Week of December 15, 2025 | Market UpdateThis week’s delayed government data finally filled in some important gaps — and the takeaway is pretty clear: inflation pressures are easing faster than expected, while the job market continues to lose momentum.

Carriers that provide coverage for a large number of similar properties in the same market have far more reliable data on how losses typically play out.

While this is certainly happening--and I'm sure it is in alot of markets--I'm here to show you that if you do it right, your property can outperform your expectations, even in what some consider a down market and economy.In our portfolio (turnkeyhospitalityllc.com), we had 8 properties that had rental data for more than one year. 

My primary strategy is long-term rentals, though I am open to testing short-term rental potential with one unit if the right property allows.I’m interested in off-market opportunities or deals that are below market value, ideally with minimal rehab (cosmetic updates are fine).

The density and quality of routes here have made it one of the top rock-climbing destinations on Earth, supported by a truly global climbing community.Immediately adjacent is Natural Bridge State Resort Park, home to one of the largest natural sandstone arches in the region and one of Kentucky’s most visited natural attractions.Because of its rugged terrain and elevation changes, the Gorge also contains a remarkable variety of ecological zones — something you usually only see across much larger regions.This place is protected, finite, and impossible to recreate.The Data Is Catching Up to What Locals Already KnewAccording to AirDNA, Red River Gorge was recently ranked as the 4th fastest-growing short-term rental market in the United States.AirDNA tracks real booking behavior — occupancy, nightly rates, and revenue growth — across tens of thousands of markets.

Here’s how I stress-test any note before I buy it.1.

DSCR deals get dangerous fast when investors underwrite with best-case rents and today’s unrealistically low expense assumptions.A couple things we’ve been doing in Memphis that line up with your approach:• We stress-test at 1.20–1.25 DSCR using actual operating data from our portfolio, not just pro forma.

The screenshot below is from one of my test underwrites.

There are several softwares on the market now, so I would do some testing to see what works best for you and your rental business.

The Craigslist effort will mostly be just for this month to test the numbers, as I am moving into this full time from my current job in tech and do not have the time necessary for D4D.If you have done these, do you have experience you can share with how you made it work?