Is Scott Trench Wrong? Retirement Plans vs Real Estate

Is Scott Trench Wrong? Retirement Plans vs Real Estate

Rental Property Investor · Edwardsville, IL · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 15 votes

I just finished Scott Trench's book "Set for Life" and let me start by saying it is a awesome read and I fully recommend it to anyone and everyone.

In the book Scott bashes on typical retirement plans such as roth IRAs, 401k plans, and etc. and considers them a foolish investment that majority of Americans fall victim to every day. (he does dive into this idea more in the appendix about to take advantage of retirement plans properly and does not bash them completely but this is not the point of this post). 

I want to give two scenarios and get the opinions of others about which way is more effective at reaching financial independence. 

1.) For example, I am 22 years old with a college degree and an above average income of 55k a year (very similar to the income range Scott references in his book). Unlike many of my peers, I worked through college, lived at home, and currently have no debt to my name. My company offers a 100% 401k match that can either be a traditional or roth. The only thing is that if you choose roth 401k then the match will be put into a separate traditional 401k. With the max individual 401k contribution at $18k/year, I could potential put in 18k/yr and match 18k/yr from the company combining to a total savings of 36k/yr. 

I have learned that 401Ks throughout history have returned 8-10% (obviously with some variance and this post isn't to argue this return). From a simple spread sheet and figuring a 8% annual return on a 36k annuity, I would have roughly 773k in 13years which would return 54k per year and would be "financially independent" based on my current salary as this would yield $61,900/yr in interest minus the 10% early withdrawal penalty.

The downfall with this approach is that if I max this plan out then my take home pay is largely cut and hurts my ability to save and invest in real estate (which is my ultimate goal)

2.) Do not contribute to the 401k plan and save 15-20k per year to purchase buy and hold rental properties?

*I am stuck between these two because I understand all of the upsides of real estate investing but I see and immediate 100% return on my 18k/year "investment" with the 401k not including the 8-10% return the market could bring. I would love to hear peoples opinions on these approaches as my plan will start in 2018. I would also love to hear Scott's opinion on this (so fingers crossed that he reads this) as I am a full believer that people in general and especially millennials like myself are very under-educated in the subject of personal finance. 

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Scott TrenchPro Member
Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 6k+ votes
9y

@Kurt K. I wrote a book on how to go from $0 to several hundred thousand dollars in after tax wealth and several thousand dollars in passive income. The book is aimed at people that start in median income jobs with little to no net worth. 

I achieved this exact result. Prior to writing the book. 

Obviously, I intend to perpetually increase my income, keep my expenses low, and continue acquiring rental properties. Yes, the book is an additional income stream. I plan to continue writing, building BiggerPockets and other businesses, and continue to acquire rental properties. 

FYI, I close on my 8th unit at the end of next week. I still have not received a dime from my book launch (royalties paid quarterly), nor used the potential income from the book to help qualify for the property. At the time the book launched, I owned about $800K in real estate, and after this property closes will own about $1.2M in real estate, generating approximately $110K annually in gross rent, and approximately $40,000 in free cash flow (knock off $6,600 if you don't count the market rent that I pay currently to my own business). I have over six figures in liquidity as well. I will absolutely intend to continue my profession of building BiggerPockets, writing about real estate investment and wealth building, and yes, book writing, going forward into the future, so long as there are people that find value in what I produce.

The journey outlined in Set for Life is how to go from a standing start with little to no assets to a position similar to what I am in currently. After that, the journey is up to you. There are far better books for going from a few hundred thousand and a few thousand per month in passive income to millions of dollars in net worth, those are books for people in advanced stages!

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  • Investor · Kirkland, WA · Member since 2017 · 310 posts · 271 votes
    9y

    In addition to the inability for one to say one way is better or the other is better based on long term volatility in RoR...  everyone please remember the times change. Laws change, attitudes change, the new generation comes up and they change rules.

    Most people in the US these days don't stay at the same employer for life. For $18,000 free matching funds, I'd take that all day long assuming I'd be at a new employer in 5-10 years. When you move you just roll the old 401k to a self directed IRA and then buy real property.

    Best advice is to do the 401k and real estate as well because then you have options. You need to have different buckets of funds, Roth IRA, real estate, gold/art, cash, notes, etc etc. otherwise you're vulnerable to fewer changes in law.

    Like a pilot, they always give themselves an alternate, "if this happens then do x, but if y happens then do z, not x!"  A pilot always knows where their nearest landing strip is in case they need to land NOW.

    There's no telling what will happen to tax rates or the tax treatment of 401ks or real estate over ones entire lifetime.

    There are growing debates now on a possible cap or even scrapping the mortgage interest deduction...  some say "that can't happen", really? Can't?  Why get fire or car insurance then, my house can't burn down it's just can't.  I won't tie my shoe laces because I can't trip, I just can't.  Actually yes, I do double bag my groceries, thank you!

    What if in the year 2050 congress does a 1 year 401k distribution tax holiday and there's no tax for that year?  If you have no 401k you're out of position to benefit.  

    And how would you factor that or 15000 other "maybes" into an analysis of "should I 401k or not?"  When a problem isn't analyzable by the numbers you have to approach it with creativity, logic and common sense.

    What if in 2025 the cap on contributions is drastically lowered?  If you didn't get started now, by then it's too late to be a relevant option to produce long term return.

    ROTH iras are relatively new compared to 401ks.  Young people might not know they didn't always exist.  Well, I don't assume they can't go away just as easily, what if new ones are not allowed after 2020 and you don't have one?

    ROTH contributions phase out when your income goes high enough, so if you don't get started young you can't once your 40 and married and making 400k/yr.  I didn't know about the phase out when I was 22.

    My advice is be very careful when you rule something out, in any area of life.  You might be ruling it out with less than all the current information, and I guarantee you're ruling it out not knowing what could happen 20-30-40 years from now.

  • Oxnard, CA · Member since 2017 · 15 posts · 23 votes
    9y

    Hey @Cole Hagen,

    I have yet to see anyone mention the Roth Conversion Ladder. It'll allow you to access your 401k funds well before 59 and 1/2. Just because all of the CPA's posting on this thread are telling you that there is no way around the 10% early withdrawal penalty doesn't make it true. 

    If they're giving you 18k "for free", take it!

    Check out the ladder, there is plenty of info out there on it. The only thing to keep in mind is the government could decide to remove it at anytime. 

    Good luck! 

  • Rental Property Investor · Edwardsville, IL · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 15 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Pete Fiannaca:

    If the match is 100% up to the current federal max, then I would be maxing that out for sure. Even if you take cash out early, the 10% penalty is peanuts compared to the "bonus" match your company is providing.

    Something else to think about... If your 401 provider let's you borrow against your plan, then it sounds like after 5 years or so, you'd have a nice little line of credit in the making.

    @Pete Fiannaca This is what I have had in the back of my mind every since I began learning about REI. I am going to give a very basic example below and I would like to hear your and everyone else opinions with any flaws or hiccups that I may run into.

    1. Say that by maxing the 401k and receiving a 7% return,  I accumulate around 500k in 8-10 yers depending on the market.  

    2. 3 Bed 2 Bath houses in my area can easily be attained for $100k and rent for $900-1000

    3. Could I simply withdraw 100k per year after taking the 10% penalty plus 28% tax rate (currently) and buy the SFH with cash? Say I want to make 96k/year cash flow or 8000/mo. Could I hypothetically do this 8 times, own 8 $100k, and cashflor $8000/mo much faster than waiting for my 401k to accumulate to a value that produces 96k/year?

    *I obviously understand that a property that cashflows 1000/year has other expenses (taxes, cap x, repairs etc.) but for this example I am excluding these for the simplicity.

  • Rental Property Investor · Edwardsville, IL · Member since 2017 · 18 posts · 15 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    Hey @Cole Hagen,

    I have yet to see anyone mention the Roth Conversion Ladder. It'll allow you to access your 401k funds well before 59 and 1/2. Just because all of the CPA's posting on this thread are telling you that there is no way around the 10% early withdrawal penalty doesn't make it true. 

    If they're giving you 18k "for free", take it!

    Check out the ladder, there is plenty of info out there on it. The only thing to keep in mind is the government could decide to remove it at anytime. 

    Good luck! 

    Account Closed I have heard of this ladder but do not know anything about it. I knew that I had heard it either on a podcast, book, or somewhere. Glad you mentioned it again, I need to do a bit more research on this topic to figure out exactly how to use it for my situation and advantage.

  • Joel OwensBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Canton, GA · Member since 2010 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
    9y

    I am not big on retirement funds that you can't touch until forever.

    I invest for today.

    My situation is different in that when I close a commercial transaction for commission I can make 80,000,150,000,200,000 at a time in money.

    I am 42 years old so not in the 20's! lol

    Inflation keeps going up so 50k a year income for someone's job is actually not much at all these days. Median income nationally is about 54,000.

  • Joe SplitrockPro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Scott Davidson:

    @Joe Splitrock A couple items on the analysis. The 20k is not equal. One is pretax, one is post tax. Additionally, the average return on S&P is 7% and the S&P averages a 2% dividend payout. 

    Another consideration, actively managed or property manager? I ask because one is truly passive and I think we all know rentals are not 100% hands off.

    Other points of consideration are risk adjusted return and exit value as well taxability over the lifetime of the investment. The rentals may or may not be a taxable write off depending on income.

    All this is to say that I think there are too many variables to get an accurate picture of which is better or worse based on a financial analysis. We could all quibble all day on some of the variables.

    As a hedge, if I was able to get a free $18k a year, I would take it. If saving the $18k/year precluded me from investing in real estate, I would do a deeper dive. As others have said, there's no reason not to do both.

    We could spend an entire thread debating the variables here. My simulation was meant to be high level. 

    The average return of course depends on when you buy. I just took VTSMX which 20 years ago traded for $21.50 per share and today is $60.85, so the $20,000 would be worth $56,604 which is under 6% annual return. The yield today on it is 1.78%, which you correctly pointed out I neglected to include. Lets say we adjust to 8% and assumed the dividend is reinvested. Now at the end of 30 years you have $172,628 from your stock investment. Still well behind what you would have investing in rental properties. Also keep in mind that I don't reinvest the rental income in my example. Assuming that was put back into other properties, your return would go up exponentially. Even just mortgage pay down would give you 4.5% on that money.

    The 50% expense assumes property management, repairs, CAPEX, vacancy, insurance, some utilities. None of my houses run anywhere near 50% expense. I was trying to be conservative.

    Taxation wasn't really talked about in my example, but with depreciation and interest, you could count on a tax loss. At some point when rents increase and the interest deduction goes away, then you have tax consideration. Probably a good idea to refinance to pull cash out or exchange into a higher value property at that point. The OP income is low enough that he could take the loss. Lots of variables, so in the interest of simplicity I didn't get into taxes. Fair to say it would work to the OP's advantage. ROTH IRA has limitations on high income earners too.

    The biggest factor that drives people to the stock market is simplicity. Most people are scared to death of owning rental property. It is that fear that keeps so many people out and helps make it profitable for the rest of us. I see more risk in the stock market, because I don't control the companies. With rental properties, I can pick location, tenants, improvements, etc. For those who want autopilot, then index funds are the way to go.

    If you consider it objectively, it is hard to deny that rental properties provide a much better return. 

  • Joe SplitrockPro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Cole Hagen:
    Originally posted by @Pete Fiannaca:

    If the match is 100% up to the current federal max, then I would be maxing that out for sure. Even if you take cash out early, the 10% penalty is peanuts compared to the "bonus" match your company is providing.

    Something else to think about... If your 401 provider let's you borrow against your plan, then it sounds like after 5 years or so, you'd have a nice little line of credit in the making.

    @Pete Fiannaca This is what I have had in the back of my mind every since I began learning about REI. I am going to give a very basic example below and I would like to hear your and everyone else opinions with any flaws or hiccups that I may run into.

    1. Say that by maxing the 401k and receiving a 7% return,  I accumulate around 500k in 8-10 yers depending on the market.  

    2. 3 Bed 2 Bath houses in my area can easily be attained for $100k and rent for $900-1000

    3. Could I simply withdraw 100k per year after taking the 10% penalty plus 28% tax rate (currently) and buy the SFH with cash? Say I want to make 96k/year cash flow or 8000/mo. Could I hypothetically do this 8 times, own 8 $100k, and cashflor $8000/mo much faster than waiting for my 401k to accumulate to a value that produces 96k/year?

    *I obviously understand that a property that cashflows 1000/year has other expenses (taxes, cap x, repairs etc.) but for this example I am excluding these for the simplicity.

    No, you don't want to pay cash for properties when you are trying to accumulate wealth. Leverage gives you a better return. You can take $80K and buy four houses. Cash flow is lower but return on investment is higher. Putting more cash into the deal just reduces your return rate. You are better off leaving that extra cash in an index fund collecting 7% than paying down 4.5% debt. I am in favor of paying off properties in the future as you move towards retirement, but not while accumulating wealth.

  • Jonathan KlemmBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Contractor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    9y

    If it's a 100% match all the way up, that should be a no brainer. You can almost always take loans out on your 401k at decent rates. I have done it myself. I am investing $18k per year to my 401k, maxing out my roth IRA at $5.5k per year, and investing in real estate.....many people on BP are all in on only real estate, but I prefer to have my money diversified - to each their own.

  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    Hey @Cole Hagen,

    I have yet to see anyone mention the Roth Conversion Ladder. It'll allow you to access your 401k funds well before 59 and 1/2. Just because all of the CPA's posting on this thread are telling you that there is no way around the 10% early withdrawal penalty doesn't make it true. 

    If they're giving you 18k "for free", take it!

    Check out the ladder, there is plenty of info out there on it. The only thing to keep in mind is the government could decide to remove it at anytime. 

    Good luck! 

     I mentioned it 3 pages ago ... and I agree, Roth conversion ladder is a good way to go ;)

  • Real Estate Agent · Media, PA · Member since 2017 · 361 posts · 250 votes
    9y

    @Joel Owens come on man, you're a smart guy...you know that "can't touch until forever" is not true at all. You can borrow against it, conversion ladder, withdraw and take a penalty etc. The vilification of tax-advantaged savings accounts in the real estate world is overkill. They are absolutely useful and while real estate is more controllable, the tax benefits, company matching and utilization options of 401ks, IRAs, HSAs etc make a very strong case for them in conjunction with RE investing.

  • Investor · Minnetonka, MN · Member since 2016 · 123 posts · 86 votes
    9y

    It is great to put money into a 401k (or Roth) and get a great company match on it. What is not cool is if you can't keep the match money if you leave the firm before 5 or 10 years is up. Vesting can be the rust on the golden handcuffs.

  • Investor · Saint Paul, MN · Member since 2015 · 663 posts · 512 votes
    9y
    Everyone is forgetttng here that if you take out a 401k loan and change jobs the loan is due right away. Not very smart. I wouldn't do it.
  • NYC, NY · Member since 2016 · 619 posts · 456 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Scott S.:

    It is great to put money into a 401k (or Roth) and get a great company match on it. What is not cool is if you can't keep the match money if you leave the firm before 5 or 10 years is up. Vesting can be the rust on the golden handcuffs.

    A law was created (Pension Protection Act of 2006) that limited vesting schedules to 6 yr maximum with some % of vesting required to start by yr #2 or 100% vesting after 3 yr if the employer doesn't allow for a gradual vesting schedule in the first 2 yrs. 

    As of 2015, most employers have shorter schedules (5 years or less.) And about 40% of employer's have 100% immediate vesting.  

    All the more reason to check and know your company's plans. 

    If there's a vesting schedule, you gain non forgettable rights to the employer contribution over that time.  And that too is important to remember since each year of employment brings you that much closer to that full pot.

  • NYC, NY · Member since 2016 · 619 posts · 456 votes
    9y
    Originally posted by @Marcus Johnson:

    Everyone is forgetttng here that if you take out a 401k loan and change jobs the loan is due right away. Not very smart. I wouldn't do it.

    This is not always true.  Some plans allow a separated employee to continue to make payments after separation.  It depends on the plan setup. 

  • NYC, NY · Member since 2016 · 619 posts · 456 votes
    9y

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  • Investor · Saint Louis, MO · Member since 2013 · 24 posts · 21 votes
    9y

    Hey Cole, I think taking the match is a no brainer no matter how you structure it. I especially likes James outlook as he pointed out that even if you took an early withdrawal penalty, you would still essentially get an 80% match. Your concern was that you are putting too much of your income into your retirement accounts and not being able to save for a rental. The most simple way for your first property is an owner occupied duplex, triplex, or 4-plex. You can buy these properties with FHA financing and a very low down payment. You could buy an owner occupied multifamily every couple of years using this financing (as long as you refi out the FHA loan to a conventional). I see you are in Edwardsville, very close to St. Louis where I live and there are desirable areas with these types of properties around. You might not cash flow very much but you would be able to keep your own housing costs very low or 0. The multifamily market here is very hot and many are sold off market but if you keep searching and networking, you will find it. I have used an excellent portfolio lender in St. Louis for the last 7 years or so, they have a location in your area, get ahold of me and I'll refer you. You are in a great position Cole!

  • Investor · Tracy, CA · Member since 2015 · 58 posts · 13 votes
    9y

    Don't believe the 8-10% bull. With that said, always take the max match (free money!!!). By passing on the match, you're essentially passing on the only guaranteed return on the table. The best part is it's a guaranteed 100% return! If I were you, I would max out my contribution to the 401k, pile into a low cost index fund, and once you have a nice little nest egg in there, pull out enough via loan to purchase a property. The beautiful part about 401k loans is that you're paying the interest to yourself! The company only gets whatever loan processing fee they may charge. Just my two cents.

  • Rental Property Investor · Elk River, MN · Member since 2016 · 102 posts · 10 votes
    9y

    HI @Cole Hagen ,    I work in this field as advisor to the advisors in retirement vehicles.

    1. Yes, you take the match. This does not hurt your REI investing it DOUBLES it for the future.

    2. Call your 401k Administrator and see if they all "in service distributions" meaning can you move this money while still working at the job. If so you can roll it to an IRA (no tax hits) and use it for investing. That is what I am doing.

    3. Your 8% is a far cry from reality.  Another large factor is something called "sequence of returns" which means if you buy at the top of the market (like right now) and your investment drop by 50% out of the gate then you need a 100% gain to get back.  Our saying is losses hurt you more than gains help you.  But since you are young you can ride the ups and down easily over time.  

    4. If they match 100% and it costs you a 10% penalty to take it out before 59 1/2 and you pay 30% and taxes on 10k withdrawal that means your still up 60% on the free money your company gave you to invest in real estate.

    5. Long term a rental purchased right will beat a traditional investments.  Because they allow a guaranteed 4-5% withdrawal which means on 1Million it will give you 40k a year.  Can you make more than 40k a year profit on a rentals if you had 1 Million to invest.  Answer? Of course you can!

    So essentially @Scott Trench is correct these are just some specifics on how to do it.  
    Feel free to reach out with any questions Cole.

    Jeremy

  • Realtor · Olathe, KS · Member since 2017 · 37 posts · 13 votes
    9y

    @Cole Hagen Sounds like a great deal. Just curious though is this a place that you like working at and can really see yourself in 13 or more years? If so that's cool! On the flip side I'm just imagining how much I would dread everyday working at a company I hated with only that carrot hanging in front of me.

  • Realtor · Olathe, KS · Member since 2017 · 37 posts · 13 votes
    9y

    @Scott Trench I just got your book in the mail today and am already about half way through. Smart motivating info and material. I like your style and candor throughout the topics. 

    In regards to your reply you said, "...will own about $1.2M in real estate, generating approximately $110K annually in gross rent, and approximately $40,000 in free cash flow (knock off $6,600 if you don't count the market rent that I pay currently to my own business)." I am still trying to figure out and learn Cash Flow. 110K gross is obviously before expenses, but where does the free 40K-6.6K come from? Is the 40K an annual figure and is it coming out of the 110K? Thanks!

  • Rental Property Investor · Seminole, FL · Member since 2014 · 85 posts · 68 votes
    9y
    That's an amazing match! I'd contribute the full 18k and get a side hustle that could generate additional income for real estate in the interim. Do you have any other skills that you could leverage to earn more? Another thing I would do is negotiate pay after a year of proving your worth. Think 10-15%. In this market for my area, deals are thin. So if I were in your situation, I'd get a loan from Family in the event that I found a great deal which for me is 10-15% CoC.
  • San Antonio, TX · Member since 2009 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Cole Hagen It's not an either or proposition. You should have both just in case something goes sour down the road. For both real estate and paper assets, there are precautions you can take to manage your risk. I won't go into the different types of portfolio theories for both asset classes but they are there. At the end of the day, you have to have a back-up plan just in case. The wealthy have both paper assets as well as real estate. You should do the same. Take the match. Hope this helps! 

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