Are prices dropping yet?

53 Replies

I see the signs on the wall of a slowing economy, but I'm not seeing a huge drop in prices at least in NYC.  What is everyone seeing across the country?

we are for sure seeing plateau's in owner occ stuff and some discounts on higher end stuff.. 

150k and under investor grade see no real slow down or price concessions.. as there is a run to cash flow.

In Las Vegas, properties below $200k are still going up.  

Same floor plan Townhouse that was sold for $180k in Dec 2017, is sold at $235k in Dec 2018. 

Same floor plan condo that was sold for $125k in Aug 2018, is sold at $145k in Nov 2018. 

Is the price slowing down?...

Not the properties below $200k...

In SFH, seeing sellers reduce their asking prices to garner interest but not by much. ie...$975k to 950k.

In general, it has definitely started flat lined at the least.

Not seeing a slow down in Atlanta or Detroit.

I expect that we are closer to the peak in Atlanta, but it will be fragmented. I think Beltline will keep buzzing along.

Detroit is ramping up.... no slow down here

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Originally posted by @Roger Roth :

I see the signs on the wall of a slowing economy

 Tell that to the Federal Reserve.

@Roger Roth if your able to buy in a city where rent is around 30% or less of the median income there is typically room for growth still. I'm basing this off markets i'm invested in and NYC is not one of them. 

Originally posted by @Account Closed :

Las Vegas condotels have been on a tear since Summer months of  2018.  Lows 3 years ago.

Stock Market on a TEAR since 2008 till 2018.

Please don't think what happens in stock market doesn't happen in RE.

Problem is no one knows when or the degree.

My stock portfolio not doing all that great.   I like that joke my 401k is now a 301k.

"Residents Should Not Panic": Thousands Of Las Vegas Homes Get ZERO Offers For November 2018 New data published by the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors shows 10,000 single-family homes were on the market and by the end of November, 7,000 of those homes had zero offers, up 54% compared to 2017 and the highest number of homes in Las Vegas Valley to not get a bid in more than two years.

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Originally posted by @Ran L. :

In Las Vegas, properties below $200k are still going up.  

Same floor plan Townhouse that was sold for $180k in Dec 2017, is sold at $235k in Dec 2018. 

Same floor plan condo that was sold for $125k in Aug 2018, is sold at $145k in Nov 2018. 

Is the price slowing down?...

Not the properties below $200k...

 yup I have a vegas flip under 250k sold in 5 days

Originally posted by @Mike M. :
Originally posted by @Bill O Brady:

Las Vegas condotels have been on a tear since Summer months of  2018.  Lows 3 years ago.

Stock Market on a TEAR since 2008 till 2018.

Please don't think what happens in stock market doesn't happen in RE.

Problem is no one knows when or the degree.

My stock portfolio not doing all that great.   I like that joke my 401k is now a 301k.

"Residents Should Not Panic": Thousands Of Las Vegas Homes Get ZERO Offers For November 2018 New data published by the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors shows 10,000 single-family homes were on the market and by the end of November, 7,000 of those homes had zero offers, up 54% compared to 2017 and the highest number of homes in Las Vegas Valley to not get a bid in more than two years.

During last recession, Las Vegas had 20,000 to 30,000 homes without offer.  

Compare 7000 homes without offers to 20,000 homes in year 2008...

Las Vegas is still in a seller market today...

I have a friend who flips over 600 homes in Vegas each year. HE is doing great and still kicking ***. He is seeing the newbies get creamed already. He is warning for newbies to leave it to the pros at this point. I trust him because he doesn't have or fear any competition out there. He just tells me like it is.

In Tampa... seeing some flattening out but not much

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Things are slowing down in some markets like LA, LV, AZ, Dallas, Seattle, Denver, but the slow down hasn't equaled price drops per say. Take LA, homes priced correctly are still selling within 35 days. Appreciation has slowed, the market has neutralized, but I don't see any reversing yet. Not a crash. The craze over the past 5 years is definitely cooling off. The bond markets are scary, so is the stock volatility, and while not all RE locales have recovered to pre-crash levels, for all intents and purposes, I believe we are at the top of the market for most major areas. Detroit I believe, has a long way up to move yet. We will see what happens. If the economy hits the rocks, so will the RE recovery   

Parts of the residential market are slower - such as luxury housing.   But most of us here are investors with rental portfolios.    A type of correction may be starting with multi-family.  Not necessarily a major price correction, but a drop in transaction volume.  So new buyers think things are overpriced.  Sellers are not adjusting their prices quickly.  So fewer deals happening.

So there are less houses without an offer than in 2016....we're people saying the housing market was slow 2 years ago? 3500 houses sold per month on average so now a 2 month supply is too much? I thought we wanted 6 months (18,000) just to be balanced? Plus the 7,000 SFR includes 2000 condos. Very different market than houses in Vegas.

Part of it is sellers here will rarely drop their price. If they can’t getting asking or within a few percent they either let it go stale or pull it back off market. Either they have a plan for a certain amount of money or don’t want to sell without making a killing. 

December may be a fast selling time of the year in other markets but not vegas. If demand goes down after school gets out we can worry about a plateau especially as it seems the feds are finally going to pause after this next rate increase, although before woulda been better.  With the nations 2nd fastest rising rents this year after Phoenix, all the better. 

Detroit is a different market. Truly the tale of 2 cities.  Having closed 100+ mortgages in Detroit the past few years we are seeing prices still rise be the average price is deceiving. 

Downtown/midtown/Corktown/New Center/The villages are seeing $400sqft or higher. Most of the other neighborhoods have good homes at $40sq ft. 

Anecdotally I am seeing more buyers in the low-mid level while some of the higher end luxury seem to be sitting. 

MF is still overpriced in my market-western Wa. We are 2-3 hrs SW of Seattle; so not much to do with that market. If the 'investment' does not provide an acceptable return to me I do not see the point. Just keep looking, something that meets my criteria will come along. Primarily looking for 6-20 unit buildings.

In Sonoma County we saw a 3.5% decrease in price from November 2017. We lost over 5,300 homes in the Wine Country fires last October. Making the inventory of available homes was unseasonably low for the last three months of last year. The inventory of homes and condominiums available in Sonoma County at the end of November stands at 1,018,  90% ahead of the inventory in November 2017 (535) and down 12% from the inventory last month (1,160). A relatively high inventory for recent years but not an unreasonably high number for historical purposes. Some of the percentages are quite high comparing this year to last and that is partly driven by the fires last year. 

They have started to top off but we haven't crashed ...yet.

@Account Closed

Care to expand on your 2 statements? I'm genuinely interested in what you mean....

"Im really worried for the people who bought recently at disgusting rent to price ratios. They are going to get CREAMED. No doubt in my mind."

"Bills 100% recession indicator. That Asian Resort next to the Trump International is due to come online in 2020. Are we really supposed to think they going to OPEN to a booming economy?"

Northern CO area. Prices are softening, and homes are sitting longer than earlier in the year, but DOM is still ridiculously low. 30-60 days. Homes are no longer selling for above asking, but they're not seeing much discount. 1-2% maybe. 

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