MY THOUGHTS ON SILICON VALLEY BANK COLLAPSE

MY THOUGHTS ON SILICON VALLEY BANK COLLAPSE

Jason MalabuteBusiness Member
Accountant · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 902 votes

The following are my thoughts on the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and any thoughts of upcoming bailouts. As an advocate for responsible financial practices, I believe that the government should not bail out banks that collapse due to their own risky investments. Such bailouts not only create moral hazard but also set a dangerous precedent that banks can engage in reckless behavior with little or no consequences.

Depositors should not be bailed out for savings over the $250,000 FDIC limit because they should share the risk of banking with a particular institution. When depositors place all their cash in one bank, they are essentially placing all their eggs in one basket, which can be risky. Therefore, it is important for depositors to diversify their savings across multiple institutions to mitigate risk. Additionally, depositors should consider investing their money in assets like real estate, which can provide long-term returns and mitigate the risks that come with being too liquid. Ultimately, depositors should take responsibility for their financial decisions and not rely on the government to bail them out in the event of a bank failure.

When the government bails out a bank, it sends a message that the bank's risky investments were acceptable and that taxpayers should bear the cost of the bank's mistakes. This creates a moral hazard, where banks are encouraged to engage in risky behavior with the knowledge that the government will bail them out if things go wrong. This, in turn, puts taxpayers at risk and undermines the integrity of the financial system.

Moreover, when the government bails out a bank, it effectively rewards poor financial management and risk-taking. This sends the message that there are no consequences for engaging in such behavior, which can ultimately lead to a culture of complacency and a lack of accountability in the banking sector.

In addition to the moral hazard, bailing out banks can also be costly for taxpayers. The funds used to bail out a failing bank are typically drawn from the public coffers, meaning that taxpayers foot the bill.

As a real estate investor, I am aware that financial distress in the market can create great buying opportunities. An economic downturn can create great buying opportunities in commercial real estate for savvy investors. When the market is down, sellers are more flexible on price and terms, and may be more willing to negotiate seller financing or other creative financing options. Additionally, there is likely to be less competition from other buyers as money may be less accessible. This can be particularly beneficial for real estate investors who have preexisting relationships with investors who have cash, creativity, and resourcefulness, allowing them to take advantage of market opportunities that others may miss. Ultimately, an economic downturn can be a great time for investors to acquire high-quality assets at a discount and position themselves for long-term success in the real estate market. With that said, as a real estate investor I would be extra careful with what banking institution I do business with and put my reserve money in moving forward.

In conclusion, I strongly believe that banks and depositors should not be bailed out over the FDIC amount. Bailing out banks creates moral hazard, sets a dangerous precedent, and can be costly for taxpayers. As a society, we should encourage responsible financial practices and hold banks accountable for their actions, rather than rewarding them for their mistakes.

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Realtor · Longmont, CO · Member since 2021 · 577 posts · 631 votes
3y

If this was a crisis that happened because of risky investments I would agree. That being said, this is a crisis that was created because the bank chose the safest asset on earth (US treasury bonds) to put their depositors money into and the Fed kept rates low too long and then raised rates too fast, and focused on lagging indicators all the while knowing they risked collapsing the banking system. If the Fed does not step in, it is likely that there will be a rush on the banks, and these banks will not be able to liquidate assets fast enough to handle the pressure and collapse. As RE investors we like buying opportunities, but we should not like government created banking system failures. 

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Bruce WoodruffPro Member
    Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

    @Christopher Sandys Yeah, I think the Banking System is worse than flawed and probably needs a collapse. It's bloated and corrupt and doesn't serve the people it's supposed to - us. It serves and protects those in power only. Let's all pull out our money and put it under our mattresses today.....doesn't that sound kinda fun?


    And you think currency would have value if that happened? 


     Civilization will always find a currency.

  • Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

    @Christopher Sandys Yeah, I think the Banking System is worse than flawed and probably needs a collapse. It's bloated and corrupt and doesn't serve the people it's supposed to - us. It serves and protects those in power only. Let's all pull out our money and put it under our mattresses today.....doesn't that sound kinda fun?


    And you think currency would have value if that happened? 


     Civilization will always find a currency.


    A currency being the ke. NOt necessarily our FIAT currency. And your ignoring all the pain in between…..  

  • Member since 2023 · 97 posts · 60 votes
    3y

    @Bruce Woodruff I can understand how you feel that way.  Just keep in mind, you said "our money."  The folks at the Fed are laughing at you (i'm not!  But they are.):  "Ha Ha. Look at Bruce, he thinks our money is his money.  Can't he read the "Federal Reserve Note" printed on each of our bills?  Let's print 100 Trillion more and dilute him to nothing to show him who really owns the money."

    I've often been frustrated with fiat money and a Federal Reserve that carries water with its Monetary Policy control for a failed Fiscal Policy.  A long, long time ago I was an Air Force survival instructor, and those skills (if they even still exist in me) will be needed with a collapse of the monetary system.  We're all going back to dark ages at that point.  

    Without a fractional system, and its inherent velocity of money, we might very well be on economic parity and quality of life with a modern day Phillipines.  For all its ills, it actually has created the greatest and most well-dispersed wealth ever.  

    But I am concerned about an eventual day of reckoning with irresponsible monetary policy (the aforementioned Monetary bailout of Fiscal). 

  • Investor · Providence, RI · Member since 2016 · 142 posts · 40 votes
    3y

    @Jason Malabute

    Having a system where sometimes you're bailed out over the FDIC limit creates an insiders and outsiders system, much like Twitter was before Elon Musk and all other social media is today.

    We are moving every single month away from equal opportunity in this country. The ironic thing is we’re doing it mostly in the name of “equality” and sometimes just through the people that claim equality but don’t practice it.

    Get a boat load of cash and own everything you can. Not for the financials. For the freedom. If you don’t need their handouts you own your life.

    Personal Agency Matters.

  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Michael Hutchinson:
    Quote from @John Carbone:

    Nobody is talking about the countless masses of banks who DIDN'T screw up, and are just fine. No, all that matters is a handout for the F'd ones because God forbid there be any negative consequences ever. THIS IS INSANE! 


    IF any one of the big banks - Citi, Wells, JPMC, or BOA fail. You and I both know it won’t end there. And NO the system is not designed for that. 

    Any one of them would likely collapse the us financial system. So it’s not that simple and you shouldn’t be acting like it is. 

     


    What's funny is if Citi,wells,JPM falls then the middle-eastern shayk or Chinese mogul would come to bid and rescue the institution, but the institution would not allow it because the politicians can't bash them anymore in CNN lol....it's just yesterday news some Dubai princess would rescue SVB lol 

    So SVB is a good buy because it actually has the assets to cover this. It wa sa timing issue. 

    That said SVB had something like 220billion in assets. JPMC has:
    $2,690.905B

    Not comparable and nobody is saving it except maybe the Federal govt. but probably not even them.  If they go under it rill ripple across the globe. And that’s sort of the problem the ripple will be tsunami. Not the dinky little wave we saw this past week.
     


     GOOD! 

    Look, your missing the entire accountability item. 

    If the whole system is such a frail little whisper than it NEEDS to come falling down, if that's it's gravity than it needs to hurry up and happen. A slow bleed is no better. It NEEDS to reap it's standing so something BETTER, stronger can take it's place. 

    But if you keep propping up a rotten structure, nothing new can grow in it's place. 

    Banking was NOT always like this. Take mortgages and '08', the result was a far better, stronger mortgage system so strong that this epic inflation run has had zero effect on those mortgage holders in most part because the system is far healthier today than in '07'. 

    Your entire argument is your so scared of the cleansing cycle, that no, let's just keep propping up this broken, corrupt broken thing because of fear for having any time of pain and change. 

    It NEEDS to come down so we can get back to health. This is a dangerous day and if continue down this path, in years to come this time will be looked back upon as when Pandoras Box was opened. 

    For somebody so smart on certain things it’s a blind answer just because you don’t like the context/morality (or whatever word you want to use) of it. I could care less about right or wrong here. I also think people are overplaying the executives corruption in some cases (either way punish the executive with jail time and lifetime bans). I care about what keeps the economy functioning. Absolutely any bank can crumble on a bank run. They don’t have the cash to survive it.

    Furthermore you would absolutely destroy property values in the US if the model changed like you are describing. We would be back to $200k median home prices in a heart beat. Credit markets and liquidity would dry up and the house of cards comes tumbling down. 

    There is no telling what the other side of depression would bring. And thats what it would be a Great Depression - total reset.
     


     I get where your coming from, but it's a place of emotional response, fear, not logic and mathematical reasoning. 

    A run on a bank is not a normal or ordinary thing, and most any bank could either (a) service a run or (b) go under from a run, what determines is the size of the run, and underlying operation of the bank. This is a NON-argument item because it ALSO stands true that anyone could run an automobile into a crowded sidewalk at any time, correct? 

    What matters here is WHY this run on the bank occurred, and it was with specific reasons. FDIC has existing policies for such, what's happening here is a PERVERSION of the rules to make exception for specific groups.

    Again, RULES EXIST FOR EXACTLY THIS, and the politicians are running in demanding OTHER ACTIONS be done, with OUR $, with the Gov. powers given to them NOT for doing this because there has been no vote for such, no rule for such, this is SUBVERTING the rules. 

    And NO, following the rules would NOT bring an end to everything, the sky will not fall, LIFE WILL GO ON. 

    The argument your using here is the exact same argument that has empowered Dictators and Tyrants for generations. The fear of the cleansing cycle, emphasis on "CYCLE", so instead just turn away and let the powers that be run a 2 rule system, rules for the elite and rules for everyone else. 

    I actually know people personally affected by Leyman bro's collapse, personally, and I am here saying this. And guess what, so are they. Because with those losses it changed them. They took far greater care in how they placed there capital going forward. yes, a pinful lesson learned BUT a lesson learned none the less. 

    Society WITHOUT accountability is NOT freedom. 

    Again, the price to this action is far worse than the natural actions that the economy would have if left to follow it's design.     Your fear of the sky falling is not logical nor justified, it's a talking point being feed to you by that political machine defending it's self-interest, NOT the mass populous interest. 

    There is THOUSANDS of small banks who could and would win considerably if corporate interest was allowed to reap it's fate. But no, we are ignoring that and regurgitating talking points that we should all believe that life hinges on corporate health. 

    We the people do NOT need corporate interests. We don't. SMALL BUSINESS could, and would, in-fill ANY "void" left. 

    This would NOT bring down every bank, that's just a totally emotional response ignoring all mathematics. 

    Just wait, I am telling you here, as the days go by you WILL see this is a complete BS scam of an action, politically motivated to protect political allies not the American people, not the American Economy. 

    Which by the way, how F'd is the Fed now. How F'd is the American middle class. Now it's pressed that rate increases hurts the elite too much so the general populous just has to suffer the ravages of inflation and shut-up and suck it down because MIDDLE CLASS DOESNT HAVE LOBBIEST. 

    Step away from emotion, do the math, work it through, there is 0 risk to banking system as a whole, only a risk to big banking. Again, there enemy #1 is small business. Diversification of deposits would be a GREAT win for small business, for small local banks who are the healthiest alternative. They would gain tons of deposits from DECENTRALIZATION of depositors. 

    As for liquidity, don't make me laugh. There is SOOOoooo  much liquidity out there it's a non-issue, the centralization of that liquidity is the issue, as seen in this exact instance. LET IT BURN and the $ DECENTRALIZE. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Stephen Torti:

    @Jason Malabute

    Having a system where sometimes you're bailed out over the FDIC limit creates an insiders and outsiders system, much like Twitter was before Elon Musk and all other social media is today.

    We are moving every single month away from equal opportunity in this country. The ironic thing is we’re doing it mostly in the name of “equality” and sometimes just through the people that claim equality but don’t practice it.

    Get a boat load of cash and own everything you can. Not for the financials. For the freedom. If you don’t need their handouts you own your life.

    Personal Agency Matters.


     EXACTLY! 

    Freedom does not come free. 

  • Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
    3y
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Michael Hutchinson:
    Quote from @John Carbone:

    Nobody is talking about the countless masses of banks who DIDN'T screw up, and are just fine. No, all that matters is a handout for the F'd ones because God forbid there be any negative consequences ever. THIS IS INSANE! 


    IF any one of the big banks - Citi, Wells, JPMC, or BOA fail. You and I both know it won’t end there. And NO the system is not designed for that. 

    Any one of them would likely collapse the us financial system. So it’s not that simple and you shouldn’t be acting like it is. 

     


    What's funny is if Citi,wells,JPM falls then the middle-eastern shayk or Chinese mogul would come to bid and rescue the institution, but the institution would not allow it because the politicians can't bash them anymore in CNN lol....it's just yesterday news some Dubai princess would rescue SVB lol 

    So SVB is a good buy because it actually has the assets to cover this. It wa sa timing issue. 

    That said SVB had something like 220billion in assets. JPMC has:
    $2,690.905B

    Not comparable and nobody is saving it except maybe the Federal govt. but probably not even them.  If they go under it rill ripple across the globe. And that’s sort of the problem the ripple will be tsunami. Not the dinky little wave we saw this past week.
     


     GOOD! 

    Look, your missing the entire accountability item. 

    If the whole system is such a frail little whisper than it NEEDS to come falling down, if that's it's gravity than it needs to hurry up and happen. A slow bleed is no better. It NEEDS to reap it's standing so something BETTER, stronger can take it's place. 

    But if you keep propping up a rotten structure, nothing new can grow in it's place. 

    Banking was NOT always like this. Take mortgages and '08', the result was a far better, stronger mortgage system so strong that this epic inflation run has had zero effect on those mortgage holders in most part because the system is far healthier today than in '07'. 

    Your entire argument is your so scared of the cleansing cycle, that no, let's just keep propping up this broken, corrupt broken thing because of fear for having any time of pain and change. 

    It NEEDS to come down so we can get back to health. This is a dangerous day and if continue down this path, in years to come this time will be looked back upon as when Pandoras Box was opened. 

    For somebody so smart on certain things it’s a blind answer just because you don’t like the context/morality (or whatever word you want to use) of it. I could care less about right or wrong here. I also think people are overplaying the executives corruption in some cases (either way punish the executive with jail time and lifetime bans). I care about what keeps the economy functioning. Absolutely any bank can crumble on a bank run. They don’t have the cash to survive it.

    Furthermore you would absolutely destroy property values in the US if the model changed like you are describing. We would be back to $200k median home prices in a heart beat. Credit markets and liquidity would dry up and the house of cards comes tumbling down. 

    There is no telling what the other side of depression would bring. And thats what it would be a Great Depression - total reset.
     


     I get where your coming from, but it's a place of emotional response, fear, not logic and mathematical reasoning. 

    A run on a bank is not a normal or ordinary thing, and most any bank could either (a) service a run or (b) go under from a run, what determines is the size of the run, and underlying operation of the bank. This is a NON-argument item because it ALSO stands true that anyone could run an automobile into a crowded sidewalk at any time, correct? 

    What matters here is WHY this run on the bank occurred, and it was with specific reasons. FDIC has existing policies for such, what's happening here is a PERVERSION of the rules to make exception for specific groups.

    Again, RULES EXIST FOR EXACTLY THIS, and the politicians are running in demanding OTHER ACTIONS be done, with OUR $, with the Gov. powers given to them NOT for doing this because there has been no vote for such, no rule for such, this is SUBVERTING the rules. 

    And NO, following the rules would NOT bring an end to everything, the sky will not fall, LIFE WILL GO ON. 

    The argument your using here is the exact same argument that has empowered Dictators and Tyrants for generations. The fear of the cleansing cycle, emphasis on "CYCLE", so instead just turn away and let the powers that be run a 2 rule system, rules for the elite and rules for everyone else. 

    I actually know people personally affected by Leyman bro's collapse, personally, and I am here saying this. And guess what, so are they. Because with those losses it changed them. They took far greater care in how they placed there capital going forward. yes, a pinful lesson learned BUT a lesson learned none the less. 

    Society WITHOUT accountability is NOT freedom. 

    Again, the price to this action is far worse than the natural actions that the economy would have if left to follow it's design.     Your fear of the sky falling is not logical nor justified, it's a talking point being feed to you by that political machine defending it's self-interest, NOT the mass populous interest. 

    There is THOUSANDS of small banks who could and would win considerably if corporate interest was allowed to reap it's fate. But no, we are ignoring that and regurgitating talking points that we should all believe that life hinges on corporate health. 

    We the people do NOT need corporate interests. We don't. SMALL BUSINESS could, and would, in-fill ANY "void" left. 

    This would NOT bring down every bank, that's just a totally emotional response ignoring all mathematics. 

    Just wait, I am telling you here, as the days go by you WILL see this is a complete BS scam of an action, politically motivated to protect political allies not the American people, not the American Economy. 

    Which by the way, how F'd is the Fed now. How F'd is the American middle class. Now it's pressed that rate increases hurts the elite too much so the general populous just has to suffer the ravages of inflation and shut-up and suck it down because MIDDLE CLASS DOESNT HAVE LOBBIEST. 

    Step away from emotion, do the math, work it through, there is 0 risk to banking system as a whole, only a risk to big banking. Again, there enemy #1 is small business. Diversification of deposits would be a GREAT win for small business, for small local banks who are the healthiest alternative. They would gain tons of deposits from DECENTRALIZATION of depositors. 

    As for liquidity, don't make me laugh. There is SOOOoooo  much liquidity out there it's a non-issue, the centralization of that liquidity is the issue, as seen in this exact instance. LET IT BURN and the $ DECENTRALIZE. 

     Those banks couldn’t service the scale of debt and volume of people you are describing. Not for several years. I agree with you that the big banks need ot be broken up. But not through a crash. The system will freeze and credit will break. Hell just the volume of deposits coming in from the regional banks has forced the big banks to change policy. Doing that in reverse with far bigger scale problems - it won’t work. not to mention the wealth lost in the intervening period.

    I agree with you a lot of regionals would love to step up. Working closely with them I have an idea of their ability to scale and it doesn’t match even if just one of the big banks were to crash let alone all of them.

    Now if you want to create policy to dismantle the big banks? I’ll jump on board right now. But I’m not for crashing the system and rebooting. You are essentially saying light a wildfire with no idea what’s in the brush or if the cans there are full of gasoline. It could cause mass destruction.

    Break-up and regulate? Sure all for it. While we are at it maybe we can do it with the telecom providers also.


  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

    @Christopher Sandys Yeah, I think the Banking System is worse than flawed and probably needs a collapse. It's bloated and corrupt and doesn't serve the people it's supposed to - us. It serves and protects those in power only. Let's all pull out our money and put it under our mattresses today.....doesn't that sound kinda fun?


    And you think currency would have value if that happened? 


     Civilization will always find a currency.


     Currency has existed a lot longer than the U.S. has existed. Even in the U.S. currency has changed many times. 

    What form the prevailing currency of a nation takes, will always change, adjust, move. 

    USD collapses, there will be the Amero, DGC, whatever. It means little to nothing to me, if prevailing currency becomes Chickens, ok, I'll just start collecting rents in chickens. 

  • Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
    3y
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

    @Christopher Sandys Yeah, I think the Banking System is worse than flawed and probably needs a collapse. It's bloated and corrupt and doesn't serve the people it's supposed to - us. It serves and protects those in power only. Let's all pull out our money and put it under our mattresses today.....doesn't that sound kinda fun?


    And you think currency would have value if that happened? 


     Civilization will always find a currency.


     Currency has existed a lot longer than the U.S. has existed. Even in the U.S. currency has changed many times. 

    What form the prevailing currency of a nation takes, will always change, adjust, move. 

    USD collapses, there will be the Amero, DGC, whatever. It means little to nothing to me, if prevailing currency becomes Chickens, ok, I'll just start collecting rents in chickens. 

    Currency collapse and change has worked out so well in other countries. Shrug it’s apparent to me this is more politics (and i don’t mean political) so it is what it is. I’d be fine for breaking up the big big banks that are too big to fail. I have no interest in dealing with the rebuilding the whole US financial system. Nor the fun of finding out what happens to all my properties when it does happen - nor retirement, no brokerage accounts and even the cash on hand I have. 


    I plan to retire young. Don’t need that mess.
     

  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Michael Hutchinson:
    Quote from @John Carbone:

    Nobody is talking about the countless masses of banks who DIDN'T screw up, and are just fine. No, all that matters is a handout for the F'd ones because God forbid there be any negative consequences ever. THIS IS INSANE! 


    IF any one of the big banks - Citi, Wells, JPMC, or BOA fail. You and I both know it won’t end there. And NO the system is not designed for that. 

    Any one of them would likely collapse the us financial system. So it’s not that simple and you shouldn’t be acting like it is. 

     


    What's funny is if Citi,wells,JPM falls then the middle-eastern shayk or Chinese mogul would come to bid and rescue the institution, but the institution would not allow it because the politicians can't bash them anymore in CNN lol....it's just yesterday news some Dubai princess would rescue SVB lol 

    So SVB is a good buy because it actually has the assets to cover this. It wa sa timing issue. 

    That said SVB had something like 220billion in assets. JPMC has:
    $2,690.905B

    Not comparable and nobody is saving it except maybe the Federal govt. but probably not even them.  If they go under it rill ripple across the globe. And that’s sort of the problem the ripple will be tsunami. Not the dinky little wave we saw this past week.
     


     GOOD! 

    Look, your missing the entire accountability item. 

    If the whole system is such a frail little whisper than it NEEDS to come falling down, if that's it's gravity than it needs to hurry up and happen. A slow bleed is no better. It NEEDS to reap it's standing so something BETTER, stronger can take it's place. 

    But if you keep propping up a rotten structure, nothing new can grow in it's place. 

    Banking was NOT always like this. Take mortgages and '08', the result was a far better, stronger mortgage system so strong that this epic inflation run has had zero effect on those mortgage holders in most part because the system is far healthier today than in '07'. 

    Your entire argument is your so scared of the cleansing cycle, that no, let's just keep propping up this broken, corrupt broken thing because of fear for having any time of pain and change. 

    It NEEDS to come down so we can get back to health. This is a dangerous day and if continue down this path, in years to come this time will be looked back upon as when Pandoras Box was opened. 

    For somebody so smart on certain things it’s a blind answer just because you don’t like the context/morality (or whatever word you want to use) of it. I could care less about right or wrong here. I also think people are overplaying the executives corruption in some cases (either way punish the executive with jail time and lifetime bans). I care about what keeps the economy functioning. Absolutely any bank can crumble on a bank run. They don’t have the cash to survive it.

    Furthermore you would absolutely destroy property values in the US if the model changed like you are describing. We would be back to $200k median home prices in a heart beat. Credit markets and liquidity would dry up and the house of cards comes tumbling down. 

    There is no telling what the other side of depression would bring. And thats what it would be a Great Depression - total reset.
     


     I get where your coming from, but it's a place of emotional response, fear, not logic and mathematical reasoning. 

    A run on a bank is not a normal or ordinary thing, and most any bank could either (a) service a run or (b) go under from a run, what determines is the size of the run, and underlying operation of the bank. This is a NON-argument item because it ALSO stands true that anyone could run an automobile into a crowded sidewalk at any time, correct? 

    What matters here is WHY this run on the bank occurred, and it was with specific reasons. FDIC has existing policies for such, what's happening here is a PERVERSION of the rules to make exception for specific groups.

    Again, RULES EXIST FOR EXACTLY THIS, and the politicians are running in demanding OTHER ACTIONS be done, with OUR $, with the Gov. powers given to them NOT for doing this because there has been no vote for such, no rule for such, this is SUBVERTING the rules. 

    And NO, following the rules would NOT bring an end to everything, the sky will not fall, LIFE WILL GO ON. 

    The argument your using here is the exact same argument that has empowered Dictators and Tyrants for generations. The fear of the cleansing cycle, emphasis on "CYCLE", so instead just turn away and let the powers that be run a 2 rule system, rules for the elite and rules for everyone else. 

    I actually know people personally affected by Leyman bro's collapse, personally, and I am here saying this. And guess what, so are they. Because with those losses it changed them. They took far greater care in how they placed there capital going forward. yes, a pinful lesson learned BUT a lesson learned none the less. 

    Society WITHOUT accountability is NOT freedom. 

    Again, the price to this action is far worse than the natural actions that the economy would have if left to follow it's design.     Your fear of the sky falling is not logical nor justified, it's a talking point being feed to you by that political machine defending it's self-interest, NOT the mass populous interest. 

    There is THOUSANDS of small banks who could and would win considerably if corporate interest was allowed to reap it's fate. But no, we are ignoring that and regurgitating talking points that we should all believe that life hinges on corporate health. 

    We the people do NOT need corporate interests. We don't. SMALL BUSINESS could, and would, in-fill ANY "void" left. 

    This would NOT bring down every bank, that's just a totally emotional response ignoring all mathematics. 

    Just wait, I am telling you here, as the days go by you WILL see this is a complete BS scam of an action, politically motivated to protect political allies not the American people, not the American Economy. 

    Which by the way, how F'd is the Fed now. How F'd is the American middle class. Now it's pressed that rate increases hurts the elite too much so the general populous just has to suffer the ravages of inflation and shut-up and suck it down because MIDDLE CLASS DOESNT HAVE LOBBIEST. 

    Step away from emotion, do the math, work it through, there is 0 risk to banking system as a whole, only a risk to big banking. Again, there enemy #1 is small business. Diversification of deposits would be a GREAT win for small business, for small local banks who are the healthiest alternative. They would gain tons of deposits from DECENTRALIZATION of depositors. 

    As for liquidity, don't make me laugh. There is SOOOoooo  much liquidity out there it's a non-issue, the centralization of that liquidity is the issue, as seen in this exact instance. LET IT BURN and the $ DECENTRALIZE. 

     Those banks couldn’t service the scale of debt and volume of people you are describing. Not for several years. I agree with you that the big banks need ot be broken up. But not through a crash. The system will freeze and credit will break. Hell just the volume of deposits coming in from the regional banks has forced the big banks to change policy. Doing that in reverse with far bigger scale problems - it won’t work. not to mention the wealth lost in the intervening period.

    I agree with you a lot of regionals would love to step up. Working closely with them I have an idea of their ability to scale and it doesn’t match even if just one of the big banks were to crash let alone all of them.

    Now if you want to create policy to dismantle the big banks? I’ll jump on board right now. But I’m not for crashing the system and rebooting. You are essentially saying light a wildfire with no idea what’s in the brush or if the cans there are full of gasoline. It could cause mass destruction.

    Break-up and regulate? Sure all for it. While we are at it maybe we can do it with the telecom providers also.



     I think we are actually in majority part in alignment with each other in thought and intent, I think our divergence is simply in the "how". 

    I advocate a "tear it off" approach for pulling the "band-aid", where your advocating a slow, pick at it, if it bleeds too much stop and wait etc kind of approach. Again, I get it. 

    Here is the rub, with your approach the necessary change won't come, because it doesnt have to. It facilitates more kick-the-can actions, and the prevailing political powers are masters of can-kicking. 

    Yes, I say BURN IT DOWN. yes, at risk of what's in the brush, yes at risk of a "fire cyclone", YES, BURN-BABY-BURN!. Because here is the thing, the quicker it burns down, the hotter the flam the more complete the burn, and the quicker and more clear the field. The better the "fertilizer". The greater the need to more rapid the cure.     The economic system, by nature, has it's own kind of immunity system. The greater the 'wound" the greater the anti-bodies. 

    Look, in early '09' it was a lot of chaos. By later '09' there was a ton of solutions in process emerging. By end of '10' there was a plethora, and by '12' there was countless large scale operations running that completely sorted the entire housing supply glut. None was Gov. mandated, it was all private business, emerging in response, myself included as one of those. 

    Our biggest difference is I have FAITH in small business, and the average "Joe/Jane" that would engage in light speed to any fallout disaster, forge BETTER entities, and come to rescue the market demand for whatever. 

    It is simply a fact, Main Street does NOT need the "Walmarts" of anything. There is this amnesia that has come over the U.S. populous thinking we "need" these big entities, we DONT. And if/when they burn to the ground, small business will respond in HOURS. It's small business who will THRIVE. main Street does NOT need them, they-need-us!     But there syth powers are strong, minds clouded, people have forgotten. 

    LET IT BURN! 

    Calamity will be measured in days and weeks. Recovery measured in months. And it would be the GREATEST small business BULL RUN of 50 years! 

    Yes, I see the colossal fire that it would be, our difference, I see what's on the other side, I see the "heaven" and God send to small business and middle-class it would bring. I see it's worth it. Large corporate interests would be set back 20, 50 years and GOOD! Innovation comes from Small business. Strong communities come from small business. Strong economies come from small business. 

    LET IT BURN! Let's CRUSH the can, incinerate it, and get back to Main Street. It's time WS serves MS. 

    Without the cleanse, the cancer will never leave of it's own free will. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

    @Christopher Sandys Yeah, I think the Banking System is worse than flawed and probably needs a collapse. It's bloated and corrupt and doesn't serve the people it's supposed to - us. It serves and protects those in power only. Let's all pull out our money and put it under our mattresses today.....doesn't that sound kinda fun?


    And you think currency would have value if that happened? 


     Civilization will always find a currency.


     Currency has existed a lot longer than the U.S. has existed. Even in the U.S. currency has changed many times. 

    What form the prevailing currency of a nation takes, will always change, adjust, move. 

    USD collapses, there will be the Amero, DGC, whatever. It means little to nothing to me, if prevailing currency becomes Chickens, ok, I'll just start collecting rents in chickens. 

    Currency collapse and change has worked out so well in other countries. Shrug it’s apparent to me this is more politics (and i don’t mean political) so it is what it is. I’d be fine for breaking up the big big banks that are too big to fail. I have no interest in dealing with the rebuilding the whole US financial system. Nor the fun of finding out what happens to all my properties when it does happen - nor retirement, no brokerage accounts and even the cash on hand I have. 


    I plan to retire young. Don’t need that mess.
     


     Estonia would say yes, it has worked out very well. East Germany, Poland, Lithuania....... 

    The collapse of the USSR was painful, but one would be hard pressed to find anyone in those now free nations who say they miss "the good ole days". 

    Currency change WILL happen, it's only a question of when, and how. In terms of the world, the U.S. is a toddler. And act's the role in many ways. 

    There is no risk to those holding assets such as Real Estate, this has stood true over change of currencies too many to count, change of political systems, governments, wars too numerous to count, and so on.    This is the fundamental law of TRUE wealth vs perceived wealth. 

    Owning a stock, that's perceptual. There is no actual value there, it's an idea, a concept of a thing, and it only holds value as long as that concept holds value. A piece of this earth and the structure upon it, the use it provides, food, water, shelter, these fundamentals of life are of factual value, only the monetization action changes. 

    Once upon a time not so long ago a person with a sack full of tulips would declare he is the richest man in the world....

    Ask yourself, is your wealth TRUE wealth, or a perception of wealth? What one holds in the mind, changes as easily as any thought. What one holds in the hand, will be regardless of what one thinks. 

  • Member since 2022 · 485 posts · 216 votes
    3y

    @James Hamling Those countries you named - didn’t recover in months. We differ in that I think it would take the better part of 3-5 years to recover and 10 to really grow. Otherwise yes we see the same issue with the big banks.

  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:

    @James Hamling Those countries you named - didn’t recover in months. We differ in that I think it would take the better part of 3-5 years to recover and 10 to really grow. Otherwise yes we see the same issue with the big banks.


     100%, it was not a short simple road for those now free nations, but I assure you those people say "worth it". 

    Here, in this instance, I believe your significantly underscoring the power of small business. Remember, it has an ability to scale, move, innovate at light speed. And by economic laws and facts, small business is the best most rapid injection into an economy, thus creating feed-back loops. Small business keeps $ circulating in a localized economy, at a rate more than 10X of corporate entities.  

    This means a "super-charged" recovery if it is small business centric. And for growth, it would be all but instantaneous. Small business employs a far larger body count per function than corporate entities. And again, keeping that capital moving in the localized economy and recovery time is directly corelated by the velocity of $ circulating inside and economy, and the re-circulation rate. Which small business is "king" of such. 

    Let's look at the STR segment, what has that done within the hospitality segment? How rapidly has STR scaled? How much innovation? Name anything in "big" hospitality that can compare. No, STR operators have brought more scale and innovation in 5yrs than "big" hospitality has in 20.

    I believe your over-feeling the fear and under-scoring the hope. 

    And even if it were double your worst case thoughts, worth-it. 

  • Member since 2020 · 65 posts · 9 votes
    3y

    Why is SVB the "dangerous precedent that can engage in reckless behavior with little or no consequences?"  What about the fat cat "bro" investor that made the call(s), text(s), post(s), etc. that caused $42Billion in deposits to leave the bank in two days?  Do not scapegoat SVB or the US government for this mess, scapegoat the "bro" capitalist that got all his money and friend's money out and took down a bank in two days!  What the hell?  This same "bro" capitalist would also like to see rumors float around cyber space that this is the beginning of a national bank take-over (JC help us) because he also has a hand in national politicians that want to take down the government, Crypto, and would like to see the FED stop raising rates to keep his negative cash flow tech enterprises afloat, not to mention his cyber spy company.  While I would like to get back to 5% mortgages for cash flow positive rentals, lets stop the real steal ... our national financial stability and if he can do it democracy.  Just "Google" the SVB news on Friday and then read the "bros" bio!  Yuck!

  • Chris SeveneyBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Investor · VA · Member since 2015 · 21k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    3y

    I did not read all 140 posts but here are some thoughts

    1. If you run a small business, $250k is chump change and while there are opportunities to increase fdic limit - depositors should not be punished

    2. A bank bailout and insuring depositors are two very different things

    An good analogy today was if you flew on a plane and it crashed and you were paralyzed for life / is it your fault? You knew the risk a plane could crash? The answer of course is no.

    Govt policy with an arbitrary number for insurance is just that arbitrary and in this instance the contagion and damage if they did not insure the deposits would have caused a huge impact on the banking industry

    7e investments53 Reviews
  • Rental Property Investor · RVA · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y

    @Chris Seveney 100% agreed, a bank bailout and insuring depositors aren't the same thing. I think it's reasonable to discuss sticking with the $250k FDIC limit or not. Regulators are trying desperately to avoid a contagion effect, so insuring depositors above the limit is almost certainly intended to avoid additional bank runs.

    The broader point is that this happened because of interest rate risks not being properly mitigated. What other parts of the financial system are not adequately hedged?

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    3y

    For anybody who suggests that companies should simply spread out their money across multiple banks to ensure that they have only $250,000 per bank, I'm going to guess that they've never run even a larger mom and pop sized business.

    A small, 30-person company can easily have bi-weekly payroll that exceeds $250,000.  And I've yet to find a payroll company that will withdraw payroll across multiple accounts.

    How big do you think payroll is for a typical 100 person company? Thousand person company? Now guess what payroll is for a company like Microsoft or Google?

    And that's just payroll. There are hundreds of other scenarios where it's simply infeasible to not keep large amounts of cash in a single banking entity.

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @J Scott:

    For anybody who suggests that companies should simply spread out their money across multiple banks to ensure that they have only $250,000 per bank, I'm going to guess that they've never run even a larger mom and pop sized business.

    A small, 30-person company can easily have bi-weekly payroll that exceeds $250,000.  And I've yet to find a payroll company that will withdraw payroll across multiple accounts.

    How big do you think payroll is for a typical 100 person company? Thousand person company? Now guess what payroll is for a company like Microsoft or Google?

    And that's just payroll. There are hundreds of other scenarios where it's simply infeasible to not keep large amounts of cash in a single banking entity.


    basically you just said that FDIC/SEC/Fed actually never think about that scenario AKA they don't care LOL

    As powell increases the rate he doesn't care the consequences personally because nobody questions his authority. He just needs to convince the Pres. that what he does his right, but it's right not is in a different debacle.

    Aka the government is working in reactionary mode and more like in authoritarian ruling.

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Sonja Sevcik:

    Why is SVB the "dangerous precedent that can engage in reckless behavior with little or no consequences?"  What about the fat cat "bro" investor that made the call(s), text(s), post(s), etc. that caused $42Billion in deposits to leave the bank in two days?  Do not scapegoat SVB or the US government for this mess, scapegoat the "bro" capitalist that got all his money and friend's money out and took down a bank in two days!  What the hell?  This same "bro" capitalist would also like to see rumors float around cyber space that this is the beginning of a national bank take-over (JC help us) because he also has a hand in national politicians that want to take down the government, Crypto, and would like to see the FED stop raising rates to keep his negative cash flow tech enterprises afloat, not to mention his cyber spy company.  While I would like to get back to 5% mortgages for cash flow positive rentals, lets stop the real steal ... our national financial stability and if he can do it democracy.  Just "Google" the SVB news on Friday and then read the "bros" bio!  Yuck!

     I'll put it simply, all those Yale, Brown,Stanford graduates bro capitalist are just bunch of FOMO haha even you don't need to be smart to be "bro capitalist".

    It is the inventor that's smart, and those "bro capitalists" are just forcing everyone around him to invest in the inventor, and withdraw at the same too, that's the name of the game.

    That's why the freaking stupid about these bro capitalists are that the number of unicorn startup in 2022 triples in 2021 alone compare to 2022, while decreased by a third in 2023. How could tech invention is related to the interest rate if you think about it lol

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @James Hamling:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
    Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
    Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

    Currency change WILL happen, it's only a question of when, and how. In terms of the world, the U.S. is a toddler. And act's the role in many ways. 

    There is no risk to those holding assets such as Real Estate, this has stood true over change of currencies too many to count, change of political systems, governments, wars too numerous to count, and so on.    This is the fundamental law of TRUE wealth vs perceived wealth. 

    Owning a stock, that's perceptual. There is no actual value there, it's an idea, a concept of a thing, and it only holds value as long as that concept holds value. A piece of this earth and the structure upon it, the use it provides, food, water, shelter, these fundamentals of life are of factual value, only the monetization action changes. 

    wow, very true, I used to think holding USD currency and gov. bonds had higher reward/risk compared to a direct real estate portfolio; but after seeing what happened to SVB and to what happened in Asia when bank runs also occur in the 80s and 90s ; having direct Real Estate with a mortgage is way saver than even MBS or gov. notes.

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

    As powell increases the rate he doesn't care the consequences personally because nobody questions his authority. He just needs to convince the Pres. that what he does his right, but it's right not is in a different debacle.

    Aka the government is working in reactionary mode and more like in authoritarian ruling.

    The Fed (not just Powell) increasing rates is irrelevant to this conversation.  Every move by the government -- including the Fed -- is likely to have unintended, and unpredictable, consequences. 

    You don't make policy around the edge-cases.  We could argue that any decision that the government ever makes is going to hurt someone or some thing, in some way.  But, that doesn't make it bad policy or legislation.  Tell me what you think is the absolute best piece of legislation on the planet, and I'll tell you how it hurt somebody in a way that wasn't good.  Doesn't make it bad legislation.

    What happened with SVB wasn't a balance sheet issue.  It was a liquidity issue.  Even with the bond losses, SVB had a balance sheet that would have covered all deposits long-term; and just like any business with liquidity issues, there were several options available (debt, additional equity infusion, etc) that would have allowed the bank to continue operating just fine.

    The issue was the run on the bank.  There isn't a single bank in the country that can handle 25% of their depositors pulling out in one day.

    I'm not saying that SVB did everything right -- they didn't.  But, what they did -- putting too many assets into their HTM portfolio and not marking them to market -- was no different than what every other bank in this country does. 

    Bond losses are a sucky situation, but had SVB had more diversity of depositors, and had their deposits not dropped considerably over the past year, they would have let their HTM holdings mature, not take any losses, and we wouldn't be having this conversation.  They made some sub-optimal decisions, which cost them.  

    But, I don't see how any of this is the Fed's fault for doing what the Fed is chartered to do.
     

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @James Hamling:

    Owning a stock, that's perceptual. There is no actual value there, it's an idea, a concept of a thing, and it only holds value as long as that concept holds value.


    Huh?  Stock is equity in a physical company.  Are you saying that companies have "no actual value" and are just a "concept?" 

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @J Scott:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

    As powell increases the rate he doesn't care the consequences personally because nobody questions his authority. He just needs to convince the Pres. that what he does his right, but it's right not is in a different debacle.

    Aka the government is working in reactionary mode and more like in authoritarian ruling.

    The Fed (not just Powell) increasing rates is irrelevant to this conversation.  Every move by the government -- including the Fed -- is likely to unintended, and unpredictable, consequences. 

    You don't make policy around the edge-cases.  We could argue that any decision that the government ever makes is going to hurt someone or some thing, in some way.  But, that doesn't make it bad policy or legislation.

    What happened with SVB wasn't a balance sheet issue.  It was a liquidity issue.  Even with the bond losses, SVB had a balance sheet that would have covered all deposits long-term; and just like any business with liquidity issues, there were several options available (debt, additional equity infusion, etc) that would have allowed the bank to continue operating just fine.

    The issue was the run on the bank.  There isn't a single bank in the country that can handle 25% of their depositors pulling out in one day.

    In financial history, the root cause of bank runs in many countries is sudden changes in gov. policy so one can't disconnect between those two. 

    When gov changes rate, private institution as public debt's baggage holder can't sustain its operation due to realized/unrealized losses.

    The connection between gov. policy and bank runs occurred in any country to this is nothing new.

    Today we blame SVB, tomorrow we will talk Ally, FRB, Credit Suisse , the difference would be the circumstances.
  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @J Scott:
    Quote from @James Hamling:

    Owning a stock, that's perceptual. There is no actual value there, it's an idea, a concept of a thing, and it only holds value as long as that concept holds value.


    Huh?  Stock is equity in a physical company.  Are you saying that companies have "no actual value" and are just a "concept?" 


     James is right, stock company valuation is an arbitrary number only for that given time. When Tesla stock is $1,000 or $100 ,its opex/capex doesnt change although forward earnings may be different.

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 18k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

    The connection between gov. policy and bank runs occurred in any country to this is nothing new.

    Today we blame SVB, tomorrow we will talk Ally, FRB, Credit Suisse , the difference would be the circumstances.

    I'm not arguing that.  I'm simply saying that it's irrelevant.

    The total long-term bond holdings across all banks in the US is between $3-6T.  Assuming all those bonds were purchased back when rates were 0%, and assuming they were all sold today, the loss would be between $500M and $1.5T.

    While that's a lot of money, it's literally less than half of annual GDP.  The purpose of the Fed is to protect the economy at large, which is worth $25T.

    The Fed shouldn't be making policy decisions based on the potential for an absolute worst-case scenario of a trillion dollars when their charter is to protect the $25T.

    Just my $.02...

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