Cap Rate Is Not Your Return

Cap Rate Is Not Your Return

Brady MullenPro Member
Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes

Cap rate is a common and important measurement in real estate investing, but it seems I see it misused more often than not.

Cap rate is an income measurement only. It is a measurement of the annual net operating income (NOI) produced by an asset, relative to that asset's value. Annual NOI/Asset Value. That might sound simple, but it's so often confused with return.

NOI is the revenue minus operating expenses. These expenses include taxes, insurance, HOA, and even maintenance expenses (often missing in cap rate calculations on listings, by the way, so verify!) It is also key to note that debt service (mortgage payment) is not an operating expense, and there's good reason for that.

So, if a duplex receives $60,000/yr in rent, has $10,000 in operating expenses, or $50,000 in NOI (revenue minus operating expenses), and it is worth $1M, then it has a cap rate of 5.0%.

This is true whether you purchased it with cash or with a 75% loan from the bank because debt payments are not an operating expense. They are an acquisition expense.

If you're buying an asset with a 5.0% cap rate, that is not your return. Your return would be the cap rate plus any appreciation.  But not quite...

Your revenue (rents) and your expenses are also likely going to rise over time, so this has to be taken into consideration.

Lastly, this all goes nuts when you introduce a loan/leverage. You didn't exactly buy that property for $1M. You paid $250k, but now, much (or all) of your new investment's NOI must go to cover the mortgage payment.

This is usually when we talk about positive and negative cash flow. We want all the NOI to cover even the debt payment (both principal and interest), which it often does. This is downright remarkable, by the way.

This is harder to do when interest rates are higher, but it can be done by putting more down or investing in higher income markets, or getting creative in other ways.

When people confuse cap rate with return, they say to themselves, "Why would I invest in real estate to get a 5% return when I could invest in something much safer and with much less involvement and get 5%?"

That's a great question! You wouldn't.

However, cap rate is not your return. If you find a property with a 5% cap rate, and you assume 4% appreciation on the asset (averaged over time), and you borrow 75% of the purchase price at an 8% rate (I'm using that to show it can still make sense), your compounding annualized rate of return is closer to 11% over the next 5 years.

And if it appreciates at an average of 5% over the next 5 years, your annualized return jumps to 14% (the loan causes this anomaly where additional appreciation of just 1% will have that effect, which is why it is aptly called leverage).

What's even more outrageous is that your tax-equivalent rate of return is going to be another few percentages higher (depending on your circumstances) because real estate is generally a very tax-friendly investment.

Of course, you won't hear this from most financial advisors.

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Greg ScottPro Member
Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y

Great post.

I would add that on single family, duplexes, tris and quads, Cap Rate is arguably irrelevant. 

Those properties are all priced based on Comparative Market Analysis (aka CMA or comps). Because value is disconnected from Cap Rate in these cases, you can find a deal that you buy at a low Cap Rate, but with a price way below comps, so have a massive return. Conversely, I could find one with a high Cap Rate but I'm over-paying so my returns are lower. So, while it may be interesting for conversation purposes, on small properties, Cap Rate is about as useful as the human appendix.

As you pointed out, on commercial properties, including apartments, are valued based on the income approach. NOI and Cap Rate are critical to establishing value.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y

    I would encourage everyone in 1-4 unit SFR to throw out cap-rate completely, and consider only 2 items:

    NOI, to understand the operational health.

    Time weight on multiplier of capital invested. What do I mean by this. If buy let's say a single unit SFR, and total capital outlay is $50k, at what time is that capital returned a 1X of investment, 1.5X, 2X etc.

    Because let's say your looking at 2 properties, and struggling to measure which to go with. But when look in this lens, property (A) has a 2X return at 5.5yr and property (B) has a 2X return at 7years.     What's the difference? 1.5 years. TIME is the most valuable resource we have, because we are working on LEVERAGE, and with that one in portfolio growth phase is all about COMPOUNDING RETURNS. Time is a HUGE deal, MASSIVE deal really when working to compound anything.     So TIME is actually the single most important factor. 

    At 2X a person is now actionable to pyramid that property into 2, and double the reward potential going forward. So TIME for doing such directly, and significantly, translates into big differences in wealth creation. 

    Commercial, totally different ball-game. Residential too commercial is football too baseball. Almost similar, but completely different. 

  • Henry ClarkPro Member
    Developer · Member since 2020 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y

    Who gave you the cap rate?


    Let’s say it’s 7%.   I can make it 9% or 5% if I know you plan to sell coming up.  All legal.  All proper accounting.  
    .   
    The investor needs to validate every line item.  
    .    

  • Investor · Central Virginia · Member since 2020 · 393 posts · 253 votes
    3y

    This is true, it is great for the comparison of commercial properties. I recently talked with a young person who asked if my real estate finance courses helped in my personal investing. I told her "Absolutely not!" These courses are for analysts who work at CBRE, not for general investors. If someone is new, generally, cash on cash return is the metric that should be used. Anything else has little effect on short to mid-term results. Also, some markets are much different and appreciation is the play. 

  • Brady MullenPro Member
    OP
    Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Chris Webb:

    This is true, it is great for the comparison of commercial properties. I recently talked with a young person who asked if my real estate finance courses helped in my personal investing. I told her "Absolutely not!" These courses are for analysts who work at CBRE, not for general investors. If someone is new, generally, cash on cash return is the metric that should be used. Anything else has little effect on short to mid-term results. Also, some markets are much different and appreciation is the play. 

    Thanks, Chris, for responding. I know that in commercial RE, cal rate is used often and for something specific. In res investing, I think it has a role, too. Different but useful to compare the NOI of your property as a percentage of the value.

    Do you not find cap rate useful in res investing? If not, why not? If I’m comparing NOI between two properties that are different values, cap rate is a good way to compare the net income these two properties create. 

    This is a legitimate question, as I have very little comm experience.

    Cheers!
  • Brady MullenPro Member
    OP
    Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Henry Clark:

    Who gave you the cap rate?


    Let’s say it’s 7%.   I can make it 9% or 5% if I know you plan to sell coming up.  All legal.  All proper accounting.  
    .   
    The investor needs to validate every line item.  
    .    

    I totally agree. I always run my own NOI figures because I don’t trust cap rates from listing agents. Also, I work in the res space, where a large portion of professionals don’t really understand cap rate anyway.
  • Rental Property Investor · Miami · Member since 2022 · 247 posts · 75 votes
    3y

    Amazing post, 

    But to all new people this is the point you neet to get. We have and Multifamily mastermind group very easy, is to chat learn and share. We get all this new investors(like we were at one point) and if they read this, my opinion they will not get it. They will understand the concept but you need to be investing, buying selling deals, go through them and then this numbers they talk to you... 

    I was one of those realtors that did a nice excel sheet and because my buyer was cash I will put CAP rate not ROI.

    Today is simple Cash on Cash, CAP Rate and IRR.

    Bradly Mullen@ please put a post on IRR so we get a discussion like this one.

    We invest in Value add Multifamily in South East Florida  buy and hold 8 buildings  and buy and sle 6 the last 12 months. And still I get people saying there are no deals in Miami Dade or Broward. 

    We are doing them with great IRR 60%-80% in 15 months. Positive COC after ARV. And redi to refi cash out and buy an other one.

    Luis MFM

  • Developer · Boulder, CO · Member since 2018 · 530 posts · 365 votes
    2y

    @Brady Mullen

    A cap rate is your return if you buy the NOI and don't leverage it.

  • Member since 2023 · 1 post · 1 vote
    2y
    Quote from @Barry Ruby:

    @Brady Mullen

    A cap rate is your return if you buy the NOI and don't leverage it.

    Thanks for sharing!

    A change I’d make is that your cap rate is the same as your cash on cash if you’re not using leverage.

    However, cap rate and CoC are still not your overall return because it doesn’t include appreciation, which is a meaningful part of your annual return.

    Sometimes people say you shouldn’t expect appreciation, but I do expect appreciation, and I think it’s reasonable to do so.

    I hope this comes across in the spirit that it was written - a friendly exploration of a fun and interesting topic!

    Cheers!
  • Developer · Boulder, CO · Member since 2018 · 530 posts · 365 votes
    2y

    @Brady Mullen

    Great clarification!

  • Rental Property Investor · Miami, FL · Member since 2022 · 10 posts · 5 votes
    2y

    @Brady Mullen

    Great post, very informative. Especially helpful for a rookie such as myself

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