Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
My wife who is also my listing broker on one of the subdivisions we are building here in town just handed me a report of the homes we sold in the last 2 weeks. all new builds sold 8 of them
why the market won't melt down like 08 3 sales are CASH.. and the rest is conventional 20% down or more.. NOT ONE FHA ...
Ergo people who pay cash don't walk from houses and people that put 20% or more down RARELY walk from houses... and here in PDX these homes at todays rent's would just about break even in a worse case scenario.. for the cash buyers they would NET about 5% to 6% return probably higher because of lack of turn over or Cap ex and maintenance on brand new home.. Strong fundamentals in my mind.
Go back to the dark ages when I was selling my homes in 2004 to 2007.. Rare was a cash sale ( can't actually remember one) and rare was the sale not FHA or 100% financed in some manner.
I like this new model and mind set of the Home buyer today.. lets put a little cash into the homes and start out on solid foundation. I am seeing the same thing in our Charleston new builds and that as all the way on the other side of the world of course.. but same metrics some cash sales and almost all conventional.
Good news indeed. You must remember the day when "everyone" put down 20% ;-)
Here in Canada, you are still seeing lots of high-ratio mortgages.
I am curious to see the new mortgage arrears and default numbers for 2015 and 2016-Q1 ... historically mortgage arrears in this country are < 0.5% and defaults are even lower, but if one were to extrapolate by the number of mortgage sale notices in the paper this spring, that may be rising.
@Jay Hinrichs here in DC it is a very similar situation. Prices are way up, but 25% of transactions are all cash, and most of the rest are high down payment conventional or jumbo loans. The low down payment people cant even compete in our market place.
Good news indeed. You must remember the day when "everyone" put down 20% ;-)
Here in Canada, you are still seeing lots of high-ratio mortgages.
I am curious to see the new mortgage arrears and default numbers for 2015 and 2016-Q1 ... historically mortgage arrears in this country are < 0.5% and defaults are even lower, but if one were to extrapolate by the number of mortgage sale notices in the paper this spring, that may be rising.
I've only been on this site for a short while now but I respect both of your opinions.
This market feels very much like 2006 to me. Buy, buy buy go the buyers and sellers are selling quickly with multiple offers. Inventory in my area is very low and has been for some time.
No 80/20 loans but I'm seeing plenty of FHA and no down payment conventional loans in the lower end of the market. These are more vulnerable than the buyers you mentioned but I wonder how sustainable these low interest rates are? What will happen to home prices when they rise and affordability becomes the issue not lack of inventory?
@Roy N. when I started HML in the states ( CA) most of our loans were owner occ 80 10 and 10.
banks would only go 80% so it was us HML who did the 10% seconds.. they were generally 5 to 20k max.. 5 points 15% due in 2 years. The company I eventually ended up owning did thousands of these over the years.. then the thrifts and S and L's entered and took that business from us along with FHA loans etc. its then we moved to investor loans.
And yes Canadians Pay their mortgages at a rate that is to be commeneded
I agree @Jay Hinrichs. If we keep going like this for years, I think we may hit some kind of impasse largely because of lack of inventory (at least in the Charleston market, which is the epitome of a hot market for many reasons). Most of the folks that I represent are securing very manageable and reasonable loans with quite stringent qualifications. There is a lot of cash moving around here and I see very few scary loans in the area here.