For the past few months I've spent any time where I've been bored browsing sites like AirDNA and Rabbu looking at STRs that I hope to own one day. But I've always wondered... are the numbers that these sites estimate for properties actually accurate?
As someone in highschool I have no way of knowing if these numbers are accurate at all, so I was wondering if any STR savy investors could look over the numbers Rabbu gave me for a specific property and tell me if they look right.
The property I'm looking at is a 3 Bed, 2 Bath, 1,120 sq ft apartment. The address is 231 Somerset Bridge Rd Unit 2209 located in Santa Rosa Beach, FL. Here is the link to the property with all the numbers on Rabbu. According to the site it has a COC of 21%, ADR of $286, occupancy rate of 46%, monthly expenses of 2.7k and it's pulling in 8.3k a month.
Like I said before I have no experience in the STR world but I'm hoping to get into it once I graduate highschool. Not sure if there are any investors that own a property in the Destin, FL area and could look over these numbers and see if they look right. Thanks!
Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
6mo
=Ok @Jackson Cole, couple of things. From what I can tell the numbers you are talking about are projected revenue, not actually past performance.
It is hard to take this data and say "Sure, it will do this." and be 100% accurate. What I would do is get on VRBO and AirBNB and see what other places like this are doing now. Nightly rate, occupancy on their calendars and amenities. See if it is realistic. I have found these systems on the optimistic side.
Maybe @January Johnson can chime in. She is an expert in that area and would know right away if it is realistic or not.
Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
6mo
=Ok @Jackson Cole, couple of things. From what I can tell the numbers you are talking about are projected revenue, not actually past performance.
It is hard to take this data and say "Sure, it will do this." and be 100% accurate. What I would do is get on VRBO and AirBNB and see what other places like this are doing now. Nightly rate, occupancy on their calendars and amenities. See if it is realistic. I have found these systems on the optimistic side.
Maybe @January Johnson can chime in. She is an expert in that area and would know right away if it is realistic or not.
@Michael Baum Yes sir these are just projected estimates of this property. It would make sense that these projection sites lean more on the positive side. Thanks for your input and I will check some comps of this property to try to get a better sense if Rabbu's projections are accurate.
=Ok @Jackson Cole, couple of things. From what I can tell the numbers you are talking about are projected revenue, not actually past performance.
It is hard to take this data and say "Sure, it will do this." and be 100% accurate. What I would do is get on VRBO and AirBNB and see what other places like this are doing now. Nightly rate, occupancy on their calendars and amenities. See if it is realistic. I have found these systems on the optimistic side.
Maybe @January Johnson can chime in. She is an expert in that area and would know right away if it is realistic or not.
I think Rabbu is crap for projected revenue. Anyone can put anything in Rabbu, so garbage in, garbage out. It will also tell you projections for things that aren't even STRable.
I use AirDNA, but PriceLabs is also good. As previously noted, AirDNA includes cleaning fees. PriceLabs does not.
I use AirDNA to see what the "A Students" are doing, and then I have clients dig deeper into the actual listings to see WHY they are doing that. Decor/furnishings/listing photos/descriptors all play a part in why something does well - or not.
As far as "tax returns" go, I'd say you can get reliable info from PMS reports (OwnerRez, Hospitable), but not all owners have that. And forget it if they have a property manager. Revenue will most certainly be LOWWWWWWW - or at least much lower than a good self-manager can do.
Happy to talk to you more about it. I'm all for supporting young investors, even if it's just for a Q&A.
@January Johnson Good to know. I've dabbled with AirDNA before but it's always asking for me to upgrade to a pro account. However if the numbers are that much better than Rabbu might just upgrade if I start getting more serious about real estate investing. Would love to chat with you at some point about your current portfolio and how you came to acquire it. Thanks so much for your feedback!
For the past few months I've spent any time where I've been bored browsing sites like AirDNA and Rabbu looking at STRs that I hope to own one day. But I've always wondered... are the numbers that these sites estimate for properties actually accurate?
As someone in highschool I have no way of knowing if these numbers are accurate at all, so I was wondering if any STR savy investors could look over the numbers Rabbu gave me for a specific property and tell me if they look right.
The property I'm looking at is a 3 Bed, 2 Bath, 1,120 sq ft apartment. The address is 231 Somerset Bridge Rd Unit 2209 located in Santa Rosa Beach, FL. Here is the link to the property with all the numbers on Rabbu. According to the site it has a COC of 21%, ADR of $286, occupancy rate of 46%, monthly expenses of 2.7k and it's pulling in 8.3k a month.
Like I said before I have no experience in the STR world but I'm hoping to get into it once I graduate highschool. Not sure if there are any investors that own a property in the Destin, FL area and could look over these numbers and see if they look right. Thanks!
Ask them for their tax return. That is the moment of truth. If it doesn't have a rental history, do lots of research of your own. People can say anything. Take it with a grain of salt.
@John Underwood According to Rabbu's projection the mortgage payment would be around 2,750 per month with other expenses coming in at another 2,700 a month. Bringing the net cash flow to 34,800 a year or 2,900 per month.
Rental Property Investor · Phoenix, AZ and Rehoboth Beach DE · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
6mo
If ADR is $286 and occupancy is 46%, then it's booked an average of 14 nights a month. 14 X $286 is only a gross of $4,004/month. How are they saying it's pulling in 8.3K/month?
Other factors - Airbnb is now charging new hosts a 15.5% commission fee and zero to the guests. Vrbo charges 8% to the host (5% + 3% CC fee) and also a large fee to the guests. Cleaning fees are included in this gross revenue. So you'll need to estimate the cleaning per month and the platform fees and back them out of your calculations for net profit.
Don't forget to add the following ongoing expenses if applicable: HOA, smart doorbell subscription like Ring, noise monitor subscription like Minut, dynamic pricing like PriceLabs, channel manager like OwnerRez, Hospitable or Guesty, extra bookkeeping/tax help expenses, all utilities (electric, gas, water, sewer, fast internet). Your insurance will also be higher for an STR than for a full time resident. You also need to supply consumables like toilet paper, paper towels, soap, coffee, etc. And you'll need to have a percentage in your budget to replace worn or stained linens, broken items or appliances- guests can be hard on stuff.
Since Rabbu is not accurate on their gross, don't count on them being accurate on anything else, do these estimates and calculations yourself.
@Lauren Kormylo Right. Seems like this site isn't very accurate with it's stats. I think it does factor in most of those expenses but definitely looks like the revenue isn't accurate. Thanks for your input Lauren!
Tampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
6mo
Jackson,
First off, good on you to be spending your free time while in HS looking at properties. That is certainly not what I was doing at that point in my life. You are asking all the right questions too.
I am a Rabbu featured agent as of recent, and can point out some information that may help you a bit. First off this is a public listing, meaning it is listed on the MLS and Rabbu pulls it into their site and appoints it a revenue projections. This does not appear to be an active airbnb listing which Rabbu also has a separate filter for. When searching Rabbu go to the filter settings and click active airbnb and verified financials, for more accurate case studies.
I am not an expert in the panhandle but 3/2's in Tampa area can definitely pull in $70k/yr gross or more if they are in the right location with the right amenities.
@Andrew Steffens Ah makes sense, thank your for clarifying. I wasn't aware of that feature but that's helpful to know so I can find more accurate stats. Thanks for your help.
Glad you started doing research during HS. STR is only one method. I own a 3/2 SFH in Miramar Beach, which is just east of Destin. I also own some MTR's in the area. If the condo had beach views it might hit the 70K range. The HOA fees are $10,600 annually. That's a very healthy amount. Lots of expenses, cleaning fees, insurance, supplies (like a hotel) unpredictable HOA improvements and special assessments.
This market is very seasonal. Vacation peak is end of May to August. Lots of weekends September/October. Spring Break busy like summer months for 4-5 weeks. Other months are slow. You can land some snow birds during January - February although the income is much less.
This market is highly competitive. I think $50,000 is more realistic on a good year. I’ve seen some condos revenue in the upper 30K range. Lots of variables. I can do $50K on MTR’s nearby by taking advantage of the military bases in Fort Walton Beach with much less work and less expenses. Large military presence in the area with lots of training and relocation for soldiers. The per diem amount is one of the highest in the country and varies from MTM. Higher rates in summer verse off season.
@Kenneth Garrett That's really great advice thank you. I've heard before that more "boring" long term rentals can be much more financially successful than flashy vacation STRs. The HOA fees are definitely a revenue killer and like you said it's a competitive market and without unique amenities I don't know why someone would expect above average results. Also with SFH and MTR like the ones in your portfolio I'd assume seasonality isn't much of an issue for you. For that reason and the fact that there are much lower expenses typically, would you recommend a longer term strategy over vacation rentals?
Investor · South Jordan, UT · Member since 2026 · 62 posts · 38 votes
6mo
Jackson, love the hustle researching this early. One thing nobody in this thread has mentioned yet:
Before trusting ANY revenue estimate from AirDNA or Rabbu, check whether short-term rentals are even legal on that specific parcel. Santa Rosa Beach / Walton County has STR regulations that vary by zone, and some areas require STR licenses, have minimum stay requirements, or cap the number of permits.
If the unit is in a condo complex, the HOA/CC&Rs may restrict or ban STRs entirely. That makes the revenue projections meaningless.
A 20-second zoning and overlay check on the address would tell you: (1) is STR use permitted here, (2) are there any flood or environmental overlays affecting insurance costs, and (3) are there any pending local ordinance changes that could kill the STR play.
The numbers on Rabbu assume you CAN operate. That's the assumption to verify first.
@Landon Reid That's a really great point. From past experiences in the area I do know that the Destin / Walton County niche is pretty STR friendly however like you said it's obviously a huge problem if you find out last minute in a deal that your not even allowed to operate a property in a specific zone. I will definitely make sure to double check the laws in an area before getting serious about a property. Thanks for your input.
Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
6mo
So @Jackson Cole, as a young person just getting started and not even out of high school, a couple of questions.
What are you planning to do out of the gate? Are you going to do any further education? College or trades? I personally think you will need some kind of income in order to be successful. Lots of opportunity for trade gigs.
Next up is what I would do if I was you. I would get together some cash, work as many jobs as I could, live like a monk and save every dime. Get that cash built up for a down payment.
Next I would grab up a 4 plex on a FHA 3% down loan. Rent the 3 units and live in one. You will have to live in one to qualify for the FHA mortgage. Do some upgrades on your place and after a year or so, do it again.
Refi the FHA into a conventional loan. You should be able to do that based on the revenue from the rents. Then get another FHA loan, you can have only one at a time, and get another 4 plex. Rinse, repeat.
After a few years you should have 3-5 performing small multi family units that are cash flowing. Then you can start to branch out into other types of real estate. STRs are an option.
Seeing as you have nothing going on in life yet (other than grades!) this is something that will build some solid wealth and leave you a lot of options.
@Michael Baum Not entirely sure what I'll do out of high school. If I can get an academic scholarship to a good school I'd probably go that route. However I'm always trying to keep an open mind to all the possibilities, including a trade school.
I completely agree that having a job to start out is really important. It's a great way to get the initial capital for the down payment at least. Also if I'm able to work a job that is tied up in real estate I'd be able to utilize my experience in my own properties.
This method is called house hacking correct? I've heard people on podcasts talk about doing this and how important it was for their portfolios in the early days. Definitely a route I'll be looking for because it's truly so powerful. Essentially enabling you to live for free while building equity. Great advice, thanks for taking the time to reply.
Investor · South Jordan, UT · Member since 2026 · 62 posts · 38 votes
6mo
Jackson, love that you're researching this early. Most adults don't do this kind of due diligence.
One thing nobody here has mentioned yet: before you trust ANY revenue estimate from AirDNA or Rabbu, check whether that specific property is even legally allowed to operate as an STR.
Destin and Santa Rosa Beach have been cracking down hard on short-term rental permits. Some zones allow it by right, others require a conditional use permit, and some have banned new STR permits entirely. The revenue projections mean nothing if the property can't legally operate.
Beyond STR permits, check:
- Zoning designation (does it allow transient rentals?)
- Any HOA or condo association STR restrictions
- Flood zone status (affects insurance costs dramatically in coastal FL)
- Local occupancy and licensing requirements
A 20-second buildability and zoning check on the parcel would tell you instantly whether STR use is even on the table. I've seen investors buy coastal properties based on projected STR revenue, only to discover the municipality doesn't permit it.
The numbers look right for Destin seasonality, but the regulatory question comes first.
@Landon Reid That's good to know. I will add checking local STR laws to my checklist when practicing under writing a deal. Crazy some areas require a permit to operate an STR, but I guess it makes sense a local municipality would want to control their tourism to a certain extent.
Real Estate Broker · Tampa, FL · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 688 votes
6mo
I'd keep it simple. Before you even think about buying something in Destin or Santa Rosa Beach, go stay there yourself for a few nights and really study the area. Walk it, check demand, and see what kind of guests are actually booking. Personally, I would avoid condos because HOAs can limit what you can do and over time they can feel like a dictatorship with fees that keep going up. Then go on Airbnb and Vrbo, look at your competition, and price slightly below the middle range so you stay booked instead of sitting empty. And to answer your question, those STR numbers online are really just an informed guess, not something you should fully rely on.
Real Estate Agent · The Panhandle | The Emerald Coast | Panama City Beach | Destin · Member since 2017 · 257 posts · 101 votes
5mo
Love that you’re digging into this early. Most people don’t start analyzing deals until much later, so you’re already ahead of the curve.
Short answer: tools like AirDNA and Rabbu are helpful, but they're estimates, not reality. Think of them as a starting point, not a decision maker.
Now let’s break down what you were given for Santa Rosa Beach, which sits right next to Destin and behaves very similarly as a vacation market.
First, the ADR of 286. That's not crazy on paper for a 3 bedroom near the beach. In peak season, rates can go higher than that. The catch is that this number gets pulled up by summer pricing. In reality, your average across the full year is usually lower unless the property is very well designed, marketed, and reviewed.
Second, the 46 percent occupancy. That's actually pretty realistic for this area. The panhandle is highly seasonal. You'll have strong spring and summer, decent fall, and slower winter months. So that number passes the smell test.
Now here's where things usually get inflated.
Monthly revenue of 8.3k. If you multiply 286 by 46 percent occupancy, you land in that ballpark, so mathematically it checks out. The issue is that it assumes consistent performance right out of the gate and does not always factor in ramp up time, competition, or weaker months.
Expenses at 2.7k is where I would slow way down. For this area, that number feels light. A more realistic expense stack often includes:
-HOA if applicable, which can be significant for condos -Cleaning, which is higher in beach markets -Management if you do not self manage -Utilities with heavy AC use in Florida -Maintenance due to salt air and humidity -Platform fees and restocking supplies
It's very common for new investors to underestimate expenses by 20 to 40 percent in this market. That 21 percent cash on cash return is the biggest red flag. That's a very strong return and not impossible, but it's not typical for a deal like this in today’s market unless you're buying extremely well or adding serious value.
Here's how I would adjust your thinking.
Instead of asking “are these numbers accurate,” ask “what would need to be true for these numbers to happen?”
For example: -You would need strong reviews quickly -Great design and photos -Solid pricing strategy across seasons -Tight expense control
If any of those slip, the returns come down.
One quick pro tip as you keep analyzing deals. Take whatever revenue a platform gives you and reduce it by about 10 to 20 percent. Then take their expense estimate and increase it by 20 to 30 percent. That'll give you a much more conservative and realistic picture.
You're doing exactly what you should be doing at your stage. By the time you're ready to buy, you'll be way sharper than most first time investors.
Real Estate Agent · Chicago · Member since 2021 · 168 posts · 62 votes
5mo
Solid question, and good on you for actually digging into the data early.
Short answer: AirDNA / Rabbu are useful directionally, but they are rarely “deal-accurate” on their own.
A few things to keep in mind:
Revenue estimates are usually optimistic unless the property is already proven as a short-term rental with comps you can verify (same complex, same unit type, same rules).
That 46% occupancy is a red flag for confusion, it might reflect strict seasonality, conservative assumptions, or nearby comps that aren’t truly comparable.
The biggest gap is usually expenses: insurance (especially coastal Florida), HOA rules/fees, utilities, management, furnishing, maintenance, and taxes often get underweighted.
The only real "truth filter" is active STR comps in that exact building or immediate micro-market (same HOA, same guest rules, same amenity set).
For a property like that in Santa Rosa Beach / Destin-area STR market, you really want to validate:
Actual Airbnb listings in that building or street
Their nightly rates and occupancy across seasons
HOA STR restrictions (huge factor there)
Insurance quotes (this can make or break the deal)
Rule of thumb:
If the deal only works because of spreadsheet estimates, it’s not a deal yet. If it works based on real comp listings you can verify today, it’s worth deeper analysis.
You’re thinking about it the right way, just don’t let platform-generated numbers become your underwriting foundation.
Charleston, SC · Member since 2018 · 182 posts · 73 votes
5mo
They are alright, I like using Pricelabs to build an actual comp-set of my choosing with similar amenities, etc. I run a 50th / 75th / 90th percentile report from there. I usually run my numbers year one off of the 50th, 75th is achievable year two with good reviews and design, and 90th I try to see what they do differently to be a top performer. Send me a message and I'm happy to run a free revenue analysis for you!
