Recession, Market Crash, Bubble ??

[Jay Hinrichs]

Well main stream media is now coming out with comments like.

"WE are already in a slump in RE  new construction is down  But real estate is not going to lead a recession.. "

so what that will do is boost consumer confidence for all those fence sitters waiting for real estate to devalue in their markets by some 

big meltdown %... and as an asset class should sale right through the trough we are in and or have entered.

ALot of why construction is down is the lack of land.. keep in mind builders need 2 to 5 years to get permits. and Spec financing has not fully rebounded as well.. so lack of product lack of liquidity in the space.. and you can see that by the fact that if you asked a HML 3 to 5 years ago for a ground up spec loan it would have been flat NO.. now becasue the banks have not come roaring back into the space that has left a void and you can now get ground up from HML .. although qualifications are tougher than for a fix and flip.

Regardless once the media starts to talk about how real estate is not going to be the catalyst to the recession we will at some point enter.. You will get the herd mentality going..  

So who knows.. all i know is when the media harps on bad stuff people lock up.. if the media starts back with Real estate is OK i think people will engage again.

and cities are causing a lot of these issues with over regulation.. 

[Russell Brazil]

The over regulation though becomes good for us buy and hold guys. If the builders cant build a competing product, demand remains high for my product. 

Market cycles dont matter for a buy and hold guy either. Borrowing at these rates for a couple decades is the easiest path to becoming a multimillionaire.  Between debt reduction and appreciation, Im banking about $50k per year per property, and another $12k in free cash flow. Easy as anything, but the BP folk keep telling me I cant make money on the propertys I buy.