Investor · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2020 · 236 posts · 247 votes
I see a lot of multifamily listings that have the price set steictly on proforma numbers. I always hear to set your offer price based on actual rent rolls, T-12, current NOI. Cap Rate, etc. However, I come across a lot of properties that have had the same owner for 20+ years and they haven't raised the rents in a decade or more with 75% occupancy.
To be more specific, I found a 16-unit property asking $1.4mil, with avg actual rents at $429/month and the proforma rents from broker say $800/month. They also have 4 vacant units, for 75% occupancy. Using current/actual numbers I find a .5 DSCR, and a 2% cap rate.
How do you price a home like this when actual performance supports a much lower offer price, but the potential is there to support the asking price? Of course the owner holds all the cards so I don't see how offering half of asking helps me acquire one of these properties. Do you pay for potential? Do you meet them in the middle?
Investor · Narragansett, RI · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
4y
@Anthony King I know it doesn't answer your question but I would be more concerned about why they have 4 vacant units. If they can get 800 why arent they full.
Rental Property Investor · RVA · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
4y
I wouldn't see it as 'the current owner holds all the cards.' You each have separate hands. They have a property they haven't taken good care of, and have delusions of grandeur about what its actual value is. You have capital and the goal of making a sound investment. Remember: You make your money when you buy, not when you sell. This is when you determine your return. Don't get too caught up in trying to force a deal to work. Stick to your numbers.
How would you possibly finance the property at their ridiculous valuation? No lender that I've worked with would give you money at a 0.5 DSCR. At least that I'm aware of, I wouldn't want such a deal anyway.
It's up to you to decide what price works for you. Determine that and stick to it. If the seller thinks they can get more, then let them keep believing that. If it's so easy to capture that potential value, then the current owner should do it themselves. You can make the case for paying a small premium for that potential upside, but they want you to pay for the whole thing. No way.
Investor · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2020 · 236 posts · 247 votes
4y
@Colleen F. I visited the property and saw all 4 vacant units and the answer given by their agent (sellers are in their 80's) is because they want to let the buyer fill the units themselves. They have owned the buildings since 1992. I'm guessing they are completely paid for and the owners just haven't had interest in pusshing rents higher. The current rents cover their expenses with a little left over according to the provided schedule E's. All 4 buildings are in excellent condition, the landscaping, the parking lot, everything really has been immaculately maintained. Like I said, they are older, have some tenants paying in the $300's and the highest being $526. My property manager who already manages 10 doors for me said he could get $895 on the vacant units in the condition they are in. If he get an average of $800-850 I like the deal, so $895 would be great.
Point being, I have verified it's potential rents, reassessed tax bill, accountednfor CapEx, Maint, vacancy, etc so the potential I can verify. What I struggle with is the asking price is on potential. Not actual performance. But to me it's worth more than a $500k asking price that the ACTUAL numbers would suggest. I just always hear on BP podcast, etc to use actual numbers in your underwriting, but never mention an instance like this.
Investor · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2020 · 236 posts · 247 votes
4y
@Taylor L. You make great points and deep down I agree with all of it. On the flip side I know I can get over the $800 proforma numbers they provided. Also, I just did my first 1031 exchange on Aug 4th, so I have that 45 day deadline lingering over my head. I submitted an LOI for $1.2mil on the property I mentioned above and the sellers tried to negotiate, but I stuck with my $1.2 offer and they eventually accepted just yesterday. You are right, I feel like I am paying for all of the potential and they are benefiting from it. But in 2, 3, or 5 years I feel like I will be glad I bought this property. That's where I struggle. This is my first attempt in the commercial space. I currently own a few handfuls of 1-4 unit properties and am ready to make the jump to larger multifamily. Maybe I'm just too eager with this one, that's why I'm seeking advice. My emotions and gut keeping pulling me in opposite directions.
Investor · Central Virginia · Member since 2020 · 393 posts · 253 votes
4y
Hi @Anthony King, Excellent questions! First, we often hear about a buy box, but do you have a rent box? This is similar to a buy box where you can measure the rents in the area you are looking to invest in.
Next, Have you ever heard of the Binder Strategy? It was on a BP podcast episode way back. The guy who developed it has a YouTube Channel called Dion Talk Financial. Look it up and see if he has a strategy that will help you raise the rents. One other thing that Dion talks about is not just relying on current rents for purchasing the property. I am sure he has a video on this too.
Finally, I know there is a product out there where you can get 50% loan from the bank, 40% owner carry 2nd, and 10%DP. I mention this but I have a question about your intentions for the property. Are you planning on keeping it long term (>10 yrs). If this is the case, this product can give you a debt structure which could lower expenses. You can negotiate the seller portion at a lower rate and have a lower overall blended rate ( 6% bank rate + 2% owner rate = 4% blended rate). Mike Zuber on his channel One Rental at a Time has several videos on this financing strategy.
Investor · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2020 · 236 posts · 247 votes
4y
@Chris Webb yes I have heard of that and I remember that episode well with Dion McNeeley. I have used that in the properties I have managed myself, but this particular building would be managed by my property manager.
Investor · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2020 · 236 posts · 247 votes
4y
@Russell Brazil that's exactly the point I was trying to make and didn't know it. Ha. Do you have any recommendations on how else I can evaluate this deal? Like I said I feel there is a middle ground between actual and potential, but any number you pick between the two is a guess unless I use some other metric I'm overlooking right now. Any advice? And thanks for all the helpful comments you provide in these forums. They've been a great help to me, and many others I'm sure.
Realtor · Dallas - Fort Worth Metroplex, TX · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 925 votes
4y
@Anthony King most if not all commercial brokers will price on proforma. This is where your relationship and negotiation skills come into play.
If a broker will not accept your offer then some other mug will buy it, because there have been lots of them in the MF arena these last few years. Many of these will come back to bite them.
But for you just move on and find one that works. A deal will never just present itself, you have to work it. As always, in my opinion.
Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
4y
I always hear t12, current NOI also on this forum/books but it seems to be BS as in real life all the deals are priced off potential ARV/rent increases. I am a broker have sole almost 40 million now and always market as what the potential is for the property and thats how people buy deals that need work. It would be a dream to buy under market buildings at the current market cap rate and just raise rents to make a ton of equity, it's never that easy.
Investor · MD FL WV · Member since 2020 · 38 posts · 21 votes
4y
I like to think of it flipping the side. You need to know how your lender underwrites the property - Do they look at proforma/t-12/t-3 etc? I would highly recommend you connect with your lender and ask him this question
Real Estate Broker · Kansas City Metro · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
4y
At the end of the day, for your 1031 exchange, it sounds like you want control and a great deal. The way you evaluate it is based on future cash flow. Typical cheaper properties dont break even in year 1 or 2, but the tax write off and tax deferral make them worth it. Look at projected cap rate on deals that need rents raised and upgrades. Find something with light value, get a rehab loan from local bank, and defer your taxes. Hint, if you don't love it you can sell in a year again to exchange. Double hint, you can refinance the property you buy to pull out cash.
Real Estate Consultant · Cleveland · Member since 2020 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
4y
Simple you buy it knowing you can raise the rents. You are not ready,,,, yet, please connect with someone doing deals,, learn then apply what you learn
Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
4y
@Anthony King
This is where experience comes into play. Best way to underwrite these deals is to understand all the costs and potential (including what it takes to get there) along with time.
Taking all of that and plugging it into a sophisticated proforma to evaluate the deal along with the risk (sensitivity analysis) to understand what the true value of the asset is.
Real Estate Consultant · Cleveland · Member since 2020 · 6k+ posts · 3k+ votes
4y
I just got a 10 unit in Cleveland, rents are only 400 each, I know they will be 700 or so when I am done. Net cap will be about 20% , I am paying all in about 350k,