You're right, ground-up construction is capital intensive and does alleviate some unknowns (but only when you have a strong design team). 

That doesn’t include cushion for the inevitable unknowns. 

You'll want to close that window as tight as possible for less unknowns to show up.  

Vetting property managers from afar is really about reducing unknowns and forcing clarity early.

Unknown. 

Too many unknowns here for anyone on the internet to advise you properly.

I suspect there are more that I either do not know or cannot think of right now).i personally know over a dozen people who have crossed $10m (probably hundreds who have hit multimillionaire status as in my city that could be achieved with one property) in San Diego who made their wealth in RE including one family that is virtually unknown with over $1b in real estate in south San Diego county.  

Any development I’d pursue would require: conservative leverage, sufficient reserves, and flexibility on timeline, so that the project can be operated through market cycles rather than rushed to exit.To your point about existing assets having fewer unknowns—that’s exactly why I’m still very open (and arguably biased) toward acquisition where I can buy documented cash flow, operating history, and known risk at a sensible basis.

My biggest fear with them is the unknown...what future assessements will you see and will it sill cash flow at that point.

There is way too much volatility and too many uncontrollable variables/ unknowns/ risk/ stress and BS to sort through.