REPORT FROM THE SMOKIES: The worm is turning

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REPORT FROM THE SMOKIES: The worm is turning

Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes

Our October thru December bookings are up about 15 percent year over year, and early 2027 is trending well ahead of 2026. Demand is up. Occupancies are not yet up, but Average Daily Rate certainly is.

I believe we finally are emerging from the COVID bubble bust.

[email protected]806-672-7102
SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
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  • Kent Morgan
    Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2018 · 18 posts · 4 votes
    1d

    Good to hear, Collin. ADR up while occupancy stays flat is an interesting mix. Is that mostly guests booking further out for the holidays and early 2027, or are you seeing fewer new cabins come online around Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge than in the last couple of years?

    Also curious whether the lift is across the board or concentrated in certain cabin sizes. Owners in other markets keep asking when the post-COVID supply glut finally works through, so a read from someone who manages in the Smokies is useful.

    Disclosure: I own One Fine BnB, a vacation rental management company.

    (Drafted with AI help.)

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  • Collin HaysBusiness Member
    OP
    Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    1d

    We aren't seeming much in the way of new inventory, which is a good thing, because there is already an oversupply. Advanced bookings are up, but that is misleading, because half of the reservations anymore end up cancelling. What it does show me is that increased demand is there.

    Large cabins are still struggling. There is an oversupply and demand is very soft.

    [email protected]806-672-7102
    SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
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    • John UnderwoodPro Member
      Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
      3h

      Why do you thin 1/2 of bookings are cancelling?

      I'm not seeing that persoanlly.

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  • Kent Morgan
    Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2018 · 18 posts · 4 votes
    23h

    Thanks Collin, that is useful. The cancellation rate is the part I would have missed. Are those mostly groups booking more than one cabin and dropping the extras once plans firm up, or more guests rebooking when they find a lower rate closer to the date?

    And has it pushed you toward stricter cancellation policies, or would that cost you too many bookings in the Smokies right now?

    (Drafted with AI help.)

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  • Collin HaysBusiness Member
    OP
    Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    20h

    It's really hard to know Kent.

    The fundamental problems with large cabins are this:

    1. There is a huge oversupply now.

    2. A large cabin typically requires multiple families. Right now, I think it's hard to get the budgets of multiple families synced up for vacations. Money is tight.

    I do think that the generous cancellation policies of the OTAs are encouraging a "book now ask questions later" habit among travelers. We have many guests book, and then turn around and cancel a day or two later. But we are often backfilling these cancellations with reservations at higher rates.

    [email protected]806-672-7102
    SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
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  • Adam Summerer
    Lender · Franklin, TN · Member since 2026 · 157 posts · 41 votes
    4h

    Collin, the cancellation point matters a lot for anyone financing a cabin right now. Most STR DSCR lenders size the loan off actual trailing 12 month revenue or a projection, and some haircut gross rents around 20% before they divide by the payment, so higher ADR only helps if it shows up in collected revenue, not bookings. Are you seeing buyers come back to the smaller cabins first? (Happy to talk through cabin financing if anyone's looking.)

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    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      2h

      Adam, I am a property manager, so I can't speak to the real estate investment side of things. But no question, you're only as good as your last couple of years. That's going to continue to put downward pressure on prices for a good while.

      [email protected]806-672-7102
      SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
      WebsiteView Page
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