Are prices dropping yet?

Buying & Selling Real Estate
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Are prices dropping yet?

Roger R.
Member since 2018 · 48 posts · 12 votes

I see the signs on the wall of a slowing economy, but I'm not seeing a huge drop in prices at least in NYC.  What is everyone seeing across the country?

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Mike Dymski
Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes
7y
Originally posted by @Roger R.:

I see the signs on the wall of a slowing economy

 Tell that to the Federal Reserve.

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  • Ryan Koehler
    Arlington, VA · Member since 2013 · 115 posts · 40 votes
    7y

    Value growth in Northern Virginia has been consistently strong since the recession and has only picked up the pace with Amazon's HQ2 selection for the area. It's difficult to find MLS listings near Arlington or Alexandria that don't mention being "close to the new Amazon Headquarters" in its write-up.

    In Baltimore I'm beginning to see a stagnation in prices with most properties sitting online for 30-60+ days. 

    1Reply
  • Ayo O.
    Rental Property Investor · HOUSTON, TX - Texas · Member since 2017 · 93 posts · 19 votes
    7y
    @Roger Roth I think the answer to your question depends on who you ask.I personally think it's starting to slow down and the conditions are just not right for s healthy market.Things like longer DOM, larger than usual inventory, climbing interest rates, are all tell take signs on an impending market correction.I don't think it is a widespread slowdown yet but seeing several homes sit in the market for 5-7 months,bothers me
    1Reply
  • Charlie MacPherson
    China, ME · Member since 2014 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    7y

    I'm not seeing any sign of prices falling.  In the first 3 quarters of 2018 (vs 2017), Plymouth County MA prices were up 11%, 6% and 4%.

    So prices are still increasing, but the rate of increase is slowing.  My best guess is that price increases will stabilize in the 3%-5% per year range.

    1Reply
  • Jess White
    Rental Property Investor · San Jose, CA · Member since 2018 · 152 posts · 159 votes
    7y
    @Roger Roth Bay Area is down 10+ %
    1Reply
  • Account Closed
    Rental Property Investor · Oakland, CA · Member since 2014 · 730 posts · 1k+ votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Jess White:
    @Roger Roth Bay Area is down 10+ %

    Perhaps San Jose or Cupertino were listing prices were likely over-inflated to begin with. But not in Oakland. It's still rising here. 

    1Reply
  • Joe SplitrockPro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
    7y

    @Roger R. you say "I see the signs on the wall of a slowing economy". Can you please explain those signs? 

    0Reply
  • Garrett Diegel
    Rental Property Investor · NV · Member since 2014 · 241 posts · 85 votes
    7y

    Slow down in Northern Nevada, homes on the market a bit longer with prices dropping, but, there is a new housing shortage as well so we'll see how the builders keep up. @Jay Hinrichs - I'd be interested to hear more about Vegas and what you are seeing there in the buy and hold market. 

    0Reply
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    7y

    @Garrett Diegel  I am no help there as I don't buy and hold.  We do half dozen flips a year here and the one I finished 2 weeks ago is already sale pending.   Lower price points under 300k in starter owner occ areas.

    I think now that investors have cooled down its giving homeowners a chance to actually buy a starter house they are not having to make over bids and or get beat out by cash buyers.  this is good.. folks need to be able to buy that first home without being under a ton of stress through the process.

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  • Garrett Diegel
    Rental Property Investor · NV · Member since 2014 · 241 posts · 85 votes
    7y

    Thanks @Jay Hinrichs , I appreciate your input. We are mainly buy and hold investors in Northern NV so we have yet to get into the flipping world. I'd be interested in learning a bit on the flip side and doing one here or there to generate cash for hold investing. 

    0Reply
  • Matt K.
    Walnut Creek, CA · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Jess White:
    @Roger Roth Bay Area is down 10+ %

    Perhaps San Jose or Cupertino were listing prices were likely over-inflated to begin with. But not in Oakland. It's still rising here. 

     or the cherry picked doom and gloom examples on socket site lol

    1Reply
  • Tyler Erickson
    Appraiser · Denver, CO · Member since 2018 · 40 posts · 58 votes
    7y
    @Roger Roth We’re seeing a definite surge in non-metro REO appraisal work orders coming through the office in both CO and MN... But otherwise, no definite signs of a slowdown other than possibly fewer purchases, overall.
    0Reply
  • Ryan Walley
    Member since 2017 · 5 posts · 3 votes
    7y

    In Orlando and the vacation markets, SP to OLP is down around 80% in many markets - meaning sellers aren't getting what they were asking (or brokers were pushing for higher prices.  Or some of both.)  Homes ARE sitting longer - 3-6+mo is norm for the upper half of the market price range to sell, even at over a million here.   Prices have continued to climb but there is a lot of building happening in Southwest and Northwest Orlando with a ton more to come in the north in Hamlin/Winter Garden, FL and on the area's eastside in Lake Nona.  I don't predict a price drop anytime soon for most areas.

    1Reply
  • Ryan Walley
    Member since 2017 · 5 posts · 3 votes
    7y
    10+% from when?  Past 12 mo?

    Originally posted by @Jess White:
    @Roger Roth Bay Area is down 10+ %
    1Reply
  • Kevin Wood
    Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2013 · 471 posts · 267 votes
    7y

    Spoke to my investor friend in Hayward area earlier this week. He is seeing signs of a slow down in the Bay. Properties are finally closing below asking which is a big change from 2-3 years ago. Prices seem to be down 8-10%. 

    0Reply
  • Dustin P.
    Realtor · Tempe, AZ · Member since 2017 · 541 posts · 442 votes
    7y

    Phoenix days on market are getting a little longer but prices still holding in most areas. Most flippers are factoring in another 2 months of holding costs and being a little more conservative on ARVs. Rehab properties still sell like hot cakes though and rents are going up a lot.

    I had a flip in Glendale that wasn't moving and I didn't want to wait it out so refinancing and renting, should cash flow about $400/mo

    0Reply
  • Louis D.
    Rental Property Investor · 95660 · Member since 2018 · 46 posts · 17 votes
    7y
    I'm in Cameron park just outside Sacramento. In our area things are slightly slower with prices holding. Its what I would consider a normal market. I can't recall that in this area in last twenty years. It's always been a buyer's or sellers market in the past. Cameron park homes average about 100k more then Sacramento average of 350k.
    0Reply
  • Bryan Eltzroth
    Investor · Cincinnati, OH · Member since 2017 · 15 posts · 19 votes
    7y

    Yes the market has peaked and we are close to a recession but I wouldn't expect prices to fall too much. There isn't as much exposure on the mortgage side as there was in 05-06 so a slowdown won't cause so many people to default on their mortgages.

    We will probably just see a flatline in pricing as interest rates go up.

    Obviously this is speaking in generalities. Here in Cincinnati we still have a strong market for new builds and single family owner occ properties.

    0Reply
  • Kevin PolitePro Member
    Investor · Decatur Atlanta, GA · Member since 2011 · 610 posts · 232 votes
    7y

    Supply has gone up slightly in Atlanta but no price decreases. 60-90 days on market has been the statistical average over the long term. I overheard another investor get nervous because his house was on the market for 10 days.  I seriously doubt we’ll get overall price reductions but instead the market is normalizing, so what seems like a slowdown is actually the market trying to get back to normal. No more multiple offers and/or 2 days on the market.

    0Reply
  • Ruhin Qasemi
    West Palm Beach, FL · Member since 2018 · 3 posts · 0 votes
    7y

    @Roger Roth

    Definitely slowing down in west palm beach,fl area but not a significant change. Homes are staying on the market longer then 3-6 months ago.

    0Reply
  • Pradeep Tiwari
    Bellevue, WA · Member since 2015 · 59 posts · 13 votes
    7y

    My thesis is, upper range homes are getting price reductions etc but low-mid, fixers etc are getting interest from other segments.. Redfin/Zillow estimates 15-18% rise in price this year for Tacoma WA homes and I don’t see anyone reducing price for any sub-mid $250k homes .. 

    1Reply
  • Henry Lazerow
    Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    7y

    In Chicago 2-4 units are in strong demand and appreciating. Higher end residential housing has leveled out and fallen in some neighborhoods. The demand for rentals from millenial renters in urban cities I only see strengthening and this trend continuing of growth even as other real estate classes eventually all level out or fall. 

    1Reply
  • Zach Evanish
    Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2012 · 185 posts · 105 votes
    7y

    There is softening for higher end properties but properties below $300k where most of us are investing are still very strong with more demand than supply.

    1Reply
  • Ike Hobbs
    Investor · Wichita, KS · Member since 2016 · 133 posts · 63 votes
    7y

    Great thread. Cool to see so many perspectives across the nation. 

    Tacoma area of WA is holding pretty steady except for highend homes. The 200-300k range that fits most first time buyers in the area is seeing higher DOM. I'm also seeing a lot of price adjustments but this is coming more from people overreaching rather than losing value. 

    Also of note, this is winter and seasonality does affect home purchases. I'm anticipating a steady year with some price jumps in April-July in my market but not major. 

    3Reply
  • Christina Fusch
    Rental Property Investor · Seattle, WA · Member since 2015 · 6 posts · 1 vote
    7y

    I agree with Isaac Hobbs on seasonality. I expect prices to cool in the fall/winter season as buyers focus away from real estate, but then an increase in prices in the spring/summer for house hunting season. The majority of my SFR buying has been done in the fall/winter offseason as my competition is less and sellers have been more motivated.

    0Reply
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