Sell or keep renting? How to decide?

Sell or keep renting? How to decide?

Investor · Cardiff By The Sea, CA · Member since 2015 · 14 posts · 5 votes

Hi All,

We own a 2 bd/2ba condo in a luxury high rise in downtown San Jose. We purchased it when we lived up there, and then have had it rented for about 5 years.  We are living in San Diego now.  San Jose has a ton of new high rises being built (5000 high rise condos or apartments are in the process of construction, or have been approved for construction, etc).  

Obviously developers think that the downtown of San Jose is worth investing in.  We have about $150K of equity in our condo (after taxes etc if we sell).  We essentially break even on the unit right now. Monthly cost to maintain unit runs about $4k. My concerns are that they could over build, and rents and property values would go down until it the units fill up again.  We could face vacancies and/or have to lower the rent and carry a loss for a while.

it seems that property values should eventually go up, if the downtown gets nicer, busier, has more jobs, restaurants, retail, etc.  Silicon valley needs more housing and jobs are in abundance.  The downtown of San 

I am not sure how to decide on whether to rent again (lease is coming up for current tenants and they are moving out) or sell now?

Any thoughts would be appreciated!

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Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
9y

$4,000 a month in expenses? You've rented it for five years and are just breaking even?

We are experiencing one of the hottest rental markets in history and you are only breaking even. Others are familiar with the neighborhood and say it's a bad place to invest. You're basically holding onto a really expensive pig hoping the California government will make the right choices and improve the community. Those are some terrible odds.

Dump it and move your money to a more affordable, Landlord friendly state that is on an upswing.

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  • Investor · Champaign-Urbana, IL · Member since 2014 · 84 posts · 49 votes
    9y
    I live in SD as well and think about scenarios like these often with my own rentals. Personally, I think the San Jose market is a strong market so if you can afford to carry a temporary loss for a short time, I say keep renting it. I believe in the long term the equity and appreciation you'll get out of that condo will be worth the losses you may carry during a dip in the market, even if that dip lasts a few years. You just have to make sure you have money reserved so you're not struggling financially if and when the market does drop.
  • Lender · San Diego, CA · Member since 2011 · 664 posts · 231 votes
    9y

    Could you sell it and do a 1031 exchange into another rental property down here that would give you better appreciation? Maybe you could find a nice 4 plex to roll it into that is a better rental to own.

  • Lee RipmaPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Prairie Village, KS · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    @Lenore C.

    What is your goal? Do you want passive cash flow? A stable place to park your cash? Do you want the money for something else? If there isn't something else you want to do with the money now I'd keep holding it. As it appreciates you'll be able to pull money out of it either through cash-out refi or HELOC to fund other investments. If that's your goal. I guess my thought is that if you're just selling it out of fear and not for some reason then you should probably just hold it. If you've got another plan/goal that requires selling it then maybe think about doing so. If you don't like managing it you could take all that money tax free and start investing passively. My point here is that there are so many options and without a goal it's tough to evaluate them.

    Keep us posted! 

  • Rental Property Investor · Maryville, TN · Member since 2009 · 529 posts · 414 votes
    9y

    Historical appreciation = 3 percent. Does 3 percent per year change your outlook? Besides the history of residential real estate appreciation , does your city have an extra ordinary driver of home prices?? higher than average job prospects? Major employer moving to the area? Park going in next door? Etc. Timing the market so you realize gains can be soooo difficult, especially with yearly tenants in place. I personally can't imagine going negative cash flow for speculative gains

  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Will G.:

    Historical appreciation = 3 percent. Does 3 percent per year change your outlook? Besides the history of residential real estate appreciation , does your city have an extra ordinary driver of home prices?? higher than average job prospects? Major employer moving to the area? Park going in next door? Etc. Timing the market so you realize gains can be soooo difficult, especially with yearly tenants in place. I personally can't imagine going negative cash flow for speculative gains

    San Jose's appreciation has far surpassed 3% per year. It was 7% in the last year. I believe someone with Neighbor scout subscription could get the exact appreciation but I suspect it is over 10%/year for last 50 years. So 10% annually is big money with an average SFR of $810k.

    If I were OP I would sell only if I had a 1031 exchange investment that I thought could do better.  In most areas I would not think it likely to get a better return than San Jose but it may be possible in San Diego especially if the are over building in San Jose. 

  • CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    I would sell in a heart beat.... Downtown San Jose is one weird spot in super hot Bay Area real estate market.... not many jobs, most people would NOT live there, rent or own.... Vacancy is a very real threat there... I had a friend who had a 18 month vacancy in the last down turn....I would sell it now when the market is still good....
  • CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    Evergreen, downtown San Jose, Almenden are the 3 spots in San Jose that I would NOT touch...
  • Investor · Garland, TX · Member since 2015 · 110 posts · 43 votes
    9y

    Sounds like @Diane G. knows what she's talking about. From an outside prespective you would pay a lot of tax if you sold.

  • Investor · Cardiff By The Sea, CA · Member since 2015 · 14 posts · 5 votes
    9y

    Thank you all for your thoughts.  We actually lived up there for a few years and it is a weird spot.  Currently, the city is investing in trying to change the downtown and has approved about 5000 - 8000 new condos (rent &/or buy) in addition to lots of office space, and mixed use, retail, entertainment, restaurants, etc.  Obviously they are trying to make it an attractive place for folks (read millennials) who work in silicon valley.  There is a lot of employment 15 to 30 minute commute.  Lots of builders have started building and a lot of money is being invested.  We saw Oakland transform a lot, and other areas.  Its so hard to know if this will work (i.e. downtown San Jose could become a nice place to live) or there will be overbuilding and empty units.

    I appreciate everyone's points of view.

    @Bruce May Given all of the building, new apartments, coffee shops, co-working spaces, etc, do you think downtown San Jose could transform? There are about 6 high rises now that are filling up.  Rents are not cheap ($3300- $3600 for a 2 bedroom) and lots of employment, but as you know also lots of homeless, and it has historically been a strange area.

  • Shawn CouchBusiness Member
    Investor · Encinitas, CA · Member since 2013 · 116 posts · 48 votes
    9y

    @Lenore C., how much would you have if you did the 1031 and didn't pay cap gains tax? How is the market for selling in downtown SJ? I would think you could find something in SD that would mimic or do better than your SJ deal, and if it was here and you manage it, you get a 8-10% boost in top line cash flow right there. Share some estimated and real numbers, such as value, equity, payment, taxes and the rent you get (plus HOA, or any unusual expenses for that building). One benefit of owning a condo in a newer building is that you won't have any direct Cap Expenditures, but the upside/downside is you pay into that monthly with the HOA dues.

  • CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y
    @ Lenore C - all those new build add to the supply side of things, but did nothing to demand.... when you have homeless on every corner, and when you get your car smashed if you stop at night for business dinner, you won't want to live there, trust me... I really would sell if I were you... Also note that most new business that started in the last 5-10 years are all North of Palo Alto.... SJ downtown has its best days behind it already..... And expect the sell to be a long one if you decide to sell, still way better than hold onto it in my opinion...
  • Rental Property Investor · Maryville, TN · Member since 2009 · 529 posts · 414 votes
    9y

    Well i stand corrected, Dan states 10 percent appreciation for the last 50 years! so a $100k home bought in 1970 will sell for over $7 million in 2020!

  • Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
    9y

    $4,000 a month in expenses? You've rented it for five years and are just breaking even?

    We are experiencing one of the hottest rental markets in history and you are only breaking even. Others are familiar with the neighborhood and say it's a bad place to invest. You're basically holding onto a really expensive pig hoping the California government will make the right choices and improve the community. Those are some terrible odds.

    Dump it and move your money to a more affordable, Landlord friendly state that is on an upswing.

    The DIY Landlord Book4.7248 Reviews
  • Investor · Cardiff By The Sea, CA · Member since 2015 · 14 posts · 5 votes
    9y

    @Nathan Gesner

    If we did a 1031 exchange, we would probably have something over $200K out of the sale.  Strangely I have not really looked very much at the real estate market here (San Diego) other than buying our primary residence, because I have been focused on areas where we are getting good cash flow.  But I would be very interested to learn about opportunities in the San Diego area.  The big question I have re San Jose is wondering if the area will gentrify and if we will get another big pop in appreciation because of it?  Or if it will appreciate slowly, or the risk is that they will overbuild, and it could actually go down in value for a while.  One of those crystal ball questions I am afraid!

  • Investor · Cardiff By The Sea, CA · Member since 2015 · 14 posts · 5 votes
    9y

    Thank you all for your thoughts, and @Fabio Salas, thank you for your service!

  • CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Lenore C.

    60 days selling is considered very long in Bay Area now....If you go look at Redwood city, Mountain View, or Sunnyvale, mostly 5-10 days.....Palo Alto is probably overnight.....

    Market won't be this good for ever....Get out of it while you can....

  • Real Estate Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2009 · 183 posts · 153 votes
    9y

    @Lenore C. Actually it was your personal residence for 2 of the last 5 years so you can sell it and receive all proceeds(Profit) tax free.  Please check with your accountant to verify.  If this is the case I would sell it as your tax free profits are going to run out soon.

    If you can't sell it and receive this profit tax free I would only sell if you have a better investment in mind, otherwise just keep it and over time it will more than likely pan out to continue being a good investment.  You will never time the market perfect so just look at large time spans such as 10 years.

    Goodluck...

  • Engineer · Carlsbad/San Diego · Member since 2014 · 285 posts · 97 votes
    9y

    @Diane G.Palo Alto overnight..lol. BTW, where would you put SFO in comparison on time to sell?

  • CA · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @ Hersh M.

    Well, I am not incorrect in saying Palo Alto is overnight, am I?

    And market has cooled down quite significantly in SF in the last 3 months, both resell and rental...Listings are sitting...

    It is just a matter of time that South Bay is going to see the same cooling down....Listings are at 2X or 3X compared to last year...The best time to sell, unfortunately in my opinion, has passed....

  • Dylan VargasPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Chico, CA · Member since 2016 · 625 posts · 336 votes
    9y

    @Lenore C. SELL! For $4000 per month in payment imagine what other investments you could have. You already received the appreciation so I would move on. @Diane G. and @Nathan Gesner are right on. Good luck!

  • Professional · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2014 · 876 posts · 301 votes
    9y

    Hi @Lenore C., if you're an accredited investor, decide to sell and want to defer your capital gains taxes you might consider learning about DSTs. They are hands-off, institutional grade real estate investments, and they allow you the option to diversify. By reinvesting in 1031-qualified DSTs, you purchase ownership interest in multimillion dollar properties that offer long-term income - and don't require you to be a landlord.

  • Investor · Coppell, TX · Member since 2008 · 2k+ posts · 646 votes
    9y

    Hey Leslie Pappas, once again you have shown up on this site just advertising and not even asking a question.  This site is not for people to advertise.  How long have you gotten away with this technique?  You are not the only one doing this.  Stop it before you are made to leave this site forever but I am sure you will figure out how to get around that obstacle so you can hopefully make a sale.  The purpose of this site is not self promotion!

  • Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
    9y

    @Leslie Pappas the rules of the board are clear: no advertising a business except for in the marketplace forum. Your post is trying to sell your product, not answer her question. You can read the BP rules HERE.

    @Michael Lee: click the "..." in the upper-right of her post and report anyone you think is violating the terms of the board.

    The DIY Landlord Book4.7248 Reviews
  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    downtown SJ being a terrible, has been market...according to Diane. Hmmm....perhaps @Account Closed would like to weigh in, as I think he has a little experience with the area...

  • Investor · Coppell, TX · Member since 2008 · 2k+ posts · 646 votes
    9y

    Hello!  Thank you Nathan for your response!

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