I am noticing the "Donut" effect in most Major Cities not just Phila

I am noticing the "Donut" effect in most Major Cities not just Phila

Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

A couple of years back I read an article regarding what was called the donut effect when it came to major cities. Specifically, this article was talking about Philadelphia. As an agent and investor in this area for a number of years, I have also found that this trend and what the article was explaining, was pretty accurate. 

You might be asking what is the donut effect. It's very simple. If you put a donut over the city of Philadelphia with the center of the donut around the Center City area and nearby (essentially the hole), and the rest of the donut was basically everything else around it, you would find this trend:

In the "Hole" of the donut:

1. The Real Estate Market in the "Hole" was struggling and having a hard time keeping up

2. Many people were leaving this market

3. Crime, homelessness, etc rapidly increased causing the above to directly increase as well

Everything else:

1. Real Estate market boom

2. Larger migration with demand outpacing supply

3. Development of more consumer friendly commercial locations like: attractions, restaurants, quick bite places, bars, etc

A couple years later today I am still noticing the same trend in my City. Visiting the city frequently, I noticed that it is not as alive, homelessness and crime are rampant, car break-ins are high, and the overall vibe of the city is very dirty and poor in my opinion. 

Thinking that this was mostly unique to my city, I have traveled to a few areas where I have seen this same idea and heard from other travelers their same stories. Recently being in Seattle and Denver, I noticed this effect as well. Hearing from travelers in Portland they claimed the same. 

With more growth, rising prices, and development in suburban areas will we ever see cities return to what they were? Most consensus I have have heard was that people will never return and don't NEED to. Lot's of people work from home and the need for a financial district and commuting to the city is now a thing of the past for most. 

While my research is extremely limited (and entirely based on what I see - which is arguably an investors best tool), I did want to ask what others here have noticed in their major cities. 

Personally if the trend continues, more people will move out and it will just become more and more deserted and need to be repurposed. 

People have cars, they work from home, they don't want to look for parking, and they want to feel safe. The suburbs give them that. Will the cities ever restore themselves? 

Would love to hear from as many people across the states!

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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
2y
As for Portland its downtown while business wise has been really hurt.. and its started with the
BLM riots ( or should i say peaceful protest) that and those nice Antifa folks fire bombing things destroyed many many business's

the inner city real estate is nothing like back east. but they have got to get a handle on the homeless..  city / state reversed the law that made all drugs legal that was a bone head move .. and they finally figured that one out.. the next one they need to reverse is that any theft under 900.00 basically is just a ticket and not enforced thats also led to the rampant theft that has closed down numerous business's .  another stupid law/idea.

But that all said RE values are still basically holding within 10% of their highs.. Condo market down town is soft.  But suburbs are very robust for us new home builders.

it is coming back slowly but it will come back if the city just gets their act together with law and order. which is starting to happen the ultra liberal politicians are losing local elections.
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  • Ian IppolitoBusiness Member
    Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y

    Can't comment on Philadelphia but this is not the case at all in Tampa.

    The core market (hole of the donut) is booming and lots of young people moving to the city center and new apartments, condos, restaurants, amenities etc.

    Alot of the sun-belt is experiencing alot of net-migration...versus at least some cities in the Northeast not so much. 

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  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Ian Ippolito:

    Can't comment on Philadelphia but this is not the case at all in Tampa.

    The core market (hole of the donut) is booming and lots of young people moving to the city center and new apartments, condos, restaurants, amenities etc.

    Alot of the sun-belt is experiencing alot of net-migration...versus at least some cities in the Northeast not so much. 


     THanks for the info! I have been hearing about the market in FL struggling due to insruance policy issues. Is this affecting your area and market?

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  • Ian IppolitoBusiness Member
    Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Alan Asriants:
    Quote from @Ian Ippolito:

    Can't comment on Philadelphia but this is not the case at all in Tampa.

    The core market (hole of the donut) is booming and lots of young people moving to the city center and new apartments, condos, restaurants, amenities etc.

    Alot of the sun-belt is experiencing alot of net-migration...versus at least some cities in the Northeast not so much. 


     THanks for the info! I have been hearing about the market in FL struggling due to insruance policy issues. Is this affecting your area and market?

    Yes for houses directly on the water (such as the bay) and in a flood-zone. Flood insurance increases are capped at 18% per year, which is still alot.

    Many of the most expensive houses on the bay are being bought by people who are wealthy enough to self-insure.

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  • Chris LanePro Member
    New to Real Estate · Nashville, TN · Member since 2024 · 13 posts · 7 votes
    2y
    I work in the tech industry, and there's a big push for people to return to office. Some industries and companies have not adopted it yet, but some big names on Wall St. have, and I think more are coming. Amazon just recently announced they're going back go 5 days in the office work weeks. Other tech giants have already announced similar, or hybrid 3-day work weeks. For places with company presence like this (Seattle, for one), people will either have to move back, or it will create opportunity for people to move into those cities to work for those companies. I won't comment on the actual return to office part itself, as I have strong feelings, but that is what it happening.
  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Chris Lane:
    I work in the tech industry, and there's a big push for people to return to office. Some industries and companies have not adopted it yet, but some big names on Wall St. have, and I think more are coming. Amazon just recently announced they're going back go 5 days in the office work weeks. Other tech giants have already announced similar, or hybrid 3-day work weeks. For places with company presence like this (Seattle, for one), people will either have to move back, or it will create opportunity for people to move into those cities to work for those companies. I won't comment on the actual return to office part itself, as I have strong feelings, but that is what it happening.

    Thank you for that insight. If this is true, we can see more businesses returning to cities, more attractions and night life for those living and working there. So in theory they can bounce back if all the dominos fall in the row. 

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  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    2y
    As for Portland its downtown while business wise has been really hurt.. and its started with the
    BLM riots ( or should i say peaceful protest) that and those nice Antifa folks fire bombing things destroyed many many business's

    the inner city real estate is nothing like back east. but they have got to get a handle on the homeless..  city / state reversed the law that made all drugs legal that was a bone head move .. and they finally figured that one out.. the next one they need to reverse is that any theft under 900.00 basically is just a ticket and not enforced thats also led to the rampant theft that has closed down numerous business's .  another stupid law/idea.

    But that all said RE values are still basically holding within 10% of their highs.. Condo market down town is soft.  But suburbs are very robust for us new home builders.

    it is coming back slowly but it will come back if the city just gets their act together with law and order. which is starting to happen the ultra liberal politicians are losing local elections.
  • Chris LanePro Member
    New to Real Estate · Nashville, TN · Member since 2024 · 13 posts · 7 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Alan Asriants:
    Quote from @Chris Lane:
    I work in the tech industry, and there's a big push for people to return to office. Some industries and companies have not adopted it yet, but some big names on Wall St. have, and I think more are coming. Amazon just recently announced they're going back go 5 days in the office work weeks. Other tech giants have already announced similar, or hybrid 3-day work weeks. For places with company presence like this (Seattle, for one), people will either have to move back, or it will create opportunity for people to move into those cities to work for those companies. I won't comment on the actual return to office part itself, as I have strong feelings, but that is what it happening.

    Thank you for that insight. If this is true, we can see more businesses returning to cities, more attractions and night life for those living and working there. So in theory they can bounce back if all the dominos fall in the row. 


    If you want to go down a deep dark rabbit hole, and I don't want to get outside the scope of BiggerPockets, but look into "15 minute cities". I think that's the concept you're asking about.
  • Flipper/Rehabber · Member since 2019 · 26 posts · 21 votes
    2y

    @Alan Asriants

    Alan, great summarization of Philly. I am a carpenter who works on many projects throughout the city. Currently working in old city, we have noticed the same things you speak of. It is basically a dump. I'm not sure why people want to move there. It's literally disgusting and many areas are "lipstick on a pig" areas. Gentrification is struggling in my opinion. The projects that are going up are built with less than qualified help, cheap materials and rushed to the point of poor craftsmanship all around. I've also worked on several projects in northern liberties, specifically the Piazza. I wont go into details about that place, but i wouldn't feel safe walking my dog there at all. My catalytic converter was stolen there 2 yrs ago while I was working.

  • Property Manager · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2014 · 728 posts · 596 votes
    2y

    People need to feel safe in their community as well as good schools, etc. If people don't feel safe, then those able to move will move. The trend in larger cities has been for less police and more leniency with criminals. Once this starts, the affluent will move, leaving less tax money and starting a downward spiral. 

  • Developer · New York City, NY · Member since 2015 · 812 posts · 718 votes
    2y

    Major cities have a leadership issue; there is none. So, NYC, Newark, Jersey City, Philadelphia, New Haven, Hartford, etc. are all having issues with crime and affordability.  The problem is, many of these cities started out by expanding services to make it easier to afford to live there.  However, when you have cashless bail, police afraid to enforce or not able enforce law and order, and people being incentivized not to work; what do they think will happen?  

    Philly always had the ability to become a great city; but the people who are elected just hurt the hand that feeds it.  Crime is on the rise, property protections for landlords is nearly non-existent, and development is leaving the area for more favorable regulations.  What does the city expect will happen when you tie the hands of the police department and make the regulations so dire for investment; why would any major developer go and invest in the city?

    The city has and will always have potential, but they need to hire/elect outside people to run the city like a business.  If not, it's just going to turn into a mini-Chicago.

  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Chris Lane:
    Quote from @Alan Asriants:
    Quote from @Chris Lane:
    I work in the tech industry, and there's a big push for people to return to office. Some industries and companies have not adopted it yet, but some big names on Wall St. have, and I think more are coming. Amazon just recently announced they're going back go 5 days in the office work weeks. Other tech giants have already announced similar, or hybrid 3-day work weeks. For places with company presence like this (Seattle, for one), people will either have to move back, or it will create opportunity for people to move into those cities to work for those companies. I won't comment on the actual return to office part itself, as I have strong feelings, but that is what it happening.

    Thank you for that insight. If this is true, we can see more businesses returning to cities, more attractions and night life for those living and working there. So in theory they can bounce back if all the dominos fall in the row. 


    If you want to go down a deep dark rabbit hole, and I don't want to get outside the scope of BiggerPockets, but look into "15 minute cities". I think that's the concept you're asking about.

     Appreciate this insight. But downtowns should already be considered 15 min cities. So in theory, they should focus heavily on them ...

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  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
    As for Portland its downtown while business wise has been really hurt.. and its started with the
    BLM riots ( or should i say peaceful protest) that and those nice Antifa folks fire bombing things destroyed many many business's

    the inner city real estate is nothing like back east. but they have got to get a handle on the homeless..  city / state reversed the law that made all drugs legal that was a bone head move .. and they finally figured that one out.. the next one they need to reverse is that any theft under 900.00 basically is just a ticket and not enforced thats also led to the rampant theft that has closed down numerous business's .  another stupid law/idea.

    But that all said RE values are still basically holding within 10% of their highs.. Condo market down town is soft.  But suburbs are very robust for us new home builders.

    it is coming back slowly but it will come back if the city just gets their act together with law and order. which is starting to happen the ultra liberal politicians are losing local elections.

     Thank you for the insight. How is home building in your area (Suburban Portland). In terms of finding raw land, and zoning to develop successfully and turn a profit. 

    In my market - Suburban PA - everything is already so built up, and barely any raw land. New construction is very low margin game...

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  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Berridge Thomas:

    @Alan Asriants

    Alan, great summarization of Philly. I am a carpenter who works on many projects throughout the city. Currently working in old city, we have noticed the same things you speak of. It is basically a dump. I'm not sure why people want to move there. It's literally disgusting and many areas are "lipstick on a pig" areas. Gentrification is struggling in my opinion. The projects that are going up are built with less than qualified help, cheap materials and rushed to the point of poor craftsmanship all around. I've also worked on several projects in northern liberties, specifically the Piazza. I wont go into details about that place, but i wouldn't feel safe walking my dog there at all. My catalytic converter was stolen there 2 yrs ago while I was working.


     Preach. Thanks for adding about the condition of the construction. Its atrocious. Everything is so dirty. No one cares for how things look. its pretty sad IMO

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  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Calvin Thomas:

    Major cities have a leadership issue; there is none. So, NYC, Newark, Jersey City, Philadelphia, New Haven, Hartford, etc. are all having issues with crime and affordability.  The problem is, many of these cities started out by expanding services to make it easier to afford to live there.  However, when you have cashless bail, police afraid to enforce or not able enforce law and order, and people being incentivized not to work; what do they think will happen?  

    Philly always had the ability to become a great city; but the people who are elected just hurt the hand that feeds it.  Crime is on the rise, property protections for landlords is nearly non-existent, and development is leaving the area for more favorable regulations.  What does the city expect will happen when you tie the hands of the police department and make the regulations so dire for investment; why would any major developer go and invest in the city?

    The city has and will always have potential, but they need to hire/elect outside people to run the city like a business.  If not, it's just going to turn into a mini-Chicago.


     Great points, and now taxes are going up 25%+ in some area. Who would want to stay??? Force the values down, people keep moving out. The people elected are really the problem. So much potential. 

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  • Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    2y

    The bigger cities in the Carolinas are doing well (Greenville-SC, Charlotte-NC, Raleigh-NC).  Local leadership and planning play a big part in that occurring and whether it will continue.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Alan Asriants:
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
    As for Portland its downtown while business wise has been really hurt.. and its started with the
    BLM riots ( or should i say peaceful protest) that and those nice Antifa folks fire bombing things destroyed many many business's

    the inner city real estate is nothing like back east. but they have got to get a handle on the homeless..  city / state reversed the law that made all drugs legal that was a bone head move .. and they finally figured that one out.. the next one they need to reverse is that any theft under 900.00 basically is just a ticket and not enforced thats also led to the rampant theft that has closed down numerous business's .  another stupid law/idea.

    But that all said RE values are still basically holding within 10% of their highs.. Condo market down town is soft.  But suburbs are very robust for us new home builders.

    it is coming back slowly but it will come back if the city just gets their act together with law and order. which is starting to happen the ultra liberal politicians are losing local elections.

     Thank you for the insight. How is home building in your area (Suburban Portland). In terms of finding raw land, and zoning to develop successfully and turn a profit. 

    In my market - Suburban PA - everything is already so built up, and barely any raw land. New construction is very low margin game...


    finding land is the hard part with all the national builders moving in ..  still can be very profitable though.. I know I looked at some new construction out in lehigh valley and those numbers were far to tight for me.  AS for Portland or Multnomah county I will never build there again and I am not the only one.. the city has driven a lot of folks out of the market of course its all in fill there.
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Mike Dymski:

    The bigger cities in the Carolinas are doing well (Greenville-SC, Charlotte-NC, Raleigh-NC).  Local leadership and planning play a big part in that occurring and whether it will continue.


    Mike I finally got another lot in Charleston SC.. that market is really something.. took me two years to find one though :)  
  • Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
    Quote from @Mike Dymski:

    The bigger cities in the Carolinas are doing well (Greenville-SC, Charlotte-NC, Raleigh-NC).  Local leadership and planning play a big part in that occurring and whether it will continue.


    Mike I finally got another lot in Charleston SC.. that market is really something.. took me two years to find one though :)  

    Nice!  When I was in my 20s and 30s, it was easy to get a hotel room or rental home, spot on the beach, table at a restaurant, and traffic was a nonevent.  That all has changed.  We've been going to Edisto Beach or Harbor Island the last few years for a slower pace.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Mike Dymski:
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:
    Quote from @Mike Dymski:

    The bigger cities in the Carolinas are doing well (Greenville-SC, Charlotte-NC, Raleigh-NC).  Local leadership and planning play a big part in that occurring and whether it will continue.


    Mike I finally got another lot in Charleston SC.. that market is really something.. took me two years to find one though :)  

    Nice!  When I was in my 20s and 30s, it was easy to get a hotel room or rental home, spot on the beach, table at a restaurant, and traffic was a nonevent.  That all has changed.  We've been going to Edisto Beach or Harbor Island the last few years for a slower pace.


    we don't really get to be tourist when we are in Charleston we are working.. but we do enjoy the Restaurant scene and its a cool city.
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