I've fully renovated several houses for investors, so I know exactly what those renovations cost because I completed the work myself (interior/exterior). I can also see what the investor originally paid for each property and what they eventually sold it for.

My thought is to use those real projects to identify my buy box. Since I have an experienced in-house crew and plan to put a significant amount of sweat equity into my first few flips, my renovation costs should be much lower than if I hired everything out. I know that as I scale I'll have to become more hands-off, but in the beginning I'm willing to trade my time for equity to build capital faster. Maybe this works if I use cash for the entire deal but with financing I don't know if it works.

I've also been spending a lot of time studying deal analytics. From everything I've learned, I don't want to be over 70% of the projected ARV after factoring in the purchase price, renovation costs, closing costs, holding costs, and a reasonable contingency. Do I think like an investor first then a contractor second? I'm not trying to make it too complicated but I know it's not simple.

Does this seem like a smart way to determine my buy box? Has anyone else used the numbers from projects they personally completed to build their buying criteria? I'd also be interested to hear how experienced flippers analyze deals before making an offer. Besides sticking to your maximum percentage of ARV, what metrics or red flags have helped you avoid bad deals when you're evaluating properties?

Thanks BP