Have found a STR property in Florida that has a good history on VRBO and AirBnb since late 2015 until now. Seller has provided me with booking/revenue numbers going back to 2016, and is claiming the property was booked 316-324/365 days in 2016/2017. He is showing 283/365 so far in 2018. These occupancy numbers seem extremely high to me, but I have verified the property is pretty booked up on VRBO so maybe it's true. The cost of the house would be $500-600K to obtain, so it's not cheap. His numbers claim a NOI of $53,734 before any debt service, with a $500 monthly cleaning fee (average) and self managed. Or I get an NOI of $40,954 if I input 20% for property management. For both those calculations, I put 5% towards budgeted repairs and 3% to CapEx. With the 20% management and NOI of $40,954, I am still getting roughly $1,100/month positive cash flow, 10.14% COC return, assuming a $575K sale price and 20% down ($115K). Is this a risky deal? If I take away the 20% PM, the numbers jump to $2,150 monthly cash flow and 20.13% COC ROI.

A lot of numbers to digest here, but can any of you STR veterans help me out? @Luke Carl ? Is anything jumping out to you?  They rent the property for around $350/night average.  I think my biggest worry is if the extreme high occupancy drops for whatever reason, then this property comes into trouble pretty quick...  This would be my first vacation property.