Jobs Are Back!

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Jobs Are Back!

Bryan Hancock
Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes

Jobs are back and the economy is recovering. How do you spin this doom and gloomers?

Jobs Are Back! Recovery Abounds

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Homeowner · Saint George, UT · Member since 2011 · 19 posts · 25 votes
14y

I just read a couple articles about the new jobs report, including the one Bryan linked. CNN's current headline reads "Jobless rate plummets" and they are quick to point out "...employers added 120,000 jobs in November." Good news, right?

But, then when you dig deeper you can find the whole truth. The unemployment rate dropped 0.4 percentage points because 120,000 jobs were added and "315,000 people had given up looking for work and were no longer counted as unemployed." (That quote is from USAToday -- CNN leaves out this number for some reason. CNN just says "...even more people gave up on their job searches altogether" and doesn't want to give the exact number.)

Also from USAToday:

"More than half the jobs added were by retailers, restaurants and bars, a sign that holiday hiring has kicked in."

Further down they show by "more than half" they mean 72,000 jobs (60%). 72,000 low-paying, temporary jobs. What happens in January?

I hate to be a "doom and gloomer." I really do. Trust me, I could care less which political party gets credit for the recovery. I want and NEED people to get good-paying jobs so my business can succeed. But, I just don't see this as a recovery. Nearly triple the number of people are falling off the unemployment radar by giving up instead of getting a job. Not good news. More than half the jobs being created are low-pay retail jobs. Not good news. These people are the ones that get back all of their federal income taxes (and most likely MORE in tax credits if they have kids). Not good news.

Yes, I understand there are little pockets of recovery throughout the nation (like Austin, which I visited last month). Some of that is due to new companies starting up. Some of that is due to existing companies moving from business-unfriendly states like California. But, the nation as a whole still has a long way to go for a true recovery that includes good-paying, long term jobs.

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  • Mitch Kronowit
    SFR Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y

    I'm not surprised. Just looking at my own little circle, 2 out of 3 friends found jobs recently, another one went from part-time to full-time, and another who recently lost his job was quickly picked up by another firm.

    Now, take the small minute percentage of Americans this group represents and multiply across the rest of the nation...

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  • Bryan Hancock
    OP
    Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    I have similar stories too Mitch. My sister-in-law has been offered two jobs and is receiving calls from recruiters every day. I'm not even looking for work and I get stuff from recruiters several times a day.

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  • Bryan Hancock
    OP
    Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    Another upwardly-trending jobs report will come out tomorrow. The stock market is up at least 8 straight sessions that I can think of off the top of my head. Recovery is underway....and the board's doom and gloomers are decidedly reticent.

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  • Darryl Dahlen
    Commercial Loan Officer · Southern Maine, ME · Member since 2009 · 782 posts · 415 votes
    15y

    Just to throw a different perspective out there, I just read this article on MSNBC:

    http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43682716/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/

    WASHINGTON — Hiring slowed to a near-standstill last month, the government said Friday, as employers added the fewest jobs in nine months.

    The Labor Department said the U.S. economy generated only 18,000 net jobs in June. And the number of jobs added in May was revised down to 25,000. The nation’s unemployment rate ticked up to 9.2 percent.

    Businesses added the fewest jobs in more than a year. Governments cut 39,000 jobs. Over the past eight months, federal, state and local governments have cut a combined 238,000 positions.

    The latest report offered evidence that that the recovery will be painfully slow. Two years after the recession officially ended, companies are adding fewer workers despite record cash stockpiles and healthy profit margins.

    Friday’s disappointing jobs report surprised analysts, many of whom had expected job creation to rebound from a slump in May.

    “Any way you cut this data, it’s lousy,†Diane Swonk, a senior managing director and chief economist for Chicago-based Mesirow Financial, told CNBC Friday.

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  • James Vermillion
    Lexington, KY · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y

    I have read a lot about the vast differences in markets all over the country and there seems to be a lot of evidence supporting it. It seems to me that the markets that held up through the recession are really starting take off, but those that struggled are still getting worse. It will be interesting to see how things play out in the next 6 months to a year.

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  • Paul OConnell
    Property Manager · Farmington, MI · Member since 2011 · 61 posts · 20 votes
    15y

    Sorry Brian, considering every single jobs report in the last two or three years gets revised downward in the months that follow I am not nearly as excited as you. The reality is that there is no "recovery" on the horizon. There is no source of growth out there. The auto (huge incentives) and defense (two wars) industries propped the economy up in the mid 2000s. Both of those are done.

    To put it in business terms, it will take time for individual Americans to rebuild their balance sheet and income statement following the collapse of their most valuable assets and the contraint on their cash flow from increased debt service and decreased revenue in many cases. And when you add to that the fact that interest rates will rise soon, further constraining people with variable rate loans it does not paint a pretty picture.
    Remember an increase of 14,000 non-farm payrolls in June doesn't even come close to covering the high school seniors who are trying to get low wage full time jobs.

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  • J ScottPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Sarasota, FL · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    15y

    Jobs are still stagnant and the economy is recovering VERY slowly...

    But, for anyone who truly understands the situation that this country has faced over the past 5 years, I'd say this is probably a best-case scenario barring an overhaul of our financial system (which isn't going to happen anytime soon, unfortunately).

    Things are still bad, but we should be happy things aren't worse, as I don't think they could be too much better at this point...

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  • Bryan Hancock
    OP
    Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    15y

    Some silly guy named Buffett thinks jobs are coming back too...when construction comes back:

    Buffett On Jobs

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  • Anthony C
    Real Estate Investor · Cold Spring Harbor, NY · Member since 2011 · 104 posts · 16 votes
    15y

    Funny this post is circulating today when jobs #'s were released today..

    Expected: +105k new jobs added
    Actual: +18k

    Unemployment rate: +.1 to 9.2%

    Frightening.

    Buffet is right, jobs will return when housing picks up.. housing will not pick up until jobs return. Rinse and repeat.

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  • Don Hines
    Investor · Little Rock, AR · Member since 2010 · 628 posts · 251 votes
    15y

    I don't have time to study what is going on anywhere else. But, here is what is happening to me.....
    The facility I am Operations mgr at just recently took the first weekend off since March; and that was because it was the 4th of July and we just needed a break. Overtime and bonuses has no influence on my guys anymore. I have just approved an entry level pay increase, plus all of my long term casual labor got a bump too.
    So, the ecomomy is not failing in my little circle. If the current administration would approve the Canadian pipe line, our work load would double and add at least 20 employees. :idea:
    And I would be forced to keep raising my pay scale to keep qualified people. OOPS!!! I was headed toward the wrong soap box.
    Don

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  • Anthony C
    Real Estate Investor · Cold Spring Harbor, NY · Member since 2011 · 104 posts · 16 votes
    15y
    Originally posted by Don Hines:
    If the current administration would approve the Canadian pipe line, our work load would double and add at least 20 employees.

    Don, interesting... just curious - do your orders come ultimately from projects that are in the public or private sector at the top of the chain?

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  • Zach SikesBusiness Member
    Residential Real Estate Broker · Edmond, OK · Member since 2011 · 452 posts · 183 votes
    15y

    Don -

    We are right there with you. OKC has one of the lowest if not the lowest unemployment in the nation (of larger metro areas). It seems oil and gas are spurring our economy on!

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  • Jeff NA
    Involved In Real Estate · Portland, OR · Member since 2008 · 117 posts · 44 votes
    15y

    The U6 rate stands at 16.2%. If jobs are coming back, I sure don't see them. What about wages? I saw an ad yesterday looking for a framer, 5 years experience required, $10 an hour. That's a job, I guess, but I don't know who can afford to work it.

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  • Mitch Kronowit
    SFR Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    15y
    Originally posted by Jeff Z:
    What about wages? I saw an ad yesterday looking for a framer, 5 years experience required, $10 an hour. That's a job, I guess, but I don't know who can afford to work it.

    That's disgusting, but it is an employer's market. I'm sure that guy will still get flooded with applications. However, he may bite himself in the a$$ later. I don't care if the framer he finds has 5 or 25 years of experience. Just how well a job is he going to do for 10 bucks an hour?

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  • John C
    Real Estate Investor · SouthCentral, IA · Member since 2010 · 97 posts · 45 votes
    14y

    the futures so bright we will have to wear shades

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  • Bryan Hancock
    OP
    Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    14y

    Austin is booming right now...not sure about the rest of the country.

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  • Davion Malwah
    Multi-family Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2011 · 31 posts · 37 votes
    14y

    The Economic Cycle, gotta love it.

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  • Bryan Hancock
    OP
    Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    14y

    What a great time for someone to dig this thread back up:

    November jobs report: Hiring up, unemployment down

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  • Jon Klaus
    Developer · Garland, TX · Member since 2008 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    14y

    Why Americans Won't Do Dirty Jobs

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/why-americans-wont-do-dirty-jobs-11092011.html

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  • James H.
    Investor · Fort Worth, TX · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 450 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Jon Klaus:
    Why Americans Won't Do Dirty Jobs

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/why-americans-wont-do-dirty-jobs-11092011.html

    That is a pretty interesting article and its title does not do it justice. There are a lot of interesting perspectives in there. The bottom line is, as is beautifully illustrated with the steel mill example, is that Americans aren’t going to break their backs day in and day out to receive wages that won’t support their living expenses. The catch 22 is that wages need to be higher, but higher wages means unaffordable products/food/services. The main driver of this paradox is only further reinforced as the disparity of wealth exists as it does and grows in this country and the world.

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  • Daniel R.
    Houston , TX · Member since 2011 · 27 posts · 14 votes
    14y

    i dont know alot but i would say to these people- lower the cost of your living expenses.

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  • Jason S.
    Investor · Diamond Bar, CA · Member since 2009 · 446 posts · 233 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Jon Klaus:
    Why Americans Won't Do Dirty Jobs

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/why-americans-wont-do-dirty-jobs-11092011.html

    I could not finish the article because to me it is filled with a bunch of criminal employers that are reducing their costs on the backs of US taxpayers - you thought I was going to say "workers" didn't you?

    These workers then use emergency rooms for medical care, free schools for education, and on and on it goes. It is a big problem and I feel for the worker, but breaking the law is not the answer. Once again, if I was the worker I would do it, but the employers, they do not have to - they are the problem.

    The employers are crying because they can no longer suck money out of the American economy to justify their own outdated business model.

    What is even more disgusting is the way these blatant lawbreakers (the employers) are willing to let their names be published etc. Unbelievable.

    This is the same for all of the Contractors and even Land Lords (even here on this forum) that use illegal labor. You can justify it all you want, but you are taking money out of my pocket (taxes) and putting it into yours (profits). I hope none of them call themselves "conservatives" or as a part of the "tea party".

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  • Jason S.
    Investor · Diamond Bar, CA · Member since 2009 · 446 posts · 233 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Daniel R.:
    i dont know alot but i would say to these people- lower the cost of your living expenses.

    you are saying they should work 11 hours labor for $60 and in order to compete with workers that justify the employer's illegal behavior and outdated business model?

    I know plenty of millionaire "investors" building homes, fix/flipping etc, using exploited labor (as in paying below legal market wages, legal as in the wages they would have to pay for a legal worker with overhead, taxes, insurance etc), breaking all types of laws, putting the burden on taxpayers, and they walk around like they are perfect and beyond reproach. the arrogance is amazing yet they do not see their own hypocrisy.

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  • Joel OwensBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Canton, GA · Member since 2010 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
    14y

    You can spin data anyway you want it.Didn't read through this whole thing but my take is what KIND of jobs are growing??

    My guess is this is nothing but a Christmas bump and it will drop out in January to February.Many of these jobs are low to median income.They do nothing but keep people paying utilities and rent but not have much discretionary money to spend and boost the economy.

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  • James H.
    Investor · Fort Worth, TX · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 450 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Daniel R.:
    i dont know alot but i would say to these people- lower the cost of your living expenses.

    Minimum wage in Texas is $7.25/hour. That is $290 per week. That's if you're fortunate enough to get a job at that pay that will offer 40 hours a week every week. That doesn't even meet minimum income criteria to rent my house in the hood at $550/month, let alone pay utilities (at least $100/ month not even using the AC in the summer in Fort Worth).

    So minimum wage is about $1200/month. More like 1100 after taxes So, after you pay my rent and the utilities, you got $450.00 to get by for the rest of the month. Food, toiletries and cleaning supplies for your kitchen and bath will run you about $100/week. Now you got 50 bucks.

    I hope you live on the bus line, don't need to have any fun EVER (be a robot that lives to make min wage) and don't even think about wearing clothes, because you can't afford to buy them. Also, never get sick. While you're at it, never retire.

    Guess what, you can still make a go of it, but the wages paid for these "dirty jobs" are not realistic and employers who pay them don't have a concious.

    I profit WAY less than CEO's on corporate boards and even I pay 10 to 12 / hour for general labor when I need the help. How could I sleep at night after paying someone $60 bucks to break his back all day, legal citizen or not?

    I'd say your statement is unoriginal and unthoughtful at best.

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