TO BUILD OR NOT TO BUILD

TO BUILD OR NOT TO BUILD

Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2009 · 196 posts · 32 votes

I had a house I originally purchased to flip a year ago that subsequently burned to a crisp in a fire and now I am left with a big lot with a pool. The insurance proceeds will be covering up to most of the policy limit but that may not cover the cost to complete a new build with the materials necessary to get the most profit on the back end.

Time wise, due to all the bureaucratic delays in our city and pulling permits, architectural plans, etc. I am looking at over a year total turn time having my company's original cash tied up. Up to this point, time has been on my side with the market continuing to appreciate, despite the delays.

Here's the bottom line:

The biggest concern is the downtime (~4 mos.) and costs just to pull all the permits, etc. In addition, the fees can mount to tens of thousands of dollars before I even break ground. This is where cost overruns come as a concern in that I can be into the property for way more than I budgeted. This isn't including having to pay for security 24/7 (which insurance will not cover) to keep the vagrants from burning the building down again. The insurance company does not care whether I rebuild the property or walk away with the claim proceeds.

Furthermore, I have no working history with the GC who wrote the estimates and with whom I contracted to do the work a year back. The GC was referred to me from the adjuster. I am therefore leery about whether the GC will come in on time and budget as I am beginning to hear complaints from other customers of the GC at this point which I didn't know from the outset.

Some options I am contemplating:

1. New build: projected net profit of approx. $225K assuming no more than a 10% contingency above the insurance settlement proceeds and no more than 12-15 mos. to complete and get our CO. This also assumes the market remains at least steady into next year (I gave a 10% new build premium).

2. Sell the lot, collect the insurance settlement: projected net profit of approx. $140K - in the next 30 days. I could then later transfer the architectural plans/permits to another lot in a location in which I could command a higher sale price, avoiding the security issues (vagrants, vandals, etc.) that were associated with the current lot location. In the meantime, I can roll the insurance proceeds into other flips and profit enough to potentially equal or exceed the new build profit in the same time frame it takes to build a new house.

3. Structure a profit-share/JV deal with another developer/investor: I owner-finance the lot 100% (with the city-approved plans as a turnkey project for a premium price); investor partner builds the house 100% at his/her expense and we split the net sale proceeds on an agreed-upon number. 

Any insight and tips would be greatly appreciated.

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  • Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
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    Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
    4y
    Quote from @Tim Silvers:

    I anticipate the market is peaking and won't last much longer. Inventory is low, prices have spiked for two years running, and even the market pros are anticipating something changing real soon. If you try a new build and it takes you 12-15 months to complete, you could very well be looking at a completely different market. On top of that, you're in a City that sees tremendous growth, but that also sees tremendous price drops when the market corrects.


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  • Investor · Northern VA · Member since 2020 · 124 posts · 87 votes
    4y

    I'd vote for option 2, the bird in the hand. Anytime you can net healthy profit and remove unknowns and liability that's a win in my book.

  • Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2009 · 196 posts · 32 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Chris Mills:

    I'd vote for option 2, the bird in the hand. Anytime you can net healthy profit and remove unknowns and liability that's a win in my book.


    Thanks, kinda was leaning in that direction before I posted.
  • Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2009 · 196 posts · 32 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Nathan Gesner:
    Quote from @Tim Silvers:

    I anticipate the market is peaking and won't last much longer. Inventory is low, prices have spiked for two years running, and even the market pros are anticipating something changing real soon. If you try a new build and it takes you 12-15 months to complete, you could very well be looking at a completely different market. On top of that, you're in a City that sees tremendous growth, but that also sees tremendous price drops when the market corrects.


    Our market volatility, increases in materials and labor, etc. definitely fuels uncertainty, even moreso with a long-term project like this one. Nonetheless, someone who has the staying power and a captive construction crew and/or does this as an owner-builder, will make out pretty well on a new build.
  • Henderson, NV · Member since 2022 · 6 posts · 1 vote
    4y

    Hey Tim, 

    I also vote option #2 and agree with @Tim Silvers. As a local lender, our company has seen almost a dead-stop in mortgage applications with the rising rates, and they are projected to continue to increase. This will look even worse in the very near future. 

    I live in the foothills of Henderson, by Lake Las Vegas, and befriended a GC who's been building homes for his investor in my area in the recent years. He stands-up these identical 3000sf, stick-built homes in 6 months or less. I think your estimation of 12-15 months is very conservative. He uses a local company http://ultryxdesigngroup.com/ as the designer and they pull all permits and deal with the city. This might be something worth looking into. 

    Hope that helps. 

    Can I ask whereabouts your property is located?

    Thanks,

    Haris 

  • Boise, ID · Member since 2018 · 203 posts · 188 votes
    4y

    @Tim Silvers I would throw out option #1 immediately.  The great thing about a new build is that you get to chose your location.  There is a reason the three most important things in real estate are:

    1. Location

    2. Location

    3. Location

    If you are worried about vagrants/vandals during your build, how do you think prospective buyers will view your new home?  I would advise you to sell the lot.  If it makes financial sense to do a new build in a better location, then go for it.  Worst case, sell the lot, and eat the permit/architecture fees.  Don't go build a 400k spec home that you don't really want to build because you spent 10-20k on permits and architecture.  That's what I call "throwing good money after bad".

  • Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2009 · 196 posts · 32 votes
    4y
    Quote from @Haris Becaj:

    Hey Tim, 

    I also vote option #2 and agree with @Tim Silvers. As a local lender, our company has seen almost a dead-stop in mortgage applications with the rising rates, and they are projected to continue to increase. This will look even worse in the very near future. 

    I live in the foothills of Henderson, by Lake Las Vegas, and befriended a GC who's been building homes for his investor in my area in the recent years. He stands-up these identical 3000sf, stick-built homes in 6 months or less. I think your estimation of 12-15 months is very conservative. He uses a local company http://ultryxdesigngroup.com/ as the designer and they pull all permits and deal with the city. This might be something worth looking into. 

    Hope that helps. 

    Can I ask whereabouts your property is located?

    Thanks,

    Haris 

    The lot is located in a subdivision off W. Sahara and Arville. SFR build dates range in the low to mid 60s. Prices have been steadily increasing over the last several months.
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