Picking a cashflow market to scale

Picking a cashflow market to scale

Rental Property Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2021 · 24 posts · 30 votes

Hello community,

I am evaluating some cashflow markets that I am interested in and would like to share my findings and thoughts on the subject and listen to your feedback. Critiques are encouraged as this is a combination of research and personal opinions.

I'm based in Chicago, own 2 properties(6 total units), really discouraged to invest in Chi because of anti landlord policies, rising crime and taxes etc. Currently debating between 4 options:

1. NW Indiana(Hammond, Portage, Lake station).

Cons - Low appreciation, less options for pm and contractors, population loss.

Pros - Close proximity/more control, landlord friendly, less competition, low prices, decent housing stock(small MF), predictable taxes.

2. Cleveland, OH and suburbs

Cons - High crime rate and unemployment will result in property tax increases over time, tenant friendly, population loss from Cleveland proper. Relatively high competition, seems to be a problem to find good pm. Suburbs have high taxes.

Pros - a lot of big developments, great cultural life, cheap properties, great housing stock(a lot of small and medium size MF) suburbs offer solid class B for low price, good appreciation.

3. Cincinatti, OH

Cons - very high crime, a lot of inequality - taxes are going to go up, tenant friendly leaning housing council, somewhat competitive, population loss over time.

Pros - Some development going on, good apprectiation, low prices, can diversify in Kentucky/other bank of the river, good housing stock(Has some small/medium MF)

4. Indianapolis, IN

Cons - too hot/very competitive, no housing stock(mostly SFR).

Pros - high appreciation, close proximity, low prices, landlord friendly, stable taxes, population gain.

5. Jacksonville, FL

Cons - too hot/very competitive, no housing stock(mostly SFR), high insurance costs.

Pros - Great appreciation, relatively low prices,

Population gain, landlord friendly, desirable sun belt, landlord friendly, predictable taxes.

3Reply
67 views

Most Popular Reply

Gregg CohenBusiness Member
Rental Property Investor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2011 · 143 posts · 136 votes
5y

@Vasyl Levchenko - Great post.  I wish more investors did this type of due diligence when comparing markets.  I'd be happy to chime in on the Jacksonville, FL market as I've been investing here since 2006.  This year my company will be buying around 700 homes in Jacksonville (just as we've done in recent years.)  I believe this is absolutely the best time to invest in Jacksonville because of the reasons you described above along with historically low interest rates which boost up your positive cash flow.  Generally, in a growth market like Jacksonville which has appreciated 19% more than the US avg since 1991 (source: Federal Housing Finance Agency), you usually have no shot of positive cash flow.  Now, we do in Jacksonville.  Many investors have a very myopic view of what makes a great rental property investment and they only focus on cash flow.  However, your job as an investor is to produce the best risk-adjusted return on investment.  If you compare Jacksonville with Cleveland, for example, you'll see a small difference in cash flow earned but a large difference in home price appreciation over a full market cycle.  

Cleveland has a slightly better rent-to-price ratio than Jacksonville and will produce a better cash-on-cash return in year 1 from the net rental income.  However, Cleveland's average home price appreciation since 1991 is only 2.3%.  Jacksonville's average home price appreciation annually is 4.3%.  If you plan to buy and hold for a full market cycle (10-20 years), you should expect the home price appreciation rate over the cycle to be similar to the historical average because that's how market cycles work.  Holding that property in Cleveland literally would be like leaving hundreds of thousands of dollars in home price appreciation on the table versus choosing to invest in Jacksonville.

My viewpoint here on how it is important to evaluate home price appreciation is based on the idea that you are buying and holding for a full market cycle though.  If you're only in for a few years, I'd suggest not factoring in the potential home price appreciation as it is highly speculative at that point. 

As far as the cons you mentioned in Jacksonville, you just have to find the right partner in order to find inventory.  We've been buying renovations as well as building our own new construction inventory and you should be able to find the right property as well.  Also, insurance costs are pretty low actually.  Annual premiums for a new construction house will range from $400- $500 per year (around $800 per year for a renovation.)  This is one way reason we can still achieve positive cash flow even though it is a high growth market. 

Hope this helps!

Gregg Cohen, Not Your Avg Investor Show4.6237 Reviews
See this reply in the discussion

41 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Brandon SturgillBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · Columbus, OH · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    @Vasyl Levchenko Numbers on paper are numbers on paper...operating an investment property and managing people is an entirely different world. Yes...most people base their decision to invest on the "going in" analysis...and they brag about things like cash on cash...or say "I won't invest unless I get x$ return"...there is a lot behind these superficial parameters. Feel free to connect and chat more about initial analysis vs. real world practice. 

    Best of luck

    Realize Multifamily Group11 Review
    View Page
  • Remington LymanBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2017 · 6k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Tom Wagner:

    Columbus, OH all the way! Perfect combination of potential appreciation and stable cash flow.

     Yeah Columbus, Ohio is great for cash flow and appreciation!

  • Rental Property Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2021 · 24 posts · 30 votes
    5y

    @Bill Rance

    Great insider input, appreciate it Bill.

    You're basically confirmed my thoughts about those trendy markets. It looks like most of the asset classes are overheated now, got to look where no one is looking than.

  • Rental Property Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2021 · 24 posts · 30 votes
    5y

    @Brandon Sturgill

    it sounds like you've seen some investors got burned, was this in your market or somewhere else? Would you mind sharing?

  • Rental Property Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2021 · 24 posts · 30 votes
    5y

    @Gloria N Gear

    Thank you Gloria, always happy to connect!

    That tip on RV industry dependence is a great info.

    What attracts you to Fort Wayne market?

    Is there more economic diversity there?

  • Brandon SturgillBusiness Member
    Real Estate Broker · Columbus, OH · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    Not so much in our local market @Vasyl Levchenko

    It's hard to go wrong here...Columbus price appreciation is hovering around 22% annually...26% the year before...that's enough to cover the margin of error. 

    Have you ever heard the saying that goes something like "don't lose sight of the forest for the trees"...the guys that are focusing on the numbers are missing opportunity right in front of their face...they are passing up thousands in equity because their calculator is telling them the CoC return is not where they want it.

    Realize Multifamily Group11 Review
    View Page
  • Rental Property Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2021 · 24 posts · 30 votes
    5y

    @Brandon Sturgill

    I've seen appreciation beating years of cashflow, can't argue about the power it has

  • Investor · Fishers, IN · Member since 2016 · 7 posts · 3 votes
    5y

    @Brandon Sturgill  that is amazing appreciation.  That's seems unsustainable.....Indianapolis was 14.7% this year, about 5x of what is typical here.  

  • Property Manager · Griffith, IN · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 913 votes
    5y

    Regarding NW Indiana, the appreciation here, like many parts of the US, has been on fire since 2016. When I started in 2015, a 3/1 slab house was worth about $80K. That same house now is $130K and up. The midwest has been known for being slow and steady for appreciation but these last few years have been fun. Not crypto fun but pretty good. 

    As far as population decline, I see it on paper but I don't see it in reality. Every house I flip goes in days to IL buyers. I have a management company and my rentals fly off the shelf too to IL transplants. South of center lake county were there's still land is tons of new construction. Hammond and E Chicago are great about knocking down old vacant houses but I can't imagine the couple dozen they do a year is moving the needle. If anything, the population decline is in Gary which based on the last census in 2010 was 80k or 16% of the total population in Lake county. So if they lose 10% which is only 8k, that reflects on the entire county. Gary has thousands of vacant houses that the city is working towards removing for new development. Their population was over 170K back in the 60s when the steel mills employed 5X what they do now. Overall, there's tons of new business development in the area. We just got a second casino, an amazon warehouse, and there's a huge project to extend the chicago train line south to reach the new developments. We're 35-45mins to downtown chicago and it's not uncommon for people to work across the border but live here where cost of living is significantly less. 

    I'd be happy to help anyway I can if you choose to stay somewhat closer to home. 

  • Boston, MA · Member since 2021 · 9 posts · 7 votes
    5y

    @Vasyl Levchenko how did you get your information from other areas? was it speaking to other investors or do you have personal knowledge of these areas?

  • Boston, MA · Member since 2021 · 9 posts · 7 votes
    5y

    @Gregg Cohen is there a clear cut area that is considered B in Jacksonville? I hear the north side is sketchy.

  • Rental Property Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2021 · 24 posts · 30 votes
    5y

    @Adrien S.

    Thanks for adding to the conversation Adrien,

    I've read your posts on NW Indiana, they actually made me put that area on my list! Always lots of great info. That train line would definitely be a game changer.

  • Rental Property Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2021 · 24 posts · 30 votes
    5y

    @Kareem Johnson

    Mostly research on BP and other resources,

    I've noticed that same areas keep coming up in conversations and started reading on them. As for Jacksonville, I would check with locals, neighborhoods can be hard to understand from a distance.

  • Gregg CohenBusiness Member
    Rental Property Investor · Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2011 · 143 posts · 136 votes
    5y

    @Kareem Johnson - Great question about what are B neighborhoods in Jacksonville.  The truth is I usually stay away from A,B,C and D ratings because they are highly subjective in residential rental properties.  However, an easy way to judge for yourself is looking at market values in certain neighborhood.  The median home sales price in Jacksonville right now is $267,000.  B markets are going to be right around that number.  

    Keep in mind this is a very generic way to analyzing this and I'm sure many people on this forum will be able to poke holes in it.  Like many have noted in this forum, your best way to understand which neighborhoods are the best to invest in given a specific real estate market is to work with a seasoned professional in that area.

    For what it's worth, these are the zip codes in which I invest in Jacksonville: 32210, 32244, 32205, 32254, 32209, 32208, 32218, 32207, 32211.  I find the best risk-adjusted returns on investment are found in below-middle income neighborhoods where we also perform the property management because that's why you need to go for positive cash flow and above-average home price appreciation. 

    Gregg Cohen, Not Your Avg Investor Show4.6237 Reviews
  • Investor · AZ · Member since 2019 · 57 posts · 22 votes
    5y

    Indianapolis has been mentioned a handful of times in this post for a reason - strong buy/hold and cash-flowing rental property market, but you can also flip, BRRRR, deal notes, and wholesale/wholetail. Macro economics for Indy are strong as well - diverse job market, strong net migration. Perhaps most importantly for newer investors is that entry points are <$100k.

  • Rental Property Investor · South Bend, IN · Member since 2014 · 43 posts · 25 votes
    5y

    I saw someone mention South Bend, it's a great market, lots of out of state and international buyers, but not a lot of multifamily if that's what you are looking for.

Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.