How accurate is AirDNA?

Member since 2021 · 25 posts · 7 votes

What is everyones experience with AirDna. I haven't purchased a subscription yet and am utilizing the tools available with a free account. That being said I have put a few properties into the analyzing tool and have been coming up with some numbers that seem almost too good to be true. I am following up by manually checking available properties on Airbnb and it seems to check out. From someone with experience with the software, how accurate would you say the projections are?

0 Reply

155 views

Most Popular Reply

Bruce WoodruffPro Member

Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes

Do a search and you will find many discussions on this topic. The general thought seems to be that it is FAR better to just do your own research. That way you get real numbers directly related to your subject property.

Yes it is more work than just pushing a button, but isn't it worth it to get the truth? Your research is ALWAYS better than using computer algorithms, right?

7 Reply

See this reply in the discussion

20 Replies

Jump to latestLatest

Sort by

Bruce WoodruffPro Member
Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
4y
Do a search and you will find many discussions on this topic. The general thought seems to be that it is FAR better to just do your own research. That way you get real numbers directly related to your subject property.
Yes it is more work than just pushing a button, but isn't it worth it to get the truth? Your research is ALWAYS better than using computer algorithms, right?
7 Reply
Sean Bramble
Investor · United States · Member since 2020 · 202 posts · 284 votes
4y
IMO Airdna is weak, and good for only 2 things:

1) scanning markets to see where there is more demand (i.e., high avg occupancy/ revenue) - the free version of Market Minder does this

2) comparing market revenue over last 3-4 years to see what was happening pre-pandemic - they are the only service that has historical data going back this far. You have to subscribe to a market for this.

That's literally it. Pricelabs Market Dashboards offers significantly more depth & flexibility beyond Airdna for a much cheaper price. It is especially better for identifying comps in the area and seeing their past 12 mo performance. But their data only goes back 15 months (so cross referencing Airdna may be worth it for a historical view)

Suggestion: do not take Airdna's Rentalizer as gospel. Run your own comps based on the property you are considering - get your hands dirty with analysis. Many refer to this as "the enemy method", and you can use Pricelabs to see an entire year of data for each "enemy". You can also look fwd on Airbnb calendars to gauge future performance as well.

Good luck!
6 Reply
Derrick Cameron Jenkins
OP
Member since 2021 · 25 posts · 7 votes
4y
Quote from @Sean Bramble:

IMO Airdna is weak, and good for only 2 things:

1) scanning markets to see where there is more demand (i.e., high avg occupancy/ revenue) - the free version of Market Minder does this

2) comparing market revenue over last 3-4 years to see what was happening pre-pandemic - they are the only service that has historical data going back this far. You have to subscribe to a market for this.

That's literally it. Pricelabs Market Dashboards offers significantly more depth & flexibility beyond Airdna for a much cheaper price. It is especially better for identifying comps in the area and seeing their past 12 mo performance. But their data only goes back 15 months (so cross referencing Airdna may be worth it for a historical view)

Suggestion: do not take Airdna's Rentalizer as gospel. Run your own comps based on the property you are considering - get your hands dirty with analysis. Many refer to this as "the enemy method", and you can use Pricelabs to see an entire year of data for each "enemy". You can also look fwd on Airbnb calendars to gauge future performance as well.

Good luck!

Thanks for the tip! I haven't heard about pricelabs yet and will be exploring that software before making my purchase. I have been running my comps by searching the property on AirDna and then going directly to Airbnb and looking forward in the calendars of properties that are nearby and similar, but that was sort of what I was asking about. I know the property I have linked to AirDna has the future stays considered in the analysis tool, so I was kind of thinking that maybe it took that into consideration when searching entire areas as well.
0 Reply
Jon Martin
Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
4y
Does airdna comb Airbnb and do a look back and forward analysis to see how much they are booked and for what price? Or do they license the data?

When I run my comps, it shows properties in the same general area that are on sketchier looking streets and “meh” decor and furnishings as pulling $40k/year. However when I look at their calendars for the next few months, they are mostly open. Whether that’s price, location, interior, or a combo of all I don’t know, but either way it’s only as good as the historical data and methodology.
“Past success is not an indicator of future results”.

2 Reply
John UnderwoodPro Member
Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
4y
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Do a search and you will find many discussions on this topic. The general thought seems to be that it is FAR better to just do your own research. That way you get real numbers directly related to your subject property.
Yes it is more work than just pushing a button, but isn't it worth it to get the truth? Your research is ALWAYS better than using computer algorithms, right?
I agree with Bruce.
Manually check this against some competition to get the most accurate data.
3 Reply
Zambricki Li
Real Estate Agent · Los Angeles CA + Lake Tahoe, NV and CA · Member since 2021 · 180 posts · 158 votes
4y
It's just one piece of it. Has validity though i've also noticed inaccuracies that seem to come from outlier listings. I run comps and come up with my own analysis based on that. I find I use airdna to back up my own research more than use it as evidence to make a decision. Also paying per zip can be a lot so having the muscle to run the numbers yourself is worth it.
3 Reply
Michael BaumPro Member
Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
4y
My experience, AirDNA vastly over estimated my nightly rate and occupancy. By 300%. The algorithm works pretty well in an area where there are a ton of rentals to compare. My area doesn't have as many so it was way off.
1 Reply
Steven Goldman
Lender · PA · Member since 2019 · 533 posts · 461 votes
4y
If you are financing to acquire your STR. The STR lenders' base their decision making on the Airdna statistics. So Airdna statistics are valuable even if not 100 percent accurate. They set the maximum income that will be considered by a lender when underwriting the STR loan. Of course, if you are buying an existing STR its history, is the best indicator of its performance. Good luck.
4 Reply
Bruce WoodruffPro Member
Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
4y
Quote from @Jon Martin:

When I run my comps, it shows properties in the same general area that are on sketchier looking streets and “meh” decor and furnishings as pulling $40k/year. However when I look at their calendars for the next few months, they are mostly open.
That can be for many reasons.....for instance one of our places is booked every weekend, all year long. But if you looked at our calendar right now you would see it as being mostly vacant. Why? Because in many areas, and for some types of houses, people wait until the last minute to book.
These are mostly younger tourists who get the idea to go out of town for the the weekend but wait until the same week they plan to go. Sort of spur of the moment....

2 Reply
Ryan MoyerBusiness Member
Property Manager · Orlando Kissimmee Davenport Salt Lake City, Park City · Member since 2019 · 991 posts · 1k+ votes
4y
AirDNA is good to get a general idea and get started. Sometimes it can work beyond that, but generally there are a couple major problems.
1) I believe it bases its projections off of the trailing year. That means when the market sees large changes, its data lags. Last year it was way underestimating for everything because there was a big post covid travel boom and the trailing data hadn't caught up to that. So it was listing stuff that did 60k pre-covid and 120k post covid as 60k. Now we're seeing a bit of the opposite, as the travel market (especially in non-metro areas) seems to be starting to cool off but the data is trailing and based on last year's outlier year.
2) It doesn't really offer the ability to comp based on amenities and direct locations. If you search Destin, it's pulling data from houses on the beach, houses with a pool, etc. So if you just have some random house 10 blocks off the beach that's different than a house that is 2 blocks off the beach with a pool, which is again different than a house that's on the beach. But all of that data gets combined when coming up with your projection, even if a beach house isn't relevant to your house that's not on the beach.
Cosmic Vacations4.9174 Reviews
Website View Page
2 Reply
Bruce WoodruffPro Member
Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
4y
@Ryan Moyer is correct. You cannot expect a computer to do what a human being can do. It escapes me why anyone would not just put in the few hours and do your own research....
Except for those quickie analyses I guess. But all-in-all a tool for the lazy IMHO.....
2 Reply
Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
4y
Quote from @Derrick Cameron Jenkins:

What is everyones experience with AirDna. I haven't purchased a subscription yet and am utilizing the tools available with a free account. That being said I have put a few properties into the analyzing tool and have been coming up with some numbers that seem almost too good to be true. I am following up by manually checking available properties on Airbnb and it seems to check out. From someone with experience with the software, how accurate would you say the projections are?

AirDNA puts is no more accurate than Zillow zestimates. It's a computer algorithm that can't differentiate between nuances. Two properties can be exactly the same as far as an algorithm is concerned, but one is a true experience and the other is four walls with a roof and a lumpy mattress.
Use AirDNA for an initial look, but do your own research.
The DIY Landlord Book4.7248 Reviews
Website View Page
2 Reply
Maureen Monfore
Member since 2022 · 6 posts · 3 votes
4y
I'm curious about this also. Many of you say "do your own research", but what does that entail? HOW do we do such research?
0 Reply
Jon Martin
Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
4y
Quote from @Maureen Monfore:

I'm curious about this also. Many of you say "do your own research", but what does that entail? HOW do we do such research?

Search the general area where you want to buy. The more you can zoom into the exact neighborhood, the better. Open up the calendars of the comps and see how booked out they are. See what they charge, how nice are the furnishings/decor, etc.
0 Reply
Bruce WoodruffPro Member
Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
4y
Quote from @Maureen Monfore:

I'm curious about this also. Many of you say "do your own research", but what does that entail? HOW do we do such research?

Really? Ok - Search VRBO (or AIR) to find properties like yours, i.e..... 2BR/2BA, with Spa & BBQ, with view of lake, 1/2 miles from downtown.
Then search these properties out into the future about a year. Keep a log, or Excel spreadsheet, and note each of the properties you're comparing. Pay attention to holidays and special events.
After a few days of doing this, you should have a pretty clear picture of how much money you can charge for your property, as well as what your prospects are for having it occupied at different times of the year.
And these will be exact numbers based on reality, not what some algorithm is guessing at.....
0 Reply
Conner Olsen
Real Estate Agent · Austin, TX · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 941 votes
4y
@Derrick Cameron Jenkins It's a good ballpark for a quick estimate. I take their yearly revenue, discount it 15% and put it in my calculator. If the numbers sort of make sense then I do a deep dive and pull comps on Airbnb to determine if their estimate is accurate.
1 Reply
Justin Rademacher
Real Estate Agent · Member since 2022 · 61 posts · 31 votes
4y
I use AirDNA as a very basic tool. It helps most with the occupancy rating. In my experience it really doesn't factor all of what you need into the equation when it comes to avg daily rates. It's a good "starting point" but should not be used as gospel. I cross reference their data with data from other websites like Airbnb and others. Being an agent, I also go into the MLS for more accurate rental numbers.
0 Reply
Maureen Monfore
Member since 2022 · 6 posts · 3 votes
4y
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Maureen Monfore:

I'm curious about this also. Many of you say "do your own research", but what does that entail? HOW do we do such research?

Really? Ok - Search VRBO (or AIR) to find properties like yours, i.e..... 2BR/2BA, with Spa & BBQ, with view of lake, 1/2 miles from downtown.
Then search these properties out into the future about a year. Keep a log, or Excel spreadsheet, and note each of the properties you're comparing. Pay attention to holidays and special events.
After a few days of doing this, you should have a pretty clear picture of how much money you can charge for your property, as well as what your prospects are for having it occupied at different times of the year.
And these will be exact numbers based on reality, not what some algorithm is guessing at.....

I've done all of that, but some of my markets don't have many comps. And most listings I see don't have bookings beyond 3-4 months. Maybe I'm looking in the wrong areas.
0 Reply
Michael BaumPro Member
Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
4y
@Maureen Monfore, no you are doing things right. Some areas don't have many STR's. That might tell you something. Is it just not an area people want to go? Or maybe it is an up and coming area.
In my area, North Idaho, there weren't a ton of comps either. There are many more now, but 5 years ago, things were quieter. Lakefront will always be something that can do well so I wasn't too worried.
0 Reply
Bruce WoodruffPro Member
Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
4y
Quote from @Maureen Monfore:

Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:

Quote from @Maureen Monfore:

I'm curious about this also. Many of you say "do your own research", but what does that entail? HOW do we do such research?

Really? Ok - Search VRBO (or AIR) to find properties like yours, i.e..... 2BR/2BA, with Spa & BBQ, with view of lake, 1/2 miles from downtown.
Then search these properties out into the future about a year. Keep a log, or Excel spreadsheet, and note each of the properties you're comparing. Pay attention to holidays and special events.
After a few days of doing this, you should have a pretty clear picture of how much money you can charge for your property, as well as what your prospects are for having it occupied at different times of the year.
And these will be exact numbers based on reality, not what some algorithm is guessing at.....

I've done all of that, but some of my markets don't have many comps. And most listings I see don't have bookings beyond 3-4 months. Maybe I'm looking in the wrong areas.

You should still be able to get an idea. If there are not many comps then AirDna won't help much either. Just take an educated guess and set your prices a little higher than that. If you get few bookings, lower it, if you get a bun h, raise it!
0 Reply

Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.