HELP! Tell me why this won't work...

HELP! Tell me why this won't work...

Investor · Richardson, TX · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 3 votes

Recently, a friend and fellow real estate investor approached me with an opportunity. He wants to build 3 to 5 1,000 sqft homes in small towns that are within a 30 minute commute to a mid-size city in Texas. Through a local builder, who is a personal friend, we can purchase the land and construct the homes for approximately $65,000 each. 

Based on my analysis, I believe that the new homes would appraise for at least $95,000 each. These towns predominantly consist of renters -- around 65%. Additionally, the availability of new, quality rentals in these towns is almost non-existent. Based on my analysis, I believe these homes would rent for at least $950/month.

Assuming a 75% LTV on a cash-out re-fi, we would be all in for $750. At a 5.25% APR on a 30 year note, we would cash flow $2,300-$2,900 in the first 5 years. The total ROI would be 472%-555% in the same period. Of course, we could also take 10 year or 15 year note and decrease cash flow in the short term for a higher return after 10 or 15 years.

The only limitations I see are the ability to scale and lack of appreciation. Each town could probably only sustain 3 to 5 homes. Additionally, the homes would likely never see any real appreciation. Nevertheless, if we built 50 homes in 5 years (5 homes in approximately 10 towns), we could have $145,000 in cash flow a year.

Does anyone see any glaring problems that I'm not considering? Why or how would this not work??

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Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
8y
Originally posted by @Michael Keller:

@Brian Garrett I should have clarified that $750 is the all in per property. $95,000 appraised value x .75 = $71,250. With approximately $5,000 in closing costs that is $66,250 from the re-fi. That leaves us with $750 in each property.

The numbers still aren't adding up. If you are $65k "all in" on the land purchase and the construction and you net $66,250 after you refinance then you should still be positive $1,250 per property. Can you bundle them together and refinance them all at once as a portfolio so you only pay closing costs one time instead of on 5 separate refinances?

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  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    8y

    "Assuming a 75% LTV on a cash-out re-fi, we would be all in for $750."

    How are you coming up with this?  5 properties at $65k is $325k.

    75% LTV based on a $95k ARV for all 5 properties is $356k.

    You should have no money into the deal and actually be pocketing money based on these numbers.

    Unless you're talking about $750 all in meaning your monthly expenses.

  • Investor · Richardson, TX · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 3 votes
    8y

    @Brian Garrett I should have clarified that $750 is the all in per property. $95,000 appraised value x .75 = $71,250. With approximately $5,000 in closing costs that is $66,250 from the re-fi. That leaves us with $750 in each property.

  • Real Estate Investor · Palm Beach County, FL · Member since 2017 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Michael Keller:

    @Brian Garrett I should have clarified that $750 is the all in per property. $95,000 appraised value x .75 = $71,250. With approximately $5,000 in closing costs that is $66,250 from the re-fi. That leaves us with $750 in each property.

    The numbers still aren't adding up. If you are $65k "all in" on the land purchase and the construction and you net $66,250 after you refinance then you should still be positive $1,250 per property. Can you bundle them together and refinance them all at once as a portfolio so you only pay closing costs one time instead of on 5 separate refinances?

  • Investor · Richardson, TX · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 3 votes
    8y

    You're correct. I had also figured $2,000 closing costs for the land purchase. So it's $65k, plus $2k close on the land, minus $66,250, which leaves us with $750. I like the idea of bundling them. That would certainly increase the profitability further.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    8y

    on the surface if your looking for non appreciating assets scattered around the state and willing to do all this for that small of cash flow then sure.

    now the questions are have you accounted for everything.

    1.  cost of capital to build or are you guys doing this all cash.

    2. property tax's while you build I assume they will be low since its just land until its reappraised.

    3. do you know about what your tax's will be once done.. you know TExas and their sky high taxs maybe in these little burgs it wont be so bad.

    Other wise this is really as you laid it out the ultimate in BRRRl

    Although new construction can have its risk's .. as you probably know.  does 65k become 80k when your done.. :)

    also I would want to know that the take out is there and approved.. lender may only do % of all in cost not ARV.. so get that nailed down and approved.. other wise you may have to season a bit.

  • Walnut Creek, CA · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    8y

    I'd be concerned if my friend could handle the entire scope of building all the houses... and "in case" they couldn't what's my back up plan.

  • Investor · Richardson, TX · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 3 votes
    8y

    @Jay Hinrichs

    We would be doing the deals all cash.

    I've accounted for taxes post-construction. During construction they would relatively insignificant as you mentioned.

    I agree on the lender pre-approval.

    Thanks for your input!

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    8y

    So Mark in that case sounds like a solid plan if you think borrowing all that money and taking on those risk for 10k a month is worth it.. :)  remember you are max leveraged and with commercial loans are doing PG I am sure and .. not only that Texas is dual action state if you default your going to get personally sued.. that would be my main concern.. is that much debt 3 million worth 10k a month spread between partners.. for me NO WAY.. I can do that selling one house a month with no risk  LOL

    but I am not in the landlording business so I have different money channels.

  • Investor · Richardson, TX · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 3 votes
    8y

    @Matt K. Valid point. The builder is not a fly-by-night contractor, but there is absolutely some degree of risk in relying on only his price point. Thanks!

  • Walnut Creek, CA · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Michael Keller:

    @Matt K. Valid point. The builder is not a fly-by-night contractor, but there is absolutely some degree of risk in relying on only his price point. Thanks!

     I didn't mean to imply he was fly by night.... but let's say for example (and this is generic) he does few smaller remodels here/there and maybe 1 house... then you scale up to 2, then 3, now 5? He was great at 1/2, OK at 3, and now things are starting to deteriorate and 4/5 off the table.

    I only say this because I've experienced this in a different industry, but the contractor was fantastic at 1/2 projects concurrently..... we overloaded them w/ 3, then 4, then like 6 and it was a TOTAL DISASTER. We were able to salvage the professional relationship, but it was clear that 2 was the max otherwise the process just didn't work.

  • Dr · Danville, VA - Virginia · Member since 2016 · 42 posts · 56 votes
    8y

    @Michael Keller seems to me the builder is the wildcard.  I didn't see what you are paying for the lots but at $65k per home that's only $65/sq. ft.  That's pretty tight for a contractor to make any margin.Checked out the builders reputation in the communities he has built in?  Has he committed to build as many as you want at that price? I think he may lose interest after building a couple at that price point. If they will be valued at $95k why would he not just build them himself and pocket the $30k? Maybe bring the contractor in as the third partner. Let him leave his profit or at least 50% of his profit in as ownership, let him grow a small portfolio for himself, and give him a reason to keep building for the two of you.

    Cheers,

  • Johnson City, TN · Member since 2017 · 209 posts · 367 votes
    8y

    Unless you have some secret source for cheap materials and free labor I don't see how you can do this for 65k. What is the cost of the lots? Free?

  • Investor · Princeton, TX · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8y

    There are small towns in Texas where I would consider this a great investment.  There are small towns in Texas where I would consider it a really bad investment.

    The build price seems low to me.

    I would love to hear about utilities and the associated permits and impact fees.

    $125 per square foot is closer to the going rates.

  • Developer · New Orleans, LA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 898 votes
    8y

    @Michael Keller I agree with others, that $65/ft2 is way, way low.  If that price is possible, i doubt the rents would that high, as the finish must be so low that it will turn off most renters other than Section 8 renters.

  • Investor · Richardson, TX · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 3 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Don Gouge:

    Unless you have some secret source for cheap materials and free labor I don't see how you can do this for 65k. What is the cost of the lots? Free?

    The land is very inexpensive. $4,000 would buy enough land for 3 houses. We would have to have it re-platted, which would add some expense.

  • Investor · Richardson, TX · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 3 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Mike Wood:

    @Michael Keller I agree with others, that $65/ft2 is way, way low.  If that price is possible, i doubt the rents would that high, as the finish must be so low that it will turn off most renters other than Section 8 renters.

    I agree the price does seem low. However, I'm trying to determine why the deal wouldn't make sense assuming the price is accurate. That being said, I have very good reason to believe the price is accurate as I know the builder and have seen the finished product. The finish out, while not high quality, would be superior to just about everything available in these markets.

  • Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2013 · 226 posts · 115 votes
    8y

    .@Michael Kellerinteresting post here as we are doing something similar but different. I have a few questions..

    1. Do you know this builder and how did he come to the price of 65k

    2. Is the 65k and “all in” price to build or just vertical construction? Are they 2/1 or 3/2?

    3. How is the contractor making his money in this deal? Does the 65k include is overhead and profit?

    4. Did you say replatt? This might completely kill the deal if the zoning doesn’t allow or the city makes you do crazy things. Do the lots have Utilites or do you have to bring them in? Road frontage/access? Ect, etc

    There are many many things to look at when you get into deals like this; you are basically becoming the developer. Or you are just the “money guy” and have to trust the builder and his knowledge and capabilities 100%. 

    The builder is probably thinking he can build it at $50/sqft his cost of labor and material times 5 houses which comes out to 75k. At the best best best case after he counts all his trips to Home Depot and all the unknowns in construction he will come out to $60/sqft and probably closer to $65/ sqft. He will make 25k at best before overhead for 8mnths of work and think he actually made money because he was able to make payroll and keep the lights on.

  • Mike ReynoldsPro Member
    construction · Nacogdoches, TX · Member since 2011 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Michael Keller:

    Recently, a friend and fellow real estate investor approached me with an opportunity. He wants to build 3 to 5 1,000 sqft homes in small towns that are within a 30 minute commute to a mid-size city in Texas. Through a local builder, who is a personal friend, we can purchase the land and construct the homes for approximately $65,000 each. 

    Based on my analysis, I believe that the new homes would appraise for at least $95,000 each. These towns predominantly consist of renters -- around 65%. Additionally, the availability of new, quality rentals in these towns is almost non-existent. Based on my analysis, I believe these homes would rent for at least $950/month.

    Assuming a 75% LTV on a cash-out re-fi, we would be all in for $750. At a 5.25% APR on a 30 year note, we would cash flow $2,300-$2,900 in the first 5 years. The total ROI would be 472%-555% in the same period. Of course, we could also take 10 year or 15 year note and decrease cash flow in the short term for a higher return after 10 or 15 years.

    The only limitations I see are the ability to scale and lack of appreciation. Each town could probably only sustain 3 to 5 homes. Additionally, the homes would likely never see any real appreciation. Nevertheless, if we built 50 homes in 5 years (5 homes in approximately 10 towns), we could have $145,000 in cash flow a year.

    Does anyone see any glaring problems that I'm not considering? Why or how would this not work??

    Are any of these towns near me? If so, I can maybe be of help on that rent figure and best locations. PM me if so. 

  • Investor · Princeton, TX · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8y

    @Michael Keller   Do you have exact numbers yet on the utilities including permits, impact fees, installation?

    How far is it to a gas station?

    How far is it to a grocery store?

  • Contractor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8y
    Kevin Martin What payroll? What light? He lives on his truck and his 16 y.o son that will help him build does too. Michael Keller All the concerns voiced out here is a lender concern, if you are hitting road blocks in the financial section, these might be the reasons why. I couldn’t even build a detached garage for $50/sf. Soft construction costs, utility taps, drawings (re-platting included), etc part of the 50k construction cost, is unheard of. We get it that you are trying to verify the scenario only, but shouldn’t you cover all scenarios before you verify a transaction and cover all the behinds and pitfalls? Let’s say you’re mid building, builder finds out he’s going to lose and bails out, what is your backup? What’s the next builder bid?
  • Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2013 · 226 posts · 115 votes
    8y

    @Manolo D. ouch!..... They don’t need live in their trucks. They can move from house to house as they are building. Free living expenses, and get paid as you go. Brilliant! 

  • Contractor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    8y

    @Kevin Martin At that price? They can't afford to pay for anything, they need to sell scrap 2x4's to get some food on the table.

  • Investor · Richardson, TX · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 3 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Kevin Martin:

    .@Michael Kellerinteresting post here as we are doing something similar but different. I have a few questions..

    1. Do you know this builder and how did he come to the price of 65k

    2. Is the 65k and “all in” price to build or just vertical construction? Are they 2/1 or 3/2?

    3. How is the contractor making his money in this deal? Does the 65k include is overhead and profit?

    4. Did you say replatt? This might completely kill the deal if the zoning doesn’t allow or the city makes you do crazy things. Do the lots have Utilites or do you have to bring them in? Road frontage/access? Ect, etc

    There are many many things to look at when you get into deals like this; you are basically becoming the developer. Or you are just the “money guy” and have to trust the builder and his knowledge and capabilities 100%. 

    The builder is probably thinking he can build it at $50/sqft his cost of labor and material times 5 houses which comes out to 75k. At the best best best case after he counts all his trips to Home Depot and all the unknowns in construction he will come out to $60/sqft and probably closer to $65/ sqft. He will make 25k at best before overhead for 8mnths of work and think he actually made money because he was able to make payroll and keep the lights on.

    1. He came to the price of 65k after having built this same house multiple times.

    2. 65k is all in price.

    3. I have no idea how the contractor allocates his overhead and profit. I do know that 65k is everything we owe him to deliver the finished product.

    4. There are utilities and road access in place to the first potential set of properties.

  • Investor · Richardson, TX · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 3 votes
    8y
    Originally posted by @Manolo D.:

    Kevin Martin What payroll? What light? He lives on his truck and his 16 y.o son that will help him build does too.
    Michael Keller All the concerns voiced out here is a lender concern, if you are hitting road blocks in the financial section, these might be the reasons why. I couldn’t even build a detached garage for $50/sf. Soft construction costs, utility taps, drawings (re-platting included), etc part of the 50k construction cost, is unheard of. We get it that you are trying to verify the scenario only, but shouldn’t you cover all scenarios before you verify a transaction and cover all the behinds and pitfalls? Let’s say you’re mid building, builder finds out he’s going to lose and bails out, what is your backup? What’s the next builder bid?

    I'm not sure I fully understand your response. A lender would not be involved until the house is built and we cash out re-fi. We have cash on hand to build a few of these at a time. Again, I understand that $65/sqft is inexpensive, but I'd be willing to wager construction costs are significantly less expensive in rural Texas as compared to LA. I do, however, appreciate your question about the builder backing out. That's the type of thoughts that I'm looking for -- potential problems with the proposed project. That would certainly be a risk associated with the project. That being said, as long as we were able to secure a builder to finish the job at 95/sqft, we would theoretically break even.

  • Jacksonville, FL · Member since 2013 · 226 posts · 115 votes
    8y

    @Manolo D. & @Michael Keller  The $65k/per s.f. (total square feet including unconditioned/non-heated areas) is very close to a true cost of construction for only Labor & Material in my area and might be a little high depending on the city, lot, and finishes. Yes, I have the numbers to prove it for those that are skeptical. Obviously this will be different across the country depending a fair amount of variables but this is what it costs in our area. This does not include profit, overhead, or anything else not directly related to the build. 

    Here is the problem....most builders don't really know what it actually costs them to build. Yes, there are some great builders out there that know how to run a business and not just swing a hammer but using the whole cost/s.f. number should only be a guideline and not something to base your final numbers on. This is true for both investors and contractors. 

    In my opinion the costs need to be broken into two categories on every single new construction project: Vertical Construction and Horizontal Construction. If you are building the same house over and over then vertical costs should stay relatively the same with a few small variances. The horizontal costs (development) are the costs that can really get up there if you don't know what you are doing and can vary in thousands of $$$ from site to site. 

    If this builder has built this same house already and knows his "true" costs then great do a couple houses with him and see how it goes. My concern is that he starts to look at the numbers (before, during, or after) and realizes he isn't really making any money for all the work involved and jumps ship leaving you holding the bag. 

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