What will come from Texas Artic Vortex

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What will come from Texas Artic Vortex

Robert Freeborn
Real Estate Agent · Bellingham, WA · Member since 2017 · 427 posts · 182 votes

I’m sure we’ve all seen many videos of ceilings collapsing, pipes bursting, and flooded floors coming out of Texas.

Considering the uncertainty with the power grid, climate change, and likelihood or unlikelihood of the energy grid being prepared for future weather events, do you intend to start investing or continuing investing in Texas? Do you intend to sell? What kid of opportunities do you see in the future?

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Jim Cummings
Residential Real Estate Broker · College Station, TX · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 969 votes
5y

@Robert Freeborn. I've lived in Central Texas (Austin > College Station) continuously since the late 80's, and this is the third "Freak Weather" system I've experienced. You grit your teeth for a few days, add another layer of clothing - survive it, and continue on with life as before. 

IMO, we need to invest in more traditional power systems known to be reliable. Wind is great most of the year in Texas - but obviously susceptible to cold weather, it's also an eyesore IMO, takes up vast amounts of land, much the same thoughts about Solar Farms. So called environmentally friendly power generation systems have a place - but we shouldn't place our main power generation into these type of systems until their reliability is more of a fact and less of a promise.   

The biggest argument against traditional power generators is the environmental argument. The Climate is changing - most agree on that point! The difference is what is causing the change. I'm more of the cyclical change believer. 20-years ago, many were pushing a coming Ice age. Much depends on your political point of view. 

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  • Waylon Zook
    Etna Green, IN · Member since 2015 · 207 posts · 157 votes
    5y

    @Robert Freeborn pretty much any area has the possibility of having a natural disaster at any given time. They are impossible to accurately predict so we need to focus on what we can control.

    14Reply
  • Jim Cummings
    Residential Real Estate Broker · College Station, TX · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 969 votes
    5y

    @Robert Freeborn. I've lived in Central Texas (Austin > College Station) continuously since the late 80's, and this is the third "Freak Weather" system I've experienced. You grit your teeth for a few days, add another layer of clothing - survive it, and continue on with life as before. 

    IMO, we need to invest in more traditional power systems known to be reliable. Wind is great most of the year in Texas - but obviously susceptible to cold weather, it's also an eyesore IMO, takes up vast amounts of land, much the same thoughts about Solar Farms. So called environmentally friendly power generation systems have a place - but we shouldn't place our main power generation into these type of systems until their reliability is more of a fact and less of a promise.   

    The biggest argument against traditional power generators is the environmental argument. The Climate is changing - most agree on that point! The difference is what is causing the change. I'm more of the cyclical change believer. 20-years ago, many were pushing a coming Ice age. Much depends on your political point of view. 

    16Reply
  • Robert Freeborn
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Bellingham, WA · Member since 2017 · 427 posts · 182 votes
    5y

    @Jim Cummings i don’t intend to dive into the political, but from the reports I’ve seen most of the power issues are coming from the natural gas plants having equipment freeze and gas freeze in non-insulated pipes. Some of the wind terbines froze because the heating elements weren’t purchased, etc

    Having grown up in Texas, yes, this sort of thing is rare.

    I guess my question was more aimed at what sorts of opportunities people see coming out of this. For instance, it appears that there may be a lot of dams fed homes out there. Does anyone plan to increase their off market prospecting?

    13Reply
  • Greg H.Pro Member
    Moderator
    Broker/Flipper · Austin, TX · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y

    This is a once in a generation occurrence.  Most of the broken pipe fixes are going to cost a few hundred dollars and life will be back to normal next week when temperatures approach 70 degrees. 

    5Reply
  • Jim Cummings
    Residential Real Estate Broker · College Station, TX · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 969 votes
    5y

    @Robert Freeborn. Didn't mean to delve off into politics. I'm not aware of any "Dam Fed" Homes that you mention. 

    This "Vortex" Weather phenomenon is rare, so, my gut instinct that little will change as result of the weather. There will be lots of finger pointing and wagging of tongues - but very little action. HOPE I'm wrong!  

    1Reply
  • Robert Freeborn
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Bellingham, WA · Member since 2017 · 427 posts · 182 votes
    5y

    @Jim Cummings

    Damaged! Not “dam fed”. I apologize, I post on my phone and missed that grammatical error.

    0Reply
  • Jim Cummings
    Residential Real Estate Broker · College Station, TX · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 969 votes
    5y

    @Robert Freeborn. I doubt there will be any appreciable number of "Damaged" homes. 

    Most damage (in Central Texas) was done to people's wallet for increased utility costs, possibly some burst pipes and possible roof damages. We'll see an influx of roofing and handyman types with flyers wanting to do a FREE Estimate for any damages. 

    Can't speak for the DFW or Panhandle areas.  

    1Reply
  • Account Closed
    Investor · Singapore · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Jim Cummings:

    @Robert Freeborn. I've lived in Central Texas (Austin > College Station) continuously since the late 80's, and this is the third "Freak Weather" system I've experienced. You grit your teeth for a few days, add another layer of clothing - survive it, and continue on with life as before. 

    IMO, we need to invest in more traditional power systems known to be reliable. Wind is great most of the year in Texas - but obviously susceptible to cold weather, it's also an eyesore IMO, takes up vast amounts of land, much the same thoughts about Solar Farms. So called environmentally friendly power generation systems have a place - but we shouldn't place our main power generation into these type of systems until their reliability is more of a fact and less of a promise.   

    The biggest argument against traditional power generators is the environmental argument. The Climate is changing - most agree on that point! The difference is what is causing the change. I'm more of the cyclical change believer. 20-years ago, many were pushing a coming Ice age. Much depends on your political point of view. 

    Despite the lies and propaganda perpetuated the republicans and the fossil fuel industry wind power has nothing to do with the Texas power failures. https://www.nytimes.com/2021/0...

    Wind provides less than 10% of Texas electricity. The natural gas plants are the ones failing. On top of that the grid is isolated from the rest of the country (decision made by political cowboys) so no extra power can be delivered. Solar actually would be reliable in extreme cold unless there is heavy snow in which case the panels would get covered.

    Climate change is real and should be factored into investing I think. Low lying areas in coastal towns, anywhere susceptible to hurricanes (ie anything in Houston or the Gulf coast) is risky. Extreme cold is also more likely and maybe that means better winterizing  homes. 

    0Reply
  • Joe SplitrockPro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
    5y

    Moderators Note: No political commentary here. 

    Bottom line, who would be prepared for prolonged sub-freezing temperatures in Texas, California, Florida or any other place that typically doesn't see those temperatures? My state was prepared for the arctic blast because we get that type of weather every year. Our infrastructure is designed for it. 

    The reality is that it has been colder in Texas before. It just doesn't happen very often and therefore the systems were not prepared for it.

    As far as weather patterns, humans are very arrogant to believe we know if historical weather patterns were more or less volatile than they are today. The study of earth temperature uses ice cores to approximate global temperature over thousands of years. That is annual approximation of global temperature, not daily high or low in a specific location. There is no way to know how cold it was on a particular day in Texas 1000 years ago, or even 500 years ago. Modern temperature recording didn't really begin until around 1880. Earth is over 4 billion years old, so we only know the daily temperatures in Texas for around 140 of 4 billion years. 

    What scientific data tells us is that 1899 recorded some of the coldest temperatures in Texas. If you look at coldest records set in Texas, most of them are prior to 1950:

    https://www.weather.gov/maf/Th....

    Nobody can predict the future. It is possible there could be another cold spell next winter that is worse. It is also possible it may not happen again for 50 years or 100 years. 

    Unfortunately people try to make science a political debate. Like any political debate, people ignore the facts that don't support their narrative. It is convenient to blame a political party, blame an energy source or blame humans in general for destroying the planet. 

    What I have observed is to not worry about the "known risk". Now that cold temperatures have shown cracks in the Texas energy grid, the risk of that happening again actually decreases. It is now a known deficiency, which means it can be addressed. It is like when a city floods and they raise the levy. That makes it less likely the city will flood in the future. 

    As others mentioned, the temperatures will rise and the damage will be repaired. Texas will emerge stronger because of it.

    14Reply
  • Matthew Rolf
    Insurance Agent · TX · Member since 2018 · 362 posts · 175 votes
    5y

    I'll continue to invest.  I had a hot water pipe burst at my rental.  It was $300 to repair the pipe and $300 to fix the sheetrock.  In the bigger picture, not a big deal.  I think Texas will continue to be a good state to invest in based on US population shifting south + landlord friendly laws.

    7Reply
  • Rick Pozos
    Wholesaler, Rehabber and Landlord · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    5y

    @Robert Freeborn if you are looking for the doomsday scenario, its not here.

    As mentioned above, a few hundred to a few thousand $$ and things are back to normal. It was not a hurricane that swept buildings roof's off. It was not a flood because the whole city is 10ft above sea level or below sea level.

    People are mad and lashing out on social media about red and blue. But that is what people do nowadays. When they can not stay at 78degrees In their home ALL winter long, its going to get ugly. 

    Again, as mentioned above, we put a couple extra layers on, pay to get the pipes fixed or insulated better and go on with our lives. Keep on moving, nothing to see here.

    5Reply
  • John Dean
    Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX (dallas tx) · Member since 2020 · 30 posts · 25 votes
    5y

    @Greg H. Things must be different in your part of Texas. I can’t find any plumbing materials here, almost all of my properties have 1 or more pipe

    burst, the city main lines are freezing in some areas, some condo and apartment complexes have been evacuated, etc. There’s a run on materials as well as a shortage of contractors. Any contractor that takes a $300 job right now is probably doing it for friends and family.

    6Reply
  • Robert Freeborn
    OP
    Real Estate Agent · Bellingham, WA · Member since 2017 · 427 posts · 182 votes
    5y

    @John Dean and this is why I brought it up. While I’m glad so many are not having issues, I’m seeing severe damage In many videos.

    I think this could generate some great wholesale and buying opportunities. I was hoping to generate a conversation mostly based around that and what other opportunities people are seeing, or not seeing, out of it.

    2Reply
  • John Dean
    Rental Property Investor · Dallas, TX (dallas tx) · Member since 2020 · 30 posts · 25 votes
    5y

    @Robert Freeborn you are correct there is severe damage. Some cities in North Texas don’t have clean water right now. I think the issue is going to be a bit bigger in that even if you find a buying opportunity you will never be able to estimate costs because all material costs are multiples higher and contractors are in short supply. If you bought and held vacant for 6-12 months it could be a good opportunity.

    1Reply
  • Joe S.Pro Member
    Investor · San Antonio · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    5y

    @Robert Freeborn I think that would be a great idea for fewer people to invest in Texas. :-)

    I think people should sell out now! If anyone needs an avenue to unload their Texas problem properties I might know of someone that could take those Burdensome Texas located properties. wink wink. 😎

    5Reply
  • Bruce Lynn
    Real Estate Broker · Coppell, TX · Member since 2011 · 5k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y

    Put every plumber on your move up and cash buyer investor list.  They're going to be rich after this year.

    Might also add pool repair companies....looks like lots of pumps gave out and filters cracked.

    3Reply
  • Cody L.
    Rental Property Investor · San Diego, CA · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y

    "What will come from Texas Artic Vortex"

    Uh, some cold weather for a few days?  This won't change values at all.  The fact you might have a once in a decade freak even that knocks out power/water for a few days is already 'baked in"


    Just like an earthquake in socal or tornado in Tennessee won't change the market. 

    2Reply
  • Joe SplitrockPro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Joe S.:

    @Robert Freeborn I think that would be a great idea for fewer people to invest in Texas. :-)

    I think people should sell out now! If anyone needs an avenue to unload their Texas problem properties I might know of someone that could take those Burdensome Texas located properties. wink wink. 😎

     I thought everyone just left California and moved to Texas? Where will they go now? 

    1Reply
  • Jordan MoorheadBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    5y

    @Robert Freeborn like @Jim Cummings I predict that next week it will warm up, people will yell that Abbot did this and then Samsung will announce they're building their next factory in Austin and everyone will forget it got cold that one time

    [email protected]512-888-9122
    The Moorhead Team5140 Reviews
    WebsiteView Page
    3Reply
  • Jennie Ballard
    Brazoria County · Member since 2020 · 69 posts · 24 votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @John Dean:

    I can’t find any plumbing materials here, almost all of my properties have 1 or more pipe

    Get accounts set up with commerical supply houses not the big box stores that consumers use. As of 4pm today Romar in DFW has CPVC and pex in stock. Just got $1200 of 2" CPVC pipe and fittings for my W2 job. romarsupply.com

    1Reply
  • Greg H.Pro Member
    Moderator
    Broker/Flipper · Austin, TX · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Robert Freeborn:

    @John Dean and this is why I brought it up. While I’m glad so many are not having issues, I’m seeing severe damage In many videos.

    I think this could generate some great wholesale and buying opportunities. I was hoping to generate a conversation mostly based around that and what other opportunities people are seeing, or not seeing, out of it.

    Of course we are seeing devastating videos because the media feels the need to sensationalize events for ratings.  However, most of those are covered by insurance.  A hurricane tends to create more buying opportunities as damage is often not coverage as many do not have insurance to cover the damage

    3Reply
  • Greg H.Pro Member
    Moderator
    Broker/Flipper · Austin, TX · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @John Dean:

    @Greg H. Things must be different in your part of Texas. I can’t find any plumbing materials here, almost all of my properties have 1 or more pipe

    burst, the city main lines are freezing in some areas, some condo and apartment complexes have been evacuated, etc. There’s a run on materials as well as a shortage of contractors. Any contractor that takes a $300 job right now is probably doing it for friends and family.

    I have rentals in all quadrants of Texas.  Maybe my time in the military trained me to be prepared but I sent my handymen and contractor some shark bites via Amazon and made sure they had a bit of CPVC just in case. All I have had is a small shower drip and a grey water line that runs on the outside of a house crack so i am fortunate

    On a side note, I own a bunch of rentals in a small community that had no power for almost 48 hours(made the national news).  All of my properties there have mechanical gas heaters or a fireplace so all my tenants fortunately had some level of heat

    1Reply
  • Shawn Bhatti
    Investor · Miami, FL · Member since 2020 · 80 posts · 66 votes
    5y

    As a National Weather Service Meteorologist, I can tell you that this event will be remembered for a long time, however will have little impact on the long-term real estate outlook for metro portions of Texas. As @Joe Splitrock already stated, for any particular city, there is a direct correlation between damage caused and rarity of the event occurring. Here in Miami, we have some of the most stringent building codes in the United States owing to the frequency at which we experience tropical cyclones. Imagine if (even) a category 1 hurricane made landfall over Boston, MA. We are talking massive devastation because the frequency at which the event is experienced is very rare and the buildings are not designed to handle such an event. Likewise, if ice were able to form on the roadways of south-central Florida, it would likely be more devastating than anywhere else in the continental United States. Anomalously destructive weather events are bound to occur at some point for any given region. The best way to prepare as a real estate investor is to know the reasonable worst-case scenario for your area and plan/insure accordingly.

    7Reply
  • Alvin Sylvain
    Los Angeles · Member since 2018 · 464 posts · 471 votes
    5y

    What'll happen is that a whole plethora of California ex-pats will say to themselves, IT'S FRIKKEN COLD DOWN HERE! NOBODY SAID IT WOULD GET SO FRIKKEN COLD! and then they'll catch the very next plane back to California.

    dammit.

    2Reply
  • Greg H.Pro Member
    Moderator
    Broker/Flipper · Austin, TX · Member since 2013 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y

    @Shawn Bhatti

    I was born and raised in West Palm Beach and was there THE day it snowed.  Had to have been 1977 or 1978.  Fortunately, we live in Austin part time but happened to be at our place in Western Colorado the last week and avoided all of the mess.  Actually was able to play golf 3 days out here with temps in the 40s-50s

    1Reply
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