Do you want a recession?

Rental Property Investor · Gulfport, MS · Member since 2018 · 113 posts · 133 votes

There are always posts about whether or not a recession is coming, or whether or not someone should wait for one to invest. Instead of that question, I’ll ask .... do you want a recession to occur in the next 12 months? Are you hopeful for one and positioned to take advantage of it, or are you over extended and fearful of one?

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Mike Dymski

Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes

BP is the only place where you will find real estate investors wishing for a reduction in their property values.

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Bobby Stener
Rental Property Investor · SF Bay Area · Member since 2018 · 49 posts · 54 votes
7y
@Caleb L. The Greek 10 year was higher than ours this morning!
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Caleb L.
Investor · Georgetown, Tx. · Member since 2019 · 149 posts · 69 votes
7y
@Bobby Stener Don't really care about what happened this morning on the Greek world of bonds. I'm a long-term investor, not a trader of bonds.

In terms of economic stability, America could be A LOT better. To say the least. I haven't steadied the Greek economy, so I can't comment on their economy.

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Pat L.
Rental Property Investor · Upstate, NY · Member since 2012 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
7y
@Jay Hinrichs

just for fun I sent you a PM with a list of the properties currently listed. Yes some are redeemed but its amazing how many great ones are not. Often the venue will be filled with people standing room only yet only 10-12 will actually bid & some on many. Gone are the days when we could pick up several & have them flipped before we took title.
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Caleb L.
Investor · Georgetown, Tx. · Member since 2019 · 149 posts · 69 votes
7y
Originally posted by @Joe Splitrock:
Why would someone would want a recession? That most certainly means job loss, increase in crime, property devaluation, stock market instability and everyone will lose net worth.
I know those of you who want it to be like like 2010 again are thinking "buying opportunity". What you all forget is the hardship that so many people had to endure during that period of our history.
There is also some naivety when people believe they would seize a buying opportunity. In economic hard times, there are very few real estate buyers because fear and economic despair holds most people back. Only people with a heavy cash position can truly profit from a recession or depression, but they take a major risk to get that reward.
Just a moderators reminder too, please leave politics out of this and any discussion.

I agree. Recessions do hurt people and can be devastating! I don't hope for a recession UNLESS America is getting to bad and it will get worse! I also agree with you that people think that a down market is a buying opportunity, which it can be if you can get the bank to give you a mortgage while there going through a crises. Good luck!
The next recession will hurt like there's no tomorrow, but, it's worth it. Just like when you avoid fixing a repair on a house for a few years that will only cost a fee hundred now. It will come back costing you thousands! Which is what America has been doing, and we don't learn from our mistakes. Which is why we're here.
But, for the financially wise people out there, they will be fine. If over 50% of Americans were financially wise, we wouldn't have these bad problems so often.

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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
7y
Originally posted by @Pat L.:
@Jay Hinrichs

just for fun I sent you a PM with a list of the properties currently listed. Yes some are redeemed but its amazing how many great ones are not. Often the venue will be filled with people standing room only yet only 10-12 will actually bid & some on many. Gone are the days when we could pick up several & have them flipped before we took title.
I hear ya.. its that way at all auctions and sherrifs sales and trustee sales.. many observers and only a few bidders.. when we did this for a living the key was to bid on the very first ones coming up.. many people were nervous then by the end they fear of missing out and they bid up stuff way past what we would pay.. it was not uncommon for us to buy north of 100 properties in one day.

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Bobby Stener
Rental Property Investor · SF Bay Area · Member since 2018 · 49 posts · 54 votes
7y
@Caleb L. You should consider looking into bonds if you do indeed think troubled days are ahead. In a deflationary environment a 2.5% 30 year is going to look amazing in yield.
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Frank Jiang
Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2014 · 592 posts · 765 votes
7y
Originally posted by @Joe Splitrock:
Why would someone would want a recession? That most certainly means job loss, increase in crime, property devaluation, stock market instability and everyone will lose net worth.
I know those of you who want it to be like like 2010 again are thinking "buying opportunity". What you all forget is the hardship that so many people had to endure during that period of our history.
There is also some naivety when people believe they would seize a buying opportunity. In economic hard times, there are very few real estate buyers because fear and economic despair holds most people back. Only people with a heavy cash position can truly profit from a recession or depression, but they take a major risk to get that reward.
Just a moderators reminder too, please leave politics out of this and any discussion.

To paraphrase The Big Short, for every 1% the unemployment figure goes up, 40,000 people die.

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Jay Star
Specialist · La Palma, CA (90623) · Member since 2019 · 2 posts · 2 votes
7y
We are in need of one !
People are getting very comfortable in California with minimum wage at almost $15 by 2022
Once a Recession happens consumers will realize they should be spending more wisely.
I feel like millennials will start shying always from ‘hype fads’ to create a more humble teenager to adult
1 Reply
David Greiner
Rental Property Investor · Ann Arbor MI · Member since 2018 · 58 posts · 43 votes
7y
@Joe Splitrock
We live in the most prosperous country during the most prosperous time in history. Everyone has a computer. In their pocket...
Why is the depression rate so high?
1 Reply
Tanner Marsey
Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2017 · 439 posts · 578 votes
7y
I think the majority of people have this crazy idea that they’re just going to crush it during a recession. Look at the last one. Almost EVERYONE was hurting. Not sure where the idea that your average, small time investor with a few properties is going to flourish during a major down turn came from. Everyone has been winning for years now. I’d love to see that go on forever.
4 Reply
Steve B.
Engineer · Portland, OR · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
7y
@Cole Raiford the problem with trying to “taking advantage of a recession for bargains” is that no one knows where the bottom is, thus most would-be investors will miss their window to buy.
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Joe A.Business Member
Realtor · Waco, TX · Member since 2018 · 75 posts · 80 votes
7y
A full on recession like the last one (2008)... No! A "cooling off" period... Yes. I wouldn't wish hard times like that on anyone. Just because real estate investors can get bargains, doesn't mean it's what's good for our fellow citizens. Why would anyone wish for their neighbor to suffer so they can prosper?
A "cooling off" period would be beneficial, though, so we can avoid another recession like 2008.
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Twana RasoulBusiness Member
Real Estate Agent · San Diego, CA · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
7y
@Cole Raiford most on here will probably say they do want a recession but most have no idea what a recession entails. nobody really knows exactly what the next recession will be like and I’m willing to bet that most on here will not be able to take advantage of a downturn. Also, stock market alone could tank and nothing necessarily has to happen to real estate prices.
Best of luck!
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Michael Masters
Rental Property Investor · Westport, CT · Member since 2017 · 176 posts · 183 votes
7y
I'd prefer a nice little increase in inflation so I can increase my rents with my main expenses (mortgages) staying flat! Nothing too crazy, just like 5% or so!
0 Reply
Jason Zimmer
Member since 2019 · 45 posts · 11 votes
7y
I don't know who would ever want a recession. We shouldn't prey on the economy to collapse because it has unforeseen consequences.
3 Reply
Pat L.
Rental Property Investor · Upstate, NY · Member since 2012 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
7y
Originally posted by @David Greiner:
@Joe Splitrock
We live in the most prosperous country during the most prosperous time in history. Everyone has a computer. In their pocket...
Why is the depression rate so high?

We see this so much with our younger tenants who are overcome with 'social media triggered depression syndrome'.
In fact we had one beautiful girl OD on antihistamines. EMT's broke the door down & took her to the psych ward. Thankfully she had nothing stronger to take.

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Will GastonPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Columbia, SC · Member since 2010 · 1k+ posts · 2k+ votes
7y
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JD MartinBusiness Member
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Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
7y
Originally posted by @Jason Zimmer:
I don't know who would ever want a recession. We shouldn't prey on the economy to collapse because it has unforeseen consequences.

Exactly. Wishing for a recession or a depression is just crazy talk. There's a lot of collateral damage in any recession. Yes, it clears out the cobwebs, so to speak, but it takes a lot of people down in the process. It also is not knowable except in the rear-view mirror, and a lot of people who think they're going to kill it will miss the boat because they really don't know where the bottom is.

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Joe SplitrockPro Member
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Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
7y
Originally posted by @David Greiner:
@Joe Splitrock
We live in the most prosperous country during the most prosperous time in history. Everyone has a computer. In their pocket...
Why is the depression rate so high?

That is a little random. I am assuming you have a point here that ties back to recession?
Prosperity is relative. The poorest people in the United States today have a higher quality of life than middle class people 100 years ago. They live like kings compared to someone 200 hundred years ago. But nobody compares themselves to their ancestors. My mom grew up in the 1950's and they were very poor, but she told me, they never thought they were poor because everyone around them lived the same life style. It is only by comparison that you determine your life looks bad.
That computer in your pocket is destroying meaningful human relationships and creating unrealistic standards. It is also substituting for human thought. They say that millennial are the first generation that doesn't know how to change a car tire. Google has replaced basic knowledge and thought.
I don't think a recession will help reduce suicide rates, but I agree there is a problem.
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Account Closed
Rental Property Investor · Odessa, FL · Member since 2017 · 145 posts · 113 votes
7y
If I could have a recession done by a push of a button, I'd probably push it. Consequences could be devastating but I'm willing to take that risk.
0 Reply
Michael Masters
Rental Property Investor · Westport, CT · Member since 2017 · 176 posts · 183 votes
7y
Originally posted by @David Greiner:
@Joe Splitrock
We live in the most prosperous country during the most prosperous time in history. Everyone has a computer. In their pocket...
Why is the depression rate so high?

You answered your own question: people are depressed because everyone has a computer in their pocket. When I take the my dog to the park I purposely leave my cell phone at home and just enjoy some quiet time.
3 Reply
Christopher Brainard
Rental Property Investor · Rockwall, TX · Member since 2015 · 891 posts · 701 votes
7y
Recession? Yes please! Sooner the better!
Recessions are periods of great wealth transition for those who can take advantage of the market.
-Christopher
1 Reply
Trevor Scheiderer
Rental Property Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2019 · 58 posts · 24 votes
7y
The nice thing about recession is that you are able to live through it, business as usual with cash flow. The hard part is if you have luxury units that demand a premium. Those are the units that will get hit first. Then, from there, its time to start buying in bulk because deals will be easier to find on the foreclosure market, if that is the case. Looking forward to being able to say that we lived through it and made money at the same time. Happy investing!
2 Reply
Andy Brown
Rental Property Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2017 · 70 posts · 115 votes
7y
@JD Martin
Agreed. And I'm always amazed that there is this sentiment on BP that if a recession comes it will not negatively affect us--only "them". Like the whole nation will have layoffs and financial desperation to such an extent people are giving houses away but somehow our lives as "enlightened" real estate investors will be untouched financially. As much as I love BP, I've spent enough time on here to realize there's a fair bit of chest-pounding and most people are not remotely prepared for such an event. But let these conversations serve as a good reminder for all of us to get our houses in order--in every sense of the term.
13 Reply
Allan Szlafrok
Rental Property Investor · Long Island, NY · Member since 2015 · 490 posts · 301 votes
7y
No i dont want to see millions of people thrown out of work and hear stories about people killing themselves and their families because they cant support them just so i can pick up a few properties cheaper than i would otherwise. People forget about the human toll of financial downturns which many families struggle to recover from for years and years after the GDP readings say the recession is over. And a lot of people here who were too scared to buy after the last downturn will probably be too scared next time around too so i don't understand the folks cheering for our nations economy to collapse. Theres money to be made in real estate in every stage of the economic cycle and in every corner of the country. Maybe find another strategy if its come to the point where you need an economic collapse in order to make money. If you cant make money in this stage of the cycle go find another job this might not be for you.
P.S. Not coming after anyone directly over here but in general the people rooting for a recession need to do some soul searching. The world is way bigger than your wallet. Dont forget that.
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