Bitcoin is 10k again what are you going to do now?
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Rental Property Investor · Concord, NC · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
7yI'd sooner rent to a convicted felon with a 400 credit score, a tattoo on his forehead and a stolen car than deal with Bitcoin.
559 Replies
Originally posted by @Terrell Garren:
Originally posted by @Eric Carr:
Originally posted by @Terrell Garren:
Originally posted by @Luke Hadden:
@Terrell Garren
Why
Oh, I don't know. How about this.
What about it? Look back since 2009, you will see this over and over and you will see it rise higher each time.
If you don't believe in it - that's one thing. But at least make that an educated decision.
It's probably time for you to give me that Bitcoin lecture again.
I'm thousands of percent's ahead. What are you referring to? What is it you want to learn about?
Originally posted by @Tom Kaz:
@Eric Carr
What is your take on buying into bitcoin today? Isn’t the halving suppose to occur this month?
Like any investment, buy what you believe in and hold because no one can time the market. We had seen it drop to around $5,400 recently, which coincided with the stock market plummeting over 10,000 points. Also with people staying at home (not working) and possibly needing cash - could have been a factor. THAT's when I bought more.
We have since seen it rebound and go substantially above the 200 day moving average and above $9k. It sits in the $8,900 range at the moment. What is encouraging to me is that it has done this all without a Federal Reserve bail out. Unlike the stock market - what's happening is pure manipulation.
The halving cuts mining reward, supply for the same amount of work essentially. That should/could (has historically) be a force for the rise in volume and price we are seeing now, but these aren't usual times. People are running to alternative assets and people also need money so they are liquidating stocks/assets. Who knows how much of what we are seeing is a percentage of each of these things.
If you believe in it, buy it and just wait. It's only a matter of time
Well the buys I made at the time of your comment and throughout 2019 and 2020 are up 250%, 300%, and 400%. Not bad for 1 - 2 years of holding. I am not here to lecture anyone, believe in what you want, but I am happy to provide information.
Tom, you might have heard that a public company called Micros Strategy, a business intel firm, converted close to half a billion dollars of cash reserves into Bitcoin. Square, who rakes in millions every quarter on BTC transaction fees, just bought $50 million worth of BTC. A privately held company, Stone Ridge Investments - a traditional investment firm, just bought $116 million worth of BTC, calling it their primary reserve asset. Publicly held companies must disclose their assets - there are others on the list but they are in the BTC block chain space, and to me, are a little less significant although they are holding supply. My guess is there are other private companies holding BTC in addition to Stone Ridge. Supply is being taken off the table. Paul Tudor has allocated close to 2% of his holdings into BTC. There are a couple of pensions that are holding BTC, as well as family offices. Universities are already placing a percentage of their endowments into BTC. As adoption grows, and I think it's going to be massive over the next 1-3 years (probably 2-3), we will see more hedge funds, pensions, and once we have an ETF - which is slowly getting closer as issues are addressed and bad players weeded out, we will see RIA's and other investment advisors get in for their clients.
Paypal just announced they are opening crypto (BTC, ETH, LTC) purchases, transfers, and a Venmo wallet, to their 350 million users. It appears that adoption is growing and with these new onramps being built, my guess is that demand will rise. Less available supply and more demand means prices go up.
I watched Jim Cramer, the mad money guy, on a crypto podcast / video, and he seems very interested in it at this point - I would not be surprised to hear that he has had a conversation with someone at Fidelity Digital Assets about buying some.
Another two bits of news:
The Federal Office of the Comptroller of Currency has issued guidelines to banks, regular banks, on how to store, transact, and handle crypto currency.
The crypto exchange, Kraken, has received a bank charter license to open and operate a bank in Wyoming. This means that the crypto exchange (Kraken) is now able, and plans to, open a brick and mortar bank - this has huge implications. They will operate with both crypto and fiat, everything a bank does. Will make it possible to get your paychecks delivered in Bitcoin. Kraken will hold 100% reserves. Unlike the current banking's fractional reserve policies, which have been suspended during the pandemic.
- Real Estate Agent · Cupertino, CA · Member since 2018 · 14 posts · 3 votes6y
Not buy it.
Bill Miller, another Wall Street guy and founder of Miller Value Partners, says every bank and every investment bank will hold Bitcoin or something like it. Also calls Bitcoin the best performing asset in the last 1, 5, and 10 years.
I said before that it will go to 0 or much, much higher. And as Bill says, the chances that it goes to 0 are getting smaller.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/b...
I am not trying to change anyone's emotions towards it, but would like to point out that responding emotionally, violates the first rule of investing.
Let's see what happens
Originally posted by @Eric Carr:
Bill Miller, another Wall Street guy and founder of Miller Value Partners, says every bank and every investment bank will hold Bitcoin or something like it. Also calls Bitcoin the best performing asset in the last 1, 5, and 10 years.
I said before that it will go to 0 or much, much higher. And as Bill says, the chances that it goes to 0 are getting smaller.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/b...
I am not trying to change anyone's emotions towards it, but would like to point out that responding emotionally, violates the first rule of investing.
Let's see what happens
Everything news wise seems less iffy since my original post.
I started buying in early 2015 when it dropped to $146. The cycles previous to that made sense and we are seeing the same things now. I have always maintained that anything can happen. There are no guarantees in life except death and change. Cycles are by small means a way to predict - I look at fundamentals. But cycles can and do repeat, especially when humans are involved.
But at this point, I am fairly pretty confident in saying, that the genie is out of the bottle. Until 2015, it was something I did not take seriously. However, I left my emotions out of it and dug a little further until I made the decision - based on fundamentals, psychology, and the past.
Imagine being Mark Saylor, who looks like a genius right now, who converted $425 million - at least, of his companies cash reserves into BTC. And less than 2 months later, profited at least $230 Million. At LEAST, by my conservative estimate. Square and Stone Ridge followed soon after Saylor. I think other CEO's and hedge funds, and etc, would be idiots not to be paying attention right now. Especially with the obvious consequences of inflation and the money creation we are currently experiencing.
BTC going up or down is not something I take personally as many on this thread seem to. Many have decided to hate it, an emotional answer, and now that part of the brain wont let them rethink it. Just as I dont take it personally, I also dont give advice. But I am posting facts here to help the community, either way.
My thoughts over these past 5 years of watching it reach new heights, pull back, and repeat, is that there has not been anything like it in at least my lifetime as far as the gains it has made and the ground it has covered. I have seen the naysayers jump at any pull back to point fingers, BTC being declared dead, and BTC coming back even stronger, with even more adoption.
Just as I am unemotionally for something, means that I also must asses risk and look at a thing without bias, from multiple angles.
My thoughts are that soon, and I see it already happening, it will become more expensive to ignore than it will to buy in and hold. I am not giving advice nor trying to change anyones mind. Because I dont care.
But if you are here and reading, look at and really know the facts, and make up your mind from there.
With companies like Grayscale, who has taken in the billions of supply, Micro Strategy, Square, Stone Ridge, PayPal, and the handful of other corporations buying up or offering supply in some way, AND wall street investors, which I expect the number to grow, and retail investor interest also growing - we are seeing more demand and more interest, all while a fixed supply is dwindling every four years until a fixed supply is reached. Do that math.
Bitcoin, by market cap, is now bigger than Netflix, Disney, Nike, Bank of America, Coke, Verizon, PayPal, and Comcast. And not too far behind Home Depot, JP Morgan Chase, and Mastercard.
BTC is volatile, which is needs in order to grow, however, it's path on a chart looks phenomenal.
Here is another billionaire hedge fund manager, Stanley Druckenmiller, who announced he owns Bitcoin.
https://www.nasdaq.com/article...
Says his position in gold is many times larger than BTC, but that BTC may have a much larger upside. And as far as gold being a hedge, he says if it works for gold, it is likely to work even better for Bitcoin.
I am not emotionally tied to one way of thinking or another, to one asset or another, to old or new ways. I think people who are, who think they can predict what the market wants, end up crying in the end.
At the moment, BTC's market cap is $298 Billion.
Home Depot is Just over $300B.
I am expecting a pull-back from its current price level of $16k+
I would like to see it consolidate here for a few days before it goes any higher.
Let's see what happens
Originally posted by @Eric Carr:
At the moment, BTC's market cap is $298 Billion.
Home Depot is Just over $300B.
I am expecting a pull-back from its current price level of $16k+
I would like to see it consolidate here for a few days before it goes any higher.
Let's see what happens
Might have another run at new ath soon.
A new ATH seems likely at this point. Simple supply and demand. There are analysts using the stock to flow model to predict BTC will hit $100k at LEAST by the end of next year. Plan B has said that he has no doubt. While I hope he is correct, here is my experience with predictions... no one really knows. We could see a stock market crash and traders take profits from BTC, or we could see traders run to BTC.
A 10x run after a halving is not impossible, we have seen BTC's market cap rise 10x several times.
Anything can happen.
My strategy is to hold long, as I have for the last 6 years. I have only bought and not cashed out a single dime. What we have seen over the years is par for the course. And right now, things are lining up again for another big run. Anything can happen, but all signs (the charts), as of today, point to much higher.
I would expect a sell off soon above $16k. If there is, I will buy more, if there isn't I will still buy more. Ultimately, I would not be surprised if we saw a new ATH this year, in 2020. There are big firms and wall streeters who are buying it up by the billions, let alone the retail traders. The hedge funds and firms alone are buying more supply than is being produced.
We just broke record high daily closes - highest price closes for the most consecutive days. BTC has also broken the record for the most time above $10k, over the past couple of months - even with that quick-high $9k dip a month or two back. We are looking like BTC will close November above it's previous month closing (we need to close above ($13,880). When this has happened in the past, BTC price has gone up 700% - 1000%. There are no guarantees, but all of this is extreme bull territory.
As I said, my guess is that it wont be long before it becomes more expensive to ignore than it is to join. And with a finite supply, and a fixed supply reward that shrinks every 4 years - supply and demand. It is just a matter of time.
Bonds are garbage, interest rates suck, and the stock market makes no sense - except maybe for index funds. And with all the cash being printed, seems to have sped up adoption.
PayPal had such a large interest that they raised their weekly trading limit from $10k - to $20k.
Citibank gobal analyst, Thomas Fitzpatrick wrote a report, where outlines why he believes Bitcoin will surpass $300K by December 2021. He draws similarities to the gold market in the 70's, calling Bitcoin the "gold of the 21st century".
As far as his prediction, anything can happen. I have seen BTC rise like this, percentage wise, after halving cycles. Further adoption plays a role and we are seeing it now.
To me, the significance of this article: https://news.yahoo.com/citiban... is not the price prediction, but that it is coming from a major bank analyst. Remember, Chase analysts released a similar article, predicting BTC to rise in price.
Cynthia Lummis, who was recently elected to the Wyoming senate, is a Bitcoin holder, who has stated that Bitcoin is going to be an important player for the future and she hopes to bring Bitcoin into the national conversation.
No one knows what's going to happen, but things are looking really good this cycle. Also, Michael Saylor looks like a god right now.
Bitcoin's market cap at the moment: $309B
Mexico's second richest person, a billionaire, just announced he had invested 10% of his liquid wealth into Bitcoin.
BTC Market Cap today: $330B
BTC appears to be building support at $17,800.
Hopefully youre still holding Tiwanna! Bitcoins market cap is about to eat JP Morgan Chase. $346B compared to $349B.
I am expecting resistance at $19K - High $19K. We might see a sharp pull back in the next few days to next 2 weeks.
At which point, I will buy more.
France declared Bitcoin "legal money"
Brian Brooks, the Comptroller of Currency for the US, says Bitcoin will NOT be banned.
The DOW and S&P are adding crypto indexes in 2021.
Paypal is speeding up their global crypto platform rollout, is expected to now launch Q1 2021.
A Bernstein Research top analyst say he has changed his mind about Bitcoin, now recommending it as part of a portfolio.
Blackrock CEO says "Bitcoin has our attention" "Bitcoin" drew 600,000 hits to the Blackrock website, far exceeding the 3,000 hit average for other terms.
Pizza Hut Venezuela is now accepting BTC for payment.
Raoul Pal sold his gold and put 98% of his liquid wealth into BTC and ETH.
Bitcoin and Fear Discussion. Fact from Misinformation (biggerpockets.com)
I am updating this thread. Lots happening in that world.
- Investor · Topeka, KS · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes5y
I am an investor not a gambler. Bitcoin is gambling.
Originally posted by @Jacob Sampson:
I am an investor not a gambler. Bitcoin is gambling.
I hear ya and definitely risky we can understand. Here is a partial list of US institutions that are willing to take that gamble in the past 4 months. Although they would likely not describe it to their investors as a gamble vs investment we can also understand. Since one can now earn 5-7% interest on it perhaps it is less than a gamble than previous to my original post. Grayscale Trust just upped their minimum investment from 25K to 1 Mil so serious gamblers only now.
- Fidelity
- JP Morgan
- Bloomberg
- Deutsche Bank
- Citibank
- Jefferies
- Blackrock
- Guggenheim
- AllianceBernstein
- Bill Miller
- Mass Mutual- Investor · Topeka, KS · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes5y
@Matt R. if something is a gamble then that is what it is. What people believe about it doesn't change what it is. My statement wasn't to disparage people who purchase bitcoin only to state that it isn't for me. There are no fundamentals in Bitcoin. There is no way to analyze it and based on the analysis decide what is a good price or bad price. It is purely people hoping/expecting that someone in the future will pay more than the current owner did.
Pardon the hyperbole but:
IBM
Coca Cola
MGM
Chase
DOW Chemical
Woolworth
ALCOA
Ford
Being a big name did not make investing in NAZI Germany a smart or good move.
Finally, can you tell me what Bitcoin is worth? At what price is it over valued or correctly valued?
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