Why BRRRR is not an effective strategy today...

Why BRRRR is not an effective strategy today...

Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

Margins in the market today are extremely tight. The best deals I find are usually the result of an agent's lack of familiarity with the area or a very poor listing presentation. Even in those cases, it's difficult to create a significant gap between the purchase price, rehab costs, and ARV (After Repair Value).

Investing in today's market is incredibly challenging, and I've found that the BRRRR strategy is one of the least effective approaches right now.

Let's keep in mind that BRRRR gained popularity before 2020. Back then, the market was more stable, interest rates were below 4.5%, and distressed properties sold at significant discounts.

Today, distressed properties often sell at a premium, and cash-out refinance rates are above 8%.

The best BRRRR deal I can find today involves buying a property with cash, investing in the rehab with cash, pulling out 75% of the ARV and breaking even on rent and mortgage. However, even in these cases, you typically leave a small amount of money in the deal and only break even before accounting for vacancy, repairs, and other expenses. For example, you might leave $10,000–$25,000 in the deal, end up with a $3,000 monthly payment, and only collect $3,000 (or slightly less) in rent.

This applies to my local market and primarily to Class B or higher real estate.

You’re better off finding a solid property that needs only light cosmetic work (e.g., paint, flooring, or perhaps a kitchen or bathroom remodel), buying it at a decent discount, and putting down at least 25%. This approach gives you access to better loan terms and makes the investment more feasible.

In my market, the BRRRR strategy only works if you purchase an absolute steal from the seller—and deals like that are virtually nonexistent. Even if you do find such a deal, getting it to cash flow after repairs and a cash-out refinance is extremely difficult, especially for single-family homes. This is because there's a cap on how much someone is willing to pay to rent a home today.

For example, even if you own a solid property worth over $600,000, the maximum rent you can charge in my area is $4,000 per month. Even at that price point, you may struggle to find a tenant, potentially leaving the property vacant for months.

Here’s an example of a deal I’m currently working on:

  • Purchase Price: $215,000
  • Rehab Costs: ~$250,000
  • ARV: ~$615,000
  • Potential Rent: $3,600/month

Using a $615,000 ARV and 75% LTV on the cash out refinance, with taxes and insurance, my monthly payment would be $4,267 using an 8.5% rate. This also leaves me with $3,750 stuck in the deal (not including financing and closing costs, which could easily add another $20,000).

In total, if I had to include closing costs and financing costs, I’d have about $23,000 (if not more) tied up in the deal and lose close to $700/month before accounting for expenses. While I would have built $150,000 in equity, the cash flow simply doesn’t work.

Now, let's compare this to the market conditions when BRRRR was highly promoted (pre-2020).

  • Interest Rate: 4.75%
  • Monthly Payment: $3,057/month
  • Rent: $3,600/month

In this scenario, I’d be making over $500/month with $23,000 left in the deal, resulting in a gross 26% cash-on-cash return—an excellent deal.

As you can see, rates and prices play a critical role in the viability of the BRRRR strategy. Even with a great deal, it's tough to make it work in today's market.

This is the reality we’re facing now.

Alan Asriants - New Century Real Estate 591 Reviews
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Drew SygitBusiness Member
Property Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 12k+ posts · 9k+ votes
1y

The Real Estate Crash of 2008-2010 caused real estate prices to crash across the country - but didn't affect rent amounts. This caused a historically unique opportunity for investors - they could buy Class A properties and immediately cashflow when renting them out.

This couldn't last forever, and it didn't, as excited new investors drove up prices.

Eventually, Class A property values increased to the point that even increasing rents didn't allow them to cashflow upon purchase.

So, the flood of new investors switched to buying Class B properties.

COVID created a chaotic spike in both the sale & rental markets, attracting even more new real estate investors. According to CoreLogic, in December of 2023, almost 30% of home sales were to investors!

Investment also spiked in Class A Short-Term Rentals (STR) and investors started paying higher and higher prices based upon anticipated STR rental rates, that exceeded sustainability based upon Long-Term Rental rates (LTR).

Now we're seeing investors pouring money into buying Class C rentals - but, many are getting burned.

In our experience & opinion, the main determinant of property Class is not location or even property condition, those are #2 and #3. The #1 determinant is the Tenant Pool.

If you don't believe us, try putting several Class D tenants in Class A apartment buildings and watch what happens. Or try the reverse - rehab a property to Class A standards in a Class D neighborhood and try to get a Class A or B tenant to rent it.

Unfortunately, many newbie real estate investors are jumping into buying affordable Class C rentals - expecting Class A results. In our opinion, Class C tenants have FICO scores from 560 to 620 - where their chance of default/nonpayment is 15-22%. See the chart from Fair Isaac Company (FICO) below:

FICO Score

Pct of Population

Default Probability

800 or more

13.00%

1.00%

750-799

27.00%

1.00%

700-749

18.00%

4.40%

650-699

15.00%

8.90%

600-649

12.00%

15.80%

550-599

8.00%

22.50%

500-549

5.00%

28.40%

Less than 499

2.00%

41.00%

Source: Fair Isaac Company

According to this chart, investors should use corresponding vacancy+tenant-nonperformance factors of approximately 5% for Class A rentals, 10% for Class B and 20% for Class C.

To address Class C payment challenges, many industry "experts" are now selling programs to newbie investors about how Section 8 tenants are the cure. If only it was that easy. Yes, the government pays the Section 8 rent timely, but more and more tenants are having to pay a portion of their rent. Then there are the challenges with Section 8 tenants paying utilities and taking care of their rental property.

Investors should fully understand that Section 8 is not a cure-all for Class C & D tenant challenges, it's just trading one set of problems for another.

We see too many investors not doing enough research to fully understand all this and making naïve investing decisions.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Rental Property Investor · New Braunfels, TX · Member since 2022 · 409 posts · 408 votes
    1y
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:

    you are probably feeling like BRRR doesn't work because you are trying to turn a 600k house into a rental. It would be hard to cash flow on a 600k house that has 3600 in rent regardless of the broader economic situation going on in society.

    i find that when someone says BRRR doesn't work anymore they end up meaning it doesn't work well for the specific types of real estate that they want to buy. And I've got no qualm with someone saying they aren't doing BRRR anymore but the bolder "brrr is not effective today" is in my view not very accurate. 

    Funny you mentioned a $600K house doesn’t pencil out as a rental. This just got sent to me this am. 

     https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/01/cost-of-constructing-a-home...

  • Member since 2018 · 113 posts · 136 votes
    1y

    IMO, BRRRR can be a decent strategy for the right person in 2025, and it's what I'm doing right now. I certainly understand it's not a "home run", and it's also not as good as it used to be in 2012-2019!

    I am in my working years, not relying on rental income, and am focusing mostly on improving my overall net worth (not as focused on living off the cash flow). Once my net worth gets high enough, I’ll probably 1031 into higher cash flow  investments.

    In my area, a quality B class SFH is worth approximately 300k, so if I'm all in 240k, my net worth went up. I am getting a mortgage for about $175k, putting 70k down, and the rent of approx $1900 is a near breakeven cash flow investment when I self manage.

    I am sure there are investors out there getting better returns than this, but I am a busy working man with a family and I am playing the long game. I can always sell if I change my mind, and hopefully make a few bucks, worst case break even, since I am buying at discounts.

    With BRRRRR, an often ignored benefit is the security (if done well) of being all in 75-85% of ARV. I've lost a lot of money on my 3rd deal, and it was very distasteful.

    I am keeping my eye open for better strategies, just haven't found one that's fits me better than BRRRRR at the moment.

  • Eric FernwoodBusiness Member
    Realtor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2014 · 996 posts · 1k+ votes
    1y

    Hi @Alan Asriants,

    I agree that the traditional BRRRR strategy is ineffective in today's market. This is primarily due to two key factors: low inventory (leading to tight margins) and high interest rates. However, real estate investing is long-term, and markets are always changing. What doesn't work today may work in the future.

    Another challenge with the traditional BRRRR model is the resulting high debt load often isn't fully covered by rental income, especially in today's high-rate environment. A more viable approach could be a straight 75% cash-out refinance—but only if you’ve invested in a city with strong, sustained population growth. This growth typically drives significant appreciation, which is the key to making this strategy work.

    For example:

    Let’s say you purchase a property for $300,000 with 25% down in a market with an 8% annual appreciation rate. How long would it take before a 75% cash-out refinance allows you to pay off the mortgage and have enough cash for a 25% down payment on another property priced at $350,000?

    • Year 1: $300,000 × (1 + 8%)¹ × 75% - $300,000 × (1 - 25%) ≈ $18,000
    • Year 2: $300,000 × (1 + 8%)² × 75% - $300,000 × (1 - 25%) ≈ $37,440
    • Year 3: $300,000 × (1 + 8%)³ × 75% - $300,000 × (1 - 25%) ≈ $58,435
    • Year 4: $300,000 × (1 + 8%)⁴ × 75% - $300,000 × (1 - 25%) ≈ $81,110
    • Year 5: $300,000 × (1 + 8%)⁵ × 75% - $300,000 × (1 - 25%) ≈ $105,599

    After about four years, you’d have enough equity to cover your next property's $87,500 down payment (25% of $350,000). However, the success of this approach hinges on consistent appreciation, which depends on demand.

    The Key Factors to Consider

    • Price Dynamics: Prices are driven by the balance between buyers and sellers. With more sellers than buyers, prices will fall until equilibrium is reached. Conversely, if there are more buyers than sellers, prices will rise.
    • Rental Demand: Rents are closely tied to prices. Fewer people can afford to buy when prices are high, increasing demand for rentals and driving up rents. When prices drop, rental demand decreases, putting downward pressure on rents.

    The Takeaway

    The critical factor for success with this strategy is location—specifically, investing in areas with significant and sustained population growth. This growth fuels demand, drives appreciation, and ultimately makes strategies like BRRRR or cash-out refinancing viable over the long term.

    FERNWOOD Team, KW VIP Realty520 Reviews
  • Rental Property Investor · Baltimore MD · Member since 2017 · 26 posts · 11 votes
    1y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:

    you are probably feeling like BRRR doesn't work because you are trying to turn a 600k house into a rental. It would be hard to cash flow on a 600k house that has 3600 in rent regardless of the broader economic situation going on in society.

    i find that when someone says BRRR doesn't work anymore they end up meaning it doesn't work well for the specific types of real estate that they want to buy. And I've got no qualm with someone saying they aren't doing BRRR anymore but the bolder "brrr is not effective today" is in my view not very accurate. 

    Funny you mentioned a $600K house doesn’t pencil out as a rental. This just got sent to me this am. 

     https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/01/cost-of-constructing-a-home...


    cool break down thanks for sharing! This seems to be breaking down new construction and is a national average so kind of hard to read into this what it means in general but I would not expect a 665k new construction house to be my target for a rental property. 

    Im a medium sized operator - 46 units- and my typical deal has an ARV from 200 to 230 when its finished. Wich goes back to my comment to the initial poster. people who want to buy homes in DC and top markets like that are the ones saying BRRR is impossible right now. Im not even sure that it is impossible in those markets but the main issue is that BRRR isnt working where they want to buy not that BRRR doesnt work.

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:

    you are probably feeling like BRRR doesn't work because you are trying to turn a 600k house into a rental. It would be hard to cash flow on a 600k house that has 3600 in rent regardless of the broader economic situation going on in society.

    i find that when someone says BRRR doesn't work anymore they end up meaning it doesn't work well for the specific types of real estate that they want to buy. And I've got no qualm with someone saying they aren't doing BRRR anymore but the bolder "brrr is not effective today" is in my view not very accurate. 

    Funny you mentioned a $600K house doesn’t pencil out as a rental. This just got sent to me this am. 

     https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/01/cost-of-constructing-a-home...


    cool break down thanks for sharing! This seems to be breaking down new construction and is a national average so kind of hard to read into this what it means in general but I would not expect a 665k new construction house to be my target for a rental property. 

    Im a medium sized operator - 46 units- and my typical deal has an ARV from 200 to 230 when its finished. Wich goes back to my comment to the initial poster. people who want to buy homes in DC and top markets like that are the ones saying BRRR is impossible right now. Im not even sure that it is impossible in those markets but the main issue is that BRRR isnt working where they want to buy not that BRRR doesnt work.


    A typical BRRRR in DC creates $200k in equity. Seems pretty good to me.

  • Rental Property Investor · Baltimore MD · Member since 2017 · 26 posts · 11 votes
    1y
    Quote from @Russell Brazil:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:

    you are probably feeling like BRRR doesn't work because you are trying to turn a 600k house into a rental. It would be hard to cash flow on a 600k house that has 3600 in rent regardless of the broader economic situation going on in society.

    i find that when someone says BRRR doesn't work anymore they end up meaning it doesn't work well for the specific types of real estate that they want to buy. And I've got no qualm with someone saying they aren't doing BRRR anymore but the bolder "brrr is not effective today" is in my view not very accurate. 

    Funny you mentioned a $600K house doesn’t pencil out as a rental. This just got sent to me this am. 

     https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/01/cost-of-constructing-a-home...


    cool break down thanks for sharing! This seems to be breaking down new construction and is a national average so kind of hard to read into this what it means in general but I would not expect a 665k new construction house to be my target for a rental property. 

    Im a medium sized operator - 46 units- and my typical deal has an ARV from 200 to 230 when its finished. Wich goes back to my comment to the initial poster. people who want to buy homes in DC and top markets like that are the ones saying BRRR is impossible right now. Im not even sure that it is impossible in those markets but the main issue is that BRRR isnt working where they want to buy not that BRRR doesnt work.


    A typical BRRRR in DC creates $200k in equity. Seems pretty good to me.


    thats awesome! sounds like your a good example of what i mentioned saying that BRRR isnt dead. If you are doing BRRR in markets like DC its further demonstration that these narratives are not accurate.

    Thats not my model and homes at that price point havent penciled out for me but im very much doing BRRR in my market with properties that do pencil. we add ~50k-60k of equity per BRRR on properties around 200-230k ARV

  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y

    BRRR still pencil in expensive areas.

    Don't pencil as well in others, but still solid. The 2011-2020 comparisons need to drop, we are reverting to the mean right now. The decade preceding it was just an outlier. Have to move on.

  • Real Estate Agent · Washington DC · Member since 2016 · 847 posts · 656 votes
    1y
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
    Quote from @Russell Brazil:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:

    you are probably feeling like BRRR doesn't work because you are trying to turn a 600k house into a rental. It would be hard to cash flow on a 600k house that has 3600 in rent regardless of the broader economic situation going on in society.

    i find that when someone says BRRR doesn't work anymore they end up meaning it doesn't work well for the specific types of real estate that they want to buy. And I've got no qualm with someone saying they aren't doing BRRR anymore but the bolder "brrr is not effective today" is in my view not very accurate. 

    Funny you mentioned a $600K house doesn’t pencil out as a rental. This just got sent to me this am. 

     https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/01/cost-of-constructing-a-home...


    cool break down thanks for sharing! This seems to be breaking down new construction and is a national average so kind of hard to read into this what it means in general but I would not expect a 665k new construction house to be my target for a rental property. 

    Im a medium sized operator - 46 units- and my typical deal has an ARV from 200 to 230 when its finished. Wich goes back to my comment to the initial poster. people who want to buy homes in DC and top markets like that are the ones saying BRRR is impossible right now. Im not even sure that it is impossible in those markets but the main issue is that BRRR isnt working where they want to buy not that BRRR doesnt work.


    A typical BRRRR in DC creates $200k in equity. Seems pretty good to me.


    thats awesome! sounds like your a good example of what i mentioned saying that BRRR isnt dead. If you are doing BRRR in markets like DC its further demonstration that these narratives are not accurate.

    Thats not my model and homes at that price point havent penciled out for me but im very much doing BRRR in my market with properties that do pencil. we add ~50k-60k of equity per BRRR on properties around 200-230k ARV

    You can definitely create equity in D.C. though the 200k listed above is highly unlikely, the biggest issue is at those price points you are deep in the red cash flow wise after refinancing.
  • Gavin SoutoPro Member
    Investor · NY · Member since 2024 · 11 posts · 3 votes
    1y

    brrrr still works it's just not as easy to turn around quickly. It's more like BRR(hold)RR now.

  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Drew Sygit:

    The Real Estate Crash of 2008-2010 caused real estate prices to crash across the country - but didn't affect rent amounts. This caused a historically unique opportunity for investors - they could buy Class A properties and immediately cashflow when renting them out.

    This couldn't last forever, and it didn't, as excited new investors drove up prices.

    Eventually, Class A property values increased to the point that even increasing rents didn't allow them to cashflow upon purchase.

    So, the flood of new investors switched to buying Class B properties.

    COVID created a chaotic spike in both the sale & rental markets, attracting even more new real estate investors. According to CoreLogic, in December of 2023, almost 30% of home sales were to investors!

    Investment also spiked in Class A Short-Term Rentals (STR) and investors started paying higher and higher prices based upon anticipated STR rental rates, that exceeded sustainability based upon Long-Term Rental rates (LTR).

    Now we're seeing investors pouring money into buying Class C rentals - but, many are getting burned.

    In our experience & opinion, the main determinant of property Class is not location or even property condition, those are #2 and #3. The #1 determinant is the Tenant Pool.

    If you don't believe us, try putting several Class D tenants in Class A apartment buildings and watch what happens. Or try the reverse - rehab a property to Class A standards in a Class D neighborhood and try to get a Class A or B tenant to rent it.

    Unfortunately, many newbie real estate investors are jumping into buying affordable Class C rentals - expecting Class A results. In our opinion, Class C tenants have FICO scores from 560 to 620 - where their chance of default/nonpayment is 15-22%. See the chart from Fair Isaac Company (FICO) below:

    FICO Score

    Pct of Population

    Default Probability

    800 or more

    13.00%

    1.00%

    750-799

    27.00%

    1.00%

    700-749

    18.00%

    4.40%

    650-699

    15.00%

    8.90%

    600-649

    12.00%

    15.80%

    550-599

    8.00%

    22.50%

    500-549

    5.00%

    28.40%

    Less than 499

    2.00%

    41.00%

    Source: Fair Isaac Company

    According to this chart, investors should use corresponding vacancy+tenant-nonperformance factors of approximately 5% for Class A rentals, 10% for Class B and 20% for Class C.

    To address Class C payment challenges, many industry "experts" are now selling programs to newbie investors about how Section 8 tenants are the cure. If only it was that easy. Yes, the government pays the Section 8 rent timely, but more and more tenants are having to pay a portion of their rent. Then there are the challenges with Section 8 tenants paying utilities and taking care of their rental property.

    Investors should fully understand that Section 8 is not a cure-all for Class C & D tenant challenges, it's just trading one set of problems for another.

    We see too many investors not doing enough research to fully understand all this and making naïve investing decisions.


     This was a great breakdown! This kind of investing is usually short sighted and focused only on immediate returns without taking into considering long term vision and investment.

    Excellent point about trying to put Class C tenants into Class A properties and vice versa.

    The first one will create lots of vacancy, deferred maintenance, loss of rental income, increase in evictions etc. 

    The latter would be very difficult to acheive as class A renters are HIGHLY unlikely to move into class C locations. 

    I haven't met a single landlord that has been doing Section 8 class D and c rentals for longer than 10 years. 

    I had a client that got out recently and just offloaded his entire portfolio. Had he simply bought the properties 10 years ago like he did and left them vacant for this entire time he would've made way more off of them then what he did trying to rent them out and manage them. From all of the evictions, loss of rent, repairs and renovations, he lost way more.

    This is a long term game. you cannot expect returns in the first few years in this kind of market. you must expect them in the next 10+ years. and then work on paying of your debt. 

    A couple of awesome class A paid of rentals will be a great investment and retirement strategy for most. 

    Alan Asriants - New Century Real Estate 591 Reviews
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  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Russell Brazil:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:

    you are probably feeling like BRRR doesn't work because you are trying to turn a 600k house into a rental. It would be hard to cash flow on a 600k house that has 3600 in rent regardless of the broader economic situation going on in society.

    i find that when someone says BRRR doesn't work anymore they end up meaning it doesn't work well for the specific types of real estate that they want to buy. And I've got no qualm with someone saying they aren't doing BRRR anymore but the bolder "brrr is not effective today" is in my view not very accurate. 

    Funny you mentioned a $600K house doesn’t pencil out as a rental. This just got sent to me this am. 

     https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/01/cost-of-constructing-a-home...


    cool break down thanks for sharing! This seems to be breaking down new construction and is a national average so kind of hard to read into this what it means in general but I would not expect a 665k new construction house to be my target for a rental property. 

    Im a medium sized operator - 46 units- and my typical deal has an ARV from 200 to 230 when its finished. Wich goes back to my comment to the initial poster. people who want to buy homes in DC and top markets like that are the ones saying BRRR is impossible right now. Im not even sure that it is impossible in those markets but the main issue is that BRRR isnt working where they want to buy not that BRRR doesnt work.


    A typical BRRRR in DC creates $200k in equity. Seems pretty good to me.


     It is not that good at the price point of DC or in my market (but better than my market).  My market $155k average flipper equity gain according to Attom.   Flippers get a 20% equity gain.  I am assuming brrrr do similar but in reality, due to conservative nature of refi appraisals, I suspect they achieve less valuation if based on the refi appraisal.

    https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2024/12/16/home-flippin...

    “Attom said the median price for a home flip purchase was $760,000 in San Diego County and sold for $915,000. That’s a 20% return on investment before expenses, down from 26.1% at the same time last year. The average for the U.S. in the third quarter was a 28.7% return on investment.

    It’s impossible to know what every flipper in the U.S. spent to remake homes but Attom said the 28.7% return is within a range that could be easily wiped out by renovation expenses, mortgage payments and property taxes.”

    My large last extensive rehab was a little unit and I spent over $100k and I have done quite a few rehabs (3 last year, so hopefully my cost is competitive with what can be achieved).  Fortunately it was a location with a PSF of ~$1.5k, so I added more than $100k of valuation (suspect I may not have quite achieved my $2 added for every $1 spent).

    But the bigger issue I see, if I add $200k of equity at hopefully a cost of no more than $100k it seems like maybe a good brrrr but what if it has expenses on a sustained hold that results in negative $1k/month?  I can sell and get ~$93k of that value add (using 7% selling costs) or I can hold and in 8 months have less of the value add present after accounting for the negative cash flow ($92k and decreasing monthly).

    My last two planned BRRRRs I never did the refi and one has over a $1m equity position. I have low 3% rate on a jumbo loan (valuation just over $3m after value add and 3 years of market appreciation). If I were to finance at current rates at max LTV it would have huge negative cash flow. The other is a similar situation but maybe $700k equity on a $2m valuation.

    If these were purchased at today’s rates, they scream flip and not to hold them.  Fortunately at my rate they have some cash flow and good appreciation.

    The rates make it rare that the brrrr is the best option available.  The equity gain is just one part of the equation on if brrrr is appropriate.

    Good luck

  • Rental Property Investor · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2021 · 774 posts · 501 votes
    1y
    Quote from @Alan Asriants:
    Quote from @Greg Kasmer:

    @Alan Asriants - I agree that BRRRRs are much harder nowadays. Seems like the higher interest rates haven't brought down prices enough to make the numbers work. I agree that investors need to expect to "leave some money in the deal" with a BRRRR, but if someone has the right long-term approach they can leave small amounts of money in several deals now and hopefully refinance down the road to create better cash flow.


     Absolutely. For some investments it makes sense. If I am leaving 20k in a deal but cash flowing 100/m on it, thats not that bad. But its another story if you leave money in the deal and also need to come out of pocket every month


     Agree! By leaving money in the deal your cash flow should at least be positive!

  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Jack Seiden:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
    Quote from @Russell Brazil:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Aaron Murphy:

    you are probably feeling like BRRR doesn't work because you are trying to turn a 600k house into a rental. It would be hard to cash flow on a 600k house that has 3600 in rent regardless of the broader economic situation going on in society.

    i find that when someone says BRRR doesn't work anymore they end up meaning it doesn't work well for the specific types of real estate that they want to buy. And I've got no qualm with someone saying they aren't doing BRRR anymore but the bolder "brrr is not effective today" is in my view not very accurate. 

    Funny you mentioned a $600K house doesn’t pencil out as a rental. This just got sent to me this am. 

     https://eyeonhousing.org/2025/01/cost-of-constructing-a-home...


    cool break down thanks for sharing! This seems to be breaking down new construction and is a national average so kind of hard to read into this what it means in general but I would not expect a 665k new construction house to be my target for a rental property. 

    Im a medium sized operator - 46 units- and my typical deal has an ARV from 200 to 230 when its finished. Wich goes back to my comment to the initial poster. people who want to buy homes in DC and top markets like that are the ones saying BRRR is impossible right now. Im not even sure that it is impossible in those markets but the main issue is that BRRR isnt working where they want to buy not that BRRR doesnt work.


    A typical BRRRR in DC creates $200k in equity. Seems pretty good to me.


    thats awesome! sounds like your a good example of what i mentioned saying that BRRR isnt dead. If you are doing BRRR in markets like DC its further demonstration that these narratives are not accurate.

    Thats not my model and homes at that price point havent penciled out for me but im very much doing BRRR in my market with properties that do pencil. we add ~50k-60k of equity per BRRR on properties around 200-230k ARV

    You can definitely create equity in D.C. though the 200k listed above is highly unlikely, the biggest issue is at those price points you are deep in the red cash flow wise after refinancing.

     Exactly. Even if you create that equity, cash flowing is the really problem. 

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  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @V.G Jason:

    BRRR still pencil in expensive areas.

    Don't pencil as well in others, but still solid. The 2011-2020 comparisons need to drop, we are reverting to the mean right now. The decade preceding it was just an outlier. Have to move on.


     Where do you see them penciling and what are you buying/renting those deals for?

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  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
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    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Eric Fernwood:

    Hi @Alan Asriants,

    I agree that the traditional BRRRR strategy is ineffective in today's market. This is primarily due to two key factors: low inventory (leading to tight margins) and high interest rates. However, real estate investing is long-term, and markets are always changing. What doesn't work today may work in the future.

    Another challenge with the traditional BRRRR model is the resulting high debt load often isn't fully covered by rental income, especially in today's high-rate environment. A more viable approach could be a straight 75% cash-out refinance—but only if you’ve invested in a city with strong, sustained population growth. This growth typically drives significant appreciation, which is the key to making this strategy work.

    For example:

    Let’s say you purchase a property for $300,000 with 25% down in a market with an 8% annual appreciation rate. How long would it take before a 75% cash-out refinance allows you to pay off the mortgage and have enough cash for a 25% down payment on another property priced at $350,000?

    • Year 1: $300,000 × (1 + 8%)¹ × 75% - $300,000 × (1 - 25%) ≈ $18,000
    • Year 2: $300,000 × (1 + 8%)² × 75% - $300,000 × (1 - 25%) ≈ $37,440
    • Year 3: $300,000 × (1 + 8%)³ × 75% - $300,000 × (1 - 25%) ≈ $58,435
    • Year 4: $300,000 × (1 + 8%)⁴ × 75% - $300,000 × (1 - 25%) ≈ $81,110
    • Year 5: $300,000 × (1 + 8%)⁵ × 75% - $300,000 × (1 - 25%) ≈ $105,599

    After about four years, you’d have enough equity to cover your next property's $87,500 down payment (25% of $350,000). However, the success of this approach hinges on consistent appreciation, which depends on demand.

    The Key Factors to Consider

    • Price Dynamics: Prices are driven by the balance between buyers and sellers. With more sellers than buyers, prices will fall until equilibrium is reached. Conversely, if there are more buyers than sellers, prices will rise.
    • Rental Demand: Rents are closely tied to prices. Fewer people can afford to buy when prices are high, increasing demand for rentals and driving up rents. When prices drop, rental demand decreases, putting downward pressure on rents.

    The Takeaway

    The critical factor for success with this strategy is location—specifically, investing in areas with significant and sustained population growth. This growth fuels demand, drives appreciation, and ultimately makes strategies like BRRRR or cash-out refinancing viable over the long term.


    A long term approach is always the goal when looking at any buy and hold deal IMO. If the area is good enough and you can create enough equity, it might be a better idea to take less LTV and leave more money in the deal to create some kid of cash flow.

    I would love to hold onto the property that I mentioned above because its an A+ area. In order for me to be cash flow positive (gross) I would have to leave about 95k-100k to make about 70 bucks a month. that's really tough for growth. 

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  • Matthew Irish-JonesBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Buffalo, NY · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    1y

    @Alan Asriants I continue to BRRR year in and year out. I'm not how you are defining a BRRR that works, but if I have a unit with brand new roof, mechanicals, kitchens, bathrooms, etc... and leave 10,15 or 20% in the deal I still feel like I'm winning. I have front loaded all of my risk, have the best units on the market, and got the deal for less than 25% down.

    Whats gone are the days of leaving 0% in the deal and getting infinite returns.  Although im not sure those every realy existed in the first place.  

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  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Alan Asriants:
    Quote from @V.G Jason:

    BRRR still pencil in expensive areas.

    Don't pencil as well in others, but still solid. The 2011-2020 comparisons need to drop, we are reverting to the mean right now. The decade preceding it was just an outlier. Have to move on.


     Where do you see them penciling and what are you buying/renting those deals for?


    You still absolutely have to keep money in the deal, but they still work. LTV needs to be 60-70%. The re-appraisals though give you a real big jump. Texas you definitely need to keep lower LTV to cash flow cause of taxes. Florida rental market is still potent.

    Most of my Raleigh, Nashville, Houston, Dallas, West Palm Beach one's are bought in the $400k-$700k range then I added $50-$150k in renovations. All have re-appraised significantly higher absolute value & percentage. 

    Just off the top of my head, I did one in WPB. Bought at $445k, $50k ish in reno, re-appraised at $625k. Kept 68% LTV, rents at $4,300/mo. Just signed an extension at $4,550 a little while ago that commences early March 2025. Cash flows "on paper", not in reality obviously. Actually this one does, cause I have had zero issues but again in reality it won't.

    Another one in WPB, bought $525 put in $110k it's a STR though but I got re-appraised at $850k. I keep low leverage in this one(15% Loan to Value), but it grosses very, very well. Raleigh & Nashville have plenty at 65-68% LTV.

    Only one's on paper that pencil in at 75-80% LTV are gutter one's like in the hood or affordable housing. I am liking buying all cash, rehabbing via HML, then re-financing getting a lot cash back keeping some in the deal, then renting it out. I usually take some of the recycled capital and buy a note to pair it with.

    Done a few in Madison, Wisconsin bought in the low 200s, re-appraised at at high 200s with $15-20k work. Mortgage is $1700-$1900, renting in the $2400-$2800 range. Mainly via students and separate room rentals. Same goes for Savannah and Knoxville, bought in the low 200s, re-appraised mid 300s. Kept 67-70% LTV and I rent for $2400-$3000, mortgages in the $2k ish range.

    Think the lowest LTV one's remain texas.

  • Alan AsriantsBusiness Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Matthew Irish-Jones:

    @Alan Asriants I continue to BRRR year in and year out. I'm not how you are defining a BRRR that works, but if I have a unit with brand new roof, mechanicals, kitchens, bathrooms, etc... and leave 10,15 or 20% in the deal I still feel like I'm winning. I have front loaded all of my risk, have the best units on the market, and got the deal for less than 25% down.

    Whats gone are the days of leaving 0% in the deal and getting infinite returns.  Although im not sure those every realy existed in the first place.  


     Agreed that leaving money in the deal is ok. But leaving over 30% and not cash flowing is too risky and a bad position. 
    Mulit family assets likely will preform better than single family in this case because of rent ceilings, but in my market, finding a solid MF deal with enough equity is very cahllenging. Last time MF was built in scale in my area was the mid 80s, and getting approval for MF construction is even more challenging/next to impossible. So when someone has a duplex+ that was built after 1970, its pretty much - set your price. 

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  • Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    1y
    Quote from @Gavin Souto:

    brrrr still works it's just not as easy to turn around quickly. It's more like BRR(hold)RR now.


    Yes!! 

    BRR(hold)RR.

    It has definitely changed. I have been BRRRR-ing in Milwaukee since 2009 and while it got progressively harder to find deals the game really changed after 2020. We went from buying light rehabs to buying major foundation and mold issues to make numbers work until even that did not work anymore.

    Even before only every 5th deal or so would truly allow to recycle all cash and generate 25% equity. My last few BRRRRs I ended up with negative equity, even though after a full gut rehab, still worth it in a market full of old houses. 

    The last 5 deals I bought were all basically move in ready, bought only at a slight discount after deals fell through. We did some paint, carpet and light fixtures - and let the market appreciation do the heavy lifting. 

    The median home price in Milwaukee went up 8.2% in 2024 - and I had to do nothing but wait, compared to a 4 month major construction job.

    So yeah: BRR(hold) and maybe refinace at some point if/when rates get lower

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