Google CEO: "Massive deflation", "collapsing home prices" coming

Google CEO: "Massive deflation", "collapsing home prices" coming

Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2008 · 62 posts · 14 votes

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/3173f19e-5fbc-11e4-8c27-00144feabdc0.html

A perennial optimist when it comes to technology, he argues that all that will change. Rapid improvements in artificial intelligence, for instance, will make computers and robots adept at most jobs. Given the chance to give up work, nine out of 10 people “wouldn’t want to be doing what they’re doing today”.

What of people who might regret losing their work? Once jobs have been rendered obsolete by technology, there is no point wasting time hankering after them, says Page. “The idea that everyone should slavishly work so they do something inefficiently so they keep their job – that just doesn’t make any sense to me. That can’t be the right answer.”

He sees another boon in the effect that technology will have on the prices of many everyday goods and services. A massive deflation is coming: “Even if there’s going to be a disruption on people’s jobs, in the short term that’s likely to be made up by the decreasing cost of things we need, which I think is really important and not being talked about.”

New technologies will make businesses not 10 per cent, but 10 times more efficient, he says. Provided that flows through into lower prices: “I think the things you want to live a comfortable life could get much, much, much cheaper.”

Collapsing house prices could be another part of this equation. Even more than technology, he puts this down to policy changes needed to make land more readily available for construction. Rather than exceeding $1m, there’s no reason why the median home in Palo Alto, in the heart of Silicon Valley, shouldn’t cost $50,000, he says.

For many, the thought of upheavals like this in their personal economics might seem pie in the sky – not to mention highly disturbing. The prospect of millions of jobs being rendered obsolete, private-home values collapsing and the prices of everyday goods going into a deflationary spiral hardly sounds like a recipe for nirvana. But in a capitalist system, he suggests, the elimination of inefficiency through technology has to be pursued to its logical conclusion.

“You can’t wish away these things from happening, they are going to happen,” says Page. “You’re going to have some very amazing capabilities in the economy. When we have computers that can do more and more jobs, it’s going to change how we think about work. There’s no way around that. You can’t wish it away.”

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Developer · Garland, TX · Member since 2008 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
11y

Even a 2005 computer is almost worthless today.

Why don't you think we've seen deflation in home construction costs so far?  When do you believe we will see substantial reductions?

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  • Rental Property Investor · Trabuco Canyon, CA · Member since 2014 · 134 posts · 78 votes
    11y

    $50,000 house in Palo Alto!!! ???

    It is possible. I have seen it myself in the eastern block when the government issued the new currency which was the same as the old currency but the exchange rate was 1000 of the old currency for 1 of the new currency.

    Obviously he is so far off base because he has never seen his property tax bill. If he ever bothered to open it he would have noticed that this $1M house is taxed as $700k LAND and $300k improvements(i.e. buildings). So even if the price of building a house in Palo Alto drops to ZERO (due to process improvements) the price of the land is not going to be affected. Not unless the machines are able to produce more land. This can only be possible in one of two ways: somehow the machines become GOD and/or they figure out how to fit more space into the same space (Dr. Who's TARDIS). Knowing Google, someone inside already have a billion dollars budget on that.

  • Laguna Hills, CA · Member since 2014 · 146 posts · 31 votes
    11y
    Eric, CEO of Google, has renounced his American Citizenship for tax purposes. He's a hypocrite that speaks with other elites that see the big picture. Enormous debt that will never be paid. I read a lot about economics and am very concerned about the $100trillion in unfunded liabilities and $18trillion /yr operating debt, as every American should be. The debt enslaves future unborn generations with debt, that unconscionable. The path of monetizing American debt through the Fed is unsustainable. The laws of economics are also like natural law. Robert Kiyosaki talks about this in his book The Prophecy. Fredrick Hayek, renown economist, wrote about this in his book 'The Road to Serfdom.' Money is an idea, it's value is what other countries trust the value is. It's no longer backed by gold since Nixon took the USA off the gold standard in '71 If and when countries no longer trust in the Dollar and the USA' ability to pay their debts a collapse will occur. It's not impossible. See Zimbabwe, Weimar Republic, Iceland, Greece, Rome
  • Member since 2009 · 7 posts · 0 votes
    11y

    @Vince Beusan 

    He is still a US Citizen. Where did you get that information from?

  • Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2008 · 62 posts · 14 votes
    11y

    Originally posted by @Vince Beusan:

    "Eric, CEO of Google, has renounced his American Citizenship for tax purposes. He's a hypocrite that speaks with other elites that see the big picture."

    Do you often create fake slander on the Internet or is this a first time for you? Let's touch on three points.

    1) He's created a company with 55,000 employees. That company was voted this year as the best to work for in America.

    2) He has a project in the works to stop the #1 killer of Americans age 4-34 with his driverless car project.

    3) He's created a nanobot project that with the goal to cure cancer within the next 10 years.

    Originally posted by @Bobby Narinov:

    "Obviously he is so far off base because he has never seen his property tax bill. If he ever bothered to open it he would have noticed that this $1M house is taxed as $700k LAND and $300k improvements(i.e. buildings). So even if the price of building a house in Palo Alto drops to ZERO (due to process improvements) the price of the land is not going to be affected. Not unless the machines are able to produce more land. This can only be possible in one of two ways: somehow the machines become GOD and/or they figure out how to fit more space into the same space (Dr. Who's TARDIS). Knowing Google, someone inside already have a billion dollars budget on that."

    Good points. Let's talk about that. How would you define technology? To me, technology is simply figuring out ways to do more with less. We've seen a lot of technology with data and bits, but we haven't seen a lot of technology with atoms in the last 50 years. We now have all of the worlds information in our pockets, but not a whole lot else has changed.

    The Federal Reserve has done everything it can to try to create 2% inflation per year and it has failed. Why? Technology is just now starting to focus on atoms instead of bits. Things like Uber and AirB&B are just starting to make things more efficient.

    How are we going to do more with less in housing? Obviously we can't produce more land, so we're going to have to use land more efficiently. The first way we'll do that is with driverless cars. 50% of the land in LA is dedicated to the car. This is highways, parking lots, driveways, garages, and streets. Half of that, 25%, can be re purposed with the driverless taxi as we won't need parking lots, driveways, or garages. In addition to this, any house within 100 miles of a major city will be within the daily commute. Twice as much housing available in LA suddenly means house prices are cut by at least half.

    So now we're in a spot where the driverless taxi has reduced our #2 expense, transportation, to a few cents per mile in a driverless car. It has also reduced our housing costs by half, but we still haven't come close to Larry's projection.

    In addition to being able to use more land, we'll have to build up. The #1 reason that we don't currently build up in major cities are cost and zoning restrictions.

    Zoning restrictions are in place to keep density down. The main reason for this is traffic and congestion. In a world where a driverless taxi can drive inches behind the car in front of it and never be distracted, traffic jams don't exist. Zoning restrictions fade.

    Let's talk about cost. It is currently extremely expensive to build up. Over half the cost of the structure of a home is labor. Today, if you want to add a level to your home it will take about a year for the loads to be calculated and for the labor to be completed. What if automated bull dozers could have the home knocked down and picked up in a single day? What if a driverless semi then pulled up with a modular home that could be stacked like shipping containers? What if it had a 3d printer that could print a home out of cheap concrete?

    These things might seem like science fiction, but I think that we can all agree that framing a home with wood and raising the framing is 1800's technology that could be much more efficient.  There are a lot of way we could do more with less here.

    Google has bought almost every robotics company out there. They are very clear that their goal is to replace human labor within 10 years. That was last year.

    This affects each and every one of us a real estate investor. We all agree that technology is moving faster. We all agree that housing is the #1 expense of Americans. In fact, it's almost twice as expensive as the nearest expense. We can see companies like Google moving from bits to atoms. If technology is doing more with less, it's very clear that housing will ground zero for technology innovation in the coming decade.

  • Laguna Hills, CA · Member since 2014 · 146 posts · 31 votes
    11y

    @Nathan Lacey  @Eric L. I stand corrected, it is Facebook co-founder Eduardo Saverin who had renounced his citizenship prior to the Facebook IPO, not E. Schmidt.    Schmidt's babies are increase internet regulations with net-neutrality (doing away with the first amendment) and the pro-global warming scam, but I digress.

    The topic is economic collapse, and it will because of the growing unfunded liabilities now at $100 trillion and $18 trillion /yr operating debt, & growing every year, and a collapse in the economy will not be as a result of advances in technology.  The country survived the industrial revolution and came out stronger than before.

    If big government got out of the way and allowed the free market capitalist system to prevail and work, and remove regulations for people to prosper in liberty, the country could change course, however capitalism is under constant attack.


  • Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2008 · 62 posts · 14 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Vince Beusan:

    @Nathan Lacey  @Eric L. 

    "The topic is economic collapse"

    No, no it's not. The topic is technology. 

    Look what technology focusing on computers did to the computer industry. A 1980 computer is almost worthless today, except perhaps for collector value.

    When technology starts to focus on housing, the same thing is going to happen. Building a home will be automated and cheap materials will be used. A 1980 home will have the save value as a 1980 computer. 

    The man who has built the most impressive company and technology in the last decade is telling us that our industry is next.  It's very likely that everything we are investing in will be disrupted. 

  • Developer · Garland, TX · Member since 2008 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    Even a 2005 computer is almost worthless today.

    Why don't you think we've seen deflation in home construction costs so far?  When do you believe we will see substantial reductions?

  • Tampines, Singapore · Member since 2014 · 68 posts · 21 votes
    11y
    As for land price reduction, technology will make human redundant, so human population will reduce substantially and substitute by technology and robot (making more economic sense to produce robots than producing human). When human population drop drastically, land price will drop significantly too.
  • Developer · Garland, TX · Member since 2008 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Martin Yung:

    As for land price reduction, technology will make human redundant, so human population will reduce substantially and substitute by technology and robot (making more economic sense to produce robots than producing human). When human population drop drastically, land price will drop significantly too.

     When?  We've seen substantial tech gains for over a century along with big population growth. 

  • Tampines, Singapore · Member since 2014 · 68 posts · 21 votes
    11y
    When you see robots taking up most jobs, when financial institutes no longer need the whole 50-60 stories towers to house their workers, instead only a warehouse to cool their super computers. Nobody can tell exactly when it will happen, however It is definitely a possibility and I believe google and many tech firms have this vision long time ago.
  • Developer · Garland, TX · Member since 2008 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    This isn't unprecedented.  Agriculture was the dominant industry for most of human history, then the industrial revolution upended most careers. Many new careers and industries emerged.  Standards of living increased substantially.  Why not again, even if we can't quite see what 30 years from now will look like?

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y

    For reference, the interview was with Larry Page, not Eric Schmidt...

  • Roy N.Pro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Fredericton, New Brunswick · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Jon Klaus:

    Even a 2005 computer is almost worthless today.

    Why don't you think we've seen deflation in home construction costs so far?  When do you believe we will see substantial reductions?

     3d Printed modular houses in China

    Behrokh Khoshnevis' TEDx lecture on Contour Crafting Construction

    3D Printed Estate

    Print a house in 24-hours

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Roy N.:
    Originally posted by @Jon Klaus:

    Even a 2005 computer is almost worthless today.

    Why don't you think we've seen deflation in home construction costs so far?  When do you believe we will see substantial reductions?

     3d Printed modular houses in China

    Behrokh Khoshnevis' TEDx lecture on Contour Crafting Construction

    3D Printed Estate

    Print a house in 24-hours

    The question is whether the new technologies will be adopted by builders and homeowners.

    Modular homes have been around for 100 years now, and still account for less than 5% of the market...

  • Roy N.Pro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Fredericton, New Brunswick · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @J Scott:

    The question is whether the new technologies will be adopted by builders and homeowners.

    Modular homes have been around for 100 years now, and still account for less than 5% of the market...

     J:

    Modular building construction is far more common in Europe and other parts of the world than here in North America ... but still comprises <25% of new construction even in those places where readily available (to the best I've been able to uncover thus far).

    3D printing on the scale of buildings is still in its infancy, but interesting results are already being produced.  There is a Chinese company which is building modular homes where each module is crafted using 3D printing.  They are producing houses for between $5000 and $10000 ... yes, the houses are smaller than what those to which we are accustomed in North America, but the cost per m^2 is a fraction of manually buillt equivalents.

    As these technologies mature, the defect rate in the final product should be far lower than in the manual building of today (this as been the case in every other industry where CAM technologies have been introduced) and the magnitude of difference in costs may compel builders to adopt or be displaced.   

    One immediate downside I see as possible will be the loss of small (mom & pop) builders as the capital investment in equipment may prove to be unreachable ... at least initially.

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Roy N.:
    3D printing on the scale of buildings is still in its infancy, but interesting results are already being produced.  There is a Chinese company which is building modular homes where each module is crafted using 3D printing.  They are producing houses for between $5000 and $10000 ... yes, the houses are smaller than what those to which we are accustomed in North America, but the cost per m^2 is a fraction of manually buillt equivalents.

    Yup, I'm very familiar with the space...I have some personal investment and involvement with a company that is developing some core technology infrastructure for the industry.  While I'm bullish on the technology, I don't personally believe it's going to be a disruptor in developed nations in the near future.  Not to say it won't change the world, just not the first world...at least not in my opinion...

    That said, who knows what 20, 30 or 50 years down the road will bring...

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    My guess is Sergey Brin and I would disagree with the massive deflationary chances described above.

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:

    My guess is Sergey Brin and I would disagree with the massive deflationary chances described above.

    Why do you say that?

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    J Scott,

    The fed has put in place more causes for inflation than deflation measures and can adjust on a dime if and when needed. I would agree it is possible just less likely than inflation.

    thanks,

    matt

  • Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2008 · 62 posts · 14 votes
    11y

    I see two main things coming that will affect real estate values.

    1) Driverless taxis replacing cars.

    Google has passed their millionth mile, although they haven't released it externally. They've also completed 5 million miles in their internal testing environment.

    2016 Prototypes will be available.

    2018 Initial widespread use of driverless taxis in some cities

    2020 Many people in major cities will choose not to purchase as car as it will be 4x more expensive than taking a driverless taxi.

    So, then, what affect will this have on real estate? We already talked about how this make 2x more housing supply available in LA.

    My city used to be much smaller than it is now. The city limits stopped a few blocks from the street car tracks for almost 30 years. When the automobile became prevalent, the city quickly expanded past the tracks and urban sprawl started. Homes were built in the new sprawl areas and the center of the city received less attention as values decreased.

    I believe that driverless cars will have the same effect. Cities will spread out to anything with 100 miles of the city. Housing values will decrease as supply of homes increases. At the same time, more people will actually choose to live in downtown areas as they won't need to worry about parking or traffic.

    Population in places with nice weather like LA will increase. Southern California's two biggest problems, home prices and traffic will be fixed. Elderly people take to automated RV's.

    2) AI - Home Building Automation

    At first AI will be simple. We'll all have personal secretaries. Google has bought almost every AI company out there. They originally stated a year ago when they started their project that it would take 10 years to fully complete their project, although they haven't publicly stated what that is.

    After this, we'll start to automate home construction. I can see a cheap plastic material with built in quick connect fittings for plumbing/power being developed. If driverless semis take off they can be built anywhere and delivered cheaply. Homes torn down and put up in a week will be the norm, although what will replace wood construction still isn't clear. 

    Elon Musk was recently quoted as saying something similar to, "The general public, even people in Silicon Valley, don't understand how far along we are with AI."

    The second wave of AI will be when AI starts to regressively learn. This will be within the next 10 years. I have no idea how society will change here. The impact here will be the same as an alien landing from another planet. If an alien from another planet lands, the first question you ask won't be, "Does it want my job?" The first question will be, "Is it friendly?" and we'll go from there. This point will be within the next 10 years. Crazy to think about when you sign that 30 year mortgage.

    I don't think that is the question at all. That is like saying. "The question will be when the taxi companies begin to create a mobile app that lets you easily summon a taxi and automatically pay." They didn't. Uber was built into a multi billion dollar company in two years because the space was ripe for disruption. The question will be, when will the company come that will automate home building?

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:

    J Scott,

    The fed has put in place more causes for inflation than deflation measures and can adjust on a dime if and when needed. I would agree it is possible just less likely than inflation.

    thanks,

    matt

     I wasn't asking your personal rationale...I was asking why you believed Sergey Brin would agree with you?

  • Sherman Oaks, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    11y

    J. Scott, my only guess is... like me he has a hyperconnected brain. (thinking is done with both sides of the brain simultaneously) Admittedly, this is anecdotal subjective bias. I have never heard his personal opinion on deflation issues. When I did talked to him last it was all about paddleboarding related stuff:) thanks, matt

  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Matt R.:

    J. Scott, my only guess is... like me he has a hyperconnected brain. (thinking is done with both sides of the brain simultaneously) Admittedly, this is anecdotal subjective bias. I have never heard his personal opinion on deflation issues. When I did talked to him last it was all about paddleboarding related stuff:) thanks, matt

    Sorry, you lost me there...I'm going to assume you just wanted to post a picture of you and Brin...absolutely nothing wrong with that... :)

  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    Before we have any major changes in real estate due to tech, are going to have ALOT MORE more people unemployed. As tech makes many processes and things cheaper, we basically need less people working to meet worldwide demand. The gutting of the middle class is already a major societal and political issue.

    Remember, the people benefiting for all this are not going to hand out free money to all the unemployed! So even if some things are cheaper, being unemployed doesn't help you much.

    I actually think we are going to be forced into creating more entitlement programs for "the poor." It's either that or rioting in the streets.

    Brin has it wrong if he thinks lower overall prices are going to help those with no money and no way to obtain it with a market competitive job. Reeducation will help, but it can't help all or even most people. I agree blue collar jobs are going to start vanishing at an alarming rate over the next 10 years. But so many people can't be reeducated for tech oriented jobs- some people aren't cut out for it.

    This is going to be the defining problem going forward, not homes in palo alto for $50,000, which is a ridiculous notion. The wealthy will always pay more for desirable real estate and communities. It's part of human wants, drives, competitiveness, jealousy, social stratification, etc. That's human nature, and last I checked, technology haven't provided a solution for that. We may need to start reprograming the human brain to deal with that! (I'm sure it's coming, but thankfully that's a loooonngg way off.)

  • Sean H.Pro Member
    Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2010 · 224 posts · 75 votes
    11y

    Here's another article that keeps in line with the developments of AI theme..

    http://www.homefreeamerica.us/future-work-turking-...

    This article takes the view of massive disruption to the current work environment, but even if its only 50%, 25% or 10% true, there will be a large disruption to many different aspects of the economy as we know it.  What are some ways that an individual could capitalize on it?

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