Alternate strategy for mitigating risk on investment properties.

Alternate strategy for mitigating risk on investment properties.

Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes

I’m curious to find out if their are other BP members who have adopted this kind of strategy. I’ll caveat but saying that I have a few primary goals that are driving this strategy so bare those in mind.

Goals:

1. Be hands off. I don’t want to run C- properties that require a lot of maintenance.

2. Be hands off. I don’t want problem tenants who have issues making rent or who need to call me constantly.

3. Be hands off. My ultimate goal is to make money while I sleep, not to lose sleep in order to make money.

4. Be hands off. I don't want to flip, BRRRR, or otherwise perform value add upgrades. I value my free time.

5. Be hands off. I don’t want to spend my weekends pulling weeds at a property or mowing the lawn during vacancies.

As a new investor I was not flush with cash. I had maybe $15k and a good job. I bought my first house in a great area with good schools, lots of amenities, and nearby developments. I dumped as much cash as I could into it for 2 years. As luck would have it I’d go from 5% down to 25% equity in a matter of 2.5 years. At that point I decided to turn it into a rental. It’s near a hospital and I was lucky to find a physician starting his 4 year residency. I locked him in on a 4 year lease at just under market rate. The house does not cash flow (because I put 5% down), it breaks even but I’m 18 months into the rental now and I’ve heard from the renter exactly once. He has paid 3-7 days early every month so I’ll chalk the first one up as a win against my goals.

With that safety blanket in place purchased a condo where I currently live. This time I hoped to turn it into a VRBO for 3 months out of the year. The winters in Phoenix can easily net 2-3x my mortgage per month. I’ve locked in a renter this winter from December to April for a cool 2.5x my mortgage. I’ll soon be up against a deadline to move out so I’ve begun to look for investment property #3.

On #3 I’m looking at purchasing it as my primary and living there for a year or 2 to satisfy the loan terms. I’m targeting a new masterplanned community and would be one of the first to pull the trigger in the neighborhood so I expect some growth as construction costs continue to rise, the other phases are developed and net migration to Phoenix continues.

This whole strategy of locking in a long term, diversifying with a long term STR, and the upside of being first into a masterplanned community is not discussed much at all on BP and I have to wonder why. My purchases are primarily focused on the above five mentioned goals. The first property is targeting growth in a growing area, the second is targeting cash flow that the first does not provide, and this third prospective investment is again targeting growth 1 block from a shopping center just purchased by a billionaire RED in AZ.

Is anyone else utilizing this kind of growth, cash flow, growth, cash flow alternating strategy? I would welcome any criticism, tips, etc.

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Ned CareyPro Member
Moderator
Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 13k+ votes
6y

@Account Closed probably not what you wanted to hear but I think you are fooling yourself. You post title says "strategy for mitigating risk" then you describe a high risk strategy.

You said "the property does not cash flow" then you said "with that safety blanket in place."  How is a negative cash flow property a "Safety Blanket"?  You don't even recognize the risk of your first property!

You say you want to be hands off but one of the properties you mention is a Short term rental. Are you even aware of the forces pushing against short term rentals? Just because a billionaire buys an existing shopping center, that does not mean anything for properties nearby.

I think you are a victim of "wishful thinking" as my dad used to say. I truly wish you the best of luck but i suggest you rethink some of your plans.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Ned CareyPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    6y

    @Account Closed probably not what you wanted to hear but I think you are fooling yourself. You post title says "strategy for mitigating risk" then you describe a high risk strategy.

    You said "the property does not cash flow" then you said "with that safety blanket in place."  How is a negative cash flow property a "Safety Blanket"?  You don't even recognize the risk of your first property!

    You say you want to be hands off but one of the properties you mention is a Short term rental. Are you even aware of the forces pushing against short term rentals? Just because a billionaire buys an existing shopping center, that does not mean anything for properties nearby.

    I think you are a victim of "wishful thinking" as my dad used to say. I truly wish you the best of luck but i suggest you rethink some of your plans.

  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    Thanks @Ned Carey  I agree I have made some assumptions that may or may not pan out. Perhaps it would be beneficial to put some numbers to it. 

    The 4 year lease with a good tenant is the “safety blanket” in my mind. His monthly payments alone are paying $600/month against my principle on a $350k home. At 2% appreciation that’s another $7k per year in net equity. At the end of his lease term I project to have $140k in equity and intend to sell absent another long term lease to secure my cash reserves for future traditional investment methods.

    The short term rental is netting $6k profit in 3 months this winter, with my projections to be upwards of $10k for the year above PITIA and maintenance. I do understand the legal trade winds surrounding STR, and am trying to capitalize before they shift directions.

    In this case the billionaire has brought in another anchor to the shopping center, and has announced plans to bring a major entertainment venue to the area. I tend to follow the institutional investors regarding the areas I’ve selected. I should also note that I’m looking at buying the cheapest house in the development which spans values from $350k to $750k. 

    In my perspective the largest risks to the growth investments Ive made is not having the cash to carry them in a downturn. The cash flow of the STR is meant to mitigate that risk. The exit strategy on the first property is also meant to serve as a safety net to the cash reserve issue for the future.

    Assuming I am ok with the risks taken here, what can I do to further hedge my bets?

    Whit

  • Ned CareyPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    6y

    @Account Closed you seem to have thought this through pretty well. So why in the hell are you asking me? LOL

    Here are ways I use to reduce risk. 

    1. Have enough cash flow to carry you through tough times.
    2. Buy below market
    3. Use leverage judiciously
    4. Keep high debt coverage service ratios
    5. Have enough equity in a property you can sell to avoid foreclosure

    Number 2 is hard to do without adding value though renovations and wanting truly passive investments.

    There is a podcast here with J Scott talking about how to prepare for a coming down turn in the market. He gives some ideas about reducing risk. 

  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    @Ned Carey I ask because I’m full of humility. While I’ve spent years developing this strategy, I realize that I have everything to gain by learning from others. 

    I’ve considered investing out of state in areas with drastically lower price to rent ratios as a way to further hedge toward cash flow. I’m of the opinion that collective modest cash flow that fluctuates violently across different investments is acceptable, if not more desirable, if it allows for more opportunities within appreciating markets. 
     
    Im hoping someone can pinpoint my fatal flaw so that I might correct it before it’s too late!

  • Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    6y

    Personally I like what you’re doing.

    With very little starting cash you’re on your way to building a nice little portfolio of properties. As time goes on you’ll have more and more. Those notes will get smaller and smaller. Your locking down debt at all time historic lows. You have a hedge against inflation by having assets and even more hedge by having debt. 

    Most people with $10-20k just sit on bigger pockets for years talking about doing a deal. Or asking if they should make an LLC. Or talk about building a "team". You're out there buying and doing. I love it.

    I say keep on keeping on brother 

  • Rental Property Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2019 · 34 posts · 5 votes
    6y

    Ned, 

    You mentioned out of state investing as an alternative. I've purchased nine deals out of state and have done pretty well 7-17% cash on cash on my properties. One place I'm looking at the moment is Florida (specifically in Jacksonville, Palm Coast & Ocala), since it has great demographics, job growth and a good mix of income and equity. Hope that helps...

  • Rental Property Investor · Portland OR · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6y

    what caught my eye, is what will you do with #2 after your ST renter leaves in the spring? Also, its a condo - what does your condo association say about STR and or renting?

    otherwise, love the creative thinking! 

  • Kerry BairdPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Melbourne, FL · Member since 2011 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    6y

    Your idea of buying primaries, and turning into a rental after you occupy for one year...will get you much experience in moving (!!!) and a number of owner occupied, low-down-payment low-interest loans on great real estate, in carefully chosen areas, occupied by tenants. Debt pays down through the tenants’ help; inflation rises the values over time. 
    And you can keep going until the cows come home. My thought is to be more careful about where you buy. I can't control many aspects of condo ownership, due to those HOAs. This includes STR activity, and sometimes limits of tenancy to a certain percentage of all occupants. you might consider owner occupying a small multi family and then renting out other spaces.
    until you have more doors and more cash flow, perhaps choose a roommate to help you save up your half of the monthly payments for a buffer of cash, for when things go wrong with plumbing, a fence or whatever. 

    I want you to know that rents go down, too. Oh yes, in Tucson and Phoenix, where I was starting my portfolio. Start building a war chest so you have ample reserves. 

  • Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
    6y

    Nice strategy if one can handle moving every couple years.  Hands off but moving a lot. LOL

    if you plan on selling before 5 years, I'd keep taxe consequences more top of mind.  Sounds like you lived in the 1st one 18 months, then selling after 4 years.  If you tweeked that to occupy for  2 years, then sell within 3 of renting it out, you should be in a much better tax position.  

  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    @James R aduna Thanks. I am just beginning to read about out of state investing. It’s a gray area for me as I don’t have a clue about the property taxes or rents in markets outside of AZ. How did you go about narrowing that down to select Jacksonville?

  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    @Mary Mitchell thanks! STR are limited to 90 day minimums in the condo HOA. They aren't big on enforcement as several of my neighbors run them shorter but that's not really my style. I plan to rent it to traveling nurses through the low season in Phx as its close to several hospitals and there's a breed based on the FB groups I've joined. Traveling nurses typically get 3 month assignments.

  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    @Kerry Baird thanks! So the data I have from Realpage shows rent growth has exploded in phx over the last few years. I expect it will level off at some point in the near term. What’s the most you’ve ever seen rents decrease YOY in those markets barring a housing driven recession?

  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    @Steve Vaughan thanks! I actually am considering selling the 1st property 3 years into the rental term so that I’ll have lived in it 2 of the last 5 and can take the capital gains exemption. I’m curious how selling with renters in place at under market rate will affect my sales price though. I’ve thought about kicking back closing costs to cover the gap for the buyer. Any other strategies I should consider?

  • Rental Property Investor · East Wenatchee, WA · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 16k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Steve Vaughan thanks! I actually am considering selling the 1st property 3 years into the rental term so that I’ll have lived in it 2 of the last 5 and can take the capital gains exemption. I’m curious how selling with renters in place at under market rate will affect my sales price though. I’ve thought about kicking back closing costs to cover the gap for the buyer. Any other strategies I should consider?

    Ok good.  Taxes often seem to not be considered until after the sale. Check out the forums in about March.  I sold too many properties last year. What can I do? 

    I've never sold a tenant-occupied rental before.  Can't imagine it would help.  When I see an occupied rental for sale  I think discount. 

    The 5 I've sold over the last few years were always rentals so I wasn't against the 5 year deadline. I sold when vacated in a good season like spring/summer in a good sellers market and it was a headache property.  I listed the first one normally.  That process sucked so I sold the other 4 fsbo no problem. 

    As far as other strategies, I like B properties like you mostly, but have also done well with rural C's.  I can still attract and retain B tenants but buy at a C price.    I have found A tenants to be whiny pains.

  • Don KonipolBusiness Member
    Investor · The Woodlands TX / Avon, CT · Member since 2009 · 6k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    6y

    @Whitney Bowling

    First, as per STR, I think you're pretty safe with a three month winter lease. Most targeted STR by Govt is for lease less than 30 days, unless you're talking the People's Republic of California, or NYC.

    As for your strategy and risk, well you’ll do well as long as (1) you can hold on during economic downturns, IF the downturns affect the location you invest in; property values continue to go up over the long term, on YOUR investment; major repairs don’t pop up and you’re able to juggle it all with a rather small cash reserve.

    The way I mitigated the risk of having a small cash reserve, 40 years ago when I started out, was I applied for and obtained significant lines of credit I could draw on if needed.

    What I like most about what you’re doing is that you’re not stuck on any one strategy trying to make that strategy fit all circumstances, and you’re not missing opportunities by trying to find the small niches that may fit a arcane strategy.

    Private Mortgage Financing Partners, LLC
  • Rental Property Investor · Portland OR · Member since 2018 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    6y

    @Don Konipol Oregon has some tight STR laws, yet people still make it work and make good money. I would assume CA is same. You just have to be smart :)

  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    @Don Konipol Beyond securing High limit credit cards and a HELOC against prop #1, what would you suggest?

  • Don KonipolBusiness Member
    Investor · The Woodlands TX / Avon, CT · Member since 2009 · 6k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    6y

    @Whitney Bowling

    All the major financial institutions offer personal lines of credit from $10,000 - $250,000

    Private Mortgage Financing Partners, LLC
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Don Konipol:

    @Whitney Bowling

    First, as per STR, I think you're pretty safe with a three month winter lease. Most targeted STR by Govt is for lease less than 30 days, unless you're talking the People's Republic of California, or NYC.

    As for your strategy and risk, well you’ll do well as long as (1) you can hold on during economic downturns, IF the downturns affect the location you invest in; property values continue to go up over the long term, on YOUR investment; major repairs don’t pop up and you’re able to juggle it all with a rather small cash reserve.

    The way I mitigated the risk of having a small cash reserve, 40 years ago when I started out, was I applied for and obtained significant lines of credit I could draw on if needed.

    What I like most about what you’re doing is that you’re not stuck on any one strategy trying to make that strategy fit all circumstances, and you’re not missing opportunities by trying to find the small niches that may fit a arcane strategy.

    given his criteria this seems to be a good what i would call West coast or historic appreciation market play.. in my mind there is zero wrong with having a tenant pay off a quality asset.. just because its break even .. I mean what are we going to do with 100 a month cash flow.. so why take on risk for that.. and appreciation or at least prime assets that hold value is the name of the game over the decades.

    biggest mistake i made was selling my home in Palo Alto becasue i was afraid of 300 a month negative cash flow.. which if i gutted it out for a few years would have turned into over time massive positive and since i only paid 180k for it and today it would be worth 2.5 million.. talk about shoulda woulda coulda  for all those who think negative cash flow is a non starter always..  

  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    6y

    concerns:

    • The condo is cash neutral now but with a 4 year lease.  Does it have an escalation clause?  if not, it will be basically be rate of inflation cash negative at the end of the lease.  The return is solely via equity pay down and appreciation.  The mortgage payoff on the condo is not enough of a return on the investment when you have over $87k equity. I expect RE to have much greater return.  This implies you are relying on appreciation for a good return.  Low risk?
    • The STR you have rented for 3 months at 2.5 X mortgage for the 3 prime months (so it covers 7.5 months of the annual mortgage but we know that mortgage is not the full cost of rentals - Are you projecting something close to 50% of LTR rent for costs other than mortgage?). What about the other 9 months? LTR student tenants work if the 3 months is the summer when school is out but your situation is not that (I did this during the Great Recession when STR vacancy increased). I would think it would be tough to get STR 3 month terms that include any of the months of June - Oct. So I think you will be challenged to get more than one 3 month or longer STR per year and that 1 STR does not cover even the annual mortgage (much less the cost of maintenance, cap ex, misc, etc.). Low risk?

    You refer to this plan as low risk but it relies on appreciation for a good return.  If this was 2010, I would feel confident of that market appreciation.  In 2019, I am a lot less confident.  I would not be surprised if the next 5 years are flat (or even decline a little).

    I think the plan may work out, but I would not ever refer to it as low risk (it is higher risk than my RE risk tolerance which I may be too risk adverse).

    Good luck

  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    @Dan Heuschele thank you. I don’t think that this strategy is low risk (I don’t think I ever said that). There are obvious risks when cash flow is not the primary strategy. I am only trying to mitigate those risks. Any advice would be welcome!

    Prop #1 is a single family patio home which was built in 2012. The maintenance costs are minimal and with my sell timeline I’m not as concerned about negative inflation adjusted cash flow over the course of the next 2 years. There is not an escalation clause, tho that would be nice! Rents in phx are up 15% from his initial lease rate so I’m missing the boat a bit there.

    The condo STR is my biggest concern. I expect I can break even through the summer months. I've also considered turning it into a LTR for 6 months to carry me from May-Aug and then trying to capitalize on a STR again in the high season. After the 6 months is up I could go month to month with the renter until I have another STR lined up. Obviously lots of moving pieces...but as I've demonstrated, I'm not afraid of moving!!

  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    @Don Konipol what should I know when trying to chose a few?

  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Dan Heuschele thank you. I don’t think that this strategy is low risk (I don’t think I ever said that). There are obvious risks when cash flow is not the primary strategy. I am only trying to mitigate those risks. Any advice would be welcome!

    Prop #1 is a single family patio home which was built in 2012. The maintenance costs are minimal and with my sell timeline I’m not as concerned about negative inflation adjusted cash flow over the course of the next 2 years. There is not an escalation clause, tho that would be nice! Rents in phx are up 15% from his initial lease rate so I’m missing the boat a bit there.

    The condo STR is my biggest concern. I expect I can break even through the summer months. I've also considered turning it into a LTR for 6 months to carry me from May-Aug and then trying to capitalize on a STR again in the high season. After the 6 months is up I could go month to month with the renter until I have another STR lined up. Obviously lots of moving pieces...but as I've demonstrated, I'm not afraid of moving!!

    I interpreted the thread's title as you thought this was mitigating risk (make less severe) than other RE investment strategies.  Your reply makes me question if you were requesting input to mitigate the risk but that was not how I initially interpreted the subject.

    I think you will find it difficult to rent the condo in any situation for the months that are remaining after renting it STR for the pristine months. Long term tenants are not going to want to move that often (you seem to be an exception). The exception is if you were able to offer it all school year to students but the school year includes the pristine STR months so that does not work. I see this plan as not well thought out for covering the mortgage for the year (even worse when accounting for the various other expenses (maintenance/cap ex, misc)). Also your goals (being hands off) would mandate that this have PM. STR PM is expensive (because it is quite a bit of work - I am not implying over expensive). I think your plan on the condo is much more risk than finding a good long term tenant and if I were mitigating risk with your goals (being hands off), the STR for 25% of the year is not an approach that I would use.

    So you have 

    • SFH that breaks even on cash flow now but with a 4 year lease and no escalation clause. Virtual certainty to be cash flow negative at the end of the lease. The only return is the equity paydown (which I assume is 30 year fixed loan which implies fairly small equity paydown) and market appreciation (you do not even get rent appreciation for the 4 year lease term).
    • The condo that has a STR plan that seems likely to fall short of covering your annual mortgage. It falls way short of covering all of your costs.
    • A new purchase that is in a planned community that your only return is market appreciation.

    To mitigate risk:

    • forget the STR on the condo. Too high risk.
    • learn from the SFR and at least have an escalation clause next time. However, my view is that long term leases mostly benefit the tenant. Why? Because in most markets the tenants responsibility is by law capped at cost to re-rent. In various cases the LL is at increased risk such as if rents go up substantially and you are locked in at lower rent terms (as you learned from rents that have already gone up 15% - no one knows how much below market rent you will be at the end of the lease) or if the tenant is less than ideal tenant but not bad enough to evict due to lease issues. Shorter term leases. Any lease over a year has to have an escalation clause.
    • I would skip the new build purchase and look for a value add that you can have the value add value after paying to delegate all of the work to a competent GC.  This is the method I have used repeatedly to mitigate risk on our RE investments (but we do not delegate all the work but I am taking into account your hands off goal).

    Good luck

  • Investor · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2018 · 420 posts · 388 votes
    6y

    @Dan H. thanks for the input! Scottsdale is one of the best markets for STR so there must be something I can do there. I'm open to ideas. It's already 70 degrees here in PHX so our high season can span as much as 6 months

    I like the idea of the new build for several reasons. First off, it virtually eliminates the big shock expenses that come with AC failure, water heater, appliances, etc. in these first few start up years with low cash reserves it’s the shock expenses that I’m hedging against. 

    For that same reason I took on a 4 year lease with the physician. The idea of one renter, one turnover, one application/showing period...all of that was worth missing out on the escalation in my mind. Bird in the hand kind of situation. Plus one or two months of vacancy virtually wipes out all gains to be had on an escalation clause, if not more.

  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    6y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    @Dan H. thanks for the input! Scottsdale is one of the best markets for STR so there must be something I can do there. I'm open to ideas. It's already 70 degrees here in PHX so our high season can span as much as 6 months

    I like the idea of the new build for several reasons. First off, it virtually eliminates the big shock expenses that come with AC failure, water heater, appliances, etc. in these first few start up years with low cash reserves it’s the shock expenses that I’m hedging against. 

    For that same reason I took on a 4 year lease with the physician. The idea of one renter, one turnover, one application/showing period...all of that was worth missing out on the escalation in my mind. Bird in the hand kind of situation. Plus one or two months of vacancy virtually wipes out all gains to be had on an escalation clause, if not more.

    You are thinking the 4 year lease makes it hard for the tenant to terminate early.  In most areas it is easy for a tenant to terminate the lease early (at the reasonable cost associated with the vacancy) and difficult for the LL to terminate the lease without good cause.  My point is you may have increased the odds that the tenant stays for four years, but likely not as much as you are thinking. I have had tenants terminate leases early for a variety of reasons over the years.  You are currently 15% below market rent with 2.5 years left on the lease.  I can easily see this being 25% below market rent at the end of the lease.

    As for the new build …  You do lesson the maintenance/cap ex in the short term but to counter that the most loss in rental value to new/rehab units happens with the first tenant or initial occupant.   At purchase, or after completing the rehab, everything is new and you rent at the very top of market.  The initial wear and tear, even if minimal, is the wear and tear that most affects the market value.  An analogy is a new car purchase.  The moment you drive it home, the value of the car falls significantly.  A car that is a few years old has a consistent and slower loss of value going forward until it levels off maybe 15 years or so after purchase.  This is also why turnkey properties, after a tenant has been placed, are not worth what the investor spent for the property.

    Good luck

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