A good flip can be a terrible rental - CALLING ALL MY FLIPPERS

A good flip can be a terrible rental - CALLING ALL MY FLIPPERS

Sean DavoodianBusiness Member
Lender · Glendale, CA · Member since 2025 · 15 posts · 6 votes

This is one I think people figure out too late.

You buy something for $225K.

Put $75K into it.

Now it's worth $400K.

On paper, beautiful deal.

You've created $100K in equity.

Then you decide:

"Maybe I'll just keep it."

Now we have a completely different question.

What does it rent for?

Because if it only rents for $2,300-$2,400 and the refinance payment at today's rate is $2,700+, that beautiful flip doesn't necessarily make a beautiful rental.

I've seen people focus so much on ARV that rent is almost an afterthought.

If your plan has ANY chance of turning into a hold, I'd be looking at both exits before buying it.

Flip math:

Purchase + rehab + carrying costs vs sale price.

Hold math:

Total basis + stabilized value + rent + refinance proceeds + payment.

Same house.

Two completely different deals.

I actually think the best BRRRRs are properties where either exit works.

If the flip market gets bad, keep it.

If the rental numbers stink, sell it.

Do you guys decide flip vs hold before buying or after the rehab is done?

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James JonesPro Member
Investor · Collierville, TN 38017 · Member since 2017 · 734 posts · 542 votes
5d

I decide before I buy. Every deal gets underwritten both ways, but I only buy if the hold numbers work.

My rule: total basis (purchase + rehab) has to hit the 1% rule on rent. I buy under $100K, rehab $30-40K, ARV $180K-$265K. If Section 8 rent at $1,395-$1,950 doesn't cover the DSCR payment at 70-80% LTV, I don't buy it, even if the flip spread looks good.

Flips are a job. Rentals are a portfolio. I built 236 doors by only buying holds. If the flip market dips, I still have a cash-flowing rental. Decide the exit before you wire the money, not after the rehab.

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  • James JonesPro Member
    Investor · Collierville, TN 38017 · Member since 2017 · 734 posts · 542 votes
    5d

    I decide before I buy. Every deal gets underwritten both ways, but I only buy if the hold numbers work.

    My rule: total basis (purchase + rehab) has to hit the 1% rule on rent. I buy under $100K, rehab $30-40K, ARV $180K-$265K. If Section 8 rent at $1,395-$1,950 doesn't cover the DSCR payment at 70-80% LTV, I don't buy it, even if the flip spread looks good.

    Flips are a job. Rentals are a portfolio. I built 236 doors by only buying holds. If the flip market dips, I still have a cash-flowing rental. Decide the exit before you wire the money, not after the rehab.

  • Sean DavoodianBusiness Member
    OP
    Lender · Glendale, CA · Member since 2025 · 15 posts · 6 votes
    5d

    Genius. I like that a lot. Especially the “decide the exit before you wire the money” part.

    The only thing I'd add is I'd probably underwrite the refinance just as hard as the purchase. If the hold only works assuming 80% LTV and a perfect rent number, I'd want to know what it looks like at 70-75% LTV too.

    That little bit of conservatism can be the difference between actually recycling your cash and getting stuck with way more money in the deal than you planned.

    • Investor · Madison WI · Member since 2021 · 176 posts · 103 votes
      4d

      And be in a position to be okay with way more money staying in the deal than you initially expected. That's how you don't get burned in a market like today's. The people who were operating conservatively are those that will still be standing 5 years from now.

  • Rental Property Investor · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2021 · 778 posts · 504 votes
    2d

    @Sean Davoodian - Yes, interesting question. I have a flip now, but went over budget and deciding whether it makes sense to transition to a rental. The plan was to flip, but determining if it's worth it to hold onto. I think James was right in having a plan at the beginning, but also know that each project can/should have multiple exists.

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