I pencil-underwrote every active 2-4 unit in Oxnard, CA. Here's what I found.
Real Estate Agent · Ventura County · Member since 2024 · 15 posts · 6 votes
I pencil-underwrote every active 2-4 unit in Oxnard, CA. Here's what I found.
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Lender · Washington DC · Member since 2026 · 75 posts · 21 votes
1wQuote from @Noelle Harrelson:
✏️Spent this morning running a pencil sheet on every active duplex in Oxnard zips 93030 and 93033 (5 listings, $750K-$929K).
Terms: 25% down, 7.25%, 30-yr, taxes at 1.25% of list price. NOI uses ~5% vacancy, plus insurance, maintenance and reserves.
Result: none clear 1.0x DSCR on in-place rents. Most land around 0.4-0.5x.
The five:
5340 S J: $929K, $5,550/mo, ~0.73x
1026 S C: $788K, ~$3,470/mo (est.), ~0.50x
141 S Hayes: $750K, $3,000/mo, ~0.44x
509 E Date: $788K, $3,148/mo, ~0.44x
639-641 W Kamala: $830K, ~$3,450/mo (est.), ~0.40x
Older duplexes ($750K-$830K) were renting about $1,100-$1,900 a door. The price that actually works at 1.25x on those rents is roughly $330K-$390K.
Best of the five was the remodeled duplex at $929K with ~$2,750/door rents. It would need about $8,100/mo total to hit 1.25x, versus $5,550 today.
A couple of caveats: two of the rents are estimates (marked above), and I used list price for property tax reassessment.
Right now it looks like an appreciation or owner-occupant play, not a cash-flow one. Is anyone finding 2-4s in Ventura County (or similar high-cost coastal markets) that pencil today? What assumptions would you change?
Great breakdown. The numbers really highlight how much purchase price and financing structure matter when underwriting rental properties. I'm an investor and real estate financing partner, and I’m always interested in connecting with people who take a numbers driven approach to acquisitions. Curious, are you actively looking for opportunities in Oxnard, or are you primarily analyzing the market right now?
16 Replies
- Lender · Washington DC · Member since 2026 · 75 posts · 21 votes1w
Quote from @Noelle Harrelson:
✏️Spent this morning running a pencil sheet on every active duplex in Oxnard zips 93030 and 93033 (5 listings, $750K-$929K).
Terms: 25% down, 7.25%, 30-yr, taxes at 1.25% of list price. NOI uses ~5% vacancy, plus insurance, maintenance and reserves.
Result: none clear 1.0x DSCR on in-place rents. Most land around 0.4-0.5x.
The five:
5340 S J: $929K, $5,550/mo, ~0.73x
1026 S C: $788K, ~$3,470/mo (est.), ~0.50x
141 S Hayes: $750K, $3,000/mo, ~0.44x
509 E Date: $788K, $3,148/mo, ~0.44x
639-641 W Kamala: $830K, ~$3,450/mo (est.), ~0.40x
Older duplexes ($750K-$830K) were renting about $1,100-$1,900 a door. The price that actually works at 1.25x on those rents is roughly $330K-$390K.
Best of the five was the remodeled duplex at $929K with ~$2,750/door rents. It would need about $8,100/mo total to hit 1.25x, versus $5,550 today.
A couple of caveats: two of the rents are estimates (marked above), and I used list price for property tax reassessment.
Right now it looks like an appreciation or owner-occupant play, not a cash-flow one. Is anyone finding 2-4s in Ventura County (or similar high-cost coastal markets) that pencil today? What assumptions would you change?
Great breakdown. The numbers really highlight how much purchase price and financing structure matter when underwriting rental properties. I'm an investor and real estate financing partner, and I’m always interested in connecting with people who take a numbers driven approach to acquisitions. Curious, are you actively looking for opportunities in Oxnard, or are you primarily analyzing the market right now?
- Real Estate Agent · Ventura County · Member since 2024 · 15 posts · 6 votes1w
Thanks, LaTarence! I'm a realtor in Oxnard, building my practice around serving investors, so I'm ready for the right deal when it comes along.
Since you're on the financing side: what DSCR minimums and rates are you seeing on 2-4 units in California right now? I used 7.25% and 25% down. Happy to compare notes.
- Technology · Member since 2023 · 79 posts · 38 votes6d
Your math reads right to me. One difference is worth adding: DSCR lenders usually use gross rent divided by PITIA, not NOI, so the number the lender sees is a bit higher than your 0.5x. For the $788K duplex at $3,470: 25% down is a $591K loan, P&I at 7.25% is about $4,030, taxes at 1.25% are about $820 and insurance about $200, so PITIA is around $5,050. That's about 0.69x on the lender's math. To get to 1.0x with the same rents, the price would need to be around $540K at 25% down, or about $600K at 35% down.
So I'd run these other cases:
- Owner-occupied. Live in one unit with a 2-4 unit owner-occupant loan (FHA or conventional, depending on limits) at a lower rate and 3.5-5% down. The rent from the other units offsets the payment, and the numbers look very different than on the investor sheet.
- Add an ADU. If the lot allows one, an extra unit at $1,800-$2,200 changes a 0.69x into something much closer to 1.0x.
- Price. List price vs. what it closes at. Your range needs about 30%-plus off to reach 1.0x, so I'd track which listings are sitting.
It does look like an appreciation or owner-occupant market, as you said.
- Real Estate Agent · Ventura County · Member since 2024 · 15 posts · 6 votes6d
Thanks, Hossein, good catch on PITIA. I was on NOI, so that's a helpful correction. I took your owner-occupant idea and ran it on the same $788K duplex ($3,470 total rent, living in one unit and renting the other for about $1,735):
- 5% down: about $39K (vs $197K at 25%)
- Loan about $749K at 7.25%
- PITI plus roughly $375 PMI: about $6,500/mo
- After the other unit's rent: about $4,770/mo net
So cash in drops a lot, but the rent only covers about a quarter of the payment at these prices. Does that match how you'd run it? Would love to compare numbers.
- 6dDivin KanyamaBusiness MemberAccountant · Seattle, WA · Member since 2025 · 433 posts · 172 votes
This is a useful reality check, @Noelle Harrelson . When in-place DSCR is only 0.4–0.7x, small assumption changes will not rescue the deal—the gap is structural. I'd still test actual insurance quotes, reassessed taxes, utility responsibility, realistic market rents, and whether owner-occupied financing changes the picture. But unless there is a credible value-add path, these look more like house-hack or long-term appreciation plays than cash-flow investments. The key is not forcing the underwriting to work just because the market is desirable.
- Real Estate Agent · Ventura County · Member since 2024 · 15 posts · 6 votes5d
Thanks, Divin. Agreed: at 0.4-0.7x DSCR, no assumption tweak fixes it. The gap is structural. I ran actives as a screen to see if any duplex in Oxnard gets close at ask, and none did.
I'm rerunning on closed sales to see how much negotiation closes the gap. Owner-occupied financing is one lever that could change the picture, since lower down payments make house-hack math work where investor loans don't.
Are you seeing owner-occupants set the price floor in your markets too?
- Real Estate Agent · Ventura County · Member since 2024 · 15 posts · 6 votes3d
Quick update, Divin: I reran this on closed sales (Oxnard and Port Hueneme core, 2-4 units). Over the last four years, buyers paid roughly 95-98% of original list, so negotiation takes about 2-5% off. Even the listings that sat 90+ days only took around 9-19% off.
For a 0.4-0.7x DSCR to get to a normal lending range, the price would need to drop by roughly half or more. So your read holds: the gap is structural, not a negotiation problem.
That leaves house-hack and long-term appreciation as the real buyer pool, which fits your point about owner-occupied financing. Appreciate the push to test insurance and taxes too!
>Spent this morning running a pencil sheet on every active duplex in Oxnard
Why would you use active listings? What would you think of an appraiser that used active listings? It is hopefully exactly what I think of your approach.
Run the closed listings. I saw spent you will see some significant difference. Know that would definitely be the case in my San Diego market.
Good luck
- Real Estate Agent · Ventura County · Member since 2024 · 15 posts · 6 votes5d
Fair point, Dan. I ran actives to see what's on the table right now: at asking, does any duplex in Oxnard come close to cash flowing?
That's a screen, not a valuation.
Closed sales are the real test, so I'll dig into those next.
What kind of list-to-close spread are you seeing on small multifamily in San Diego?
The listing versus selling delta has been widening since 2022. There are many non serious “sellers” in San Diego MF.
the overall San Diego RE is flattish over the last couple years but this is propped up by single family houses. MF, condos, townhouses have fallen significantly. In the case of MF, the sales have slowed significantly. I saw a duplex in Escondido (blue collar city in San Diego county) that both units were 3/1 sell at $699k. I believe that would have been near $1.2m 4 years ago. It is the cheapest I have seen since maybe 2018. I also have seen some duplex 2/1 that also are th3 cheapest I have seen in quite a few years.
To put it differently, for most of the time I have been investing in RE I consider Zillow low on my MF. Currently I consider it significantly high. My guess is MF is down more than condos and townhouses which I suspect are down ~25% as a rough estimate.
In San Diego only OO sf houses have not lost significant value.
I will say on most of the MF listed on mls in my market they have asking price as though it is 2021. The serious sellers lower their price far below the not serious listings.
If you perform the exercise I would be interested in
1) how far MF prices have dropped from their recent high in that market.
2) what is the delta between average list price and average sold price (not on the individual property but market wide). In particular, I question if the gap is similar to what I see in San Diego.
I may look to snag a quad in a class b area if the numbers improve just a tad more.
- Real Estate Agent · Ventura County · Member since 2024 · 15 posts · 6 votes3d
Thanks Dan, I love a good challenge! So I put on my nerd hat and reran this on closed sales only (no asking-price fantasy). Oxnard + Port Hueneme core (zips 93030, 93033, 93035, 93041), 2-4 units:
- 2022: 20 sales, sold at 96.8% of original list
- 2023-24: 33 sales, 97.6%
- 2025: 15 sales, 97.9%
- Last 12 months: 23 sales, 95.2%
So the list-to-sold gap is about 1-2 points wider than 2022. Noticeable, but not the big widening you're seeing in San Diego. Closed volume hasn't dried up either: 23 sales in the last 12 months vs. 20 in all of 2022.
On price: median list $/sf is down about 13% from 2022 ($454 to $395), but the mix shifted toward bigger properties, so I wouldn't call it a clean drop from the peak.
Your serious-vs-not-serious sellers theory holds up here, though. Priced-right listings close within 30 days at or near list. The ones that sit 90+ days take roughly 9-19% off original list.
Quads: 17 closed since 2022, median sold about $1.24M (roughly $310k/door), closing near 99% of original list, none sitting past 90 days. Small sample, so directional only.
I'll rerun it with the rest of both cities (North Oxnard and the other Port Hueneme zip) and post an update. Your turn: what are you seeing on quads in the Class B area you're eyeing?
I appreciate the effort but you missed the part that I did not want it on individual sales but the market as a whole. Serious sellers in my market usually have a more competitive initial price. That is why I wanted it market wide, not individual properties. So your result do not surprise me much (a little that it is that similar of a delta).
I suspect my market has a significantly bigger change than 13% on psf but as noted the numbers make more sense if broken out by unit count (quads usually have psf lower than triplex or duplex).
Now that you have the sold price, continue the exercise to determine monthly rent ratio on the sold properties
On the duplex 3/1, seeing it is the cheapest I have seen in quite a few years, I suspect it needed significant work to get to market rent but market rent is $3k to $3.2k per unit. So buy for $699k, rehab the units at maybe $50k/unit. All in for $800k with rent at $6k. 0.75% ratio with a lot of work but ideally value added in excess of the $100k cost of the value add (I only take on a value add if it project 2x return to n the cost of the value add).
At today's rates my underwriting would still have this as negative cash flow at 75% LTV. Negative but not nearly as negative as a couple/few years ago. But really with an initial sweat equity in my example of $100k. That sweat equity can absorb many months (years) of the fairly low negative cash flow.
By the way this price decline in my market makes sense to me. The prices rose to a lofty level during a time when max rent increases (CPI + 5%, capped at 10%), or close to max rent increases, were common and appreciation was at least 5%/year (and sometimes far over 5%) for the previous decade. Everyone was eager to make big money in RE. They figured even if it had large cash flow, it would improve fast. The reality in my market is the last few years have been flattish on rents. The negative cash flow at purchase is likely still present and may have increased (especially if they needed to change to CA Fair for fire protection). This has cooled the MF market to realities that the cash flow does not always improve quickly. So the market cools and MF sales slow way down. This results in a lowering of the price. So those that purchased in 2022 or 2023 in my market with negative cash flow based on the past decade of performance likely have not seen the cash flow improve significantly and have seen their value drop.
Another issue is that commercial MF cap rates have risen in many/most markets driving down the value of 5+ units. If you can purchase 5 units for less than 4 units then the 4 unit prices have to drop which effects the 3 unit which in turn effect the duplexes.
SF houses because they are virtually all OO, do not hold to the same rules.
Question for me is do I want more LTR units and if so why? i have enough money, so is there something I enjoy more than the hustle of RE investing (I get great pleasure from my RE investing, especially sophisticated value adds).
Best wishes.
- Real Estate Agent · Ventura County · Member since 2024 · 15 posts · 6 votes3d
Dan, thank you. This is exactly the kind of insight I was hoping for. Your point about buyers in 2022-23 underwriting to rent growth that never came explains a lot, and the 2x rule on value-add is a smart filter. Splitting by unit count is also the right way to read the numbers.
I got what I needed from this thread. Appreciate you taking the time, and best wishes on the next quad.
- 5dRobin SimonBusiness MemberLender · Austin, TX · Member since 2022 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
Yeah, its just brutal to get cash flow anywhere in markets like CA right now with any sort of leverage
Harpoon Capital514 Reviews - 3dDrew SygitBusiness MemberProperty Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 12k+ posts · 9k+ votes
Dan pointed out why using active listings is not the best idea.
Maybe use the current listings vs closed data to show investors why they should use an experienced real estate agent?
Logical Property Management4.9460 Reviews- Real Estate Agent · Ventura County · Member since 2024 · 15 posts · 6 votes3d
Thanks Drew, great angle. The closed data shows it clearly: priced-right listings sell within 30 days near full list, and the ones that sit take roughly 9-19% off. Setting today's asking prices next to what similar properties actually sold for is a good way to show investors where the gap is.
Since you see owners from the management side, I have a friendly debate question..
Who's happier a few years in: the cash flow investor with steady monthly checks, or the appreciation investor watching equity grow? Curious which one calls you less!
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