Bitcoin is 10k again what are you going to do now?
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Rental Property Investor · Concord, NC · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
7yI'd sooner rent to a convicted felon with a 400 credit score, a tattoo on his forehead and a stolen car than deal with Bitcoin.
559 Replies
Originally posted by @Jacob Sampson:
@Matt R. if something is a gamble then that is what it is. What people believe about it doesn't change what it is. My statement wasn't to disparage people who purchase bitcoin only to state that it isn't for me. There are no fundamentals in Bitcoin. There is no way to analyze it and based on the analysis decide what is a good price or bad price. It is purely people hoping/expecting that someone in the future will pay more than the current owner did.
Pardon the hyperbole but:
IBM
Coca Cola
MGM
Chase
DOW Chemical
Woolworth
ALCOA
Ford
Being a big name did not make investing in NAZI Germany a smart or good move.
Finally, can you tell me what Bitcoin is worth? At what price is it over valued or correctly valued?
I am not an expert although since bitcoin was best performing asset class past decade, insitutions are obligated to expose 1% or more of many funds to this asset now. Since it is in a phase known as price discovery where as there are no known levels of value until a top is reached, we will have to wait and see what the market determines.
It's worth $27k today plus interests and Citibanks estimate of $300k by end of 2021 seems to be the most widely accepted value of what the above 1% allocation over the next 12 months is projected to be worth. Call options for Sept 21 are at $120k I think. We can track all the values on Coinmarketcap if anyone else is wondering.
Jacob, you are wrong about belief. The only reason gold, or the US dollar, have value, is BELIEF and trust. Which are nearly synonymous. As far a a dollar goes, you cant eat it, wear it, sleep on it, or send it to someone across the world within a few minutes for pennies.
About your comment of speculation. As for being an investor, you listed large companies that you say were not good investment choices. And since you or anyone cannot tell the future, if you have invested in ANY stock, is that not speculation? No one knew those you listed would not be good bets before they weren't.
I think the point Matt made about big money only, is that billions are going into it, demand is high, so Grayscale raised the wall. Bitcoin is now bigger than Visa, Paypal, and all the US banks, most world corporations, and is heading closer to eating Berkshire Hathaway.
You also mentioned fundamentals. What fundamentals does cash or gold have?
You don't seem to yet know the fundamentals of Bitcoin, but have already made the decision that it is gambling.
Originally posted by @Eric Carr:
Jacob, you are wrong about belief. The only reason gold, or the US dollar, have value, is BELIEF and trust. Which are nearly synonymous. As far a a dollar goes, you cant eat it, wear it, sleep on it, or send it to someone across the world within a few minutes for pennies.
About your comment of speculation. As for being an investor, you listed large companies that you say were not good investment choices. And since you or anyone cannot tell the future, if you have invested in ANY stock, is that not speculation? No one knew those you listed would not be good bets before they weren't.
I think the point Matt made about big money only, is that billions are going into it, demand is high, so Grayscale raised the wall. Bitcoin is now bigger than Visa, Paypal, and all the US banks, most world corporations, and is heading closer to eating Berkshire Hathaway.
You also mentioned fundamentals. What fundamentals does cash or gold have?
You don't seem to yet know the fundamentals of Bitcoin, but have already made the decision that it is gambling.
I agree that is does not matter what a single person might believe. It is all about the math and numbers now. Funds can't ignore the math is where it appears we are now. But for the other readers in a nut shell , the elements of the fundamentals for bitcoin are as follows: store of value, programmable money and capital asset all rolled up into one value number.
- Investor · Topeka, KS · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes5y
All - just to be clear. I am not judging those that invest in Bitcoin (although, i recognize that my initial comment sounded like I was). I don't have the time to study Bitcoin nor do I have the time or desire to study any individual company thus I invest my traditional retirement savings into low cost index funds.
That being said, I do feel like I can study and become educated about my local residential real estate market and it is an interesting topic to me so that is where I spend my time, effort, and excess capital.
Regarding, investment vs gambling. Yes all investing is gambling but there are things people do to try and stack the odds in our favor. For example, buying a share of McDonalds and buying into your friends new lawn mowing business are both gambling but the existence of years and years of history showing that McDonalds can turn a long term profit does make it a different level of risk. So in theory when there is a lot of historical data to go off of, and or we truly understand a business, and or we have the ability to directly influence the success of a gamble we call that investing. The less we have of the above I would call gambling. I recognize that this a very subjective statement. Just my opinion.
To the idea of belief, I agree the belief in gold or paper money is what makes it valuable but it is the fact that there is belief by billions of people for 100s, if not, thousands of years. Simply stating that people have believed for a decade or so is not sufficient.
Regarding Bitcoin being a currancy, that will never happen until its value stabilizes. We all need to be relatively certain that 1 Bitcoin will be worth roughly the same amount tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year otherwise it won't become a currency. Why would I buy a car using bitcoin if next month that Bitcoin is worth 50% more. I just way overpaid for my car. Not saying it won't ever happen, just saying it won't happen soon.
When I say fundamentals I am not comparing it to gold or dollars. I am comparing it to other investments like real estate or publicly traded companies. Where I am able to discover fundamentals and make decisions based on those. By Fundamentals I mean, as an example, how much revenue does a business earn, what are its expenses, what sort of profit does it have left over to pay dividends or reinvest in the business. What sort of debt does it have. How consistently has it show that it can be profitable. Those are fundamentals.
Bitcoin doesn't have any fundamentals other than we hope it becomes a currency, we hope it is able to retain value. Not good enough for me.
I understand what Matt was saying about billions going into it. My point is that investing in something because others are is not a sufficient reason for me. I need the other things. I need to be able to evaluate the investment. I don't know how to evaluate Bitcoin other than lots of people seem to be buying in.
All that being said, invest away. There are lots of places that smarter people than me invest that I wouldn't touch. For me local real estate is where I think I have a competitive advantage. I am not aware of my ability to have a competitive advantage investing in public companies (thus I just own them all) or in Bitcoin (thus I none).
In fact the only reason I own the stock market is because it has a longer history of showing it can grow an investment than I have in real estate. I have 15 years of history in real estate the stock market has 100s of years.
Whew...that was long. I am interested in rebuttal. It is an interesting topic.
Originally posted by @Matt R.:Originally posted by @Eric Carr:
Jacob, you are wrong about belief. The only reason gold, or the US dollar, have value, is BELIEF and trust. Which are nearly synonymous. As far a a dollar goes, you cant eat it, wear it, sleep on it, or send it to someone across the world within a few minutes for pennies.
About your comment of speculation. As for being an investor, you listed large companies that you say were not good investment choices. And since you or anyone cannot tell the future, if you have invested in ANY stock, is that not speculation? No one knew those you listed would not be good bets before they weren't.
I think the point Matt made about big money only, is that billions are going into it, demand is high, so Grayscale raised the wall. Bitcoin is now bigger than Visa, Paypal, and all the US banks, most world corporations, and is heading closer to eating Berkshire Hathaway.
You also mentioned fundamentals. What fundamentals does cash or gold have?
You don't seem to yet know the fundamentals of Bitcoin, but have already made the decision that it is gambling.
I agree that is does not matter what a single person might believe. It is all about the math and numbers now. Funds can't ignore the math is where it appears we are now. But for the other readers in a nut shell , the elements of the fundamentals for bitcoin are as follows: store of value, programmable money and capital asset all rolled up into one value number.
Originally posted by @Jacob Sampson:
All - just to be clear. I am not judging those that invest in Bitcoin (although, i recognize that my initial comment sounded like I was). I don't have the time to study Bitcoin nor do I have the time or desire to study any individual company thus I invest my traditional retirement savings into low cost index funds.
That being said, I do feel like I can study and become educated about my local residential real estate market and it is an interesting topic to me so that is where I spend my time, effort, and excess capital.
Regarding, investment vs gambling. Yes all investing is gambling but there are things people do to try and stack the odds in our favor. For example, buying a share of McDonalds and buying into your friends new lawn mowing business are both gambling but the existence of years and years of history showing that McDonalds can turn a long term profit does make it a different level of risk. So in theory when there is a lot of historical data to go off of, and or we truly understand a business, and or we have the ability to directly influence the success of a gamble we call that investing. The less we have of the above I would call gambling. I recognize that this a very subjective statement. Just my opinion.
To the idea of belief, I agree the belief in gold or paper money is what makes it valuable but it is the fact that there is belief by billions of people for 100s, if not, thousands of years. Simply stating that people have believed for a decade or so is not sufficient.
Regarding Bitcoin being a currancy, that will never happen until its value stabilizes. We all need to be relatively certain that 1 Bitcoin will be worth roughly the same amount tomorrow, next week, next month, and next year otherwise it won't become a currency. Why would I buy a car using bitcoin if next month that Bitcoin is worth 50% more. I just way overpaid for my car. Not saying it won't ever happen, just saying it won't happen soon.
When I say fundamentals I am not comparing it to gold or dollars. I am comparing it to other investments like real estate or publicly traded companies. Where I am able to discover fundamentals and make decisions based on those. By Fundamentals I mean, as an example, how much revenue does a business earn, what are its expenses, what sort of profit does it have left over to pay dividends or reinvest in the business. What sort of debt does it have. How consistently has it show that it can be profitable. Those are fundamentals.
Bitcoin doesn't have any fundamentals other than we hope it becomes a currency, we hope it is able to retain value. Not good enough for me.
I understand what Matt was saying about billions going into it. My point is that investing in something because others are is not a sufficient reason for me. I need the other things. I need to be able to evaluate the investment. I don't know how to evaluate Bitcoin other than lots of people seem to be buying in.
All that being said, invest away. There are lots of places that smarter people than me invest that I wouldn't touch. For me local real estate is where I think I have a competitive advantage. I am not aware of my ability to have a competitive advantage investing in public companies (thus I just own them all) or in Bitcoin (thus I none).
In fact the only reason I own the stock market is because it has a longer history of showing it can grow an investment than I have in real estate. I have 15 years of history in real estate the stock market has 100s of years.
Whew...that was long. I am interested in rebuttal. It is an interesting topic.
Originally posted by @Matt R.:Originally posted by @Eric Carr:
Jacob, you are wrong about belief. The only reason gold, or the US dollar, have value, is BELIEF and trust. Which are nearly synonymous. As far a a dollar goes, you cant eat it, wear it, sleep on it, or send it to someone across the world within a few minutes for pennies.
About your comment of speculation. As for being an investor, you listed large companies that you say were not good investment choices. And since you or anyone cannot tell the future, if you have invested in ANY stock, is that not speculation? No one knew those you listed would not be good bets before they weren't.
I think the point Matt made about big money only, is that billions are going into it, demand is high, so Grayscale raised the wall. Bitcoin is now bigger than Visa, Paypal, and all the US banks, most world corporations, and is heading closer to eating Berkshire Hathaway.
You also mentioned fundamentals. What fundamentals does cash or gold have?
You don't seem to yet know the fundamentals of Bitcoin, but have already made the decision that it is gambling.
I agree that is does not matter what a single person might believe. It is all about the math and numbers now. Funds can't ignore the math is where it appears we are now. But for the other readers in a nut shell , the elements of the fundamentals for bitcoin are as follows: store of value, programmable money and capital asset all rolled up into one value number.
I hear ya, it is the first new potential asset class that has come along in 400 years. This is bigger than most can imagine. I am no expert but it might be worth investigating something that has not happened in 400 years to the financial markets. We did not have institutions coming on board previously. It was always speculated on and why the price reached 20k back in 2017 and now it is reality. There was no paypal onboarding 350 million users that is up from 50 million users in one day. There was no funds investing billions at a pop before. There was no Fidelity custody, there was no bank approved custody, there was no Elon Musk tweeting, etc. The debate is over as 12 months ago I asked what you are going to do at 10k, now it is 30k. Basically anyone who told you not to buy bitcoin was 100% wrong as far as investing performance goes.
Bitcoins Current Market Cap: $633,805,568,917
It was $189B at the end of October. @Matt R.
I also agree with you in that, "most people spend more time planning a vacation than they do their retirement" We vet every community and property we buy, and we invest in index funds, to make money. Why not look at something that can be potentially life changing? And out run real estate and index funds.
BTC $40K+ and volume is rising.
Market Cap now $743B
I have been expecting a pullback since $18K. We saw a 20% dip at $34K - to $27.7k, which was quickly bought up.
I see the next major resistance at $56K - $1T market cap.
Originally posted by @Eric Carr:
$801B market cap, and Elon Musk just put $1.5B of his company's money into BTC.
He must really like tulips. That bitcoin mining stock picked up another 70k miners to triple up capacity.
Originally posted by @Eric Carr:
$801B market cap, and Elon Musk just put $1.5B of his company's money into BTC.
Elon must really like tulips. That bitcoin mining stock picked up another 70k miners to triple up and bought 150 mil in btc I guess they could not wait.
- Investor · St George UT / Kansas City MO · Member since 2019 · 23 posts · 12 votes5y
Originally posted by @Jacob Sampson:
Pardon the hyperbole but:
IBM
Coca Cola
MGM
Chase
DOW Chemical
Woolworth
ALCOA
Ford
Being a big name did not make investing in NAZI Germany a smart or good move.
Well, I realize I am months (even years) late to this discussion, and my comment isn't even on the overall theme, but just a response to this one argument: Jacob, are you saying that these companies made failed bets on a failed Nazi Germany? They made their money. In fact, most made money betting on both sides. Or "investing" on both sides to use the more acceptable terminology.
All of you that commented thoughtfully over the years: wow, some helpful insights thank you.
All those that were snide. Ha. Choose your day and you can still primp a little about your smartness, but overall . . .
So, asking as someone just now studying crypto seriously -- and admittedly motivated by that risky fear of missing out -- what are your current thoughts on the topics of bitcoin generally and/or blockchain in RE? @Matthew John @Eric Carr others?
Josh J
St George, UT
Originally posted by @JJ Jackson:
Originally posted by @Jacob Sampson:
Pardon the hyperbole but:
IBM
Coca Cola
MGM
Chase
DOW Chemical
Woolworth
ALCOA
Ford
Being a big name did not make investing in NAZI Germany a smart or good move.
Well, I realize I am months (even years) late to this discussion, and my comment isn't even on the overall theme, but just a response to this one argument: Jacob, are you saying that these companies made failed bets on a failed Nazi Germany? They made their money. In fact, most made money betting on both sides. Or "investing" on both sides to use the more acceptable terminology.
All of you that commented thoughtfully over the years: wow, some helpful insights thank you.
All those that were snide. Ha. Choose your day and you can still primp a little about your smartness, but overall . . .
So, asking as someone just now studying crypto seriously -- and admittedly motivated by that risky fear of missing out -- what are your current thoughts on the topics of bitcoin generally and/or blockchain in RE? @Matthew John @Eric Carr others?
Josh J
St George, UT
It is still a bit new for any RE blockchain stuff so the risk is very high. Otherwise if you can get bitcoin for 10K or ETH for $500 again, that would be great. Good luck!
@JJ Jacksonundefined
Tech is eating everything. Eventually title and title history, escrow, might be on a blockchain.
Bitcoin is a monetary network and a store of value. Even with it's current 50% dip, it's still up 200% YoY.
I am backing up the truck and buying at the moment. Look at the fundamentals, not the current price, dont get caught up in the day to day.
- Investor · Kokomo, IN · Member since 2015 · 40 posts · 11 votes5y
I feel the exchange of currency will be the only part of real estate that will go crypto because cities, counties, states, and etc. like to be sovereign. Therefore, unless they develop a local blockchain with or without tokens that can be manipulated locally as the need arises (foreclosure, liens, and etc.). You might as well stay with the current system but that doesn't mean the process won't improve as time goes on.
- Investor · St George UT / Kansas City MO · Member since 2019 · 23 posts · 12 votes5y
Originally posted by @Roger Devore:
I feel the exchange of currency will be the only part of real estate that will go crypto because cities, counties, states, and etc. like to be sovereign. Therefore, unless they develop a local blockchain with or without tokens that can be manipulated locally as the need arises (foreclosure, liens, and etc.). You might as well stay with the current system but that doesn't mean the process won't improve as time goes on.
Interesting.
I was thinking along these lines when I took a "Block Chain in Real Estate" class a couple of weeks ago. The presenters were promising us that the knowledge would put us on the cutting edge and help us stand out, but I wasn't seeing it. My ability to do a deal with block chain and crypto isn't based on my knowledge or willingness as far as I could tell. It seems it will based on the tools in public use. The municipality's record keeping system, the title company, the doc signature services like docusign and dotloop, etc. But that is why I am asking. I want to know what I am missing.
Thanks for the insight on block and crypto, @Matt R. and @Eric Carr . As you mention, follow the fundamentals, not the trends -- do you have any concern about the government policy getting in the way of the free and open trade?
Josh
@jj Jackson
For the people who are worried about China and their ban every single year... Think critically and remember everything else that China has banned. Like Google, Twitter, YouTube.
What is good for the US, particularly States like Texas, Maryland, Florida, is that those mining operations are already flowing to those States. Already, within a matter of weeks.
The world's biggest banks are getting in, or have already launched crypto funds for their high networth customers. That means their lawyers are also behind the crypto
I think with some people, when they hear the word regulation, they think ban. To me, regulation, means clarity. Like Canada and Latin America, the US will soon have an ETF.
I remember when bitcoin went to near 20K and then fell to 3500. There were people kicking themselves on the way down but sold at the bottom anyways. Then they watched it go to 65K. The people who bought mirror the all time high then watched it fall to 34K. And the cycle repeats. There is no asset on Earth that can change your life as quickly, or like bitcoin.
The trick is to just buy and hold. Anyone who bought at the end of 2017, would have made triple their money in just a few years.
Anything can happen, but zoom out on the charts over the last 10 years. It's almost straight up. And I have seen this emotional rollercoaster with amateurs over and over. One laughable argument, which is found in this thread, "I am an investor not a gambler". My response, you are not an investor if you emotionally dismiss new dismiss new opportunities. There are investible assets that I prefer and others I stay away from. But, the difference is, I understand what's on the table across-the-board.
- Investor · Topeka, KS · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes5y
I don't want to go back and try to refresh my memory on the original discussion, but my main point (maybe poorly made) is simply, naming big well known names who are investing in a thing is not a legitimate reason to invest.
Here are my main points:
1. there are not sufficient fundamentals to bitcoin to be able to analyze its value. There is no way to say at 50k it is under valued and at 70k it is not.
2. It is not currently a store of value. It may become a store in time but it isn't now. Too much volatility.
3. If your only way of making money from an item is hoping that in the future someone else will pay more than you did, then that is gambling. IMO.
Originally posted by @JJ Jackson:Originally posted by @Jacob Sampson:
Pardon the hyperbole but:
IBM
Coca Cola
MGM
Chase
DOW Chemical
Woolworth
ALCOA
Ford
Being a big name did not make investing in NAZI Germany a smart or good move.
Well, I realize I am months (even years) late to this discussion, and my comment isn't even on the overall theme, but just a response to this one argument: Jacob, are you saying that these companies made failed bets on a failed Nazi Germany? They made their money. In fact, most made money betting on both sides. Or "investing" on both sides to use the more acceptable terminology.
All of you that commented thoughtfully over the years: wow, some helpful insights thank you.
All those that were snide. Ha. Choose your day and you can still primp a little about your smartness, but overall . . .
So, asking as someone just now studying crypto seriously -- and admittedly motivated by that risky fear of missing out -- what are your current thoughts on the topics of bitcoin generally and/or blockchain in RE? @Matthew John @Eric Carr others?
Josh J
St George, UT
@Jacob Sampson
Will you tell us about your knowledge of the fundamentals of bitcoin?
Is early on the curve calm Amazon was considered risky. Look at the charts. Nothing in history has appreciated like bitcoin. The volatility is the price you pay for those gains.
Isn't everything on this planet made it hopes that it can be sold for higher value? Is flipping houses gambling? Is is buying rentals in highly appreciating markets gambling?
It's not answering these questions for you. Just pointing out the fact that many people have biased arguments and double standards.
I don't mind opposing views at all. I do mind when they don't have logical basis.
- Investor · St George UT / Kansas City MO · Member since 2019 · 23 posts · 12 votes5y
Originally posted by @Eric Carr:...remember everything else that China has banned. Like Google, Twitter, YouTube.
What is good for the US, particularly States like Texas, Maryland, Florida, is that those mining operations are already flowing to those States. Already, within a matter of weeks.
The world's biggest banks are getting in, or have already launched crypto funds for their high networth customers. That means their lawyers are also behind the crypto
I think with some people, when they hear the word regulation, they think ban. To me, regulation, means clarity. Like Canada and Latin America, the US will soon have an ETF.
I remember when bitcoin went to near 20K and then fell to 3500. There were people kicking themselves on the way down but sold at the bottom anyways. Then they watched it go to 65K. The people who bought mirror the all time high then watched it fall to 34K. And the cycle repeats. There is no asset on Earth that can change your life as quickly, or like bitcoin. ... The trick is to just buy and hold. Anyone who bought at the end of 2017, would have made triple their money in just a few years.
Thanks again for the responses.
@Jacob Sampson Your reminder of the fundamentals, broken down to three questions, is a good guide any investment is a good reminder. Again, my response to your list of companies was way off topic, just exposing my cynicism over amoral businesses that profit off both sides of conflict.
@Eric Carr loved your list of how Crypto may indeed be based off of fundamentals. It is hard to find info on crypto as the partisans are so passionate on both sides, and the background/informative sources are usually too elementary. I have found some better sources, along with your input this week.Josh
Adoption continues to grow. State Street and other large funds are adding it to their fund offerings / adding it to their balance sheets. Major banks, like Chase and Wells, are offering it to their clients. Custody is next. Jim Cramer recommends putting 5% into BTC. Budweiser buys and NFT and buys the Beer.eth domain name. El Salvador getting ready to make BTC legal tender. Miami launches Miami coin, will pay interest / rewards in BTC, Kiyosaki says BTC has the greatest upside, Bitcoin of America listed as one of the fastest growing companies, Citi files to trade bitcoin futures - citing increasing demand, Europes largest derivatives platform will launch a Bitcoin futures fund. And more companies are accepting BTC for payment.
- Rental Property Investor · Concord, NC · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes5y
Blockchain - Ingenious and a game changing technology.
Bitcoin - An appalling waste of energy and IT equipment to provide a quiet useless thing of speculative value only. I have no doubt there will be a mainstream cyber currency one day. It will not be Bitcoin.
An interesting feat of coding to covert energy into a currency without the side effect of value.
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