Bay Area and NorCal Investors - thoughts on Class A, B, C and D areas

Bay Area and NorCal Investors - thoughts on Class A, B, C and D areas

Rental Property Investor · San Francisco Bay Area · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes

California investors, what are your thoughts about my ratings below? Do you look at class of neighborhoods when you invested or looking to buy now? What other factors do you consider? 

Also interested from hearing from those who invest in Sacramento and other areas. I'm trying to help out other CA investors (I still think buying locally is better than an inexpensive property OOS where you can't check up on the property)

I don't know the Peninsula well but expensive Palo Alto, Los Gatos, Cupertino would be Class A to me. I wouldn't consider Brentwood and Oakley to be Bay Area but I guess it's becoming so and lots of people are moving up to Stockton. 

I have Class A and Class C (currently huge headaches)  in Indianapolis. I probably would have been better off buying Class C in Oakland or Richmond than in Indy (since CA appreciates more than Midwest) but pro-tenant laws here make me hesitant and it's still expensive. My Bay Area properties are in a good neighborhood. My Class A here and in Indy were acquired pre-2013 so not in this current market. 

For me a quick guide,  is I look at school rankings, easily found on Zillow if you type in a home address and what's surrounding the area as far as types of businesses. 

East Bay  (it can be neighborhood by neighborhood and street by street)

Class A: Orinda, Lafayette, Moraga, Walnut Creek, San Ramon, Danville, Dublin, Pleasanton, maybe parts of Pleasant Hill and Concord, parts of Pinole?, parts of Berkeley, Oakland Hills?, Piedmont?,

Class B: some parts of Concord, parts of Hayward, St. Leandro, El Cerrito, Pinole, parts of Berkeley?, parts of Oakland?, nicer parts of Antioch and Pittsburg/Bay Point?

Class C: rougher parts of Oakland and Richmond, Hayward, Antioch, Pittsburg

Class D: the worst parts of Oakland and Richmond

4Reply
200 views

Most Popular Reply

Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
2y

I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 

See this reply in the discussion

19 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Bjorn AhlbladPro Member
    Investor · Shelton, WA · Member since 2017 · 6k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    2y

    I invested in the Bay Area for 30 years-specifically San Mateo and Los Gatos. I generally agree with your categories and the areas you picked. For me the categories are more about the tenants you are able to deal with rather then just bricks and stucco. 

    Many landlords thrive on C and D properties, generally they are beyond my capabilities. We sold the last Ca property in 2017 but started buying in the PNW around 2015. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Santa Clara, CA · Member since 2016 · 223 posts · 112 votes
    2y

    List is not exhaustive but a very good one. When I invest in bay area, where the median household incomes and average property values are so high, focus shifts from places meets my criterion than crime and quality of neighborhood. I will not have to avoid many areas but a few based on crime. Generally downtown areas are higher in crime but comes with other advantage. 

    Rent control is another strong factor as many cities have super strict rent control for duplexes and up with Oakland and San Francisco leading the way. I would avoid several cities like Oakland, San Francisco, Berkley etc just for that reason. Previously SF had fantastic growth to make sense in spite of restrictions, now its not growing as much either. 

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Becca F.:

    California investors, what are your thoughts about my ratings below? Do you look at class of neighborhoods when you invested or looking to buy now? What other factors do you consider? 

    Also interested from hearing from those who invest in Sacramento and other areas. I'm trying to help out other CA investors (I still think buying locally is better than an inexpensive property OOS where you can't check up on the property)

    I don't know the Peninsula well but expensive Palo Alto, Los Gatos, Cupertino would be Class A to me. I wouldn't consider Brentwood and Oakley to be Bay Area but I guess it's becoming so and lots of people are moving up to Stockton. 

    I have Class A and Class C (currently huge headaches)  in Indianapolis. I probably would have been better off buying Class C in Oakland or Richmond than in Indy (since CA appreciates more than Midwest) but pro-tenant laws here make me hesitant and it's still expensive. My Bay Area properties are in a good neighborhood. My Class A here and in Indy were acquired pre-2013 so not in this current market. 

    For me a quick guide,  is I look at school rankings, easily found on Zillow if you type in a home address and what's surrounding the area as far as types of businesses. 

    East Bay  (it can be neighborhood by neighborhood and street by street)

    Class A: Orinda, Lafayette, Moraga, Walnut Creek, San Ramon, Danville, Dublin, Pleasanton, maybe parts of Pleasant Hill and Concord, parts of Pinole?, parts of Berkeley, Oakland Hills?, Piedmont?,

    Class B: some parts of Concord, parts of Hayward, St. Leandro, El Cerrito, Pinole, parts of Berkeley?, parts of Oakland?, nicer parts of Antioch and Pittsburg/Bay Point?

    Class C: rougher parts of Oakland and Richmond, Hayward, Antioch, Pittsburg

    Class D: the worst parts of Oakland and Richmond

    Most of your class A is actually Class A- in my opinion.

    Concord is class C, anything in hill side is class A-/B+. Walnut Creek is very far from class A, it's class B+ max.
    Antioch depends on highway is class C- or class D. El Cerito/Pinole is combo of class B-/Class C.

    some part of oakland maybe class E if there's class at all.

    For Class A++ you miss Los Gatos/Los Altos/Atherton ..... Peninsula/area near Stanford

    now if you talk about san Jose , for each zip code I can give rating from class B to class D.

    Speaking of the area I can recommend some good food in each town lol.

    For me I'd rather classifying those town based on food, for best Korean I would pick Santa Clara or Concord. Best Mexican Taco in San Leandro. Best pupusa in Hayward. Best Asian Fusion in Union City. Best Filipino joint in Newark. Best Thai in Sunnyvale/Santa Clara. Best North Indian food in San Jose. Best Ethiopian food in Oakland/Berkeley. Best sushi in San Mateo. Best Brazilian food in Santana Row LOL

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    2y

    I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

    You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

    IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 

  • Rental Property Investor · Santa Clara, CA · Member since 2016 · 223 posts · 112 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

    You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

    IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 

    Yes! it is hard to make sense by rents. I has been a appreciation play always. Buy for 1.5 MM, Pay 25% down, loose $500 every month. But expect to get 7%-10% organic appreciation every year to get a CoC of 25-30%. Has been working well from 2008 onwards till date, but you should have capital and should have alternate income to support the property expenses. Bay area could support that as most SFR landlords here are high earning techies.

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Raju Balakrishnan:
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

    You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

    IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 

    Yes! it is hard to make sense by rents. I has been a appreciation play always. Buy for 1.5 MM, Pay 25% down, loose $500 every month. But expect to get 7%-10% organic appreciation every year to get a CoC of 25-30%. Has been working well from 2008 onwards till date, but you should have capital and should have alternate income to support the property expenses. Bay area could support that as most SFR landlords here are high earning techies.


     Here's some playbook :

    - Typical DSCR 0.9-1.0 rent play: Antioch/Concord
    - Househacking free mortgage area : Hayward,San Leando,San Lorenzo
    - Fix and live in the flip: Hayward, Union City, San Jose, Santa Clara
    - Buy those house and wait for large appreciation: All Peninsula,San Jose,Santa Clara,Cupertino
    - Keep moving every 24 months play: San Jose LOL
    - buy those home with ADU play: Fairview, Hayward Hills, Oakland Hills, Berkeley.

    The creativity is endless in this market.

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    2y

    One thing that investor keep missing is that ......... it's okay to have DSCR 0.7-0.8 if appreciation is more than the mortgage. Also in many zip code in bay area the low comp and high comp could be as wide as $400 PPSF ! So opportunity to flips to make home beautiful is a lot. One could just move to the ugliest home in santa clara, live there for 3-4 years, make it more beautiful and pocket that $500 PPSF diffs.

  • Rental Property Investor · Santa Clara, CA · Member since 2016 · 223 posts · 112 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Raju Balakrishnan:
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

    You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

    IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 

    Yes! it is hard to make sense by rents. I has been a appreciation play always. Buy for 1.5 MM, Pay 25% down, loose $500 every month. But expect to get 7%-10% organic appreciation every year to get a CoC of 25-30%. Has been working well from 2008 onwards till date, but you should have capital and should have alternate income to support the property expenses. Bay area could support that as most SFR landlords here are high earning techies.


     Here's some playbook :

    - Typical DSCR 0.9-1.0 rent play: Antioch/Concord
    - Househacking free mortgage area : Hayward,San Leando,San Lorenzo
    - Fix and live in the flip: Hayward, Union City, San Jose, Santa Clara
    - Buy those house and wait for large appreciation: All Peninsula,San Jose,Santa Clara,Cupertino
    - Keep moving every 24 months play: San Jose LOL
    - buy those home with ADU play: Fairview, Hayward Hills, Oakland Hills, Berkeley.

    The creativity is endless in this market.


     That is a really great list! Any of these are possible in any market. But bay area returns are likely to be higher as the appreciation may add to you active efforts. It is like rowing your boat with the current!  

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Raju Balakrishnan:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Raju Balakrishnan:
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

    You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

    IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 

    Yes! it is hard to make sense by rents. I has been a appreciation play always. Buy for 1.5 MM, Pay 25% down, loose $500 every month. But expect to get 7%-10% organic appreciation every year to get a CoC of 25-30%. Has been working well from 2008 onwards till date, but you should have capital and should have alternate income to support the property expenses. Bay area could support that as most SFR landlords here are high earning techies.


     Here's some playbook :

    - Typical DSCR 0.9-1.0 rent play: Antioch/Concord
    - Househacking free mortgage area : Hayward,San Leando,San Lorenzo
    - Fix and live in the flip: Hayward, Union City, San Jose, Santa Clara
    - Buy those house and wait for large appreciation: All Peninsula,San Jose,Santa Clara,Cupertino
    - Keep moving every 24 months play: San Jose LOL
    - buy those home with ADU play: Fairview, Hayward Hills, Oakland Hills, Berkeley.

    The creativity is endless in this market.


     That is a really great list! Any of these are possible in any market. But bay area returns are likely to be higher as the appreciation may add to you active efforts. It is like rowing your boat with the current!  


    Mathematically speaking, bay area market is extremely niche market. It's not market like outside bay area where appreciation is driven by the aggregation of buying power or DTI limit. It closely following tech stock market after all. The tech industries could have large layoff but if their stock price is rising some employee would get enough cash to buy....more properties. It's no longer secret that even in SF most real estates are bought by the startup of founders of the tech 21 bonanza. Now we have layoff but we had sizeable new money coming from AI and it seems Facebook and Nvidia employee keep buying homes. lot of folks are buying homes from stock, not from cash. It's just gentrification process from baby boomers/old timer settler to the new tech generation. Also it creates problem, lets say in one zip code we had 100 homes, i would say 80% of the settler in that area would not even able to pay the mortgage if they have to adjust to today's price. this would create unique problem where they could be cash poor but having large equity (think like baby boomber that purchase 125k homes in santa clara in 1981), since they can no longer afford to pay mortgage, hence they prefer to sell, they can get 1-2 mil easily and  then rent or buy elsewhere, live in florida for sure. It's wealth transfer process but also sort of gentrification. Probably they would never imagine these return. Compare to their cousin that purchased similar house in Ohio for 50k in 1981, and they can only sell for 200k. Very different result. LOL

  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco Bay Area · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

    You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

    IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 


     I realized that I left out all of Marin County: Marin, Mill Valley, Corte Madera, Larkspur. I don't know those areas. I guess I need to get out of my East Bay and San Francisco bubble. 

    I also didn't list Vallejo, Benicia, Fairfield, Vacaville which is getting far out. 

    I know a couple of flippers doing well in the Bay Area but wouldn't flip anywhere - attempted it in Indiana but too risky with the potential return of $20,000 to $50,000 at best so got out of those deals. 

  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco Bay Area · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Raju Balakrishnan:
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

    You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

    IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 

    Yes! it is hard to make sense by rents. I has been a appreciation play always. Buy for 1.5 MM, Pay 25% down, loose $500 every month. But expect to get 7%-10% organic appreciation every year to get a CoC of 25-30%. Has been working well from 2008 onwards till date, but you should have capital and should have alternate income to support the property expenses. Bay area could support that as most SFR landlords here are high earning techies.


     Here's some playbook :

    - Typical DSCR 0.9-1.0 rent play: Antioch/Concord
    - Househacking free mortgage area : Hayward,San Leando,San Lorenzo
    - Fix and live in the flip: Hayward, Union City, San Jose, Santa Clara
    - Buy those house and wait for large appreciation: All Peninsula,San Jose,Santa Clara,Cupertino
    - Keep moving every 24 months play: San Jose LOL
    - buy those home with ADU play: Fairview, Hayward Hills, Oakland Hills, Berkeley.

    The creativity is endless in this market.

    Carlos, that's a great analysis but I'm not sure how you got DSCR 0.9-1.0 in Antioch/Concord? Is that buying distressed and doing a rehab or including move in ready? 

    There's no way in the Midwest or parts of the South (maybe Texas?) to be -$500 a month and go for an appreciation play like here. My nice suburban house with good schools in Indy went from $140,000 in 2013 to $285,000 in 2023 (range is $277,000-$300,000 if there was a multiple offer situation). I have a low interest rate, considered selling all 3 Indy homes to 1031 to buy in Sacramento ($500,000 range) for California appreciation but I'm not going to buy anymore at 7% interest rates. It's an uphill battle. 

    I agree the Bay Area is a niche market. As people move further out would other areas of NorCal become like the Bay Area? Would like to hear more from investors in other areas: Sacramento, Central Valley, Stockton. 
  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Becca F.:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Raju Balakrishnan:
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

    You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

    IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 

    Yes! it is hard to make sense by rents. I has been a appreciation play always. Buy for 1.5 MM, Pay 25% down, loose $500 every month. But expect to get 7%-10% organic appreciation every year to get a CoC of 25-30%. Has been working well from 2008 onwards till date, but you should have capital and should have alternate income to support the property expenses. Bay area could support that as most SFR landlords here are high earning techies.


     Here's some playbook :

    - Typical DSCR 0.9-1.0 rent play: Antioch/Concord
    - Househacking free mortgage area : Hayward,San Leando,San Lorenzo
    - Fix and live in the flip: Hayward, Union City, San Jose, Santa Clara
    - Buy those house and wait for large appreciation: All Peninsula,San Jose,Santa Clara,Cupertino
    - Keep moving every 24 months play: San Jose LOL
    - buy those home with ADU play: Fairview, Hayward Hills, Oakland Hills, Berkeley.

    The creativity is endless in this market.

    Carlos, that's a great analysis but I'm not sure how you got DSCR 0.9-1.0 in Antioch/Concord? Is that buying distressed and doing a rehab or including move in ready? 

    There's no way in the Midwest or parts of the South (maybe Texas?) to be -$500 a month and go for an appreciation play like here. My nice suburban house with good schools in Indy went from $140,000 in 2013 to $285,000 in 2023 (range is $277,000-$300,000 if there was a multiple offer situation). I have a low interest rate, considered selling all 3 Indy homes to 1031 to buy in Sacramento ($500,000 range) for California appreciation but I'm not going to buy anymore at 7% interest rates. It's an uphill battle. 

    I agree the Bay Area is a niche market. As people move further out would other areas of NorCal become like the Bay Area? Would like to hear more from investors in other areas: Sacramento, Central Valley, Stockton. 

    my antioch duplex was DSCR 1.1 before. But well yes that's with rate of 3-4%. Today I still see 200k apt there you can easily rent it out for 2k-2.2k, but there's HOA.

    The only limitation to bay area really is not the interest rate but the DTI. Because unless one's family are making 400k above it's very hard to compete with those buyers. But having husband and wife that makes almost half million a month is not uncommon ; which makes further gentrification, so folks that only makes 200-300k has to move somewhere if they have to sell and so forth the cycle. Now with interest rate hikes, lot of families are having large equity but cash poor, so they can only move to market with sub-one-million (200k families can afford sub one mil),and so on and so on.

    so people keep moving further to even area like modesto/stockton (these are sub 200k income family) , today the trend in bay area is that sub one mil is having very fast offer LOL , there's almost no opps as every one with BP is very aggressive.

    however, the rental demand is extremely huge. People querying for room is almost daily now. You could always buy 5-6 rooms house in hayward/san leandro/union city and can have positive DSCR.

  • Real Estate Agent · Northern California · Member since 2021 · 17 posts · 15 votes
    2y

    Being a Bay Area native I would say your list is spot on. If you were going to share that outside of this group I would be more specific on what the rougher areas were...for example East Oakland off Bancroft or International.  For obvious reasons the  Bay Area is the sexy( high returns); however, you mentioned Nor Cal in your title. For that purpose I would like to share some attractive ares that are not as high ticket, and a way to avoid the rent control. Sacramento is a city and county.  The neighboring counties are Yolo (Davis), Placer, and El Dorado county that are in close proximity, and each have areas that could be considered. Some growing areas to consider would Folsom, El Dorado Hills, Roseville, Lincoln, ELK Grove and certain parts of Sacramento. Sacramento can easily be broken down, and if you had any interest I would be happy to assist with a list.

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Becca F.:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Raju Balakrishnan:
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

    You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

    IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 

    Yes! it is hard to make sense by rents. I has been a appreciation play always. Buy for 1.5 MM, Pay 25% down, loose $500 every month. But expect to get 7%-10% organic appreciation every year to get a CoC of 25-30%. Has been working well from 2008 onwards till date, but you should have capital and should have alternate income to support the property expenses. Bay area could support that as most SFR landlords here are high earning techies.


     Here's some playbook :

    - Typical DSCR 0.9-1.0 rent play: Antioch/Concord
    - Househacking free mortgage area : Hayward,San Leando,San Lorenzo
    - Fix and live in the flip: Hayward, Union City, San Jose, Santa Clara
    - Buy those house and wait for large appreciation: All Peninsula,San Jose,Santa Clara,Cupertino
    - Keep moving every 24 months play: San Jose LOL
    - buy those home with ADU play: Fairview, Hayward Hills, Oakland Hills, Berkeley.

    The creativity is endless in this market.

    Carlos, that's a great analysis but I'm not sure how you got DSCR 0.9-1.0 in Antioch/Concord? Is that buying distressed and doing a rehab or including move in ready? 

    There's no way in the Midwest or parts of the South (maybe Texas?) to be -$500 a month and go for an appreciation play like here. My nice suburban house with good schools in Indy went from $140,000 in 2013 to $285,000 in 2023 (range is $277,000-$300,000 if there was a multiple offer situation). I have a low interest rate, considered selling all 3 Indy homes to 1031 to buy in Sacramento ($500,000 range) for California appreciation but I'm not going to buy anymore at 7% interest rates. It's an uphill battle. 

    I agree the Bay Area is a niche market. As people move further out would other areas of NorCal become like the Bay Area? Would like to hear more from investors in other areas: Sacramento, Central Valley, Stockton. 

     Here's some more playbook for you rather than just simply focusing on the area :

    a) buy house with 5-7 rooms, rent it out as room. Rent each for $1k-$1.2k. Sell again 7 years later.
    b) buy home with ADU, live there. Mortgage free.
    c) buy home with already having converted room/bathroom/basement. Plenty ! either live in there or sell.
    d) for flip, buy cheapest home available from gilroy to peninsula LOL

    The way to understand this market is you need to categorize the price and compare with family income. Sometimes there's an edge. 

  • Investor · Oakland, CA · Member since 2015 · 141 posts · 84 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Becca F.:
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
    Quote from @Raju Balakrishnan:
    Quote from @Jay Hinrichs:

    I dont see much of the SF penninsula being a target for landlords these days especially with SFRs MF sure plex's sure.. but SFR are so expensive I really wonder how many folks buy those with the intentions of renting them.

    You also skipped the North bay..  I can see though flipping in the expensive markets.. its alive and well just numbers that would make most folks eyes water in the rest of the country.

    IE paying 1.5 for a fixer putting 300k into it or 500k then selling for 2.5  ..  takes a lot of capital but I know its still alive and well . 

    Yes! it is hard to make sense by rents. I has been a appreciation play always. Buy for 1.5 MM, Pay 25% down, loose $500 every month. But expect to get 7%-10% organic appreciation every year to get a CoC of 25-30%. Has been working well from 2008 onwards till date, but you should have capital and should have alternate income to support the property expenses. Bay area could support that as most SFR landlords here are high earning techies.


     Here's some playbook :

    - Typical DSCR 0.9-1.0 rent play: Antioch/Concord
    - Househacking free mortgage area : Hayward,San Leando,San Lorenzo
    - Fix and live in the flip: Hayward, Union City, San Jose, Santa Clara
    - Buy those house and wait for large appreciation: All Peninsula,San Jose,Santa Clara,Cupertino
    - Keep moving every 24 months play: San Jose LOL
    - buy those home with ADU play: Fairview, Hayward Hills, Oakland Hills, Berkeley.

    The creativity is endless in this market.

    Carlos, that's a great analysis but I'm not sure how you got DSCR 0.9-1.0 in Antioch/Concord? Is that buying distressed and doing a rehab or including move in ready? 

    There's no way in the Midwest or parts of the South (maybe Texas?) to be -$500 a month and go for an appreciation play like here. My nice suburban house with good schools in Indy went from $140,000 in 2013 to $285,000 in 2023 (range is $277,000-$300,000 if there was a multiple offer situation). I have a low interest rate, considered selling all 3 Indy homes to 1031 to buy in Sacramento ($500,000 range) for California appreciation but I'm not going to buy anymore at 7% interest rates. It's an uphill battle. 

    I agree the Bay Area is a niche market. As people move further out would other areas of NorCal become like the Bay Area? Would like to hear more from investors in other areas: Sacramento, Central Valley, Stockton. 

     Bay Area niche market? NO WAY JOSE!  The Bay Area is the driver of all No.Cal values! 
    people commute 60 -90 minutes daily for a job in the Bay Area. What are those values in the areas they live $500k & up! Why are they that high? Because people want to live in N.CA. The job market is here in the Bay Area. Yet we no longer have viable lots in which to build homes. Thus the demand for land has been push in ALL directions with Oakland as it's hub on the East side. Try and find an affordable lot in Manteca 65 miles from Oakland. Or Sacramento 90 miles away. Cost to build $350 - $700/sqft or more. 

    Those distant places now see themselves as the BAY AREA! Northern CA. is the Bay Area!

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    2y

    bay area is very niche because home appreciation is not following standard metric like population but following tech stock market index.

    in reality everyone in the world by purchasing apple and using google is pretty much generating wealth transfer from people in the world to people living in bay area.

  • Scott ScovilleBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Sacramento, CA · Member since 2019 · 502 posts · 276 votes
    2y
    Quote from @Becca F.:

    California investors, what are your thoughts about my ratings below? Do you look at class of neighborhoods when you invested or looking to buy now? What other factors do you consider? 

    Also interested from hearing from those who invest in Sacramento and other areas. I'm trying to help out other CA investors (I still think buying locally is better than an inexpensive property OOS where you can't check up on the property)

    I don't know the Peninsula well but expensive Palo Alto, Los Gatos, Cupertino would be Class A to me. I wouldn't consider Brentwood and Oakley to be Bay Area but I guess it's becoming so and lots of people are moving up to Stockton. 

    I have Class A and Class C (currently huge headaches)  in Indianapolis. I probably would have been better off buying Class C in Oakland or Richmond than in Indy (since CA appreciates more than Midwest) but pro-tenant laws here make me hesitant and it's still expensive. My Bay Area properties are in a good neighborhood. My Class A here and in Indy were acquired pre-2013 so not in this current market. 

    For me a quick guide,  is I look at school rankings, easily found on Zillow if you type in a home address and what's surrounding the area as far as types of businesses. 

    East Bay  (it can be neighborhood by neighborhood and street by street)

    Class A: Orinda, Lafayette, Moraga, Walnut Creek, San Ramon, Danville, Dublin, Pleasanton, maybe parts of Pleasant Hill and Concord, parts of Pinole?, parts of Berkeley, Oakland Hills?, Piedmont?,

    Class B: some parts of Concord, parts of Hayward, St. Leandro, El Cerrito, Pinole, parts of Berkeley?, parts of Oakland?, nicer parts of Antioch and Pittsburg/Bay Point?

    Class C: rougher parts of Oakland and Richmond, Hayward, Antioch, Pittsburg

    Class D: the worst parts of Oakland and Richmond


    Hey Becca,

    If you're ever interested in jumping on a call to discuss the Sacramento market. I'd be happy to help. I'm an investor and agent in the Sacramento area. We also have an investor meetup every month if you're ever up in the area.

    Scoville Realty & Investments LLC
  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    2y
    Quote from @Becca F.:

    California investors, what are your thoughts about my ratings below? Do you look at class of neighborhoods when you invested or looking to buy now? What other factors do you consider? 

    Also Becca one thing that I found very interesting in Bay Area is I found the house layout and geographical location is more important than the location is. You could make DSCR 1.0 with 30% down in some specifics area with specific house layout (eg: how many bathrooms), there're already so many houses with converted room/garage/adu and so on that I almost don't need to make modification. The gentrification process is happening daily here and it's opportunity. Sometimes when you are lucky you get opportunity in area A sometimes in area B ; visiting lot of open house is key to find idea. The house layout in neighborhood block in East San Jose is vastly different than Palo Alto and very different than in San Carlos or San Leandro. That creates its own opportunity.

    What's bothering me so much these days are that even Mobile home is rising, it's reaching 450k just for mobile home, it's almost doesn't make sense.

Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.