education, and community improvement, which is at the root of crime problems.
- Real Estate Agent · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2018 · 283 posts · 228 votes6y
Originally posted by @Mark Franklin:
Originally posted by @Dennis Cosgrave:
It is not just the WFH phenomenon that is driving this trend. The BLM protests just added fuel to the fire. To make matters worse, the demands to defund police departments are actually being implemented in some cities. In NYC, de Balsio cut the police budget by $1 billion and within a week crime increased 380%. Who wants to live in that kind of environment? WFH just made the decision to leave a lot easier.
Looking a little further down the road, municipalities have lost serious revenue from the COVID lock down and they will be raising taxes to compensate for the losses. Smaller communities suffered less.
I forgot to mention the pension problems that some major blue cities have. More tax revenue is being diverted to cover pension payouts that will result in other services being cut or taxes raised again.
When you add this all up, the future for big cities, especially those that are leftist and financially unstable, does not look promising.
Reducing police budgets is a long term strategy to reduce crime. The immediate impact is expected to be negative, but those funds are being diverted to fund public health, education, and community improvement, which is at the root of crime problems.
Reducing police budgets is a long term strategy to reduce crime... whaaaatttt?
- Glen Burnie, MD · Member since 2020 · 12 posts · 8 votes6y
Originally posted by @Sam Lewis:
Originally posted by @Mark Franklin:
Originally posted by @Dennis Cosgrave:
It is not just the WFH phenomenon that is driving this trend. The BLM protests just added fuel to the fire. To make matters worse, the demands to defund police departments are actually being implemented in some cities. In NYC, de Balsio cut the police budget by $1 billion and within a week crime increased 380%. Who wants to live in that kind of environment? WFH just made the decision to leave a lot easier.
Looking a little further down the road, municipalities have lost serious revenue from the COVID lock down and they will be raising taxes to compensate for the losses. Smaller communities suffered less.
I forgot to mention the pension problems that some major blue cities have. More tax revenue is being diverted to cover pension payouts that will result in other services being cut or taxes raised again.
When you add this all up, the future for big cities, especially those that are leftist and financially unstable, does not look promising.
Reducing police budgets is a long term strategy to reduce crime. The immediate impact is expected to be negative, but those funds are being diverted to fund public health, education, and community improvement, which is at the root of crime problems.
Reducing police budgets is a long term strategy to reduce crime... whaaaatttt?
Correct. Study after study shows policing doesn't always reduce crime. Access to education, employment, and social services does.
- Investor · Malakoff, TX · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes6y
Originally posted by @Mark Franklin:
Originally posted by @Dennis Cosgrave:
It is not just the WFH phenomenon that is driving this trend. The BLM protests just added fuel to the fire. To make matters worse, the demands to defund police departments are actually being implemented in some cities. In NYC, de Balsio cut the police budget by $1 billion and within a week crime increased 380%. Who wants to live in that kind of environment? WFH just made the decision to leave a lot easier.
Looking a little further down the road, municipalities have lost serious revenue from the COVID lock down and they will be raising taxes to compensate for the losses. Smaller communities suffered less.
I forgot to mention the pension problems that some major blue cities have. More tax revenue is being diverted to cover pension payouts that will result in other services being cut or taxes raised again.
When you add this all up, the future for big cities, especially those that are leftist and financially unstable, does not look promising.
Reducing police budgets is a long term strategy to reduce crime. The immediate impact is expected to be negative, but those funds are being diverted to fund public health, education, and community improvement, which is at the root of crime problems.
Great. Then we'll see great reductions in crime in cities that defund police.
- Glen Burnie, MD · Member since 2020 · 12 posts · 8 votes6y
Originally posted by @Eric James:
Originally posted by @Mark Franklin:
Originally posted by @Dennis Cosgrave:
It is not just the WFH phenomenon that is driving this trend. The BLM protests just added fuel to the fire. To make matters worse, the demands to defund police departments are actually being implemented in some cities. In NYC, de Balsio cut the police budget by $1 billion and within a week crime increased 380%. Who wants to live in that kind of environment? WFH just made the decision to leave a lot easier.
Looking a little further down the road, municipalities have lost serious revenue from the COVID lock down and they will be raising taxes to compensate for the losses. Smaller communities suffered less.
I forgot to mention the pension problems that some major blue cities have. More tax revenue is being diverted to cover pension payouts that will result in other services being cut or taxes raised again.
When you add this all up, the future for big cities, especially those that are leftist and financially unstable, does not look promising.
Reducing police budgets is a long term strategy to reduce crime. The immediate impact is expected to be negative, but those funds are being diverted to fund public health, education, and community improvement, which is at the root of crime problems.
Great. Then we'll see great reductions in crime in cities that defund police.
Not necessarily. Resourses also need to be reallocated effectively. The cities need to invest in education, employment, and health care in high risk communities. I like to look at City Master Plans which can usually be found on city's websites to see what neighborhoods they are investing in. For example in Baltimore, you can see the plan for improving the Historic Upton Neighborhood. I believe city's investment in their communities is key to reducing crime. Some of the police budget can be reallocated to these efforts.
- Investor · Malakoff, TX · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes6y
Regardless of what other people do, I wouldn't want to live in a big city. Way more likely to have restrictions, also with respect to landlords as well as health.
- Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes6y
I have investments in 2 big cities (NYC & SF). I of course live in the suburbs. If I were 20 years younger (in my 20s) I’d live in one of those two cities. Either one.
If I was 10 years younger (in my 30s) I’d be moving out of those cities into the suburbs to accommodate the needs of my growing family, avoid paying steep private school tuition and have more space to myself. I’d do this regardless of if/not there was a pandemic. I really don’t think the pandemic changes anything.
As I move out another 20 / 30 something will be waiting to take my place.
BTW, many desirable suburbs around NYC or SF don’t come cheap!!!!
I’d agree that there was a perception that it was easier to contract Covid if you lived in a dense city like Manhattan or SF.
But the proof is in the pudding, Manhattan was impacted but the impact was equally bad in New Jersey which is a lot less dense.
SF had very relatively marginal impact, despite the being so dense and now we have a mega spike in states like Texas and Arizona which really have a lower density of population.
The evidence clearly points to outbreaks wherever people congregate. It could be in meat packing plants in remote Iowa, public transport in Manhattan, or choir groups or protests wherever. It also points to a DISMAL failure of the US machinery to anticipate, understand, deal with a pandemic and lately the extreme immaturity of the population to show the discipline and restraint needed to thwart the virus. Compare this to countries like China, Vietnam, Taiwan Hong Kong etc which have had past pandemic experience and the population largely more compliant, those countries have nearly defeated the virus.
In the end if one has not lived in a large city it will be practically impossible to pass judgement on the cost of living etc. That COL won’t resonate and will look like a whacky foreign language.
- Lender · Sacramento, CA · Member since 2015 · 112 posts · 62 votes6y
It’s always shocked me how decent earning young professionals who rent don’t leverage they’re ability to qualify for home as a primary or 2nd home. Even if they don’t want to live in Suburbs. You can always rent out part or the whole house and still rent yourself somewhere else. I think the biggest misconception by younger adults is that the house they own in some way shackles them. When in reality it’s the exact opposite, as it springboards they’re future retirement.
If I was young millennial renting in California, I’d buy in a low cost suburb out of state as a 2nd home. $120k home would only require 10% down ($12k), lock in 2.9% fixed interest rate. Could rent it out, or move to it later on if wanting to switch to new scenery.
I believe as more of our gig economy professionals realize they can live anywhere, they will start using this strategy until they can fully transition they’re work to full time remote or join gig economy.
- Flipper/Rehabber · Leominster, MA · Member since 2020 · 667 posts · 384 votes6y
Anecdotally: no, there is too much money to be made by being close to a major metropolitan area. My gut tells me that there will be a shift away from cities at some point, but history tells us that major population shifts occur during major generational transitions.
- Rental Property Investor · Sacramento, CA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 893 votes6y
High end product is always volatile. Ride the ups high and the lows to the bottom. People don't pay exorbitant rents to be able to walk to work, they do so for the lifestyle associated with living in cosmopolitan areas. I think it's less about WFM and more about Covid's impact on the already fickle business of "fun". Housing product tied to entertainment, travel, and hospitality will be impacted moreso than product that is not tied to this. These things will come back, but their owners and investors have been crushed now and many will be licking their wounds for a while. I wouldn't put a dollar into that kind of housing product now unless it was a speculative play where I expect a quick exit and a nice check to go with it. I'll let everyone else ride those assets down and look forward to buying them when investor sentiment is maximum bearishness.
- Rental Property Investor · Upstate, NY · Member since 2012 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes6y
Just had another young couple decide to stay rather than move to the city. She was concerned about her safety. They had also asked if we had any vacancies for some of her friends who now want to get out of the city.
My daughter has worked from her homes in AZ & NY for over 2 years. My nephews all NOW work from home & one is building a new home with a complete office. Another nephew left NYC when Covid hit & is now on Longboat Key & works mergers & acquisitions from his new home office & boat. His wife was a PM in NYC & has absolutely no desire to move back.
2 years ago my MBA niece left her s/w consulting job in DC to work for the same company but based here in her large home office. Her husband just went back to the office 3 days a week the rest of the time he works from home.
I see a trend!!!
- Developer · NY/NJ/PA · Member since 2018 · 758 posts · 935 votes6y
For every person here that says they have 2 people they know leaving, I know 30 that are staying...
Covid is now spreading throughout the south now too. Will people leave from there now too?
Full time WFH is temporary. No one wants full time WFH. Prime example of recency bias - San Jose, CA · Member since 2015 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes6y
I was managing an apartment building during the Great Recession 2008 years. People left the SF Bay Area in droves and prices for rentals and properties plummeted. Look at it now. People left in droves, then came back in droves.
Will things change in any huge way because of the option to work from home? Not for the vast majority of workers.
So, I think this will be much like it was back then. Prices will fall, some will be able to work remotely and stay that way, but most will not, and the prices will increase again.
If it means there will be less demand for the supply, then rents will come down some and prices for properties will come down some. But, because the vast majority of jobs will not be able to be done remotely, and people will always want to live here because of the culture and weather, I don't see a huge change in the long run.
- Bronx, NY · Member since 2014 · 117 posts · 33 votes6y
I have spoken to 2 realtors who both told me they have had a pretty big increase in clients looking to move out of NYC looking for homes with some property and less interaction with people to possibly contract any illness.
- Contractor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2018 · 432 posts · 221 votes6y
@Phil Wells it’s already happening heavy. Lockdown cities have lost their appeal. Property values in East Tn small cities have increased more than 10% recently, and are projected to rise another 11% in the next year according to Zillow. Land prices in rural USA are at RECORD highs. I know because I own land in 3 rural type states and am searching for more and selling some now.
- Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes6y
Everyone on here seems to be fixated on NYC and SF as markets that will see maximum damage from Covid. I beg to differ. These cities are too big and very diversified. They will stand, survive and thrive. Strangely however no one is talking about the systematic devastation and migration that could emerge in cities and small towns with single economies like Casinos, Theme Parks, Tourism Resorts, Oil belt and College Towns. I see huge risks in those places. Of course all this assumes Covid hangs around for a very long time!
- Investor · Malakoff, TX · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes6y
Originally posted by @Mark Franklin:
Originally posted by @Eric James:
Originally posted by @Mark Franklin:
Originally posted by @Dennis Cosgrave:
It is not just the WFH phenomenon that is driving this trend. The BLM protests just added fuel to the fire. To make matters worse, the demands to defund police departments are actually being implemented in some cities. In NYC, de Balsio cut the police budget by $1 billion and within a week crime increased 380%. Who wants to live in that kind of environment? WFH just made the decision to leave a lot easier.
Looking a little further down the road, municipalities have lost serious revenue from the COVID lock down and they will be raising taxes to compensate for the losses. Smaller communities suffered less.
I forgot to mention the pension problems that some major blue cities have. More tax revenue is being diverted to cover pension payouts that will result in other services being cut or taxes raised again.
When you add this all up, the future for big cities, especially those that are leftist and financially unstable, does not look promising.
Reducing police budgets is a long term strategy to reduce crime. The immediate impact is expected to be negative, but those funds are being diverted to fund public health, education, and community improvement, which is at the root of crime problems.
Great. Then we'll see great reductions in crime in cities that defund police.
Not necessarily. Resourses also need to be reallocated effectively. The cities need to invest in education, employment, and health care in high risk communities. I like to look at City Master Plans which can usually be found on city's websites to see what neighborhoods they are investing in. For example in Baltimore, you can see the plan for improving the Historic Upton Neighborhood. I believe city's investment in their communities is key to reducing crime. Some of the police budget can be reallocated to these efforts.
Of course. There has to be an excuse for when it doesn't work.
- Member since 2020 · 4 posts · 6 votes6y
@Phil Wells l, I think the New York City suburbs like Rockland County NY and Northern NJ will reap the benefits of people fleeing NYC because if defunding the police along with total anarchy prevail, people will leave. With COVID-19 spiking back up and technology on the rise I believe that big companies will afford people to work at home longer and they will not need commercial property.
People paying $6,000 a month for a 500 sq ft apartment in Manhattan will run out of the city and get bigger space for much cheaper. I think big cites are done for awhile. Just my thoughts
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