Who else agrees? Fear in the market is creating better deals for buyers

Question

Right now a lot of investors are hesitant. Higher rates, uncertain prices, and headline noise make people wait on the sidelines. That can create real opportunities for buyers who do their homework.

When fewer buyers are competing, sellers have fewer options, and that can change the negotiation.

Before you make an offer, try to understand why the seller is selling:

• Timing: Are they relocating, dealing with an estate, or facing a deadline?
• Financial pressure: Are they behind on payments, carrying a vacant property, or paying for repairs they don’t want to do?
• Life changes: Divorce, a job change, illness, or a family situation?
• Fatigue: Have they been a landlord for years and want out?

Timing: Are they relocating, dealing with an estate, or facing a deadline?

Financial pressure: Are they behind on payments, carrying a vacant property, or paying for repairs they don’t want to do?

Life changes: Divorce, a job change, illness, or a family situation?

Fatigue: Have they been a landlord for years and want out?

Ask questions, listen, and let the answers guide your number. A seller who needs to close in 30 days is in a different position than one who is just testing the market.

Then build the price from the numbers, not the emotion:

• Start with comps for the same property type and area, recent and closed.
• Estimate repairs with real bids or a contractor walkthrough, and include a contingency.
• Work backward from your target return, whether that’s a flip profit, a DSCR cash flow number, or a construction margin.
• Make an offer that holds up on paper, and be ready to walk away if the seller won’t meet it.

Start with comps for the same property type and area, recent and closed.

Estimate repairs with real bids or a contractor walkthrough, and include a contingency.

Work backward from your target return, whether that’s a flip profit, a DSCR cash flow number, or a construction margin.

Make an offer that holds up on paper, and be ready to walk away if the seller won’t meet it.

Negotiating well doesn’t mean squeezing people who are struggling. The best deals I’ve seen are the ones where both sides leave feeling the price was fair and the timeline worked.

Ametria Chaney · Answer

Agree, Luis — and from the agent side, the part people underestimate is that a fearful market doesn't just soften prices, it softens terms. When listings sit, sellers start entertaining things they'd have laughed at a year ago: closing cost credits, longer inspection windows, even repair concessions.

My advice to buyers right now: don't just shop price, shop motivation. Expired and withdrawn listings are worth a second look, and the questions you outlined — why is the seller selling, what's their timeline — are exactly how you find the leverage without being adversarial.

One caution from my side of the desk: run your numbers the same way in a hot market and a cold one. A motivated seller helps, but it doesn't fix a deal that never made sense. What are you seeing in your market — are sellers coming down on price first, or on terms?

Matthew Morrow · Answer

@Luis Ochoa the seller's motivation is where the leverage is. Most of my early deals came straight from sellers, and finding out why they wanted to sell usually mattered more than the price. Some care more about timing, a quick close, or not having to fix anything. Jimmy's right that it shows up most on houses that need work, since retail buyers walk away from those first. Keep us posted on what you're seeing.

Jimmy Samaha · Answer

Agree, and I'd add that it shows up mostly in the houses that need work. The clean updated ones still get attention. It's the dated houses, the estates, and anything with a roof or boiler issue that sit, because the buyers who'd normally take those on are the ones waiting on rates.

A lot of estate sellers I talk to have been carrying the house for months. Taxes, insurance, utilities, easily 1,500 a month around here. Once you lay that out with them, a clean offer with a 30 day close can be worth more than an extra 15k on paper from a buyer who needs financing and a repair credit. Nobody gets squeezed, the math just works better for both sides.

The one thing I'd be careful with is assuming a nervous market means a discount on everything. Run the closed comps first. If they say the house is priced right, the headlines don't change that much.

Ryan Brown · Answer

Agree, Luis, and I'd add one thing to your motivation list. Motivation only gets you so far. The seller also has to be able to say yes.

A seller can be as motivated as they come, relocating, tired, paying for a vacant house. But if they bought in 2022 with 5% down, they can't take your offer. They'd have to bring money to closing. That's where a lot of "motivated seller" deals die, and nobody talks about it.

So the sellers I'd look for in this market have motivation and equity together. In my market, Louisville, we can see that pretty clearly. From mid-September to early October we had 2,082 new residential listings hit the MLS and only 774 go under contract. In mid-October, Jefferson County had 461 homes sitting 90+ days, and 117 of them had the same owner for 10+ years.

Those 117 are the ones I like. The 90+ days means the market already told them no. The 10+ years means they probably have a small mortgage or none at all, so they can take a fair-but-lower offer without coming out of pocket. Usually it's an estate, a downsizer, or a landlord who's tired of it, which covers most of your four buckets. Jimmy's point about carrying costs is the conversation that gets those deals done.

To answer Ametria's question for Louisville: price is moving first for most sellers, same as she's seeing in Shelby County. But with long-time owners I'm seeing more willingness on terms too, like seller financing, because they don't need all the cash at closing.

So I agree the deals are out there right now. Just make sure the seller you're negotiating with can actually say yes.

Luis Ochoa · Answer

Exactly, Ametria. Your point that a fearful market softens terms as well as price is a good one, and “run the numbers the same way in any market” is the part I’d underline too. Motivation can change what’s on the table, but it can’t rescue a deal that doesn’t pencil.

Curious what you’re seeing in Shelby County: are sellers moving on price first, or on terms?

Ametria Chaney · Answer

Great question, Luis. In Shelby County I'm seeing both, but price still moves first for most retail sellers — they're anchored to what the neighbor got two years ago, so the first concession is usually a price cut. Terms soften more quietly: seller concessions toward closing costs, rent-back requests, and longer inspection windows are showing up more on investor deals especially. The sellers who move on terms first tend to be the ones who can't move on price — investors holding rentals, or relocation sellers who need to close by a date, not hit a number. That's where the real negotiation happens, just like your four motivation buckets. On the lending side, are you seeing more buyers use that leverage to actually negotiate, or are most still too hesitant to even make offers?

Luis Ochoa · Answer

Appreciate the comment, Matt. Agreed that motivation is where the leverage sits.
On the lending side, I see the same thing: the deals that get done are the ones where the buyer understands why the seller is moving and the numbers still hold up at the end. Deals that die are normally ones where its a first time investor, sometimes working with a wholesaler, that is hard headed on an unrealistic ARV.
Curious what types of properties you like to invest in.

Who else agrees? Fear in the market is creating better deals for buyers

Who else agrees? Fear in the market is creating better deals for buyers

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