Cap Rate Is Not Your Return

Cap Rate Is Not Your Return

Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes

Cap rate is a common and important measurement in real estate investing, but it seems I see it misused more often than not.

Cap rate is an income measurement only. It is a measurement of the annual net operating income (NOI) produced by an asset, relative to that asset's value. Annual NOI/Asset Value. That might sound simple, but it's so often confused with return.

NOI is the revenue minus operating expenses. These expenses include taxes, insurance, HOA, and even maintenance expenses (often missing in cap rate calculations on listings, by the way, so verify!) It is also key to note that debt service (mortgage payment) is not an operating expense, and there's good reason for that.

So, if a duplex receives $60,000/yr in rent, has $10,000 in operating expenses, or $50,000 in NOI (revenue minus operating expenses), and it is worth $1M, then it has a cap rate of 5.0%.

This is true whether you purchased it with cash or with a 75% loan from the bank because debt payments are not an operating expense. They are an acquisition expense.

If you're buying an asset with a 5.0% cap rate, that is not your return. Your return would be the cap rate plus any appreciation.  But not quite...

Your revenue (rents) and your expenses are also likely going to rise over time, so this has to be taken into consideration.

Lastly, this all goes nuts when you introduce a loan/leverage. You didn't exactly buy that property for $1M. You paid $250k, but now, much (or all) of your new investment's NOI must go to cover the mortgage payment.

This is usually when we talk about positive and negative cash flow. We want all the NOI to cover even the debt payment (both principal and interest), which it often does. This is downright remarkable, by the way.

This is harder to do when interest rates are higher, but it can be done by putting more down or investing in higher income markets, or getting creative in other ways.

When people confuse cap rate with return, they say to themselves, "Why would I invest in real estate to get a 5% return when I could invest in something much safer and with much less involvement and get 5%?"

That's a great question! You wouldn't.

However, cap rate is not your return. If you find a property with a 5% cap rate, and you assume 4% appreciation on the asset (averaged over time), and you borrow 75% of the purchase price at an 8% rate (I'm using that to show it can still make sense), your compounding annualized rate of return is closer to 11% over the next 5 years.

And if it appreciates at an average of 5% over the next 5 years, your annualized return jumps to 14% (the loan causes this anomaly where additional appreciation of just 1% will have that effect, which is why it is aptly called leverage).

What's even more outrageous is that your tax-equivalent rate of return is going to be another few percentages higher (depending on your circumstances) because real estate is generally a very tax-friendly investment.

Of course, you won't hear this from most financial advisors.

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Greg ScottPro Member
Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes
3y

Great post.

I would add that on single family, duplexes, tris and quads, Cap Rate is arguably irrelevant. 

Those properties are all priced based on Comparative Market Analysis (aka CMA or comps). Because value is disconnected from Cap Rate in these cases, you can find a deal that you buy at a low Cap Rate, but with a price way below comps, so have a massive return. Conversely, I could find one with a high Cap Rate but I'm over-paying so my returns are lower. So, while it may be interesting for conversation purposes, on small properties, Cap Rate is about as useful as the human appendix.

As you pointed out, on commercial properties, including apartments, are valued based on the income approach. NOI and Cap Rate are critical to establishing value.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Greg ScottPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y

    Great post.

    I would add that on single family, duplexes, tris and quads, Cap Rate is arguably irrelevant. 

    Those properties are all priced based on Comparative Market Analysis (aka CMA or comps). Because value is disconnected from Cap Rate in these cases, you can find a deal that you buy at a low Cap Rate, but with a price way below comps, so have a massive return. Conversely, I could find one with a high Cap Rate but I'm over-paying so my returns are lower. So, while it may be interesting for conversation purposes, on small properties, Cap Rate is about as useful as the human appendix.

    As you pointed out, on commercial properties, including apartments, are valued based on the income approach. NOI and Cap Rate are critical to establishing value.

  • Investor · CO · Member since 2016 · 757 posts · 1k+ votes
    3y

    Solid post!

    @Greg Scott, I agree the cap rate is irrelevant for single to quads. I see a lot of my first time investor client hung up on cap rates rather then metrics that match their strategy.

    I would add, if one must use the cap rate, that the exit cap rate is more important. 

    As always one metric does not tell the full story, it a start, but a deal must be evaluated in its whole over time which the IRR is one of the helpful figures to consider.

  • Realtor · Dallas - Fort Worth Metroplex, TX · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 925 votes
    3y

    @Brady Mullen and when you mention the loan and financing, you didn’t mention the rate cap, which today is an outrageous expense that is sucking most, if not all the profit out of deals that have been done in the last couple of years. the bridge loans that are coming to maturity are the ones hit hardest.

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes
    3y

    @Greg Scott, great point!  It's kind of this funny thing with some investors.  They seem to cling to cap rate irrationally.  It's one of those things I feel like I have to acknowledge because their perceptions are their reality (like the rest of us, I suppose).  Thanks!

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes
    3y

    @Julien J., I completely agree that early investors get hung up on cap rates and that a more comprehensive analysis over time is so much more helpful.  Thanks!

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Lucia Rushton:

    @Brady Mullen and when you mention the loan and financing, you didn’t mention the rate cap, which today is an outrageous expense that is sucking most, if not all the profit out of deals that have been done in the last couple of years. the bridge loans that are coming to maturity are the ones hit hardest.


     Can you expound?  I'm not clear on this.

  • Realtor · Dallas - Fort Worth Metroplex, TX · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 925 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Brady Mullen:
    Quote from @Lucia Rushton:

    @Brady Mullen and when you mention the loan and financing, you didn’t mention the rate cap, which today is an outrageous expense that is sucking most, if not all the profit out of deals that have been done in the last couple of years. the bridge loans that are coming to maturity are the ones hit hardest.


     Can you expound?  I'm not clear on this.

    An interest rate cap is a limit on how high an interest rate can rise on variable rate debt. Interest rate caps are commonly used in variable-rate mortgages and specifically adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loans.

    Interest rate caps can have an overall limit on the interest for the loan and also be structured to limit incremental increases in the rate of a loan. They provide a ceiling for maximum interest rate costs.

    HOWEVER, it will cost you. And the price has significantly increased this past year. We know a very seasoned Syndicator who had a $90K Rate Cap; this year the lender quoted the same Rate Cap at over $1M. Ouch.

    Borrowers are stuck, they have no choice. And this increased expense was not factored into their underwriting.

    More information below plus my personal opinion included.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/capstructure.asp

  • Rental Property Investor · Boston, Massachusetts (MA) · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    @Brady Mullen Yes! and don't forget loan paydown. Another part of IRR.

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Lucia Rushton:
    Quote from @Brady Mullen:
    Quote from @Lucia Rushton:

    @Brady Mullen and when you mention the loan and financing, you didn’t mention the rate cap, which today is an outrageous expense that is sucking most, if not all the profit out of deals that have been done in the last couple of years. the bridge loans that are coming to maturity are the ones hit hardest.


     Can you expound?  I'm not clear on this.

    An interest rate cap is a limit on how high an interest rate can rise on variable rate debt. Interest rate caps are commonly used in variable-rate mortgages and specifically adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loans.

    Interest rate caps can have an overall limit on the interest for the loan and also be structured to limit incremental increases in the rate of a loan. They provide a ceiling for maximum interest rate costs.

    HOWEVER, it will cost you. And the price has significantly increased this past year. We know a very seasoned Syndicator who had a $90K Rate Cap; this year the lender quoted the same Rate Cap at over $1M. Ouch.

    Borrowers are stuck, they have no choice. And this increased expense was not factored into their underwriting.

    More information below plus my personal opinion included.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/capstructure.asp

    Gotcha. My post was geared toward newer investors who are looking at SFR's or 2-4 plexes. They get hung up on cap rates, and they usually don't even know what it means. And the internet often doesn't help. Investopedia is a great sight, but it even defines cap rate as an investment return.

    That said, the rates I used in my calculations are fixed, which doesn't really apply to commercial investing.  Sorry if I didn't make that clear in my original post.  Thanks, @Lucia Rushton!

  • Realtor · Dallas - Fort Worth Metroplex, TX · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 925 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Brady Mullen:
    Quote from @Lucia Rushton:
    Quote from @Brady Mullen:
    Quote from @Lucia Rushton:

    @Brady Mullen and when you mention the loan and financing, you didn’t mention the rate cap, which today is an outrageous expense that is sucking most, if not all the profit out of deals that have been done in the last couple of years. the bridge loans that are coming to maturity are the ones hit hardest.


     Can you expound?  I'm not clear on this.

    An interest rate cap is a limit on how high an interest rate can rise on variable rate debt. Interest rate caps are commonly used in variable-rate mortgages and specifically adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) loans.

    Interest rate caps can have an overall limit on the interest for the loan and also be structured to limit incremental increases in the rate of a loan. They provide a ceiling for maximum interest rate costs.

    HOWEVER, it will cost you. And the price has significantly increased this past year. We know a very seasoned Syndicator who had a $90K Rate Cap; this year the lender quoted the same Rate Cap at over $1M. Ouch.

    Borrowers are stuck, they have no choice. And this increased expense was not factored into their underwriting.

    More information below plus my personal opinion included.

    https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/capstructure.asp

    Gotcha. My post was geared toward newer investors who are looking at SFR's or 2-4 plexes. They get hung up on cap rates, and they usually don't even know what it means. And the internet often doesn't help. Investopedia is a great sight, but it even defines cap rate as an investment return.

    That said, the rates I used in my calculations are fixed, which doesn't really apply to commercial investing.  Sorry if I didn't make that clear in my original post.  Thanks, @Lucia Rushton!


     Agreed, Cap rate is not applicable in 1-4s. nor Rate Caps :)

  • Real Estate Agent · Rapid City SD, United States · Member since 2023 · 10 posts · 3 votes
    3y

    Awesome post and well explained. Perhaps it is because I am in a smaller market, but its seems that a majority of the investors I talk to focus exclusively on the cap rate so, as you mentioned, I am forced to discuss the property in the way that they understand. In your experience, how do you educate them or shift the discussion into a way that looks at the whole picture, without making their eyes glaze over as you bring up IRR, tax benefits, etc?

  • Rental Property Investor · Honolulu, HAWAII (HI) · Member since 2011 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    Internal Rate of Return is often mixed up with return on investment and cash on cash. But here's the thing: over a single year, these percentages look the same. IRR, however, dives deeper. It considers the time value of money and gives you an average return, annualized, over a certain period.

    For instance, imagine you invested 10k and got a 7% return annually for 5 years, compounding each year. That's a 7% IRR over those 5 years, assuming you get your 10k back at the end. When it comes to real estate, it's rare for an asset to give a consistent return. Assets usually grow in value over time. IRR can factor in this growth and the increase in cash flows, giving you a single metric to evaluate an investment.

    But here's my personal take: I don't put much stock in IRR. Why? It's easy to manipulate. A slight tweak, like showing a refinance in year 2 as part of your pro forma instead of year 3-4, can magically boost a 13% IRR deal to 16-17%. If you really want to get it, I'd suggest playing around with an IRR calculator spreadsheet.

    For me, a deal that meets the minimal IRR standards is around 13-15%. But you've got to dig deep. Look at the cashflows, capitalization events, and then go even further. Check assumptions like occupancy rates, yearly rent increases, and the reversion cap rate used.

    To be honest, I don't chase IRR because it's often tweaked. I focus on the total return over a 5-year span. Think of it like checking an NFL player's 40-yard dash but for apartment underwriting. There might be other methods out there, but I aim for consistency. My goal? To pick the best in the field.

    For those interested, here's a BP article that sheds more light on IRR: What is Internal Rate of Return (IRR)?

  • Real Estate Broker · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y

    Here's the problem @Brady Mullen, 98% of person on BP, call em "the noob's", all this is technical jargon. It's like walking up to a 727's cockpit and saying "Ho do you fly this" and the pilot goes into the weeds of the 144,000 knobs, dials and details when all one was looking for is "you push the throttle here, steer here, pull back and ZOOOmmmmm away we go" lol. 

    The vast majority mix up word sand terms because they don't care about all that, what they care about is "SHOW ME THE MONEY". Not the technical's of how we analyze "THE MONEY". 

    For those; I think the best way to do this is snap-shots made uber simple. Put in (a) $'s, do (b) with it, and at yr 1 you should possibly have (Q) back in your hand. At year 3 it's (X), at year 5 it's (Y) and year 7 it's (Z).    Q,X,Y, or Z = __% of A. 

    Simple. Direct. 

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Greg Scott:

    Great post.

    I would add that on single family, duplexes, tris and quads, Cap Rate is arguably irrelevant. 

    Those properties are all priced based on Comparative Market Analysis (aka CMA or comps). Because value is disconnected from Cap Rate in these cases, you can find a deal that you buy at a low Cap Rate, but with a price way below comps, so have a massive return. Conversely, I could find one with a high Cap Rate but I'm over-paying so my returns are lower. So, while it may be interesting for conversation purposes, on small properties, Cap Rate is about as useful as the human appendix.

    As you pointed out, on commercial properties, including apartments, are valued based on the income approach. NOI and Cap Rate are critical to establishing value.

    @Greg Scott

    Help me understand why cap rate is irrelevant for 1-4 units. From what I can tell, it is just used differently.

    In multifamily or commercial, it is used to determine value, right? If it produces $50k NOI in a 5% cap market, the value is $1M.

    In 1-4 units, it tells the buyer roughly how much NOI to expect for the price they're paying and helps compare to other options.

    I will certainly say it is misused almost always, hence my original post here, but I can’t get to “irrelevant” in my head.

    It’s a legitimate question. I admittedly don’t claim to be a multifamily or commercial expert, and I’m open to learning more.

    Cheers!

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Daniel Logan:

    Awesome post and well explained. Perhaps it is because I am in a smaller market, but its seems that a majority of the investors I talk to focus exclusively on the cap rate so, as you mentioned, I am forced to discuss the property in the way that they understand. In your experience, how do you educate them or shift the discussion into a way that looks at the whole picture, without making their eyes glaze over as you bring up IRR, tax benefits, etc?

    I guess it depends on my audience.  If they are sold on investing in real estate already and they just want to chase cap rates, it's one thing, if I'm presenting to a group about the value of investing in real estate in general, it's another.

    I'd be interested in chatting about the obstacles you're dealing with and how you handle them if you're open to it.  Let me know, and we'll connect.  I promise, I'm not selling anything. :)  I'd really just like to share notes on language and tools that we're using in different contexts.
  • Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes
    3y
    Quote from @James Hamling:

    Here's the problem @Brady Mullen, 98% of person on BP, call em "the noob's", all this is technical jargon. It's like walking up to a 727's cockpit and saying "Ho do you fly this" and the pilot goes into the weeds of the 144,000 knobs, dials and details when all one was looking for is "you push the throttle here, steer here, pull back and ZOOOmmmmm away we go" lol. 

    The vast majority mix up word sand terms because they don't care about all that, what they care about is "SHOW ME THE MONEY". Not the technical's of how we analyze "THE MONEY". 

    For those; I think the best way to do this is snap-shots made uber simple. Put in (a) $'s, do (b) with it, and at yr 1 you should possibly have (Q) back in your hand. At year 3 it's (X), at year 5 it's (Y) and year 7 it's (Z).    Q,X,Y, or Z = __% of A. 

    Simple. Direct. 


     I could not agree more.  That's kind of my point with all this.  People consider dipping their toe into real estate investing, see "cap rate" and equate it to a return, which it is not, of course, and think "5% isn't worth it.  I'd rather invest where my financial planner recommends."

    Our challenge in the industry is to account for all the material things but present it in a simple and direct way to show them that a 5% cap property will probably perform better than your stock portfolio with even a modest amount of leverage.

    Here's the amount you're investing, here's what you have in 1 yr, 5 yrs, etc. to show for it.  Here's how that compares to other investment options at your disposal.  It's up to you.

    Thanks, James.  Your feedback is always valued.

    Cheers!

  • Justin R.Pro Member
    Rental Property Investor · San Anselmo · Member since 2015 · 659 posts · 599 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Brady Mullen:

    Cap rate is a common and important measurement in real estate investing, but it seems I see it misused more often than not.

    Cap rate is an income measurement only. It is a measurement of the annual net operating income (NOI) produced by an asset, relative to that asset's value. Annual NOI/Asset Value. That might sound simple, but it's so often confused with return.

    NOI is the revenue minus operating expenses. These expenses include taxes, insurance, HOA, and even maintenance expenses (often missing in cap rate calculations on listings, by the way, so verify!) It is also key to note that debt service (mortgage payment) is not an operating expense, and there's good reason for that.

    So, if a duplex receives $60,000/yr in rent, has $10,000 in operating expenses, or $50,000 in NOI (revenue minus operating expenses), and it is worth $1M, then it has a cap rate of 5.0%.

    This is true whether you purchased it with cash or with a 75% loan from the bank because debt payments are not an operating expense. They are an acquisition expense.

    If you're buying an asset with a 5.0% cap rate, that is not your return. Your return would be the cap rate plus any appreciation.  But not quite...

    Your revenue (rents) and your expenses are also likely going to rise over time, so this has to be taken into consideration.

    Lastly, this all goes nuts when you introduce a loan/leverage. You didn't exactly buy that property for $1M. You paid $250k, but now, much (or all) of your new investment's NOI must go to cover the mortgage payment.

    This is usually when we talk about positive and negative cash flow. We want all the NOI to cover even the debt payment (both principal and interest), which it often does. This is downright remarkable, by the way.

    This is harder to do when interest rates are higher, but it can be done by putting more down or investing in higher income markets, or getting creative in other ways.

    When people confuse cap rate with return, they say to themselves, "Why would I invest in real estate to get a 5% return when I could invest in something much safer and with much less involvement and get 5%?"

    That's a great question! You wouldn't.

    However, cap rate is not your return. If you find a property with a 5% cap rate, and you assume 4% appreciation on the asset (averaged over time), and you borrow 75% of the purchase price at an 8% rate (I'm using that to show it can still make sense), your compounding annualized rate of return is closer to 11% over the next 5 years.

    And if it appreciates at an average of 5% over the next 5 years, your annualized return jumps to 14% (the loan causes this anomaly where additional appreciation of just 1% will have that effect, which is why it is aptly called leverage).

    What's even more outrageous is that your tax-equivalent rate of return is going to be another few percentages higher (depending on your circumstances) because real estate is generally a very tax-friendly investment.

    Of course, you won't hear this from most financial advisors.

     Awesome Post!! 

    Only two things I would add. Principle pay down. This is huge on long term holds, and along with appreciation creates equity and wealth.

    Next, is the reason for cap rate. It is really the measure linked to compare two like kind assets, in two similar markets. 

    There can be great 5 caps, and really bad 15 caps.

  • Denver, CO · Member since 2021 · 59 posts · 100 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Justin R.:
    Quote from @Brady Mullen:

    Cap rate is a common and important measurement in real estate investing, but it seems I see it misused more often than not.

    Cap rate is an income measurement only. It is a measurement of the annual net operating income (NOI) produced by an asset, relative to that asset's value. Annual NOI/Asset Value. That might sound simple, but it's so often confused with return.

    NOI is the revenue minus operating expenses. These expenses include taxes, insurance, HOA, and even maintenance expenses (often missing in cap rate calculations on listings, by the way, so verify!) It is also key to note that debt service (mortgage payment) is not an operating expense, and there's good reason for that.

    So, if a duplex receives $60,000/yr in rent, has $10,000 in operating expenses, or $50,000 in NOI (revenue minus operating expenses), and it is worth $1M, then it has a cap rate of 5.0%.

    This is true whether you purchased it with cash or with a 75% loan from the bank because debt payments are not an operating expense. They are an acquisition expense.

    If you're buying an asset with a 5.0% cap rate, that is not your return. Your return would be the cap rate plus any appreciation.  But not quite...

    Your revenue (rents) and your expenses are also likely going to rise over time, so this has to be taken into consideration.

    Lastly, this all goes nuts when you introduce a loan/leverage. You didn't exactly buy that property for $1M. You paid $250k, but now, much (or all) of your new investment's NOI must go to cover the mortgage payment.

    This is usually when we talk about positive and negative cash flow. We want all the NOI to cover even the debt payment (both principal and interest), which it often does. This is downright remarkable, by the way.

    This is harder to do when interest rates are higher, but it can be done by putting more down or investing in higher income markets, or getting creative in other ways.

    When people confuse cap rate with return, they say to themselves, "Why would I invest in real estate to get a 5% return when I could invest in something much safer and with much less involvement and get 5%?"

    That's a great question! You wouldn't.

    However, cap rate is not your return. If you find a property with a 5% cap rate, and you assume 4% appreciation on the asset (averaged over time), and you borrow 75% of the purchase price at an 8% rate (I'm using that to show it can still make sense), your compounding annualized rate of return is closer to 11% over the next 5 years.

    And if it appreciates at an average of 5% over the next 5 years, your annualized return jumps to 14% (the loan causes this anomaly where additional appreciation of just 1% will have that effect, which is why it is aptly called leverage).

    What's even more outrageous is that your tax-equivalent rate of return is going to be another few percentages higher (depending on your circumstances) because real estate is generally a very tax-friendly investment.

    Of course, you won't hear this from most financial advisors.

     Awesome Post!! 

    Only two things I would add. Principle pay down. This is huge on long term holds, and along with appreciation creates equity and wealth.

    Next, is the reason for cap rate. It is really the measure linked to compare two like kind assets, in two similar markets. 

    There can be great 5 caps, and really bad 15 caps.


     Thank you, Justin!  The annualized rates of return I quoted do include debt paydown (although I didn't mention it specifically).  As you mentioned, debt paydown is a major oversight in most napkin-math calculations.  It makes a HUGE difference in return!

    There's even a case to be made that in a negative cash flow situation, if you're paying down more debt than your monthly cash flow is negative, then you're actually buying equity at a discount.  People still need to be careful with cash flow, of course, so all I'm saying is "there's a case to be made."

    Great point on the cap rate, too.  Chasing cap rate can be dangerous - it can lead to really challenging properties.  In most cases, there's a reason for a high cap.  That income doesn't come for free.

    Cheers!

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Brady Mullen:

    Cap rate is a common and important measurement in real estate investing, but it seems I see it misused more often than not.

    Cap rate is an income measurement only. It is a measurement of the annual net operating income (NOI) produced by an asset, relative to that asset's value. Annual NOI/Asset Value. That might sound simple, but it's so often confused with return.

    NOI is the revenue minus operating expenses. These expenses include taxes, insurance, HOA, and even maintenance expenses (often missing in cap rate calculations on listings, by the way, so verify!) It is also key to note that debt service (mortgage payment) is not an operating expense, and there's good reason for that.

    So, if a duplex receives $60,000/yr in rent, has $10,000 in operating expenses, or $50,000 in NOI (revenue minus operating expenses), and it is worth $1M, then it has a cap rate of 5.0%.

    This is true whether you purchased it with cash or with a 75% loan from the bank because debt payments are not an operating expense. They are an acquisition expense.

    If you're buying an asset with a 5.0% cap rate, that is not your return. Your return would be the cap rate plus any appreciation.  But not quite...

    Your revenue (rents) and your expenses are also likely going to rise over time, so this has to be taken into consideration.

    Lastly, this all goes nuts when you introduce a loan/leverage. You didn't exactly buy that property for $1M. You paid $250k, but now, much (or all) of your new investment's NOI must go to cover the mortgage payment.

    This is usually when we talk about positive and negative cash flow. We want all the NOI to cover even the debt payment (both principal and interest), which it often does. This is downright remarkable, by the way.

    This is harder to do when interest rates are higher, but it can be done by putting more down or investing in higher income markets, or getting creative in other ways.

    When people confuse cap rate with return, they say to themselves, "Why would I invest in real estate to get a 5% return when I could invest in something much safer and with much less involvement and get 5%?"

    That's a great question! You wouldn't.

    However, cap rate is not your return. If you find a property with a 5% cap rate, and you assume 4% appreciation on the asset (averaged over time), and you borrow 75% of the purchase price at an 8% rate (I'm using that to show it can still make sense), your compounding annualized rate of return is closer to 11% over the next 5 years.

    And if it appreciates at an average of 5% over the next 5 years, your annualized return jumps to 14% (the loan causes this anomaly where additional appreciation of just 1% will have that effect, which is why it is aptly called leverage).

    What's even more outrageous is that your tax-equivalent rate of return is going to be another few percentages higher (depending on your circumstances) because real estate is generally a very tax-friendly investment.

    Of course, you won't hear this from most financial advisors.


    Even the cap rate itself is not important, compare to the importance of the "trend of the cap rate" and the "comps of cap rate" because that would indicate "market sentiments".

    What most folks unable to grasp is, for 9% cap rate to reach 7% cap rate , is faster than cap rate from 6% cap rate to 5% cap rate.

    The trend of cap rate is more like "the velocity of a trend" which is what we're chasing as investor , that translate to IRR and XIRR at the end of year 5 like Lane described.

  • Investor · Provo, UT · Member since 2016 · 759 posts · 626 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Brady Mullen:

    Cap rate is a common and important measurement in real estate investing, but it seems I see it misused more often than not.

    Cap rate is an income measurement only. It is a measurement of the annual net operating income (NOI) produced by an asset, relative to that asset's value. Annual NOI/Asset Value. That might sound simple, but it's so often confused with return.

    NOI is the revenue minus operating expenses. These expenses include taxes, insurance, HOA, and even maintenance expenses (often missing in cap rate calculations on listings, by the way, so verify!) It is also key to note that debt service (mortgage payment) is not an operating expense, and there's good reason for that.

    So, if a duplex receives $60,000/yr in rent, has $10,000 in operating expenses, or $50,000 in NOI (revenue minus operating expenses), and it is worth $1M, then it has a cap rate of 5.0%.

    This is true whether you purchased it with cash or with a 75% loan from the bank because debt payments are not an operating expense. They are an acquisition expense.

    If you're buying an asset with a 5.0% cap rate, that is not your return. Your return would be the cap rate plus any appreciation.  But not quite...

    Your revenue (rents) and your expenses are also likely going to rise over time, so this has to be taken into consideration.

    Lastly, this all goes nuts when you introduce a loan/leverage. You didn't exactly buy that property for $1M. You paid $250k, but now, much (or all) of your new investment's NOI must go to cover the mortgage payment.

    This is usually when we talk about positive and negative cash flow. We want all the NOI to cover even the debt payment (both principal and interest), which it often does. This is downright remarkable, by the way.

    This is harder to do when interest rates are higher, but it can be done by putting more down or investing in higher income markets, or getting creative in other ways.

    When people confuse cap rate with return, they say to themselves, "Why would I invest in real estate to get a 5% return when I could invest in something much safer and with much less involvement and get 5%?"

    That's a great question! You wouldn't.

    However, cap rate is not your return. If you find a property with a 5% cap rate, and you assume 4% appreciation on the asset (averaged over time), and you borrow 75% of the purchase price at an 8% rate (I'm using that to show it can still make sense), your compounding annualized rate of return is closer to 11% over the next 5 years.

    And if it appreciates at an average of 5% over the next 5 years, your annualized return jumps to 14% (the loan causes this anomaly where additional appreciation of just 1% will have that effect, which is why it is aptly called leverage).

    What's even more outrageous is that your tax-equivalent rate of return is going to be another few percentages higher (depending on your circumstances) because real estate is generally a very tax-friendly investment.

    Of course, you won't hear this from most financial advisors.

     Great break down @Brady Mullen

    This is the exact reason that seller financing/creative financing allows for ways to win on difficult properties even if the cap rate isn't attractive, the focus starts to shift to IRR and Cash on Cash.

  • Kansas City, MO · Member since 2017 · 29 posts · 3 votes
    3y

    @Brady Mullen off-topic, however please see below.

    1. "I have a rental property in Topeka, Kansas, and I'd like to transform it into specialized housing for seniors or those with developmental challenges. What legal, logistical, and financial steps should I follow to make this transition successfully while maximizing returns?"

    2. "I've encountered challenges selling my Kansas City, Missouri home, initially listed at $425k but reduced to $390k, while having a contingent purchase at $515k with a need for $150k for payoffs and closing costs. How can I effectively navigate this situation and secure a buyer quickly to meet my financial requirements?" please advise?

  • Rochester, MN · Member since 2015 · 6 posts · 3 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Brady Mullen:
    Quote from @Greg Scott:

    Great post.

    I would add that on single family, duplexes, tris and quads, Cap Rate is arguably irrelevant. 

    Those properties are all priced based on Comparative Market Analysis (aka CMA or comps). Because value is disconnected from Cap Rate in these cases, you can find a deal that you buy at a low Cap Rate, but with a price way below comps, so have a massive return. Conversely, I could find one with a high Cap Rate but I'm over-paying so my returns are lower. So, while it may be interesting for conversation purposes, on small properties, Cap Rate is about as useful as the human appendix.

    As you pointed out, on commercial properties, including apartments, are valued based on the income approach. NOI and Cap Rate are critical to establishing value.

    @Greg Scott

    Help me understand why cap rate is irrelevant for 1-4 units. From what I can tell, it is just used differently.

    In multifamily or commercial, it is used to determine value, right? If it produces $50k NOI in a 5% cap market, the value is $1M.

    In 1-4 units, it tells the buyer roughly how much NOI to expect for the price they're paying and helps compare to other options.

    I will certainly say it is misused almost always, hence my original post here, but I can’t get to “irrelevant” in my head.

    It’s a legitimate question. I admittedly don’t claim to be a multifamily or commercial expert, and I’m open to learning more.

    Cheers!

    I think it comes with how properties are compared and goals of the owner eg looking at sales of a 40 unit and a 50 unit in a similar market, their CAP rates can help you value a different 45 unit property as all the properties would be investment properties instead of someone wanting a place to live.

    For 1-4 unit, looking at sales comparisons, you don't necessarily know if you have an owner occupied sale which would skew things as an OO would likely pay more for a property they want to live in and rent out the other units, than a 100% investment property. So if you look at two similar, in-market 4-plexes, the CAP rate may be wildly different and not really tell you what you want to know on a similar, in-market 4-plex you're looking at. If one was purchased by a guy or gal to live in, they may happily have paid more than an investor, who bought the other property, as their goal was to live for free from renting the other 3 units instead of maximizing cashflow from all four.

    How four was selected as the magic number I think has more to do with conventional financing (go to the bank and talk to a regular mortgage loan officer) vs more custom financing (commercial loan types) but there could be more to it.

  • Andrew SyriosPro Member
    Moderator
    Residential Real Estate Investor · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    3y

    Cap rates are useful, but yeah, they're quite a bit different than your return. They don't include appreciation, rental growth, principal paydown, built-in equity nor do they account for your return with a loan. Also, while many cap rates take into account a "replacement reserve" it's rarely enough (from what I've seen) to pay for all needed capital repairs.

  • Greg ScottPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · SE Michigan · Member since 2014 · 4k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Brady Mullen:

    Help me understand why cap rate is irrelevant for 1-4 units. From what I can tell, it is just used differently.


    NOI serves a critical purpose in commercial real estate because it is the basis for value. It does not serve that purpose in non-commercial real estate (SF to Quads), and you correctly point out that Cap Rate does not equal your rate of return.

    For non-commercial real estate, cash on cash return, equity capture are better metrics, and in the long-run equity multiple, IRR or other "total return" metrics give a holistic picture. NOI and Cap Rate are about as important for measuring returns the type of tree growing in the yard; it may be interesting to think about, but has little bearing on profitability.

  • Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    Agree with Julien the exit cap rate is what matters. I would say 90%+ of my clients raise rents after buying. We often see in the gentrifying chicago areas rents a good 30-50% below 2023 market rates. So although they buy at a low cap, once turned over its a much higher cap.

    Appreciation is hard to predict and not normally something I factor in with significant weight.

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