What will come from Texas Artic Vortex
Real Estate Agent · Bellingham, WA · Member since 2017 · 427 posts · 182 votes
What will come from Texas Artic Vortex
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Residential Real Estate Broker · College Station, TX · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 969 votes
5y@Robert Freeborn. I've lived in Central Texas (Austin > College Station) continuously since the late 80's, and this is the third "Freak Weather" system I've experienced. You grit your teeth for a few days, add another layer of clothing - survive it, and continue on with life as before.
IMO, we need to invest in more traditional power systems known to be reliable. Wind is great most of the year in Texas - but obviously susceptible to cold weather, it's also an eyesore IMO, takes up vast amounts of land, much the same thoughts about Solar Farms. So called environmentally friendly power generation systems have a place - but we shouldn't place our main power generation into these type of systems until their reliability is more of a fact and less of a promise.
The biggest argument against traditional power generators is the environmental argument. The Climate is changing - most agree on that point! The difference is what is causing the change. I'm more of the cyclical change believer. 20-years ago, many were pushing a coming Ice age. Much depends on your political point of view.
63 Replies
- Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes5y
@Jim Cummings 6% of the lost capacity came from frozen wind turbines while 80% of the loss of capacity was from problems at gas and coal fired power plants. The frozen wind turbines got 100% of the blame though, in the beginning anyway, although those claims have been roundly debunked now. The frozen wind turbines also could have been winterized, like they are in colder climates where they work just fine, but they don’t bother to do that in Texas because they need the wind power more in the summer there, typically. It's primarily used as a peak-shaver energy source in the summer to offset everyone turning their ACs on at once. Wind is a relatively small percentage of the energy mix in Texas this time of year as it is, and the loss of capacity from wind actually had very little effect on the power outages. Energy analysts are actually attributing the bulk of the lost capacity to problems at natural gas power plants, which supply the base load. The larger issue however is that Texas has an energy grid that is independent of the 47 other contiguous states, so it can’t just borrow power from nearby states as needed like other states do. Wind was only blamed because it was politically convenient in some circles, with certain agendas, to do so. There was never any fact backing those statements up.
- Handyman · Pittsburgh, PA · Member since 2018 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes5y
Long term, Texas is going to endure these problems, energy oversight reviews will take place, bottoms will be spanked and heads will roll, and this kind of disaster isn't going to happen in quite the same way again.
As @Steve K. indicated, Texas's lunatic independent energy grid design will likely die a quick and quiet death in the days ahead. Success has a thousand fathers, failure is an orphan.It's a rough winter. It's been my experience that shared rough winters bring out some of the worst but a lot of the best in people.
I'm pretty sure the days ahead will show that Texas and Texans are most certainly not all hat and no cattle.
- Rental Property Investor · Madison, AL · Member since 2019 · 487 posts · 658 votes5y
In the military, we have a saying; the enemy always gets a vote. I have a rental property in Louisiana, and that property is newer with outstanding tenants and cash flows nicely. However, there have been about 4 to 5 hurricanes or tropical storms that come with it. That being said, investing in real estate has an inherent risk level, which is why it is always important to invest from a position of strength. Ensure you have the finances and property insurance beforehand. Texas will continue to pull high-paying jobs and remain a great investment opportunity for the future.
Sincerely,
Josh
- Rental Property Investor · Amityville, NY · Member since 2018 · 351 posts · 441 votes5y
@Steve K.
I read turbines were responsible for 42% of power in that area and when they failed it overloaded the gas and oil infrastructure as people were turning up heat and requiring a little more power in general
- Rental Property Investor · Amityville, NY · Member since 2018 · 351 posts · 441 votes5y
I think many are underestimating the repair bills by a lot although it is likely to affect the real estate market as a whole.
When it warms up this week and water lines start to defrost there is going to be leaks and floods everywhere causing further damage.
Most pools that were not drained or winterized will have broken plumbing underneath concrete, pavers, decking patios etc.
Definitely not a $300 event. Wouldn't be surprised if fema steps in and this becomes a major insurance disaster.
- Rental Property Investor · Austin, TX · Member since 2020 · 10 posts · 9 votes5y
I currently have a live-in-flip I am working on in Round Rock and we thankfully never lost power this entire time. I will definitely be including that as a selling point when I put the place up for rent. I am glad I spent the last few months air sealing the place, adding insulation, and replacing leaky ductwork. I am just wondering if there is anything we can put in leases to try and prevent property damage and and keep the tenants safe. Example - Tenant must drip all outside spigots when temperatures drop below 28 degrees.
- Rental Property Investor · Concord, NC · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @Jim Cummings:
IMO, we need to invest in more traditional power systems known to be reliable. Wind is great most of the year in Texas - but obviously susceptible to cold weather, it's also an eyesore IMO, takes up vast amounts of land, much the same thoughts about Solar Farms.
Is it just ignorance or politics - 46,000 megawatts of Texas generation went offline, with 185 generating plants tripped. ERCOT officials said 28,000 megawatts came from coal, gas and nuclear plants, and 18,000 megawatts were from solar and wind.Yes, lets blame wind generation. I would much rather live beside a natural gas fracking site and a gas burning plant than a windmill lol.
- Real Estate Agent · Nashville, TN · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes5y
Nothing will change. It's Texas. You can't beat Texas
- Investor · Corpus Christi, TX · Member since 2012 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes5y
I think the biggest takeaway won't be related to real estate investing but instead will be in preparation for one-off events such as this. I suspect Generac (major manufacturer of home generators) will see record demand this year as homeowner's realize better individual preparation is key. While all this was going down, I had no water and electric for 2 days, so I packed up a stash of water and gasoline (both were in very short supply) and headed further north on the Texas coast where I had a family member offer a hot shower and a warm bed. Almost all gas stations along the way were offline due to a lack of electricity so having 20 gallons of additional gas came in very handy for us. Bottom line, real estate won't be affected...except perhaps for the second home market where some real estate may be offloaded quickly as an emotional response.
- Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @Jim K.:
Long term, Texas is going to endure these problems, energy oversight reviews will take place, bottoms will be spanked and heads will roll, and this kind of disaster isn't going to happen in quite the same way again.
As @Steve K. indicated, Texas's lunatic independent energy grid design will likely die a quick and quiet death in the days ahead. Success has a thousand fathers, failure is an orphan.It's a rough winter. It's been my experience that shared rough winters bring out some of the worst but a lot of the best in people.
I'm pretty sure the days ahead will show that Texas and Texans are most certainly not all hat and no cattle.
Nobody thought their independent grid was crazy until this happened. Even states that are connected to larger grids experience outages and at higher frequency.
In this situation, connecting Texas to other states would not solve the problem. Northern Texas is already connected to SPP, which runs all the way up to Canada. It includes my state of South Dakota. We had -25F below temperatures when Texas had dips to +20F. South Dakota experienced some outages. There isn't even enough production capacity in SPP to have offset the losses in Texas. Even if you could take the power, then you are pushing colder states offline to heat the south? That would just increase the death toll and property damage.
Bottom line, If nobody has surplus to provide to the affected region, it doesn't matter if you are connected.The real issue in Texas is how weather affected their power generation. Both natural gas production and natural gas power generation plants had problems due to cold temperatures. Both could be fixed with weather hardening processes and added natural gas reserves, like we have in the north. I read that half their natural gas electricity production was off line. So it isn't that they exceeded capacity, but a problem of loosing capacity.
https://www.texastribune.org/2...
It also isn't really a failure of natural gas or wind turbines as a technology. If both systems were freeze hardened, they would have both operated. Regardless of whether Texas is eventually connected to a larger grid, the cold weather production problems need to addressed.
- Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @Erik B.:
@Steve K.
I read turbines were responsible for 42% of power in that area and when they failed it overloaded the gas and oil infrastructure as people were turning up heat and requiring a little more power in general
Not sure how how 42% would be possible when even at its peak during the windy time of year wind only supplies a max of 23% of Texas’ grid power. During this time of year the average is around 13%. A little less than half the turbines froze, which translates to less than 6.5% of lost capacity due to wind. Wind power is never meant to provide a base load anyway, because wind is intermittent (it works when the wind is blowing). Natural gas, coal and nuclear provide the base load in Texas. Each of these sources of generation, wind included, can work fine in much colder temps than Texas experienced when they are winterized. The problem is that none were prepared for cold temps, even though Texas has had colder temps before, and all had issues at the same time, combined with Texas having an independent grid and not being able to bring electricity in from nearby states that weren’t experiencing lack of capacity issues, like Colorado (although @Joe Splitrock aptly pointed out an interconnected grid wouldn’t have solved the problem altogether, but it still seems to have been a contributing factor). It was primarily operator error and a culmination of different factors, not a fundamental failure of any of the technologies involved, wind included. So it’s disingenuous for the anti-wind crowd to be blaming wind alone and glossing over the bigger picture which would require those same folks pointing fingers to accept some of the blame themselves.
- Rental Property Investor · Amityville, NY · Member since 2018 · 351 posts · 441 votes5y
@Steve K.
Its just what I read so I don't know the real truth or problem. Which is half the problem nowadays with so much misinformation going around you can read and watch for hours and still be conflicted.
- Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @Erik B.:
@Steve K.
Its just what I read so I don't know the real truth or problem. Which is half the problem nowadays with so much misinformation going around you can read and watch for hours and still be conflicted.
Definitely agree on that! I consider myself a centrist/ try to avoid politics for the most part, and I worked in energy for many years. It always bugs me when energy is politicized by both sides, when at the end of the day doing what’s best for everyone technologically should be the main goal. Regardless of what form of energy caused what percentage of lost capacity, even if 100% of wind in Texas was down the natural gas boosters should have been able to easily make up that difference (if they were operating properly), so it was obvious to me in this case that the blame being cast at wind, mostly from groups/news sources that like to blame wind for everything no matter what, weren’t telling the whole truth.
- Real Estate Agent · Houston, TX · Member since 2020 · 51 posts · 44 votes5y
A natural disaster shouldn't deter your from investing anywhere. It happens and there is nothing anyone can do to prevent it. As for the power outages... they are GROSSLY misunderstood. Yes power generation sources froze and went offline, all different types not just wind, gas, etc. However, one of the bigger issues was Texas typically produces far more power than is needed during winter months and sell that power off to other states while leaving a reserve for "emergencies". This historic event that put all 254 counties under a winter storm warning was far more demanding than anyone could have predicted, energy usage wise. Binding contracts were already in place to sell off what was thought to be excess power, normal maintenance shut downs are also scheduled in the winter months taking those plants offline before they would have even been needed. Pair those two issues with some of the online generation plants freezing over and you get the result we have experienced.
The power grid is not unstable in Texas nor is the blame on green energy or on natural gas. It was just a freak event no one would have imagined or prepared for.
Why are people freaking out over this but not when most of North Houston's grid was offline due to the Hurricane that hit Lake Charles? Or any other natural disaster?
- Real Estate Broker · Seabrook, TX · Member since 2014 · 31 posts · 25 votes5y
@Trevor M.
I’m adding to my to-do list to make sure the tenants know where the shut off value is.
A client of mine had one of his tenants leave the house Monday without tell him, when they got home water was pouring out of the ceiling, they didn’t know how to shut it, cell service was crap so took some time for the call to go through to landlord and all he heard when he answered was water!
He’ll be filing through insurance, and says lesson learned. But some things we think ‘everyone should know that’; some just don’t.
I own 8 single family and have a contract on a 12 unit apartment; we made it through with two exterior pipes cracked, a pool and sprinkler so we were able to isolated water shut off on both and it'll be a cheap fix once our plumber is done with everyone's interior fixes.
I don't think this will be a huge opportunity for distressed sales. When you look at something like Hurricane Harvey, that flooded homes that had never flooded and weren't in high flood risk zones, there was a huge number of houses did not have flood insurance. This winter storm with broken and leaking pipes will be covered by most insurance companies at a 1% deductible in most cases. I'm sure there will be some opportunities out there but not a huge amount.
- 5yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Jim Cummings:
@Robert Freeborn. Didn't mean to delve off into politics. I'm not aware of any "Dam Fed" Homes that you mention.
This "Vortex" Weather phenomenon is rare, so, my gut instinct that little will change as result of the weather. There will be lots of finger pointing and wagging of tongues - but very little action. HOPE I'm wrong!
the last one I happened to be in down in the south was Jan 2009.. Jackson MS got hammered major water lines burst every where national guard had to truck water in..
we just had it here in Portland area I was without power internet cell service for 5 days.. some will be weeks.. Ice took out millions of trees and branches.. my car got hit my basement flooded it was not good.. called insurance ..
issue will be man power to fix all this stuff.. but my subs on our new builds only missed one day.. as that project did not get it as bad as us we had 3 inchs of ice over an inch of snow..
- Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @Krystyna Fennelly:
@Trevor M.
I’m adding to my to-do list to make sure the tenants know where the shut off value is.
A client of mine had one of his tenants leave the house Monday without tell him, when they got home water was pouring out of the ceiling, they didn’t know how to shut it, cell service was crap so took some time for the call to go through to landlord and all he heard when he answered was water!
He’ll be filing through insurance, and says lesson learned. But some things we think ‘everyone should know that’; some just don’t.
To prevent freezing, you want the main shut off and the lines drained. That means opening all the faucets after shutting water off.
One final pro tip. Replacing copper pipes with PEX will give you freeze protection. The PEX pipes will expand without bursting.
- 5yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Joshua McMillion:
In the military, we have a saying; the enemy always gets a vote. I have a rental property in Louisiana, and that property is newer with outstanding tenants and cash flows nicely. However, there have been about 4 to 5 hurricanes or tropical storms that come with it. That being said, investing in real estate has an inherent risk level, which is why it is always important to invest from a position of strength. Ensure you have the finances and property insurance beforehand. Texas will continue to pull high-paying jobs and remain a great investment opportunity for the future.
Sincerely,
Josh
yup all this stuff blows over I mean look what happened to SF Bay Area after the big Loma Preita quake knocked down freeways knocked out the bay bridge for a long time.. real estate did stumble badly for a few years but then came roaring back. We get notified all the time in the north west of the big one.. one day we will all get a big one..
- Realtor · Boulder, CO · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 5k+ votes5y
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Joshua McMillion:
In the military, we have a saying; the enemy always gets a vote. I have a rental property in Louisiana, and that property is newer with outstanding tenants and cash flows nicely. However, there have been about 4 to 5 hurricanes or tropical storms that come with it. That being said, investing in real estate has an inherent risk level, which is why it is always important to invest from a position of strength. Ensure you have the finances and property insurance beforehand. Texas will continue to pull high-paying jobs and remain a great investment opportunity for the future.
Sincerely,
Josh
yup all this stuff blows over I mean look what happened to SF Bay Area after the big Loma Preita quake knocked down freeways knocked out the bay bridge for a long time.. real estate did stumble badly for a few years but then came roaring back. We get notified all the time in the north west of the big one.. one day we will all get a big one..
I'm always amazed how quickly RE markets bounce back after big natural disasters. It looked like we were doomed here after last year's wildfires, but multi-million dollar homes were being listed and going under contract within hours despite being right on the edge of those burn zones even as they were just being extinguished and still being worked on. Of course they couldn't get insurance, so some of those closings were delayed. Buyer demand was basically unphased though.
- Member since 2019 · 2 posts · 0 votes5y
@Matthew Rolf “landlord Friendly laws”
Do you see any of this impacted by Covid? Long story short, I’m building a new house to move into and am considering leasing my current property when I move. But am afraid that with Covid, things can go south if tenant loses jobs and cant pay the mortgage. Where can I find current landlord/tenant laws with covid.? Thanks
- Flipper/Rehabber · Irving, TX · Member since 2011 · 22 posts · 13 votes5y
Turned the water off to the rehab, checked all the rentals for wrapped exterior pipes. Fingers crossed and waiting for the thaw.
- Los Angeles · Member since 2018 · 464 posts · 471 votes5y
Originally posted by @Ridge Tullos:
Why are people freaking out over this but not when most of North Houston's grid was offline due to the Hurricane that hit Lake Charles?
Trump is out of office and after 12 months, people are bored hearing about still more Covid deaths. What else is there to freak out over these days? :-)
- Real Estate Agent · Houston, TX · Member since 2020 · 51 posts · 44 votes5y
@Alvin Sylvain sadly has some truth to it. Everyone is an expert these days and conspiracy theories are running rampant!
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes5y
I would like to understand how much is typically the cost of that pipe bursting in a SF ? Will it leads to total demolition of the floor?
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