Seeking Advice On How To Achieve My REI Goal

Seeking Advice On How To Achieve My REI Goal

Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 3 votes

Hi everyone!

 I'd love to contribute to the community here but I'm a real estate investor noob so maybe I can help in other areas of interest. I work as a web3 product manager. Product manager meaning, I help businesses create/sell/market apps, websites and tech products. Web3 meaning crypto, blockchain and NFT related products. A lot of what that technology enables is around community so I would not be surprised to see this community eventually get it's own cryptocurrency and NFT…

Again, if there are ways I can help members of the community please reach out.

I'm in Toronto, Canada looking to invest in Real Estate. I came into this investment with the mindset of sticking to Toronto and only freehold as I didn't want maintenance fees. Local property prices and the inability to be cash flow positive or break even has opened me up to long distance investing. First I began to look elsewhere in my province and then other provinces in Canada, but haven't looked into foreign properties yet.

I’m currently reading The Book on Rental Property Investing: How to Create Wealth with Intelligent Buy and Hold Real Estate Investing.

There are so many rabbit holes I can go down and spend time researching…Should I reconsider condos and townhouses? Is it better to stay in Toronto for the appreciation? How do you even answer that?

My goal is to allocate the capital I have into real estate. I want to rent it out and potentially BRRRR into more properties. I'm not looking to flip. And I do have enough income to supplement a negative cash flow property, up to a certain degree.

My next task for myself is to research where are the most cash flow positive places in Canada.

TL;DR

My goal is to invest for the long term (not flip), rent it out (long term? short term?), be somewhat passive (property manager) and eventually grow my # of units. I would appreciate advice on how to narrow my search given my goals.

Thank you!

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Investor · Toronto · Member since 2020 · 13 posts · 8 votes
4y

I got you bro. 

"Jason, just buy in this community (Ohio or Michigan) with these types of properties (SFR) and at this price point (sub 250k).

Investing in Toronto is like investing in New York or LA.. it doesn't make sense. 

Perhaps, Welland or St. Kitts might be worth looking into for some multi fam deals. You can still come across 5plex or 6plex at 150-170k per door. 

Happy to help if you have any questions etc.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Jason Yong:

    There's too much to answer in one question. I will recommend staying away from condos, townhomes, or houses that are in an HOA. The quality of the community depends entirely on the quality of the HOA Board, which can vary with personalities. You also have to remember the HOA fees can be expensive and will always go up, never down. It's best to own the property without so many fingers in the pot.

    Keep reading books. Build a foundational understanding of how to invest, the types of investments, how to fund those investments, and how to manage them after purchase. You can get 80% of your education from books much faster than listening to podcasts or bouncing around in forums. Use blogs or forums to refine your knowledge and fill in the gaps. Podcasts are great motivators with the occasional nugget of useful information, but I wouldn't use them for building a foundational understanding.

    The DIY Landlord Book4.7247 Reviews
  • Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 3 votes
    4y

    @Nathan GesnerThanks for the reply and advice! You've confirmed my initial thoughts about condos, townhomes, or houses that are in an HOA. And while I was hoping for a response along the lines of "Jason, just buy in this community with these types of properties and at this price point", your recommendation to read more books rather than bouncing around in podcasts and forums makes total sense. 

    I mentioned I'm currently reading The Book on Rental Property Investing: How to Create Wealth with Intelligent Buy and Hold Real Estate Investing.

    Next on my list because I'm in Canada and heard about it here is Real Estate Investing in Canada by Don Campbell.

    Do you have any book recommendations that would be helpful for my situation? 

    Thanks again!

  • Real Estate Agent · Greater Toronto Area · Member since 2018 · 36 posts · 18 votes
    4y

    Hey @Jason Yong,

    Welcome to BP! You're right about Toronto being a hard market to cash flow in, it's definitely more of an appreciation play. If you're looking for cash flow right off the bat, then you should definitely consider long distance real estate investing. 

    With that said, I would recommend getting started with house hacking - you buy a primary residence for yourself to live in while renting out the other rooms or areas of the house to get some rental income coming in. That income will help you offset your mortgage and expenses while giving you some experience being a landlord. Your living expenses (biggest monthly expense) will be greatly reduced and you will be able to get started with investing in Toronto. Not to mention you can purchase the property with a lower downpayment and use the extra money to buy a second property, maybe somewhere that cash flows a little better right out of the gate. You don't need to buy a second property right away but if you buy your primary with a lower down payment then it gives you more options in the future.

    Hope that helps! If you want to chat more about finding a place in Toronto, please reach out.

  • Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 3 votes
    4y

    Thanks @Nick Vazquez

    House hacking would have been interesting to me, but I should have mentioned that I have a primary residence and house hacking is not a route I'm going to explore at this point. 

    I'm definitely interested in finding a place in Toronto! Or even the GTA...


     I'm operating under the assumption of a max of 900k, which would not leave much room for renovations if any...What are your thoughts on the "best" or most stable option for cash flow? Would a duplex have a better chance at higher cashflow?

    Nothing is set in stone, but my criteria right now seems to be:

    - < 900k

    - freehold

    - 2+ beds, 1.5+ bath


    I started my search in the upper beaches, but as mentioned due to cash flow I started looking further out. 

    Thank you!

  • Real Estate Consultant · Ann Arbor, MI · Member since 2022 · 466 posts · 257 votes
    4y

    Hi Jason-

    Congratulations on starting your real estate investing journey.

    You are in good hands here on Bigger Pockets and their resources.

    I too am a crypto/blockchain fan and do think it is coming to the IRL real estate word as well. I have Bitcoin mining machines hosted in Texas as my primary personal investment.

    One additional book I would recommend is "Equity Happens" by Robert Helms and Russell Gray. Great resource! 

    As far as your focus, I like the BRRRR method starting out and agree with the duplex angle to have more than one door covering the mortgage and expenses.

    Happy to help!

  • Real Estate Agent · TX · Member since 2022 · 129 posts · 73 votes
    4y

    I will agree with you on this one that yes, there are SO many rabbit holes! This is good though. If I learned anything, it was within these rabbit holes. The rabbit hole phases is where we tend to find those real neat and helpful tips and tricks that help us succeed! So don't be afraid of them! If you plan on using the BRRRR strategy, will you end up taking some of your time to come renovate the homes for short periods of times? I ask since you are in Canada, and you're investing from afar. Not saying its not possible, just food for thought. I am not sure how one invests in another country. That seems to be the hardest part but what do I know, I don't invest on a foreign basis! I wish all the best luck to you!

  • Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Jason Yong:

    House hacking would be the way to go in my book.

    The DIY Landlord Book4.7247 Reviews
  • Real Estate Agent · Greater Toronto Area · Member since 2018 · 36 posts · 18 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Jason Yong:

    Thanks @Nick Vazquez

    House hacking would have been interesting to me, but I should have mentioned that I have a primary residence and house hacking is not a route I'm going to explore at this point. 

    I'm definitely interested in finding a place in Toronto! Or even the GTA...


     I'm operating under the assumption of a max of 900k, which would not leave much room for renovations if any...What are your thoughts on the "best" or most stable option for cash flow? Would a duplex have a better chance at higher cashflow?

    Nothing is set in stone, but my criteria right now seems to be:

    - < 900k

    - freehold

    - 2+ beds, 1.5+ bath


    I started my search in the upper beaches, but as mentioned due to cash flow I started looking further out. 

    Thank you!


    Yeah a duplex would work better than a single family house for cash flow. Anything with more ways to increase rent would work better (more units, rent by the room, etc). If you want to stay in the GTA, you can find a townhouse or a semi under 900k that has a basement apartment and rent the 2 units out. Cash flow will be sparse though. I would suggest looking into other cities in southern Ontario where you can find a duplex (or even a triplex) for less money if you're looking to be cash flow positive from day 1.

  • Rental Property Investor · Canada · Member since 2021 · 46 posts · 24 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Nathan Gesner:
    Quote from @Jason Yong:

    House hacking would be the way to go in my book.


     Toronto Metro and the GTA is one of the most expensive markets in Canada and I think it is in the top 10 in the world. Buy and hold definitely wont bring any cash flow in. It would most certainly be negative each month. House hacking and flipping would be the only strategies that would make sense to me. 

  • Investor · Toronto · Member since 2020 · 13 posts · 8 votes
    4y

    I got you bro. 

    "Jason, just buy in this community (Ohio or Michigan) with these types of properties (SFR) and at this price point (sub 250k).

    Investing in Toronto is like investing in New York or LA.. it doesn't make sense. 

    Perhaps, Welland or St. Kitts might be worth looking into for some multi fam deals. You can still come across 5plex or 6plex at 150-170k per door. 

    Happy to help if you have any questions etc.

  • Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 3 votes
    4y

    Thanks @Patrick Michael S.

    It's becoming more apparent that GTA will not make sense. The closest thing is possibly Hamilton and Kitchener Waterloo or maybe PEC if I want to take a stab at Airbnb? And out of province would be Calgary or Edmonton...

    @Paul Britton also mentioned looking into the US. And admittedly going to the US was a hurdle I was avoiding. Any tips on how to get better informed on investing in the US as a Canadian? Not just which states to look at, but the legal parts?

    Thank you all! This community is proving to be so helpful and educational. I hope to pay it back when I am officially a successful investor but again, please reach out if I there are other ways I can serve the community. 

  • Member since 2021 · 20 posts · 18 votes
    4y

    HI @Jason Yong, nice to see a fellow Canuck here :) 

    I think your attitude of 'what can I bring to the community' is a great start. I'd really like your input on a crypto project I'm working on, but I'll leave that to the end. I'm in a similar situation as you, living in an overpriced metro (Vancouver) and getting started on my REI journey. I'm currently house hacking and would urge you to reconsider this strategy.

    There are 4 benefits to this investment strategy. First, you can use a conventional mortgage, which have the lowest interest rates. Second, primary residences require a lower percentage down payment. Third, any profits from selling the property aren’t taxed. And fourth, you'll learn many of the important skills that you'll need for future investments (analyzing properties, evaluating a property's 'best use', working with realtors & mortgage brokers, screening and managing tenants, hiring & working with contractors, understanding tax implications, etc). You have to live somewhere, anyway, so why not make your home a part of your investment strategy?

    If the reason you're not currently house hacking is because you don't have any spare rooms, then consider trading up to a bigger place, or see if you can hack your floorplan to add an extra room. The cost of buying a bigger place could be offset by the rent that you'll get. A room in nice home goes for about $1000 in Vancouver, so it must be similar in Toronto. $1000/m works out to about $200k more 'house' that you could buy (20% down @ 5% for 25 years). Also, some lenders will even include rents as part of your mortgage calculations. Later, if you sell, you’ll get the full benefit of a higher price for having bought a bigger place, along with any value appreciation. Bonus: look for a house with a hackable floorplan for adding rooms/bathrooms - ie. forced appreciation, in investor speak.

    Renting by the room is usually more profitable than getting a house with a rental suite. For example, a 2 BR basement rents for almost $3k, but it has the same space as 4 BR, which could rent for about $4k. However, you'll have to check local bylaws about how many unrelated persons can live in one house.

    Other than money, there are a few things to consider when house hacking. Most important is the fact you’ll be living with your tenant (surprise! you are now a landlord). This can actually be a benefit if you did a good job screening the applicants – you might even become friends, or a nightmare if you didn’t. Your best friend may not be your best tenant if they have different standards of cleanliness, for example. Screening tenants and then dealing with them after they move in is both part art and part science, and it’s a critical skill to learn if you plan on owning rental properties as part of your investment strategy. Having bad tenants can ruin your investment goals, especially at the beginning of your investing journey when you only have a few properties and not much cashflow to fix any problems they might cause.

    Taxes are another important consideration for house hacking. Rental income must be declared and is taxable. Unfortunately, any expenses associated with improving/maintaining the property for rental purposes aren’t deductible since it is your primary residence. However, if you later sell the property for more than you purchased it, either due to appreciation or improvements, you won’t be taxed on the profit because it’s your primary residence.

    Serial house hacking is a great way to build your real estate portfolio, but it does involve the inconvenience of having to move frequently. The idea is that you start with one house hack to save for either a bigger property or an additional property as your new primary residence, move in to that one and house hack it for a year or more, and then do it again. The amount of time you have to stay depends on your local tax rules, and the amount of money that can be saved from hacking that property.

    If I still haven't convinced you about house-hacking, then you might consider buying in the Kitchner-Waterloo area. A 4 BR house can be had for less than $1M, but they're surprisingly small, so not much chance for floorplan hacking. Or look for a cheaper, spacious 3 BR that you could hack into 4. Renting out is easy because of the nearby universities, younger population and good jobs in the area. Rental income from 4 BR probably won't cover the mortgage, taxes and maintenance, but you could claim rental deficits, mortgage interest, depreciation and other expenses against your personal income because it's an investment property (check with a real estate accountant). 

    Unfortunately, there's really no such thing as 'passive' REI, especially in the beginning, not if you want to get the maximum benefits. Even if you hire a manager, you'll still have to manage the manager, unless you're super lucky and they're really good (in which case you'll probably have to pay them more). There are stories aplenty where managers sign bad tenants, ignore maintenance, don't collect rent for months, etc.

    REITs might seem like passive REI, but I think they have 4 significant disadvantages:

    • - Just as with any investment vehicle, you have to understand the details of the REIT, including its strategy, sector, holdings, management, etc., and then decide if it matches your investment goals.
    • - You can’t take advantage of leverage. A mortgage allows you to control a property that is worth many times the value of your down payment.
    • - Property value appreciation doesn’t get passed on to shareholders.
    • - Most importantly, its value goes up and down with the stock market, and it can in fact go to zero if it’s poorly managed

    The closest thing to passive REI is joining a syndication. And even then you still have to do your homework on the deal analysis, and carefully vet the partners involved. You're also trading convenience for a lower return on investment.

    I hope at least some of this advice was helpful. 

    Here's the part where I ask you for your input about my crypto project. I'm building a community site where people get paid for writing reviews about products and services. For example, imagine shopping at Amazon, Airbnb, Tripadvisor, Best Buy etc. if there were no customer reviews. User reviews contribute to business profits, so people should get paid for helpful reviews, right? In addition to getting paid from the site's advertising revenue, community users can also get a token with their demographic details which advertisers can pay to access. How many developer hours would you guess is needed to create a token like that? Also, how about a 'coin' which gets awarded to users for helpful reviews, and that they can use for voting on community projects?

    Please let me know if you'd like to discuss my advice or project offline.

    Cheers

  • Drew SygitBusiness Member
    Property Manager · Royal Oak, MI · Member since 2012 · 12k+ posts · 9k+ votes
    4y

    @Jason Yong

    We think the Midwest is a GREAT place for OOS investors to consider!

    YES, we may be a little biased, but check out our blog here on BP comparing Detroit to other cities and Deep Dives on Metro Detroit cities & neighborhoods: https://www.biggerpockets.com/...

    Your biggest question shouldn't be WHERE to invest, but HOW you will invest!

    Many OOS investors set themselves up for failure because they don't truly take the time to understand:

    1) The Class of the NEIGHBORHOOD they are buying in - which is relative to the overall area.

    2) The Class of the PROPERTY they are buying - which is relative to the overall area.

    3) The Class of the TENANT POOL the Neighborhood & Property will attract - which is relative to the overall area.

    4) The Class of the CONTRACTORS that will work on their Property, given the Neighborhood location - which is relative to the overall area.

    5) The Class of the PROPERTY MANAGEMENT COMPANIES (PMC) that will manage their Property, given the Neighborhood location and the Tenants it will attract - which is relative to the overall area.

    6) That a Class X NEIGHBORHOOD will have mostly Class X PROPERTIES, which will only attract Class X TENANTS, CONTRACTORS AND PMCs and deliver Class X RESULTS.

    7) That OOS property Class rankings are often different than the Class ranking of the local market they live.

    8) Class A is relatively easy to manage, can even be DIY remote managed from another state. Can usually allot 5-10% vacancy factor and same for maintenance.

    9) Class B usually also okay, but needs more attention from owner and/or PMC. Vacancy and maintenance factors should be higher than for Class A as homes will be older, have more deferred maintenance and tenants will be harder on them.

    10) Class C can be relatively successful with a great PMC (do NOT hire the cheapest!), but very difficult to DIY remote manage. Vacancy and maintenance factors should be higher than for Class A or B. Homes will have even more deferred maintenance and tenants will be even harder on them.

    11) Class D pretty much requires an OWNER to be on location and at the property 3-4 times/week. Most quality PMCs will not manage these properties as they understand most owners won’t pay them enough for the time required and even then it’s too difficult successfully manage them.
    ***Only exception is if an owner has plan & funds to reposition Class D to Class C or higher.

    https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/776/topics/960183-what-they-dont-tell-you-about-cheap-rental-properties?highlight_post=5562799&page=3#p5562799

    Also, SERIOUSLY consider - do you really have the time to be a DIY landlord or should you hire a PMC?

    Good luck with whatever you decide😊

  • Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 3 votes
    4y

    Thank you all for the recent replies. Apologies for the delay as I've just welcomed my son to the world and currently busy with what comes with taking care of a 5 day old 😉.

    @Khai Hong Thanks for the reply. Yes! great to see fellow Canadians. Especially as resources tailored to us are less abundandant than our neighbours down south. Really appreciate the points you made on house hacking and it makes total sense. It's just that I'm with a family of 4 right now plus dog and I don't think that fits our lifestyle even though it would accelerate our wealth building. KW was on my list to check out, but I may try to find other places that can provide positive cash flow. 

    RE: Your crypto idea, I think it's great and kudos to you for exploring this idea. First, I would say to really think about how the tokenomics would work. I know you mentioned advertising (also look in affiliate marketing), but tying payments to an on chain token is no easy task. However, that just means if someone figures it out, they are primed for success. Launching the token itself can be done in a few clicks. Checkout Coinvise or Aragon. It's tying back value such as advertising revenue that would be tricky. perhaps you set up the set so that advertisers must use your coin to buy advertising space, thus creating demand (value) for the coin (this is tokenomics). Awarding coins for helpful reviews isn't the largest project, but would still probably require more than a "sprint" (2 weeks or 80 hours). One tricky thing with such endeavours is most onchain activity costs "gas'. doing this on Ethereum would be expensive and not feasible. Doing it on an Ethereum L2 like Polygon or optimism is cheaper but still infinitely more expensive than reddit upvotes for example. If you expand to other chains beyond Ethereum you may sacrifice security for cost and speed, which may not be a bad thing just something to consider. 






    @Drew Sygit thank you for your reply!
    I will look into the links you provided when time allows. As a Canadian I am ignorant of the nuances of investing in the US and appreciate your points. I plan to dive deeper into my learning journey of investing in the US and will circle back. 🙏

  • Member since 2021 · 20 posts · 18 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Jason Yong:

    Thank you all for the recent replies. Apologies for the delay as I've just welcomed my son to the world and currently busy with what comes with taking care of a 5 day old 😉.

    @Khai Hong Thanks for the reply. Yes! great to see fellow Canadians. Especially as resources tailored to us are less abundandant than our neighbours down south. Really appreciate the points you made on house hacking and it makes total sense. It's just that I'm with a family of 4 right now plus dog and I don't think that fits our lifestyle even though it would accelerate our wealth building. KW was on my list to check out, but I may try to find other places that can provide positive cash flow. 

    RE: Your crypto idea, I think it's great and kudos to you for exploring this idea. First, I would say to really think about how the tokenomics would work. I know you mentioned advertising (also look in affiliate marketing), but tying payments to an on chain token is no easy task. However, that just means if someone figures it out, they are primed for success. Launching the token itself can be done in a few clicks. Checkout Coinvise or Aragon. It's tying back value such as advertising revenue that would be tricky. perhaps you set up the set so that advertisers must use your coin to buy advertising space, thus creating demand (value) for the coin (this is tokenomics). Awarding coins for helpful reviews isn't the largest project, but would still probably require more than a "sprint" (2 weeks or 80 hours). One tricky thing with such endeavours is most onchain activity costs "gas'. doing this on Ethereum would be expensive and not feasible. Doing it on an Ethereum L2 like Polygon or optimism is cheaper but still infinitely more expensive than reddit upvotes for example. If you expand to other chains beyond Ethereum you may sacrifice security for cost and speed, which may not be a bad thing just something to consider. 






    @Drew Sygit thank you for your reply!
    I will look into the links you provided when time allows. As a Canadian I am ignorant of the nuances of investing in the US and appreciate your points. I plan to dive deeper into my learning journey of investing in the US and will circle back. 🙏

     Wow, congrats @Jason Yong! My son is 2 so I still remember the first few weeks, what a crazy mix of happiness and exhaustion :) I guess it goes without saying, but take lots of pictures & vids. I have my pics running continuously on tablet in the living room, and they always make me smile. 

    Thanks for the great tips about working with blockchain, I may very well look you up when I finalize my business plan. I didn't realize there's such a thing as crypto project accelerators, but it totally makes sense.

    If you're open to investing in the US, I highly suggest you get in touch with David Greene's team, host of the BP podcast. That's what I'd do for sure, but I'm currently tied to the Vancouver market for personal reasons. After I secure my next property here, I'll be ringing him up. I salivate at some of the opportunities I hear about to the south.

  • Member since 2022 · 7 posts · 4 votes
    4y

    I haven't seen anyone ask this as of yet. But coming from someone from Northern Ontario, I would recommend taking a peek at our markets, notably Sudbury and North Bay who seem to been having positive growth in population and employment. I'm currently based in Sudbury and have been shopping for my first deal here (tri or fourplex house hack) and although I've seen what I believe to be a few good deals most of them are in a not so favourable part of town at the moment. I'm only looking at MLS at the moment, however, and will start driving for dollars soon. I strongly recommend checking out the DurhamREI group if you are not aware of them. They hold monthly meetups and usually have a big attendance. I went for my first time in August and had an absolute blast. Don't be shy if you have any questions or comments for me would love to connect!

  • Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 3 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Jeremie Rochon:

    I haven't seen anyone ask this as of yet. But coming from someone from Northern Ontario, I would recommend taking a peek at our markets, notably Sudbury and North Bay who seem to been having positive growth in population and employment. I'm currently based in Sudbury and have been shopping for my first deal here (tri or fourplex house hack) and although I've seen what I believe to be a few good deals most of them are in a not so favourable part of town at the moment. I'm only looking at MLS at the moment, however, and will start driving for dollars soon. I strongly recommend checking out the DurhamREI group if you are not aware of them. They hold monthly meetups and usually have a big attendance. I went for my first time in August and had an absolute blast. Don't be shy if you have any questions or comments for me would love to connect!

     Thanks @Jeremie Rochon. I honestly hadn't thought of Northern Ontario but will check it out. I haven't seen anywhere in my searches with tri or fourplexes so that definitely has my attention. 
    Also thanks for mentioning the DurhamREI group. Durham is right next-door to me so those events will be easy to go to. 

  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2021 · 9k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    4y

    Be relentless with everything you do. Need more cash, be ruthless with your hunt for it, need deals, call everyone and their mom to find it! 

  • Member since 2022 · 7 posts · 4 votes
    4y

  • Toronto, Ontario · Member since 2016 · 2 posts · 1 vote
    3y

    I live and work in Toronto. Currently invested in Toronto and Barrie. Plan on going out west (Calgary and Edmonton) to invest where prices are way lower and rentals cashflow.  Welcome to the group. Love to connect with others here. 

  • Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2021 · 9k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    3y

    Set 3 month goals and make weekly milestones

  • Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 3 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Mark Johnson:

    I live and work in Toronto. Currently invested in Toronto and Barrie. Plan on going out west (Calgary and Edmonton) to invest where prices are way lower and rentals cashflow.  Welcome to the group. Love to connect with others here. 


     Calgary and Edmonton are top of my list to check out before researching investing in the US as a Canadian. 

    From my brief research, I think Edmonton had lower prices. But haven't had a chance to review the 12 factors check from the ACRE system

    1. 1. Interest rates
    2. 2. Income rising
      1. [Edmonton, Calgary bring in $10K over national average in household income: Stats Can](https://globalnews.ca/news/8986382/edmonton-calgary-higher-national-average-household-income-statistics-canada/#:~:text=In Edmonton%2C the average household,tax household income of %2473%2C000.)
      2. is oil dying due to EVs?
    3. 3. Increased in migration and demand 
    4. 4. Ripple effect 
    5. 5. Local, regional and provincial political climate
    6. 6. Transportation expansion
    7. 7. Areas in transition (gentrification)
    8. 8. Creating highest and best use
    9. 9. Buy wholesale, sell retail
    10. 10. Quality marketing
    11. 11. Renovations and sweat equity
    12. 12. Speculation

    Also, I have bought but yet to start reading:

    Long-Distance Real Estate Investing: How to Buy, Rehab, and Manage Out-of-State Rental Properties 
    by David M Greene

  • Member since 2021 · 20 posts · 18 votes
    3y

    Hi again @Jason Yong, I grew up in Calgary, yet I would recommend you consider a few other things before committing to investing there. Keeping in mind that the fed gov't has set an immigration target of 1.5 million over the next 3 years, the demand for rentals will be high pretty much everywhere for at least the next decade, and supply likely won't be able to keep up. That's on top of the 1M since 2020, so 2.5M total, which is about a 7% overall increase in just 5 years. Almost all will be renters. So you should be successful almost anywhere, as long as you have good execution (choose a good neighborhood, screen tenants carefully, find good contractors, etc). However, having said that, some regions will produce higher returns on your investment than others. 

    I hadn't heard of the ACRE system before, but it looks like it's mixing strategy (where) with execution (how). Of the 12 factors, only 2, 3, 5 & 12 would help you decide where to invest. All the other factors are applicable in every city, so they don't help you to differentiate. David Greene has a better framework for choosing where to invest: look for areas with steady/increasing population, diversified jobs growth, and limited land.

    In the case of AB, the elephant in the room is that oil & gas make up 25% of GDP, Is it true that oil and gas is Alberta’s largest industry? (albertaworker.ca). That's not taking into account the ripple effects, like how many fewer restaurants would there be without all the O&G jobs, or how much less construction for their homes, etc. 

    I did a bit of deep dive into the four big Canadian metros here Investing in Calgary (biggerpockets.com), and found out that AB is the only province where unemployment is trending up - which seems to follow the declining oil and gas industry. O&G demand will, I think, in fact go up for the next 10 or 20 years as it is needed to build out the renewables infrastructure (ironically, enthusiastically digging its own grave, as it were), but its decline is inevitable. It's not just EV's, the world is taking sustainability more seriously, especially in light of recent macro events. These types of macro trends tend to be exponential; slowly at first, then accelerating very quickly (charts below). Even using today's tech, 100 square miles of electric panels in the middle of the US could power the entire country. And the tech just keeps getting better. 

    The AB gov't is trying to encourage a more diversified employment landscape, but so is every other gov't, all around the developed world, in fact. And despite their best efforts, unemployment has been trending up in AB for the past 15 years, whereas it has been trending down elsewhere. 

    As shown below, prices in AB have been pretty much flat since 2008, despite steadily increasing populations. So are you only looking for rental income for the next 10 or 15 years? Because after that, I think things will noticeably go downhill from there.

    .

    Again, I don't think you can go wrong anywhere in Canada, as long as you execute well. But if you want to maximize your returns, then it pays to be more selective of where you invest. As David Greene often says on the BP podcast, cashflow and appreciation are a continuum, and appreciation is where the real long-term wealth is made. I would suggest you look at markets where there's reasonable cashflow with a good chance of appreciation. Halifax has been another hot market recently, and there I think it's justified. Prices have kept up with population growth, and unemployment is steady. Also, as mentioned by @Jeremie Rochon, northern ON is another hot market. The dominant industry there is mining, which has a brighter future than O&G, Four new mines coming to Canada - Canadian Mining Journal. As the world pivots away from China and Russia, clean and ethical producers like Canada will be the beneficiaries.

    As always, I welcome any feedback.

    .

  • Member since 2022 · 16 posts · 3 votes
    3y

    @Khai Hong Thank you so much for an informative response. I really appreciate your input and effort. I will look into Halifax. Interestingly, I don't see any rentals on Zillow, but quickly found rentals.ca showing some. 

    I hope that I don't fall into analysis paralysis. Now that I'm into long distance investing and considering the US market, it's just hard to figure out where to start. One question I have is, I see you screenshotted an MLS report. What sites/tools/sources do you use for things like areas with steady/increasing population, diversified jobs growth, and limited land. I'm pretty confident in my ability to Google, but I'm sure you and this community can point me in the right direction.

    Thanks again!

  • Realtor · Calgary, Alberta · Member since 2018 · 291 posts · 132 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Khai Hong:

    Hi again @Jason Yong, I grew up in Calgary, yet I would recommend you consider a few other things before committing to investing there. Keeping in mind that the fed gov't has set an immigration target of 1.5 million over the next 3 years, the demand for rentals will be high pretty much everywhere for at least the next decade, and supply likely won't be able to keep up. That's on top of the 1M since 2020, so 2.5M total, which is about a 7% overall increase in just 5 years. Almost all will be renters. So you should be successful almost anywhere, as long as you have good execution (choose a good neighborhood, screen tenants carefully, find good contractors, etc). However, having said that, some regions will produce higher returns on your investment than others. 

    I hadn't heard of the ACRE system before, but it looks like it's mixing strategy (where) with execution (how). Of the 12 factors, only 2, 3, 5 & 12 would help you decide where to invest. All the other factors are applicable in every city, so they don't help you to differentiate. David Greene has a better framework for choosing where to invest: look for areas with steady/increasing population, diversified jobs growth, and limited land.

    In the case of AB, the elephant in the room is that oil & gas make up 25% of GDP, Is it true that oil and gas is Alberta’s largest industry? (albertaworker.ca). That's not taking into account the ripple effects, like how many fewer restaurants would there be without all the O&G jobs, or how much less construction for their homes, etc. 

    I did a bit of deep dive into the four big Canadian metros here Investing in Calgary (biggerpockets.com), and found out that AB is the only province where unemployment is trending up - which seems to follow the declining oil and gas industry. O&G demand will, I think, in fact go up for the next 10 or 20 years as it is needed to build out the renewables infrastructure (ironically, enthusiastically digging its own grave, as it were), but its decline is inevitable. It's not just EV's, the world is taking sustainability more seriously, especially in light of recent macro events. These types of macro trends tend to be exponential; slowly at first, then accelerating very quickly (charts below). Even using today's tech, 100 square miles of electric panels in the middle of the US could power the entire country. And the tech just keeps getting better. 

    The AB gov't is trying to encourage a more diversified employment landscape, but so is every other gov't, all around the developed world, in fact. And despite their best efforts, unemployment has been trending up in AB for the past 15 years, whereas it has been trending down elsewhere. 

    As shown below, prices in AB have been pretty much flat since 2008, despite steadily increasing populations. So are you only looking for rental income for the next 10 or 15 years? Because after that, I think things will noticeably go downhill from there.

    .

    Again, I don't think you can go wrong anywhere in Canada, as long as you execute well. But if you want to maximize your returns, then it pays to be more selective of where you invest. As David Greene often says on the BP podcast, cashflow and appreciation are a continuum, and appreciation is where the real long-term wealth is made. I would suggest you look at markets where there's reasonable cashflow with a good chance of appreciation. Halifax has been another hot market recently, and there I think it's justified. Prices have kept up with population growth, and unemployment is steady. Also, as mentioned by @Jeremie Rochon, northern ON is another hot market. The dominant industry there is mining, which has a brighter future than O&G, Four new mines coming to Canada - Canadian Mining Journal. As the world pivots away from China and Russia, clean and ethical producers like Canada will be the beneficiaries.

    As always, I welcome any feedback.

    .

    Great post Khai!

    I think there are a few things missing or out of context here, however. Yes, it is true that Canada has an immigration target of 1.5M people over the next 3 years but those people won't be spread equally throughout the country. 

    Yes oil and gas make a huge part of our GDP, in fact, the last data I've seen suggests it might be even higher than 25% (29%) and this is a major point of concern for me, this causes our market to be much more cyclical, however, look at the diversification that has been happening in the chart below and this continues to trend in the same direction, we still have good years of oil (and especially natural gas) demand ahead, I would be much more concern if we were not diversifying but we are, especially over the last few past years. 

    Regarding the unemployment rate it has not been trending up for 15 years, before the oil downturn it was the lowest in the country, then it went up in the downturn and has been trending down since. The unemployment rate also doesn't tell the whole picture as the labour force participation rate for example is at 69.7%, the highest in the country.

    I'm not sure where you see flat price growth since 2008. The Calgary housing market is very evidently cyclical, however, I think the flat prices from 2014-2020 (those were actually flat) are actually a good thing. This is part of the reason why the affordability here is so good and why we are seeing the lowest drop in prices right now, I honestly think that real estate in Calgary is underpriced by at least 25-30% (my opinion). 

    Now I think there are a few other things that you did not mention that make Calgary a very attractive place to invest.

    - Last quarter Alberta has received the largest interprovincial net migration on record and the largest in the country, Ontario losing the most resident, it's also worth noting that some of those people moving from Ontario to Alberta first immigrated from outside of Canada.

    - Alberta has a VERY landlord-friendly legal environment, with no rent control and much better tenancy laws.

    - Calgary has the highest average income of large cities in Canada along with the highest GDP per capita, which also translate to a capacity to pay much higher rents (once the supply is constrained which we are starting to see now)

    - Calgary also has very good affordability

    Cashflow is king in my opinion as it is what will save you in a down market, however you do need appreciation as well as it makes up a larger part of your ROI. Calgary ticks all those boxes in my book as we are still able to get decent net positive cashflow TODAY (how many large markets can you think of that can achieve this TODAY?) while still appreciating over the long term. What Calgary is not however is a great place to invest short term due to the cyclical nature. I also agree it usually makes sense to invest in markets with limited land, however, these markets provide no or negative cashflow, have horrible tenancy laws, and have become so speculative, expensive/unaffordable that I find them to be much more at risk of a severe correction.

    Now, I also see some potential for things to go bad over the medium/long term in Calgary if Alberta tries to resist the move to sustainable/renewable energy through political stubbornness. On the flip side, Alberta has the opportunity to become a leader in renewable/sustainable energy and it looks like natural gas demand will continue to go up while the transition happens. Given what we have seen in recent years I think this latter scenario is more likely to happen.

    I'm sorry if my response is much more scattered than yours 

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