Big Builders Can't sell to retail? Try new investors!

Big Builders Can't sell to retail? Try new investors!

Real Estate Broker · Northeast PA · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes

Board Room chatter:  "We can't sell to retail buyers, so let's market to the less-than-savvy investors."  Lennar Homes looks like they maybe hit a wall. Now they're marketing new homes directly to investors.

Builders have overbuilt in what were recently hot markets. Sunbelt and parts of West Coast--you know the map. Best to wait until the crash-and-burn fires have been extinguished for this scenario to work for investors.

This cycle keeps repeating: One huge issue is the amount of lead-time from land purchase, to zoning, to approval, to building permit, to completion.

So any small error in anticipating the future demand, lead time, interest rates, or overall economy, will result in brand new homes that don't move. And unfinished shells that sit abandoned. New mantra: price, Price, PRICE.

New houses selling for less than the same house just a few years older. Builders are lowering prices (and offering interest buydowns and other perks) for the same house-type, in the same development, significantly BELOW what sold just 2 or 3 years earlier. That means current comps will kill the chances for an earlier buyer/owner to sell/unload.

This is not all doom-and-gloom--there always will be great opportunities in your local market. It's simply harder now to locate them.

What are you seeing in your area?

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Stuart UdisPro Member
Attorney · Philadelphia · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
1w

Just look at Toll Brothers versus Lennar over the last few years. Toll has performed far better, and its homebuilding margins have been stronger. Its average sale price in 2025 was about $960,000 compared to Lennar's average sale price which I believe was under $400,000.

Toll sold its apartment platform. It still builds condos in affluent areas and participates more selectively in build to rent but it's doubled down in recent years on its core business, which is serving affluent households in desirable locations, often where it is harder to build.

I am extremely skeptical of a lot of the build to rent development occurring. I understand the concept, but builders need to build to generate revenue. I see a lot going up where approvals are easy, predictable and quick. That also means the next builder can come in and do the same thing. Easier development does not necessarily make for a good investment.

Tell me you are building for higher earning younger households who recognize the concept of a starter home no longer makes sense, and you are speaking my language. People are forming families later, having children later and carrying student debt. Renting longer can give them time to save and figure out where they ultimately want to buy and send their kids to school. To me that's a valid investment strategy and development thesis that stands up to the realities of today's housing market.

But when I hear, “We are building for families earning $70,000 because they cannot afford to buy,” I would run for the hills. What rent can that household actually afford, and how much more competing inventory is coming? The fact that someone cannot afford to buy does not automatically make building a rental house for them a sound investment. That's the flawed thesis I am seeing more and more which deserves far greater scrutiny but its a good story and attracts equity. Alternatively, many of these builders in lower barrier markets are turning around and selling these homes individually to novice investors who think they are getting a good deal because incremental mark up in pricing that's turned around and given as concessions makes these home purchases seem like a bargain.

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  • Stuart UdisPro Member
    Attorney · Philadelphia · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1w

    Just look at Toll Brothers versus Lennar over the last few years. Toll has performed far better, and its homebuilding margins have been stronger. Its average sale price in 2025 was about $960,000 compared to Lennar's average sale price which I believe was under $400,000.

    Toll sold its apartment platform. It still builds condos in affluent areas and participates more selectively in build to rent but it's doubled down in recent years on its core business, which is serving affluent households in desirable locations, often where it is harder to build.

    I am extremely skeptical of a lot of the build to rent development occurring. I understand the concept, but builders need to build to generate revenue. I see a lot going up where approvals are easy, predictable and quick. That also means the next builder can come in and do the same thing. Easier development does not necessarily make for a good investment.

    Tell me you are building for higher earning younger households who recognize the concept of a starter home no longer makes sense, and you are speaking my language. People are forming families later, having children later and carrying student debt. Renting longer can give them time to save and figure out where they ultimately want to buy and send their kids to school. To me that's a valid investment strategy and development thesis that stands up to the realities of today's housing market.

    But when I hear, “We are building for families earning $70,000 because they cannot afford to buy,” I would run for the hills. What rent can that household actually afford, and how much more competing inventory is coming? The fact that someone cannot afford to buy does not automatically make building a rental house for them a sound investment. That's the flawed thesis I am seeing more and more which deserves far greater scrutiny but its a good story and attracts equity. Alternatively, many of these builders in lower barrier markets are turning around and selling these homes individually to novice investors who think they are getting a good deal because incremental mark up in pricing that's turned around and given as concessions makes these home purchases seem like a bargain.

  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    1w

    Here is my real world experience not hypothetical.

    1. 90 home project in Oregon I bought the dirt and did all the improvements and built the vertical. Lennar bought the 75 lot parcel right next to me. We were building at the same time.. They wanted to buy my lots and offered a JV of sorts.. I could not even buy my materials for what they could produce the house for. Their pricing and speed allows same sq ft to be far less than those of us that do not have the machine and purchasing power. They built and sold the 75 houses as while i was able to get 25 out of the ground and sold. I had to do a mini Toll Brothers product.. Lennar bare bones nothing added no changing anything etc etc. I went the other way upgraded allowed changes as long as not structural and was able to sell same sq ft for 100 to 200k MORE to that buyer that wants what they want its different product no doubt. On many levels you can see the quality of construction and neighborhood now that they have some years behind them no offense to first time buyers but many just dont take care of their homes like the more affluent buyer.. And it shows.. So while it took us longer we made very tidy margins building through covid etc.. Now to be fair last year of the project when I was down to 6 homes.. it was much tougher to sell as rates for sure impacted and I was left with my family 2 story homes all my custom single levels sold at CO without fail and for big dollars.

    2. Current market at least the markets I am providing capital to land developers for entitlements we are doing this In and around DC market.. Each project we have done ( 3 total so far) has had multiple buyers as in 5 to 10 offers. On the 3 we have 2 have gone full cycle IE our builder bought them and we cashed out these went to Toll Brothers.. the last one is a 280 lot project with a lot of attached units this one is going to Lennar ( who has already released 2 mil to us on a 18 mil purchase) And closes in December.. So while its noted up in the thread about development and lead time. Most of the builders only buy when all entitlements are done and they will pay higher prices this way the only lag they have is in the actual horizontal before they go vertical.. And in the preceding 90 days before they close they put signs on the project and start there marketing.

    3. SunBelt I have one in Atlanta metro that RVN is doing a lot take down.. they buy 10 lots a quarter and so far have executed each quarter these are finished lots.

    4. Central Oregon we also did one in Bend Oregon that Lennar's apartment arm was buying half the dirt and townhouses on the other half.. On this one they actually put up many millions but secured it with a DT/mortgage we came in with the gap our developer needed to get a 7 mil bond and used cross collateral and semi complicated agreement with lennar.. Lennar actually started construction on the apartments before they owned the land and before all the infrastructure was completed. This is common you take a risk on CO but its a calculated Risk. this one paid off in August when Lennar took down the entire site.

    5. Lastly a 650 parcel project West Side of Portland Metro this one I optioned 40 acres and a large Regional that just got bought by Japanese firm bought the golf course that bordered us on 2 sides and did a land assemblage including my 40 acre option.. I needed to sell to them since the offsite improvements turned out to be north of 25 million. This offsite work is in progress and we got a 1 mil paydown already so confident that this will close in full regardless of economy or interest rates. These guys build basically same product maybe a notch or two higher than Lennar. Will see if F up Oregon can get its act together how well they will do.

    So while some of the smaller or regional builders may have lag times the biggest from what I see are closing on inventory on a per needs basis. Also we have to keep in mind these companies can walk from

  • Matthew MorrowBusiness Member
    Investor · PA - NY - NJ · Member since 2019 · 916 posts · 320 votes
    1w

    @Marc Winter we have that discussion with investors too, and it's pretty clear new construction is almost never a comparable investment buy for what most investors are looking for. Unless it's built to suit or you're developing it yourself, it's hard to make a new build work for traditional investing purposes. Your point on comps is a good one too. When the builder is cutting price on the same model down the street, that's tough for anyone who bought a couple of years earlier. Good thread.

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