Cape Coral / Ft. Myers / SWFL Market Update Nov 2024

Cape Coral / Ft. Myers / SWFL Market Update Nov 2024

Adam BartomeoBusiness Member
Real Estate Broker · Cape Coral, FL · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes

Below is the market update that I sent to all of the owners that we work with. We send these out once every 3 -6 months. The format didn't transfer directly to BP, so, make sure that you scroll all the way to the bottom. Please let me know if you have any questions.

November 2024 Market Update
Our market updates over the past 2 years have hopefully prepared you for the declining market that we are currently experiencing. In the June 2024 update, I said “All indications are that it will get worse before it will get better”, and this has proven to be true. Based on today’s update we are still amid that declining market. We are currently experiencing another downward push on rental prices (we are continuing to reduce rents), an increase in vacancies, and an increase in time to fill units. We have been in contact with other individuals throughout the state and they are all saying the same thing – prices are down, time to fill units is up, and evictions are up. Below is the factual data.

Rental Inventory & Median Rental Prices (The data is for Ft Myers and Cape Coral)
As stated in previous updates throughout the year, we were expecting an increase in inventory and a decrease in rental pricing. YOY we went from a low of 1,803 to a high of 2,209 which is a 22.5% increase in inventory. From May – Oct it appeared the inventory leveled out but in November we are currently seeing a 200 unit increase over October. Which is the reason for this update.
The median rental price has a direct correlation to the increased inventory. As you can see in the charts and we saw decreasing rents from May – Oct while at the same time inventory increased. In November we have seen the same exact pattern – inventory increased, prices are dropping, and the time to procure a qualified tenant increased. This month we have matched our highest vacancies, 49 (May of 2024).
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Sales Numbers
As you look at the chart you will see that almost all of the YOY numbers are going in the wrong direction; Median Price – 3%, Closed Sales -13%, DOM + 54.3%, Inventory +15.1%, and MOS +32.3%. As we sit in November, I can tell you that the inventory numbers, as of today, are above 5,000, which is 1,000 over October. It seemed like once Trump won the race that a flood of inventory came on the market. Real estate is VERY slow to react and will take a minimum of a year before we see how the Presidents economic policies affect us. In my opinion, the folks that blindly listed their properties based on the presidential election will force the prices down even further. We will truly know the outcome once we are in season and can see what the buyer’s market turns into.

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Future
With the current reduction in interest rates (.5% and .25%) we may see a slight increase in home sales. It normally takes at least a 1% reduction and several months before it is actually realized in real estate sales. I am confident that “Drill Baby Drill” (aka reducing the price of oil, aka reducing everything that is transported) will directly impact the cost of goods thus increasing tenants and buyers purchasing power. I am also confident that we will see a decrease in interest rates throughout the next year. I am not confident that the deportation of illegals will help with the pressures of declining rents or reducing inventory. My crystal ball tells me that if all goes well, we should see stabilization of rents and sales prices somewhere between March – October. And, just maybe, an increase towards the end of the year.

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  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    1y

    U also are fighting all the investor who flooded int to build new homes for rental purposes so OVER supply.. and we know a ton of those got stuck with bad builders and are being worked out so supply is going to keep coming in .. I suspect most of those folks will  be somewhat upside down if you take in all the interest they paid on half built homes and the cost to put those homes back into production.

    How are lot prices in Lehigh ?? I know those lots have yo yo d since they were created.. 

  • Adam BartomeoBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Broker · Cape Coral, FL · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    U also are fighting all the investor who flooded int to build new homes for rental purposes so OVER supply.. and we know a ton of those got stuck with bad builders and are being worked out so supply is going to keep coming in .. I suspect most of those folks will  be somewhat upside down if you take in all the interest they paid on half built homes and the cost to put those homes back into production.

    How are lot prices in Lehigh ?? I know those lots have yo yo d since they were created.. 


     There are 200 that are $20k or less.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Adam Bartomeo:
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    U also are fighting all the investor who flooded int to build new homes for rental purposes so OVER supply.. and we know a ton of those got stuck with bad builders and are being worked out so supply is going to keep coming in .. I suspect most of those folks will  be somewhat upside down if you take in all the interest they paid on half built homes and the cost to put those homes back into production.

    How are lot prices in Lehigh ?? I know those lots have yo yo d since they were created.. 


     There are 200 that are $20k or less.


    I was on a Senate Steering committee way back in 85 on how to deal with all the platted antiquated lots in CA. there are millions lots created before the modern rules and these lots exist today but many are not buildable and are traded back and forth from tax sale buyers to retail buyers who dont realize their 5k lot in CA is non buildable.

    So there was a big conference in FT. Meyers to discuss this nationwide and Lehigh was the poster child for massive subdivisions allowed to be platted without enough infrastructure to allow a full build out..  IE at the time if you built on all the hundreds of thousands of lots there you would have perpetual grid lock not to mention water quality etc etc. So lots were trading at 500. to maybe 3k in the day.. then they shoot up to 10k and when there is a boom they will shoot up to 30 to 40k only to drop back down to 10k I have watched those prices all these years.. And anytime you have that cheap of lots that are buildable you can get a building boom that will far surpass normal absorption liike what we are seeing now or saw what 3 years ago  or so.. builders / GCs taking on 50 jobs at once with no hope of ever being able to deliver simply not enough subs and such to keep up.  

    This happening in 05 to 08 and there were builders with 50 to 200 specs and they lost them all I bid on a 100 home package in 08 the houses were selling for 225k to 250k in 06 ish and we were in contract for 120k each.. I got skiddish and did not close.. same houses a year later are going to sale at the courthouse steps for 30 to 60k.. I bought half a dozen of them.
    I would tell folks at the time with 30k brand new homes that Lehigh was probably one of the cheapest places in US if not the world to live everything considered US medical and fire and police etc etc and no state income tax.

    So here we are today de ja vu all over again with hundreds of investors stuck with half built houses and a the vast majority of all these were spec for rental purposes not to live in.. So you bring on all this inventory and sure prices are going to drop and rents will as well.
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