Columbus multifamily Q3 2026: 8,000+ units absorbed, but supply still ahead of demand

Columbus, Ohio
Commercial Real Estate Investing
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Columbus multifamily Q3 2026: 8,000+ units absorbed, but supply still ahead of demand

https://www.swissrealtyltd.com/columbus-multifamily-absorption-hits-a-five-year-high-as-overall-vacancy-eases-q3-2026-market-analysis/
Davide FormicaPro Member
Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 47 posts · 32 votes

Sharing some numbers from my Q3 2026 Columbus multifamily review.

Renters absorbed just over 8,000 units over the past 12 months, the highest in five years. That still covers only about 78% of the record 10,333 units delivered in the same period. Demand has been strong for three years running. It just hasn't kept pace with construction.

The gap of roughly 2,300 units is landing in two places. New Class A lease-ups are competing on concessions. Older Class B products then feel it, because renters can move up to a newer unit at a discount.

The pipeline is turning. Units under construction dropped to about 7,300, down from roughly 9,000 the prior quarter, and 2027 deliveries are forecast to fall 44%. Everything already under construction still has to lease up, though, so I'm not expecting meaningful rent growth through much of 2027. Relief is in sight, but it isn't here yet.

For those operating Class B in Columbus, are you seeing stronger demand lately? or still weak as the past couple of years?

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G. Brian DavisPro Member
Investor · Hatboro, PA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 891 votes
3w

Hi @Davide Formica, nice to meet you here on BP. Thanks for laying out the absorption math so clearly. The Class B squeeze you describe is what I'd watch most closely, because concessions at new lease ups pull renters up and leave older product competing on price. When we review deals in our co-investing club, I'd want to see a Class B business plan underwritten with flat rents through 2027 and a realistic concession budget. A plan that needs rents to jump in year one would worry me. The 44% drop in deliveries is encouraging, but the operators who make it through this stretch will be the ones whose debt can carry them until relief shows up.

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  • G. Brian DavisPro Member
    Investor · Hatboro, PA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 891 votes
    3w

    Hi @Davide Formica, nice to meet you here on BP. Thanks for laying out the absorption math so clearly. The Class B squeeze you describe is what I'd watch most closely, because concessions at new lease ups pull renters up and leave older product competing on price. When we review deals in our co-investing club, I'd want to see a Class B business plan underwritten with flat rents through 2027 and a realistic concession budget. A plan that needs rents to jump in year one would worry me. The 44% drop in deliveries is encouraging, but the operators who make it through this stretch will be the ones whose debt can carry them until relief shows up.

    1Reply
    • Davide FormicaPro Member
      OP
      Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 47 posts · 32 votes
      3w

      Agree on your recipe: "flat rents through 2027 and a realistic concession budget".
      While the data shows signs of relief, it will take more time for the apartment backlog to digest.

      0Reply
    • Davide FormicaPro Member
      OP
      Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 47 posts · 32 votes
      1d

      Adding one thing from the operating side. For the Class B assets, I would account for and budget for at least 1 month free per unit on new leases, and stay proactive on renewal retention. Current tenants paying higher rent than what's currently advertised will move out unless you address their concerns and adjust their rents accordingly.

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  • Ashish AcharyaBusiness Member
    CPA, CFP®, PFS · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2017 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3w

    Davide, the 8,000+ units absorbed sounds encouraging, but that 2,300-unit gap between absorption and deliveries is the number I’d be watching most closely.

    For investors, I think the bigger question is what that supply does to actual rents, concessions, occupancy, and NOI, especially for Class B properties competing against newer units offering incentives. It also seems like this could create an interesting buying environment if some owners start feeling enough pressure to sell. The opportunity may not necessarily be in the newest product, but in finding an older property where the pricing reflects the current competition and there's a clear path to improving operations.

    I'd also be looking at the numbers after property taxes, insurance, CapEx, and the tax impact of depreciation rather than relying on headline rent growth. Curious to see whether that 2027 delivery drop actually starts translating into stronger rent growth or whether the existing pipeline keeps the market balanced longer.

    Feel free to DM me, I’d be happy to send over a few resources that might be helpful.

    [email protected]941-914-7779
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    • Davide FormicaPro Member
      OP
      Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 47 posts · 32 votes
      3w

      Indeed, operators face pressure today; holding is a luxury not everyone can afford.
      This is the perfect storm: flat rents with higher-than-usual vacancy, high taxes and insurance costs, and high interest rates.

      I wish everyone good luck coming out of this brutal cycle, hopefully sooner rather than later.

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  • Jordan FioreBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2020 · 199 posts · 150 votes
    1w

    That absorption number with deliveries still ahead of it is exactly why Class A concessions are sticking around — and why Class B is feeling the squeeze. For smaller investors, that's actually the setup: value-add Class B/C while the institutions wait for the supply wave to pass.

    The 44% drop in 2027 deliveries is the number to watch. If that holds, rent stabilization follows, and the deals bought during the concession window look a lot better in hindsight.

    [email protected]513-646-1038
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    • Davide FormicaPro Member
      OP
      Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 47 posts · 32 votes
      1d

      I think we'll have most of 2027 before rents stabilize and growth comes back. If I'm buying today, I want the deal to work on in-place income for the first one to two years, depending on how beaten down the property is for reasons aside from market supply. Value-add upside remains a bonus.

      0Reply
  • Michael K GallagherBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Columbus OH · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1w

    this is a really interesting report, thank you for supplying, perhaps I'm missing something but the "top markets" section where they indicate the sales metrics still look like pretty "decent" cap rates and prices per unit that are being demanded, just something that is contrary at least in my eyes to some of the "multi family Meltdown" or whatnot everyone has been yelling about for a while.

    [email protected]614-362-2231
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    • Davide FormicaPro Member
      OP
      Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 47 posts · 32 votes
      1d

      Thanks @Michael K Gallagher
      Columbus also has a healthy economy and a diversified job base with strong demand, which keeps buyers in the market even with flat rents. Long-term buyers are active now looking for opportunities, betting on the next cycle once supply erodes.

      PS: I have 11 off-market multifamily properties at the moment, ranging from 48 units to 8.

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  • Max Comperatore
    Technology · New York, NY · Member since 2026 · 49 posts · 11 votes
    5d

    @Davide Formica, the 78% absorption rate is the number that actually matters here, and @G. Brian Davis is right to underwrite to zero. But that 2,300 unit overhang is not spread evenly across the market. It is concentrated in the Class A lease-ups that opened in the last 18 months.

    Here is the mechanism most operators miss. Headline asking rent is fiction right now. A $1,900 Class A unit with 6 to 8 weeks free nets $1,615 to $1,660 effective. That is not competing with Class B at $1,500 to $1,550. It is sitting directly on top of it. The tenant trades up for $75 to $150 more and gets new product. Class B loses that renewal before it ever gets to negotiate.

    Then year two arrives. The free months fall off and the tenant faces a 15% to 20% actual payment increase. That is the renewal cliff. Turn cost per turn runs $3,500 to $4,500 in hard dollars plus downtime, and against a $1,650 net that wipes out roughly 18 months of rent spread. Operators who hold gross asking rents to protect the comp end up losing on physical vacancy instead. MAA, Camden and Essex all report this way, net effective and concession burn, never top line.

    When I build the screening and valuation models for REITwave, I stress the renewal cliff and the cap rate exit spread rather than rent growth. Public REIT concession disclosure against the private supply pipeline shows you where the real floor sits, often months before appraisal data catches up.

    So a question for you both: in Columbus, are operators burning concessions upfront as free rent or amortizing credits across the lease? And what are Class B retention rates doing when Class A tries to burn off concessions at first renewal?

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    • Davide FormicaPro Member
      OP
      Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 47 posts · 32 votes
      1d

      In Columbus, I've seen the free month rent concession granted in a variety of ways: offering it up front, distributing it evenly over the 12-month lease, and finally, last month, which is not as attractive to the tenants

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  • Davide FormicaPro Member
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 47 posts · 32 votes
    1d

    Bringing in a new tenant is hard enough these days. Retention is gold. Anyone paying above today's advertised rent is a move-out risk unless you get ahead of the renewal and are prepared to lower their rent. In this market, keeping a good tenant at a slightly lower rent beats a turn, a vacancy, and a concession on the next lease.

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