50% rule and Refi

50% rule and Refi

Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes

Obviously a wise person would put away 6 months to 1 year of operating expenses for any property. Assuming that one did this, when following the 50% rule, is the property then labeled "self-sufficient?"

If this is true, one would theoretically buy alot of properties with not alot of reserve/emergency cash and credit. (Oh wait, that's me.) Am I thinking correctly here?

I'm trying to determine whether I should refinance my two properties into longer terms so I can actually meet the 50% rule. Before I started reading BP, I didn't know any of this and I had already acquired the two properties on 15 and 10 year notes (stupid). So now I have two properties that aren't even meeting 25%, let alone 50%. I'll lose thousands of dollars by refinancing due to closing costs, but it might be worth it.

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Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2010 · 1k+ posts · 928 votes
15y

Bryan -- you have great questions and should be commended. There are several rules of thumb here to keep up with, I think.

Gross potential rent - you want this to be at least 2% of your cost (purchase+rehab) per month if rents are in the $500/mth range. As rents go up, you can lower this target. A reasonable way to do this in many areas of the country is to subtract about .1% from the 2% target for each $100 that your rents are above $500. So for a nicer $1,000/mth property, you can use 1.5%. This reflects the flat reality that nicer properties are going to command a price premium when you buy, for a lot of reasons, and generally would be expected to hold their value better and attract better/longer term tenants, and offer easier resale to a retail owner/occupant buyer should you need to sale.

Expenses - assume these will be 50% of your gross rent (in this context, expenses includes vacancies, taxes, insurance, prop mgmt, repairs, replacement reserves). While it's reasonable to assume that the operating expense ratio will decline modestly for nicer properties with higher mthly rents, please always assume at least 50% to be conservative!! (Also keeps you out of arguments on this site!)

Net Operating Income (NOI) = Gross Potental Rent less Expenses. When taken as a percentage of your cost (purchase+rehab), this is the "cap rate", or net yield.

Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) - this is NOI divided by your P&I payment. For small residential rental property, you generally want this to be 2.0 or better (I target 2.5). I think you were confusing this with the 50% expense rule. This is where the loan payment comes into play. To protect your cash flow, you generally want your amortization term to be at least 20 years, and preferably 25-30.

Net Cash Flow = NOI minus P&I. This is where some say they want at least $100/unit, but obviously that should be scaled to the value of your investment in the property. If you keep your DSCR above 2.0, AND your Cash ROI above 20-25%, you’ll be fine.

Cash Return on Investment (Cash ROI) = Net Cash Flow divided by Cost. Keep this at 25% or more for $500/mth properties, and you can relax it toward 20% for 1,000/mth properties.

True ROI (ROI) = Net Cash Flow + Principal Amortization, then divide that by the Cost. This is your true economic return, but the Cash ROI is more important in KEEPING YOU AFLOAT should bad things happen.

Fully Indexed Cash Flow â€" if you’re using bank ARM loans, recompute Net Cash Flow assuming the highest possible rate on your Adjustable Rate loan (ARMs, see below), generally 6% higher than the initial note rate for most ARMs. For simplicity, just recalculate everything with the note rate 6 points higher (some banks actually force you to qualify at this higher rate), and see if you still have positive cash flow. The target is (you guessed it) that you still have positive cash flow.

Just put this stuff in a spreadsheet. It’s very simple. You need to specify minimum targets for Gross Potential Rent return (1.5%-2.0%), DSCR (2.0), and Cash ROI (20-25%), Fully Indexed Cash Flow (at least zero). The properties need to pass these tests.
_______________________________________

You can most definitely get 25-30 year amortization loans from both conventional lenders (secondary market, lowest rates but harder to qualify) and in-house bank lenders (banks keep these loans and have much more flexibility in qualifying you, lower fees, quick close, personal relationship with lender; BUT bank will generally not lock the rate for longer than 5-7 years). If you need to use an in-house loan, try to get an ARM that will remain in effect for 30 years.

A standard 5/1 ARM at a small bank would be fixed for 5 years at around 6.50%, then begin floating with annual resets at 1yr Tsy+3.50% for the remaining 25 years, would be limited to a 2% rate change each year, and 6% over the life. So it would never go higher than 12.50% for the 30 year term of the loan. That rate may sound shocking to you, but please consider that in a hyper-inflationary environment, you will be able to increase your rents due to the sharp growth in the renter pool. If you’re levered at 75% and your interest rate eventually goes up 6%, then to keep the same cash flow your cap rate needs to expand by 4.5% (6% * 75%). An increase in your cap rate from 12% to 16.5% is an increase of 37.5%. Thus if you can increase rents by 37.5%, then you have completely preserved your cash flow. And the loan rate can only move up 2% per year, so there is time to gradually push the increases through your leases. And note that to be conservative you should assume that your Fully Indexed Net Cash Flow is still positive with no rent increases whatsoever.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    Closing on 2 properties would cost approx 3200. Going to 30 year notes would do the following (Is it even possible to get 30 year notes on investment properties):

    I would take property #1 from 13% to 45%.
    I would take property #2 from 19% to 52%.

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    15y

    Bryan -

    I think you're missing the point/definition of the 50% Rule. Basically, the rule states that for a typical rental, over the long-term, the expenses (including rent loss and capital items) will be somewhere in the vicinity of 50% of the gross market rents.

    In other words, it's directly related to your rental income and your expenses, and has nothing whatsoever to do with your mortgage payment.

    Many investors want to see that using the 50% Rule and theoretically getting 100% LTV financing against the property, that the property still cash flows.

    What is your major concern here? Are you losing money every month on your rental? Is your cash-on-cash return too low (or negative)?

    If you can give us an idea of what the specific issue is, or what you're trying to optimize for, perhaps we can recommend the best way to accomplish that. But, just refinancing your properties isn't going to impact the rents you collect or the expenses you pay (the heart of the 50% Rule).

  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    JScott,

    My rental's Principal/Interest/Taxes/Insurance is 500. The rent is 600. I only cash flow about 100. (I didn't count depreciation or interest deduction) That is 13% which is not even close to 50%. Eventually this cost is going to catch up.

    My primary home, which I will have to move out of due to relocation, has a PITI of 510. It can rent for about 600. That's again around 13%. This cost will also catch up.

    Luckily I have a good job (teaching job) and I have some extra money per month. I don't want to get slammed with expenses from the two rental properties.

    The problem lies in the fact that both loans are short. The first property (the rental) is a 10 year loan. My primary is a 15 year loan. This is why I'm stuck at 13% (or thereabouts).

    I don't understand how this can't be an issue? I"m going to lose money eventually. Why shouldn't refinancing to a longer term be a smart move?

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    15y

    I'm not saying that refinancing is not a smart move -- if you can bring your PITI down, that might be a good thing long-term.

    But, what I am saying is that you're not using the 50% Rule correctly in your analysis.

    In your first example, your rental income is $600/month. According to the 50% Rule, you can expect your expenses to be about $300/month, give or take, over the long-term.

    That leaves $300 per month to go towards your debt service (principal and interest) and your profit (cash flow). So, in order to profit on this investment (assuming your property actually fits the 50% criteria), you'll need to get your mortgage payment (again, principal and interest) down to below $300/month.

    Btw, from an accounting perspective, that 13% you refer to *would* be your "margins" if you had figured out that percentage correctly. Unfortunately, it appears you are missing A LOT of stuff in the $500 expense number, including maintenance, vacancy, rent loss, capital costs, etc. My guess is that your long-term expenses plus debt service probably comes out to more than $600 per month, meaning you're losing money every month, not making $100/month.

  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    JScott-

    I think I understand this properly. I might cash flow 100 per property, but that's not cash flow. That "cash flow" will go out the window soon.

    I need to get my PITI at or below 50% of gross rents. Thus, I need the PITI to be at, or below, 300 for both properties.

    If I don't, I will learn a hard lesson, at least that's what it seems based on the information I've learned.

    I need to figure out whether or not 30 year terms are even offered for rental properties.

    -bp

  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    The other question is...

    IF 30 year refinance terms are available for rentals, is it worth the 3000 dollar hit to refinance? Logic says I'm going to pay 3000 in expenses, soon enough, if I keep negatively cash flow like I have now.

    -bp

  • Owen DashnerPro Member
    Lender · Omaha, NE · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y

    Bryan,

    The "TI" part of PITI payments falls under the expenses factored into the 50% rule of thumb. As JScott mentioned. Only principal and interest amounts should be considered when determining your loan payment, and the taxes and insurance should be lumped together will all the other expenses tied to owning a rental.

    Please keep in mind that this is simply a rule of thumb and should be used as a rough estimate on expenses, not to be used on a specific house-by-house basis. Your expenses can be MUCH higher or a little lower depending on your climate, county taxes, size of the units, etc...

  • Sharad M.Pro Member
    Carlsbad, CA · Member since 2010 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y

    BP-

    30 years refinance is possible depending your application meets all the requirements. And $3,000 in refi loan fee seems a bit high. On the two loans I did, I think my average fee came out to about ~ $1,500. Are you by any chance including escrow payments in the $3,000 number? If not, ask the bank to give you a detailed break out of the $3,000 number. You can probably talk to the bank to waive some of the fees but simply questioning all of them.

  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    Ok-if the "TI" part is a portion of the 50%, then I stand at 33%.

    That extra 17% has to come from somewhere. Is it better for me to pay for that 17% with my personal income and equity? Or is it worth paying the few thousand to refinance and solve the problem in that way?

    -bp

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    15y
    Originally posted by Bryan Patton:
    Ok-if the "TI" part is a portion of the 50%, then I stand at 33%.

    I still don't know what that means?

    33% of what?

    If your income is $600/month and your expenses are about $300/month (per the 50% Rule), then you have $300/month left over for debt service and profit.

    How much is your monthly mortgage payment?

  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Oklahoma City, OK · Member since 2011 · 114 posts · 38 votes
    15y

    Bryan, what are the interest rates on the loans you have? I wouldn't re-fi into a higher interest rate just to increase the length of the amortization.

    Using the numbers you gave, it looks like your negative cash flow will average out to around $100 a month, per property, until you pay off the 10-year note. If you have enough reserves and extra income to handle the cash flow loss, then paying off a property in 10 years may not be a bad investment. You may be able to raise your rents over time, particularly if we have some inflation.

    On the other hand, if you've made a bad investment, you should consider selling rather than putting another $6,000 into it.

    You should spend some time with a mortgage amortization calculator and look at how much interest you will be paying, and how much principal you will be paying down, both with your current loans and with 30-year loans.

  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    On both properties my PI is about 67% of gross rents. The extra 17% is the concern (per the 50% rule).

    The current rates on both properties are around 6%.

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    15y

    Here is a better rule to follow:

    If it ani't eat'n no hay, keep it the way it is.

    So, if a property costs you money to hold it, reevaluate your position.

    If it costs you more time than it's worth to hold a property, reevaluate your position.

    I assume you had a plan when you bought it, what happened to that plan? If you get off that horse in mid stream, you might get wet.

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    15y

    I have absolutely no idea what Bill said above, but I think I agree with him... :D

    Just because you can get your PI down to 50% of your gross rents doesn't turn this into a good deal, though if you're going to have trouble maintaining the property with negative cashflow, then it may be the right thing to do.

    I just don't want you to get into the mindset of "If I can just get my mortgage payment down by refinancing, it will become a good deal."

    Whether it was a good deal or not was determined BEFORE you purchased the property, not after...

  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    So you're saying a PI at or below 50% gross rents is only one part of the game? If so, I catch what you're throwing down.

    The next property I buy I will make sure I don't put myself in this predicament again. I wish I knew this when I bought the properties.

  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    Another question....

    Can you theoretically buy more and more properties if it each property bought meets the definition of a good deal (whatever that would be to you-I'd be interested to hear how you determine) and the 50% rule?

    In other words, are properties self-sufficient if the 50% rule is met?

  • Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2010 · 1k+ posts · 928 votes
    15y

    Bryan -- you have great questions and should be commended. There are several rules of thumb here to keep up with, I think.

    Gross potential rent - you want this to be at least 2% of your cost (purchase+rehab) per month if rents are in the $500/mth range. As rents go up, you can lower this target. A reasonable way to do this in many areas of the country is to subtract about .1% from the 2% target for each $100 that your rents are above $500. So for a nicer $1,000/mth property, you can use 1.5%. This reflects the flat reality that nicer properties are going to command a price premium when you buy, for a lot of reasons, and generally would be expected to hold their value better and attract better/longer term tenants, and offer easier resale to a retail owner/occupant buyer should you need to sale.

    Expenses - assume these will be 50% of your gross rent (in this context, expenses includes vacancies, taxes, insurance, prop mgmt, repairs, replacement reserves). While it's reasonable to assume that the operating expense ratio will decline modestly for nicer properties with higher mthly rents, please always assume at least 50% to be conservative!! (Also keeps you out of arguments on this site!)

    Net Operating Income (NOI) = Gross Potental Rent less Expenses. When taken as a percentage of your cost (purchase+rehab), this is the "cap rate", or net yield.

    Debt Service Coverage Ratio (DSCR) - this is NOI divided by your P&I payment. For small residential rental property, you generally want this to be 2.0 or better (I target 2.5). I think you were confusing this with the 50% expense rule. This is where the loan payment comes into play. To protect your cash flow, you generally want your amortization term to be at least 20 years, and preferably 25-30.

    Net Cash Flow = NOI minus P&I. This is where some say they want at least $100/unit, but obviously that should be scaled to the value of your investment in the property. If you keep your DSCR above 2.0, AND your Cash ROI above 20-25%, you’ll be fine.

    Cash Return on Investment (Cash ROI) = Net Cash Flow divided by Cost. Keep this at 25% or more for $500/mth properties, and you can relax it toward 20% for 1,000/mth properties.

    True ROI (ROI) = Net Cash Flow + Principal Amortization, then divide that by the Cost. This is your true economic return, but the Cash ROI is more important in KEEPING YOU AFLOAT should bad things happen.

    Fully Indexed Cash Flow â€" if you’re using bank ARM loans, recompute Net Cash Flow assuming the highest possible rate on your Adjustable Rate loan (ARMs, see below), generally 6% higher than the initial note rate for most ARMs. For simplicity, just recalculate everything with the note rate 6 points higher (some banks actually force you to qualify at this higher rate), and see if you still have positive cash flow. The target is (you guessed it) that you still have positive cash flow.

    Just put this stuff in a spreadsheet. It’s very simple. You need to specify minimum targets for Gross Potential Rent return (1.5%-2.0%), DSCR (2.0), and Cash ROI (20-25%), Fully Indexed Cash Flow (at least zero). The properties need to pass these tests.
    _______________________________________

    You can most definitely get 25-30 year amortization loans from both conventional lenders (secondary market, lowest rates but harder to qualify) and in-house bank lenders (banks keep these loans and have much more flexibility in qualifying you, lower fees, quick close, personal relationship with lender; BUT bank will generally not lock the rate for longer than 5-7 years). If you need to use an in-house loan, try to get an ARM that will remain in effect for 30 years.

    A standard 5/1 ARM at a small bank would be fixed for 5 years at around 6.50%, then begin floating with annual resets at 1yr Tsy+3.50% for the remaining 25 years, would be limited to a 2% rate change each year, and 6% over the life. So it would never go higher than 12.50% for the 30 year term of the loan. That rate may sound shocking to you, but please consider that in a hyper-inflationary environment, you will be able to increase your rents due to the sharp growth in the renter pool. If you’re levered at 75% and your interest rate eventually goes up 6%, then to keep the same cash flow your cap rate needs to expand by 4.5% (6% * 75%). An increase in your cap rate from 12% to 16.5% is an increase of 37.5%. Thus if you can increase rents by 37.5%, then you have completely preserved your cash flow. And the loan rate can only move up 2% per year, so there is time to gradually push the increases through your leases. And note that to be conservative you should assume that your Fully Indexed Net Cash Flow is still positive with no rent increases whatsoever.

  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    David-

    What is a target "True ROI" for 500/month type properties?

    You mentioned the Cash on Cash target at 25%. Ok-got it.

    The Debt Service Coverage ratio is a little confusing. So if I have a PI of 400 and Net Operating Income of 100, the DSCR is .25. I have no clue what you're talking about....2.0???

  • Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2010 · 1k+ posts · 928 votes
    15y

    Bryan --

    Your true ROI will be about 4 or 5 points higher than your cash ROI, depending on the amortization term of the loan. No real need to specify a target for that.

    DSCR = NOI divided by P&I. Your NOI is assumed $300 (gross rent * 50% expense ratio). Your P&I is unstated (it's some fraction of the $500 PITI), but let's assume it's $350. Your DSCR is then 300/350, or 0.86. Anything below 1.0 obviously denotes that you will be cash flow negative OVER TIME --maybe not this year-- as you incur repairs, vacancies, etc.

    You already knew that's where you stood; you just want to fix it. If the gross rents pass the 2% test, then you may want to keep the properties and get longer-term financing in place. Nobody likes closings costs, but they're a necessary evil to get the right financing into place. They'll dampen the ROI going forward, but will typically be recouped many many times over by the positive spread you earn on the bank's money.

    If the rents are considerably below 2%, then you need to think about selling them and seeking more optimal investment opportunities.

  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    David,

    You target DSCR at 2.0!!?????

    That would be the equivalent to renting at 900 dollars with a 300 PI.

    How do you get 2.0 LET alone 2.5????

    Do you put down alot of cash that allows this number to that high?

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    15y
    Originally posted by Bryan Patton:

    You target DSCR at 2.0!!?????

    That would be the equivalent to renting at 900 dollars with a 300 PI.

    As an example, my most recent rental has the following numbers:

    - Purchase Price: $42K
    - Rehab: $7K
    - Refi: Pull out 75% of $49K at 7.25% interest amortized over 20 years
    - Debt Service: $290/month
    - Gross Rental Income: $950/month

    Assuming 50% Rule holds, NOI is about $475 and DSCR is about 1.65.

    I consider this a decent deal, though not fantastic. I know plenty of investors who are seeing DSCR of around 2 for rental in this area...

  • Member since 2010 · 136 posts · 3 votes
    15y

    If I had my rental property for a 30 year fixed at 6%, the DSCR would be 1.70.

    But because I only have it for a 10 year note, the DSCR is 0.63.

    Ok-makes sense. The terms are thus a hugely important part.

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